PROCEEDINGS OF THE 25 EUROPEAN SAFETY AND RELIABILITY CONFERENCE, ESREL

2015, ZURICH, SWITZERLAND, 7-10 SEPTEMBER 2015

Safety and Reliability of ComplexEngineered Systems

Editors

Luca PodofilliniPaul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland

Bruno Sudret & Bozidar StojadinovicETH Zurich andETH Risk Center, Switzerland

Enrico Zio

Centrale Supelec and Politecnico di Milano, Italy

Wolfgang KrogerETH Risk Center, Switzerland

CRC PressTaylor & Francis GroupBoca Raton London NewYork Leiden

CRC Press is an imprint of the

Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

A BALKEMA BOOK

Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - Podofillini et al. (Eds)© 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-1-138-02879-1

Table of contents

Preface lvii

Conference organization lix

Introduction lxiii

METHODOLOGY AREAS

Accident and incident investigation and modelling

Traffic accidents: Random or pattern occurrence? 3

R. Andrdsik & M. BU

Accident analysis of Bus Rapid Transit units in Mexico City 4

V. Avalos-Bravo &J.R. Santos-Reyes

Accident analysis by logic programming technique 5

Z.I. Awal & K Hasegawa

Modeling of traffic safety indicators on Polish national road network 6

M. Budzynski, K. Jamroz, W. Kustra & J. Zukowska

Learning from text-based close call data 7

R Hughes, M. Figueres-Esteban & C. van Gulijk

Balancing the risk between railways and roads 8

M. Kaegi & P. Gerber

Accident and incident investigation and modelling in critical infrastructure 9

J.F. Urbanek, A. Oulehlova, H. Malachova, 0. Svoboda &J.J. Urbanek

Research on socio-technical system functional variability based on functional

resonance accident model 10

J. Wu, J. Tian & T. Zhao

Comparative risk assessment

Regionalized risk assessment of accidental oil spills using worldwide data 13

P. Burgherr, M. Spada, A. Kalinina & P. Page

Comparison of Dutch and Russian standards for calculating physicaleffects of hazardous substances 14

A. Leksin, U. Barth, D. Adeulov & R. Mock

Import-adjusted fatality rates for OECD countries caused by fossil fuel accidents 16

R. Lordan, M. Spada & P. Burgherr

The use of Multidimensional Comparative Analysis in the choice of means of transport

for the army 17

R. Milewski & T. Smal

Comparative risk assessment for fossil energy chains: Severe accidents

triggered by natural hazards 18

M. Spada, P. Burgherr & E. Tsianou

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Crises and emergency management

What can we learn about "engineering thinking in extreme situations"

from the testimony by the Fukushima Dai Ichi plant manager? 21

A. Afrouss, A. Portelli & F. Guamieri

Safety management using RBPS to achieve excellence in Petrobras contracts 22

C. Camargo

Issues concerning identification of critical infrastructure systems within

the Baltic Sea area 23

P. Dziula, K Kolowrocki & A. Rosihski

Bridging the gap between long-term planning and short-term requirements:A risk-based perspective 24

H. Fridheim, G.A. Birkemo &F. Rutledal

Organised behaviour in the Swedish fire and rescue service—a case study 25

T. Frykmer, C. Uhr & J. Bergstrom

Computational techniques for the approximation of total system resilience 26

D. Gama Dessavre &J.E. Ramirez-Marquez

Enhancing organizational resilience through virtual communities of practice 27

R. Gimenez, L. Labaka & J. Hernantes

Emergency Response Plans using time scheduling to anticipate the mission time deviation 28

C. Girard, E. Piatyszek & B. Robert

Human behaviour in disaster situations: A paradigm change 29

M. Holenstein & A. Kong

Integration of resilience capabilities for Critical Infrastructures

into the Emergency Management set-up 30

/. Kozine & H. B. Andersen

Planning for crisis response: The case of the population contribution 31

B. I. Kruke

Resilience in a multilevel crisis governance context: A tale of joint

implementation of community, regional, national and EU response capabilities 32

B.I. Kruke & C. Morsut

Developing a tool to assess trainees during crisis management training for major risks 33

D. Lapierre, A. Bony-Dandrieux, F. Tena-Chollet, G. Dusserre, J. Tixier &K. Weiss

Improvement of crisis exercise by the development of scenario design 34

P. Limousin, A. Bony-Dandrieux, J. Tixier & G. Dusserre

Recovery of urban socio-technical systems after disaster: The reactive method

of planning and implementation 35

V. Lubashevskiy, T. Kanno &K Furuta

IT contingency planning for cyber disasters 37

F. Mohle

Preparedness of critical infrastructure subjects in energy sector for crisis situations 38

A. Oulehlova, H. Malachova, O. Svoboda & J. Urbanek

Motivating factors towards willingness to contribute in collaborative tasks:

A crisis cooperation perspective 39

R, Pramanik, H. Hassel & H. Tehler

Competent crisis plan for crisis management of municipalities and complex facilities 40

D. Prochazkova, J. Prochazka, A. Santos & L. Carvalho

Comprehensive approach: An appropriate tool to gain security in the new wars

and complex emergencies? 41

L.K Stene&B.I. Kruke

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DispAtmo project: A framework for crisis managementG. Suliga, V. Idasiak & F Kratz

On a new regulation for municipal emergency preparedness in NorwayK. Wasilkiewicz, A. 0ren, E. Albrechtsen, EG. Almklov & A.B. Mohammad

Quantitative risk assessment

Probabilistic analysis for the handling of radioactive material

B. Alt, H. Kollasko, J. U. Klilgel & P. Steiner

RAMI and PSA application for efficiency of fusion device

R. Alzbutas & R. Voronov

A Total Safety Management framework in the case of a majorhazards plant producing pesticidesO.N. Aneziris, Z. Nivolianitou, M. Konstandinidou, I.A. Papazoglou & G. Mavridis

An approach to assess the safety of automatic dependent surveillance systems

considering aspects of integrity in positional data based on computational simulation

D.B. Sesso, L.F. Vismari & J.B. Camargo Jr.

