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Stock Tales are concise, holistic stock reports across wider spectrum of sectors. Updates will not be periodical but based on significant events or change in price.
Stock_____
TALES
September 14, 2020
ICIC
I S
ecurit
ies –
Retail E
quit
y R
esearch
Stock T
ale
s
September 14, 2020
CMP: | 597 Target: | 735 (23%) Target Period: 12 months
KPR Mill (KPRMIL)
BUY
Well placed to ride apparel export opportunity
KPR Mill is among select vertically integrated textile players in India (from
fibre to fashion) that has displayed consistent revenue growth and positive
operating margin trajectory with strong return ratios. The strength of its
integrated model is visible in its FY12-20 financial performance with
revenue, PAT CAGR of 13%, 35%, respectively, average EBITDA margin of
~18%, average RoCE of 15%+. KPR has transformed itself from a
commoditised yarn player (capacity: 104000 tonnes) to value-added
garment manufacturer & is currently among largest garment manufacturers
in India (capacity: 115 million pieces). It has a healthy balance sheet with D/E
ratio comfortably placed at 0.4x. KPR through its strong promoter pedigree
and long standing relationship with marque clients is expected to tide over
the situation better than small peers.
Garmenting division to benefit from shift of business from China
Global brands in textile, apparel are exploring competitive sourcing
alternatives to China. India, owing to its competence due to abundant
availability of raw material (cotton, manmade yarn/fabric), strong pool of
skilled labour at competitive wages can garner a higher share of global
garmenting business. Global brands have shown higher preference for
vertically integrated garment manufacturers who have control over quality,
delivery timelines. KPR, with a vertically integrated model from yarn to
garmenting seems well set to benefit from shift in demand from China to other
low cost Asian countries. We expect garmenting business to post 10% CAGR
in FY20-23E, share of garments in revenue to move up from 42% to 45%.
Higher value addition to aid improvement in margins
The company has over the last two years invested in more than doubling its
processing capacity to 22000tpa. It has also added 7500 TPA of printing
capacity. This would enable KPR to produce more value added products
and, hence, garner higher realisation for its products thereby improving its
operating margin profile. Furthermore, the company has entirely upgraded
its conventional yarn capacity to value added yarn (Compact, Melange,
Vortex yarn) that fetch higher realisations. KPR is also expected to benefit
from the improved scenario for the sugar business. For Q1FY21, sugar
business revenues doubled to | 113 crore driven by near 2x sugar volumes
and commencement of the ethanol plant (steady profitability) with EBIT
margins improving 310 bps YoY. We build in EBITDA CAGR of 11% in FY20-
23E with margin expansion of 140 bps to 20.0% in FY23E.
Valuation & Outlook
KPR’s strategy of focusing on high asset turnover garmenting segment for
future growth provides scope for improvement in return ratios over the
medium to longer term. We like KPR as a structural long term story to play
the apparel export space. We continue to remain positive on KPR due to its
competitive advantages due to lower power & labour cost, vertically
integrated operations, focus on value-added products and robust balance
sheet. The recent ethanol capacity addition is likely to reduce volatility in the
sugar business. We ascribe BUY rating to the stock with a target price of
| 735 (10.0x FY23E EPS).
Key Financial Summary
Particulars
Price Chart
Research Analyst
Bharat Chhoda
Cheragh Sidhwa
Par ticu lars Am o u n t
Market Capita lisation (| crore) 4,108.6
Tota l Debt (FY 20) (| crore) 787.6
Cash (FY 20) (| crore) 154.2
EV (| crore) 4,742.0
52 Week H / L 715 /316
Equity Capita l (| crore) 34.4
Face V alue (|) 5.0
050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000
0100200300400500600700800900
Sep-1
7
Jan-1
8
May-
18
Sep-1
8
Jan-1
9
May-
19
Sep-1
9
Jan-2
0
May-
20
Sep-2
0
KPR BSE Sensex
Source: ICICI Direct Research, Company.
| cro re FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E C AG R (FY20-23E)
Net Sales 3,384.0 3,352.6 3,221.2 3,825.8 4,193.5 7.7%
EBITDA 611.8 621.9 631.3 738.4 838.7 10.5%
A djus ted PA T 334.9 376.7 354.3 438.2 506.6 10.4%
P/E (x) 12.3 10.9 11.6 9.4 8.1
EV /EBITDA (x) 8.0 7.6 7.4 6.1 5.2
RoCE (% ) 19.6 19.6 18.6 21.0 22.6
RoE (% ) 18.7 20.2 16.9 18.4 19.2
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 2
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
Company Background
KPR Mill has 12 manufacturing units and employs a work force of ~ 22000
people. It has an annual capacity to produce 104000 MT of yarn, 40000 MT
of fabric and 115 million readymade knitted apparel. The company also has
an embedded fabric processing capacity of 22000 MT and a sophisticated
printing division with a capacity to print 7500 MT per annum (one lakh high
fashion garments per day). KPR has also invested in captive power plants
and has 66 wind mills with a total green power capacity of 61.9 MW; co-gen
cum sugar plant with capacity of 30 MW & 5000 TCD and ethanol plant
capacity of 90 KLPD. It has recently forayed into the retail business with the
launch of its own brand ‘FASO’ producing first of its kind organic cotton
men’s innerwear and athleisure products.
The key segments are yarn and fabric (42% of sales), garment (42%), sugar
(10%) and others (6%).The revenue share of yarn and fabric has reduced
from 79% in FY14 to 42% in FY20 and is expected to go further down as the
company plans to add capacity in garmenting and increase the captive
utilisation of yarn and fabric. For yarn, captive utilisation is at 30% while for
fabric captive utilisation is at 60%. The revenue share of garment has
increased from 16% in FY14 to 42% in FY20.
Exhibit 1: Segmental revenue share trend
Source: ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 2: Geographic revenue share
Source: ICICI Direct Research
14 18 16 15 8 5 4
48 40 41 4344 43 38
16 20 26 29 33 40 42
10 11 8 7 9 7 109 8 9 7 6 5 5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
%
Fabric Yarn Garment Sugar Others
72 67 64 61 60 57 58
28 33 36 39 40 43 42
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
%
Domestic Exports
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 3
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
Exhibit 3: Presence across textile value chain
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Investment Rationale
India well placed to play global apparel export opportunity
The US and EU have been major importers of apparel and constitute ~60%
of global apparel imports. China has been the dominant exporter in global
apparel trade. However, China has been challenged by rising production
costs, which has resulted in its apparel export share declining from 42% in
CY10 to ~ 33% in CY18. China has been losing market share both in the US
and EU markets with its share in the US market declining from ~39% in CY10
to 31% in CY2018. In EU, its market its share has declined from 45% in CY10
to ~ 33% in CY18. With global brands looking at diversifying their sourcing
partnerships and reducing dependence on China, India can emerge as a
potential beneficiary owing to its strong presence across the textile value
chain. India’s apparel exports are currently at ~US$16 billion (~4% share in
global exports), of which ~60% is to US and EU markets. Even a marginal
shift of global apparel trade share in favour of India can provide immense
opportunity to Indian apparel exporters and provide sustained growth
opportunity to the sector.
Exhibit 4: China dominates textile exports. figures in US$ billion
Source: Wazir Advisors, ICICI Direct Research
C o u n try T e xtile Exp o r ts Sh are 2018 (%) Ap p are l Exp o r ts Sh are 2018 (%) T o tal Exp o r ts
China 128.8 36.5 158.1 33.6 286.9
India 21.4 6.1 15.6 3.3 37.0
V ietnam 7.8 2.2 28.7 6.1 36.5
Bangladesh 1.9 0.5 32.9 7.0 34.8
USA 21.9 6.2 5.3 1.1 27.2
G ermany 15.7 4.5 24 5.1 39.7
Spain 5.0 1.4 14.4 3.1 19.4
RO W 150.2 42.6 191.6 40.7 341.8
Tota l 352.7 470.6 823.3
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 4
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
Exhibit 5: Trends of Indian textile exports
Source: Wazir Advisors, ICICI Direct Research
Lower factor cost strengthens India’s global competitive
positioning
Over the last few years, Indian apparel capacities have been modernised and
major Indian players in the apparel trade have invested in capacity building.
Owing to abundant availability of labour and other factors of production at
competitive rates, India, in recent years, has emerged as a cost competitive
base for manufacturing. Although lending rates in India may be on the higher
side compared to China (~7%), Vietnam (~8%) and Ethiopia (~9%), they
are better than its major competitor in the region with lending rates in
Bangladesh close to ~14%. On the water cost front, India is among the
lowest in the world and significantly cheaper than China. Compared to other
destinations that are being scouted by global apparel players as sourcing
alternative to China, India is favourably positioned in terms of ease of doing
business ranking, better compliance and political stability. However, major
advantage for Bangladesh and Ethiopia over India is their duty free access
to the EU. The labour cost in India is highly competitive in the region and
significantly lower than China.
India is a viable and competitive alternative to China. The Indian textile
industry possesses inherent and unique strength such as abundance of raw
material, presence of entire value chain, competitive manufacturing costs
and availability of skilled manpower. Also, India possesses a large and
growing domestic market, higher proportion of young population, rising per
capita income, higher disposable income and increased preference for
brands and enhanced organised retail landscape, which provide sustainable
growth prospects for large apparel players.
Exhibit 6: Factor cost comparison between India and other competing countries
Source: Wazir Advisors, ICICI Direct Research
3 4 5 5 5102 4 4 4 4
79
1216 16 15
32
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY06 FY11 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY26
US
D B
n
Fabric Yarn Apparels
Param e te r Un it C h in a In d ia Ban g lad e s h V ie tn am Eth io p ia
Labour Cos t US$/month 550-600 160-180 110-120 190-200 80-90
Pow er Cos t US$/K WH 0.15-0.16 0.10-0.12 0.09-0.12 0.08-0.10 0.03-0.04
Water Cos t Usc/m3 55-60 16-20 20-22 50-80 30-40
Ease of doing bus iness ranking Rank 31.0 63.0 168.0 70.0 159.0
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 5
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
Scaling garmenting capacity to cater to global demand
Over the last six years, KPR has strategically focused on increasing
capacities in the garmenting businesses. In FY14-20, KPR’s garment capacity
has increased at a CAGR of ~20% and is currently at 115 million pieces.
Share of garment revenue has increased from 16% in FY14 to 42% in FY20.
The expansion of the garmenting capacity is in line with its stated strategy
of investing in high asset turnover businesses. The asset turnover of the
garmenting business is typically 2x the fabrics business yielding higher
return on assets employed. Also, the garmenting business tends to have
higher visibility and connect with the consumer aiding in brand building in
the longer term. The company strategically has a vertically integrated
alignment. On the back of this, higher emphasis on garmenting would create
multiple levers for improvement.
Exhibit 7: Strong capacity addition in garmenting
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Ethiopian garment capacity to provide better margins
After setting a strong garment capacity footprint in India, KPR has
geographically diversified by setting a garment capacity of 10 mn pieces in
Ethiopia at an investment of ~ | 30 crore. The Ethiopian plant is expected to
be more profitable than existing Indian garment plants of KPR owing to a)
labour cost being ~50% lower than India and b) power cost ~70% cheaper
than India and c) capex requirement being ~50% less than India as land &
building will be on 25+ years lease from the government. Also, it would
enhance the competitiveness of KPR with global peers (Bangladesh and
Vietnam) as there is no import duty in the US and EU from Ethiopia (vs. 10%,
15% duty in EU, US, respectively, from India). The Ethiopian foray provides
KPR a cost efficient alternative. If this initial capacity is successful, KPR can
ramp up the capacity quickly as construction work is already done by the
Ethiopian government and KPR would just have to set up the machinery and
train the labour for any additional capacity expansion. As on Q1FY21,
capacity utilisation was at ~50%. The management expects a ramp-up in
H2FY21.
63.0 63.0 63.0 59.0
95.0 95.0 95.0
115.0 115.0 115.0125.0
135.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Pie
ce
s in
million
Annual Capacity Utilisation rate
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 6
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
Vertical integration provides cost advantage, enhances its
positioning as preferred supplier to global brands
KPR is among the few fully integrated textile players with a presence across
the textile value chain from yarn to garmenting. The vertically integrated
model enables KPR to 1) maintain consistency in quality by constant
monitoring and control over the product quality at every stage, 2) also due
to an integrated model and large scale of operations, it is able to mitigate
the volatility in raw material price and, hence, generate better operating
margins than peers. The strength of KPR’s business model can be gauged
by the fact that its 10-year average EBITDA margin is ~18%, which is
commendable considering the volatile nature of the textile business. 3)
Control over the value chain enables KPR to cut down the lead time (15-20
days) and provide timely delivery to both domestic and international clients
thereby positioning itself as a preferred vendor for clients.
Exhibit 8: Presence across textile value chain
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Proximity to Tirupur textile cluster enables lower logistics cost
and ready market
Tirupur in Tamil Nadu is known as the knitwear capital of India. Availability
of labour at low cost and locational advantage with significant government
investment in the region to support the textile industry has led to many
textile units being set up in the region across the textile value chain. The
region also has units that cater to processing, sewing, embroidery, etc. All
KPR’s facilities are strategically located around a 50 km radius from Tirupur.
This helps KPR to reduce logistics cost as it is in close proximity to the
customer base as most reputed global brands source their requirements
from the Tirupur region.
Sourcing Raw
materials
(Key RM: Cotton)
Spinning
(Yarn: 100000 MT,
Viscose: 4000 MT)
Knitting grey fabric
(40000 MT)
Processed Fabric
(22000 MT, Fabric
Printing: 7500 MT)
Knitted Garments:
100% exports
(India: 105 million
pieces, Ethiopia: 10
million pieces)
Retail
(Forayed into mens
innerwear segment)
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 7
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
Captive power capacity enhances self-sufficiency, provides
continuity to operations
Power cost is among the major costs for KPR and Tamil Nadu (where
majority of KPR plants are located) earlier had been a power deficit state
leading to higher cost and impact on operation owing to power cuts. The
power cost as a percentage to sales had increased from~3% in FY14 to 5%
in FY16. In order to reduce dependence on the state power grid and be more
self-sufficient, it has installed wind mills at four locations in Tamil Nadu. The
total wind power capacity is 61.92 MW (with 66 wind mills). It has
additionally invested in a co-gen cum sugar plant with a capacity of 30 MW
and 5,000 TCD in Bijapur, Karnataka. The company operates this business
under its wholly owned subsidiary KPR Sugar Mill Ltd. This enables the
company to hedge itself from any power shortage that may be faced in Tamil
Nadu. The company has been able to bring down the power cost (as
percentage of sales) from ~ 5% in FY16 to 3.8% in FY20 thereby lowering
the operating cost and supporting EBITDA margins.
Exhibit 9: Power cost trend (% to sales)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Foray into branded innerwear
After reaching sizeable scale in yarn and fabrics and building garmenting
capacity of 115 million pieces, KPR has ventured into the branded innerwear
business with the launch of own brand ‘ FASO’. The company is planning to
expand its presence via asset light MBO model and online channel. The
product would initially cater to menswear, would be launched in southern
India and then gradually expanded to other regions depending on customer
acceptance. The company is targeting products in the mid-premium
category (lower price points than Jockey). As per industry reports, the men’s
innerwear market is currently pegged at | 11000 crore and is expected to
grow at CAGR of 7% to | 21800 crore by 2028. We have not factored in the
revenues from the innerwear segment in our estimates as it is currently at a
nascent stage and would include the same once there is more data or
commentary from the management related to the progress of the business
venture. The segment, though crowded with a host of domestic and
international brands, provides an opportunity for growth considering that
athleisure and comfort wear, as a segment, has shown strong growth
potential. The company has set an internal target to reach sales worth | 100
crore over the next three to four years.
3.0
4.2
5.0
3.5 3.6 3
.9
3.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
FY
14
FY
15
FY
16
FY
17
FY
18
FY
19
FY
20
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 8
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
Financials
Garment capacity addition to fuel revenue growth
KPR Mill is one of India’s largest knitted garment manufacturers, boasting
capacity of 115 million pieces per annum. The nationwide lockdown had a
material impact on performance in Q1FY21 with garmenting volumes
declining 46% to 15.5 million pieces. However, given the swift recovery in
knitted products (leisure wear, innerwear) and inherent strength of the
business model, the company has revived to its monthly run-rate of 10.0
million pieces. KPR has a healthy order book of | 500 crore till October-
November 2020 with new order inflows expected from September 2020
onwards. Subsequently, the company expects to exit FY21E with marginal
growth in the garmenting segment.
Going forward, the company is aiming to enhance its capacity by 30-40
million pieces over the next two to three years. Furthermore, it has already
augmented its fabric capacity from 27000 tonnes to 40000 tonnes for captive
consumption. With the increase in garmenting capabilities, KPR is
positioning itself as the most preferred sourcing partner in India. We expect
overall revenues to increase at 8% CAGR in FY20-23E with majority of the
growth driven by garmenting segment (10% CAGR with share of garmenting
to increase by 300 bps to 45% by FY23E). We bake in steady revenue CAGR
of 4% in the yarn & fabric segment on the back of a gradual increase in
captive consumption for garmenting segment. We expect revenues from the
sugar segment to be buoyed by ethanol sales. For Q1FY21, KPR’s revenues
from ethanol were at | 40 crore. For FY21, we factor in revenues to the tune
of | 150 crore.
Exhibit 10: Revenue trend
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
1268.5 1664.7
2371.0
2565.8
2591.1
2816.6
3024.4
3384.0
3352.6
3221.2 3825.8
4193.5
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
3500.0
4000.0
4500.0
FY
12
FY
13
FY
14
FY
15
FY
16
FY
17
FY
18
FY
19
FY
20
FY
21E
FY
22E
FY
23E
| cro
re
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 9
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
EBITDA expected to grow at CAGR of 11% in FY20-23E
KPR strategically has a vertically integrated alignment from yarn to apparels.
This has translated into lower RM volatility and steady EBITDA margins over
the years. On an average, the company, over the last 10 years, has
consistently reported healthy EBITDA margins of ~18%. Higher proportion
of garmenting enhances overall margin profile as the segment yields
margins in the range of 20-22% while yarn division derives ~14-15%
EBITDA margins. In recent times, the company has entirely upgraded its
conventional yarn capacity to value added yarn (Compact, Melange and
Vortex yarn), which fetch higher realisations. Also, KPR has established a
new advanced technology knitting factory housing the contemporary
imported knitting machines. This would help produce value added products.
Further, the new ethanol business would provide stability to the margin
profile in the sugar segment. We build in EBITDA CAGR of 11% in FY20-23E
with margin expansion of 140 bps to 20.0% in FY23E. Subsequently, PAT is
estimated to grow at a CAGR of 11% over the estimated period.
Exhibit 11: EBITDA margin trend
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 12: PAT trend
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
422.2 437.3 469.6563.3 575.2 611.8 621.9 631.3
738.4838.7
17.8 17.018.1
20.0
19.0 18.1 18.6
19.619.3
20.0
1616171718181919202021
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
%
| cro
re
EBITDA EBITDA Margin
141.7 173.6210.1
286.8 290.4334.9
376.7354.3
438.2506.6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
| cro
re
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 10
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
Healthy balance sheet; expect to report RoCE of 20%+
KPR has a capital efficient business model, generating healthy gross block
asset T/O ratio of 2x, robust EBITDA margins (18%) and controlled working
capital cycle (average NWC days: 90 days). This has translated into KPR
generating health RoCE of 18%+. In FY20, the company undertook a major
capex plan worth | 296 crore pertaining towards: a) increase in fabric
capacity from 27000 tonnes to 40000 tonnes, b) added viscose yarn capacity
of 4000 tonnes and c) established ethanol plant with capacity of 90 KLPD at
the sugar factory. The new capacities in the yarn and fabric division are
mainly towards the requirements of new garmenting facilities (to add 30-40
million pieces). With no major capex in the near term (incremental
garmenting capacity requires lower capex) and improvement in FCF, we
expect a further reduction in total debt (from 0.4x in FY20 to 0.2x by FY22E).
We expect KPR to generate cumulative FCF worth | 950 crore in FY21-23E.
We anticipate RoCE will improve 300 bps to 23% in FY23E.
Exhibit 13: Working capital trend
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 14: Return ratio trend
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 15: Debt/equity ratio trend
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
69.1
77.3
108.6
77.9
110.0
105.0
100.0
44.2
50.6
57.0
48.3
55.0
45.0
45.0
31.3
30.8
24.0
14.4 23.0
20.0
20.0
82.0 9
7.2
141.5
111.8 142.0
130.0
125.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Inventory Days Debtor Days Creditor Days Cash cycle
17.4 18.2 19.1
22.3
18.5 18.7 20.2
16.9 18.4 19.2
16.7 17.2 17.2
21.4 20.3 19.6 19.6
18.6 21.0
22.6
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
%
RoE RoCE
1.4
1.2
0.90.8
0.6
0.40.5 0.4
0.30.2 0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21EFY22EFY23E
(x)
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 11
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
Key risk and concerns
Ethiopian operations can face labour and logistic challenges:
Garmenting is a labour intensive business and availability of skilled
labour is a critical factor for the industry. The company has recently
expanded its operation outside India by setting up a garment factory in
Ethiopia. Though the labour cost is cheaper than India, the company
could face challenges in training the work force in the initial stages of
ramping up the capacity. Also, the company’s plant is situated ~ 800 km
from the nearest port, which could pose challenges in managing the
logistic operations
Fluctuation in foreign exchange: KPR’s export revenues constitute ~
40% of total annual revenues. Hence, any significant volatility and
strengthening of the Indian currency can negatively impact KPR Mills’
competitiveness compared to its international peers
Volatility in raw material (cotton) prices: Cotton is the most critical raw
material for KPR Mills. Any significant change in cotton prices can impact
the operating margins of the company. To mitigate this, KPR usually
books the cotton price at the time of signing the contracts with the
clients, thereby mitigating its exposure to raw material price volatility
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 12
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
Financial Summary
Exhibit 16: Profit & loss statement
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 17: Cash flow statement
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 18: Balance Sheet
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 19: Key ratios
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
(Ye ar -e n d March ) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Ne t Sale s 3,352.6 3,221.2 3,825.8 4,193.5
G row th (% ) 10.9 (3.9) 18.8 9.6
Tota l Raw Materia l Cos t 1,987.2 1,836.1 2,219.0 2,432.2
G ross Margins (% ) 40.7 43.0 42.0 42.0
Employee Expenses 394.4 402.6 451.4 465.5
O ther Expenses 349.1 351.1 417.0 457.1
Tota l O perating Expenditure 2,730.7 2,589.8 3,087.4 3,354.8
EBIT DA 621.9 631.3 738.4 838.7
EBITDA Margin 18.6 19.6 19.3 20.0
Interes t 49.7 44.8 36.9 32.0
Depreciation 137.1 145.8 152.7 164.6
O ther Income 36.5 32.8 36.8 34.9
Exceptional Expense - - - -
PBT 471.7 473.5 585.5 677.0
Tota l Tax 95.0 119.2 147.4 170.4
Pro fit Afte r T ax 376.7 354.3 438.2 506.6
(Ye ar -e n d March ) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Prof it/(Loss ) af ter taxation 376.7 354.3 438.2 506.6
A dd: Depreciation 137.1 145.8 152.7 164.6
Net Increase in Current A ssets 341.7 -306.4 -126.1 -114.6
Net Increase in Current L iabilities -88.1 73.9 9.7 23.3
C F fro m o p e ratin g activitie s 767.3 267.7 474.5 579.9
(Inc)/dec in Inves tments -7.0 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8
(Inc)/dec in Fixed A ssets -315.7 -103.0 -132.3 -139.8
O thers 9.8 -2.9 -3.0 -3.2
C F fro m in ve s tin g activitie s -312.9 -105.9 -136.1 -143.8
Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capita l -1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
Inc / (Dec) in Loan -68.7 -98.2 -104.2 -84.9
O thers -304.4 -123.7 -153.0 -252.9
C F fro m fin an cin g activitie s -375.0 -221.9 -257.2 -337.8
Net Cash f low 79.4 -60.1 81.2 98.3
O pening Cash 74.8 154.2 94.1 175.3
C lo s in g C as h 154.2 94.1 175.3 273.6
(Ye ar -e n d March ) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Equity Capita l 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.4
Reserve and Surplus 1,831.5 2,061.8 2,346.6 2,599.9
Tota l Shareholders funds 1,865.9 2,096.2 2,381.0 2,634.3
Tota l Debt 787.6 689.4 585.2 500.3
Non Current L iabilities 54.2 54.6 54.9 55.3
So u rce o f Fu n d s 2,707.7 2,840.2 3,021.1 3,189.9
G ross block 2,014.3 2,113.7 2,246.1 2,385.9
L ess : A ccum depreciation 694.8 840.6 993.3 1,158.0
Net Fixed A ssets 1,319.6 1,273.1 1,252.7 1,227.9
Capita l WIP 6.4 10.0 10.0 10.0
Intangible assets 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Inves tments 9.1 9.2 10.0 10.8
Inventory 715.7 970.8 1,100.6 1,148.9
Cash 154.2 94.1 175.3 273.6
Debtors 443.5 485.4 471.7 517.0
Loans & A dvances & O ther CA 189.7 199.2 209.2 230.1
Tota l Current A ssets 1,503.2 1,749.4 1,956.7 2,169.6
Creditors 132.0 203.0 209.6 229.8
Prov is ions & O ther CL 57.5 60.4 63.4 66.6
Tota l Current L iabilities 189.4 263.3 273.0 296.3
Net Current A ssets 1,313.7 1,486.1 1,683.7 1,873.2
LT L& A , O ther A ssets 57.2 60.0 63.0 66.2
O ther A ssets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ap p licatio n o f Fu n d s 2,707.7 2,840.2 3,021.1 3,189.9
(Ye ar -e n d March ) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Pe r s h are d ata (|)
EPS 54.7 51.5 63.7 73.6
Cash EPS 74.7 72.7 85.9 97.5
BV 271.1 304.6 346.0 382.8
DPS 5.5 18.0 22.3 36.8
Cash Per Share 22.4 13.7 25.5 39.8
O p e ratin g Ratio s (%)
EBITDA margins 18.6 19.6 19.3 20.0
PBT margins 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.1
Net Prof it margins 11.2 11.0 11.5 12.1
Inventory days 77.9 110.0 105.0 100.0
Debtor days 48.3 55.0 45.0 45.0
Creditor days 14.4 23.0 20.0 20.0
Re tu rn Ratio s (%)
RoE 20.2 16.9 18.4 19.2
RoCE 19.6 18.6 21.0 22.6
RoIC 21.0 19.4 22.4 24.9
V alu atio n Ratio s (x)
P/E 10.9 11.6 9.4 8.1
EV / EBITDA 7.6 7.4 6.1 5.2
EV / Sa les 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.0
Market Cap / Revenues 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0
Price to Book V alue 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6
So lve n cy Ratio s
Debt / Equity 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
Debt/EBITDA 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6
Current Ratio 7.1 6.3 6.5 6.4
Q uick Ratio 3.3 2.6 2.5 2.5
ICICI Securities |Retail Research 13
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
RATING RATIONALE
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stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as
the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
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ICICI Direct Research Desk,
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ICICI Securities |Retail Research 14
ICICI Direct Research
Stock Tales| KPR MILL
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