What is a ship? Ship categories and application of AIS data and accident

statistics for the normalization of ship risk

E. H. Blix, R.J. Bye, E. Kleiven, P. Almklov, T. Kongsvik, H. Gaseidnes & V. Berntsen

Probabilistic risk assessment considering parameter and model uncertainties

F. Brissaud & E. Rosner

Probabilistic resilience assessment of civil systems: Analysis and validityof the PEER framework

M. Broccardo, P. Galanis, S. Esposito & B. Stojadinovic

Probabilistic safety assessment of cold shutdown and refuelling states:

Method development and plant operating states definition

M. Cepin & Z. Bricman Rejc

From HazOp study to automatic construction of Cause Consequence Diagramsfor frequency calculation of hazardous plant states

P.M. Contini, S. Contini, S. Copelli, R. Rota & M. Demichela

Dust explosion of solid/solid mixtures: Application to nuclear decommissioningM. D'Amico, O. Dufaud, L. Perrin, S. Trelat & J.C. Latche

Not losing to the rain: What I learned when I learned about OnagawaW. Epstein

Risk assessment of oil and gas facilities during operational phaseA. Falck, R. Flage & T. Aven

Combined use of composition of probabilistic preferences and entropy

weighting for failure mode prioritizationP.A.A. Garcia, VS. Garcia, P.L.C. Saldanha & C.M.C. Jacinto

Risk assessment and optimization for new or novel processes: Combining task analysiswith 4D process simulation—framework and case studyM. Gerbec, N. Balfe, M. C. Leva, S. Prast & M. Demichela

Transient ignition modelling of gas leaks in enclosed modules

K.E.T. Giljarhus, M.M. Venkatraman, 0. Spangelo, S. Jensen, G.R. Kumaresh &I. Fossan

PSA contribution in development and application of severe accident

management guidelinesP. Groudev, P. Petrova, E. Kichev & K. Mancheva

Risk information for operational decision making in oil and gas operationsS. Haugen, J.E. Vinnem, O. Brautaset, R.J. Bye, O.M. Nyheim,J. Seljelid&B.R. Wagnild

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Application of fuzzy logic for safe autonomous subsea IMR operations 66

J. Hegde, LB. Utne, I. Schjolberg & B. Thorkildsen

Technical issues of PSA for Korean multi-unit nuclear power plants 67

K. Oh, S. Jung, G. Heo & S. Jang

Automatic integration of a Fire PSA model in a Level 1 PSA 68

J. Herb, S. Babst, J. von Linden, G. Mayer, M. Rowekamp & M. Tiirschmann

Quantifying system safety: A comparison of the SBOAT & Safety Barrier Manager tools 69

Z.N.L. Hansen, N.J. Duijm, F. Markert & L. Herbert

Quantifying operational risk exposure by combining incident

data and subjective risk assessments 70

A. B. Huseby & J. Thomsen

Quantitative predictions of blowout events 71

S.L. Isaksen, B.R. Wagnhild & S. John

A contribution to safety analysis of railway CBTC systems using Scola 72

M. Issad, L. Koul & A. Rauzy

Aircraft crash external events analysis: The impact of aircraft flight phasesdelineation on NPP risk assessment 73

D. Kancev, S. Heussen, T. Kozlik &J.U. Kliigel

Probabilistic design accidental load for fire accidents in offshore topside structures 74

M. Kim, G. Kim, J. Jung & W. Sim

Transport of dangerous goods—research on activities carried out by the VoivodeshipRoad Transport Inspectorate 75

R Krawczyszyn & T. Smal

Post Fukushima lesson learned for Probabilistic Safety Assessment 76

M. Kumar, A. Wielenberg & E. Raimond

Probabilistic analysis of cascading events triggered by fire 77

G. Landucci, F. Argenti, A. Tugnoli & V. Cozzani

Complex Human-Machine System unsuccess evolution analysis 78

D. Lee, Q. Feng, Z. Wang & Y. Chen

Probabilities in safety of machinery—elements of a risk model

and comparison with field data 79

H. Moedden

Dynamic barrier management: A case of sand erosion integrity 80

Paltrinieri, S. Hauge & W.R. Nelson

Sensitivity analysis of critical assumptions and methods appliedin Armenian NPP fire PSA model 81

S. Poghosyan, G. Kanetsyan, A. Amirjanyan, R. Bertrand & N. Fabienne

Application of WinPRAISE code for secondary side piping break

frequency assessment in PSA 82

S. Poghosyan, G. Kanetsyan, A. Amirjanyan, J. Ramsey & P. Kohut

Advanced Cryogenic Structural Collapse Analysis (CSCA)—Part I: Cryogenic flow modelling 83

J. Pujol & R.N. Kleiveland

A logic-perspective flaw identifying method under the STAMP framework 84

F. C. Ren, D.M. Zhong & L. Chen

A quantitative risk assessment approach of IMA structure considering the cascading impact 85

EC Ren, L. Chen, T.D. Zhao &Y.C. Sun

Concept of railway transportation system resilience—an introduction 86

F.J. Restel

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First applications of the OECD FIRE database within fire PSA

for nuclear power plants in GermanyM. Rowekamp, M. Tiirschmann, H -P. Berg, W. Werner & A. Werner

Recent and future activities of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency WorkingGroup on RISK assessment (WGRISK)M. Rowekamp, V.N. Dang, R. Gheorghe, J.-M. Lanore&K. Coyne

Influence of storage conditions of liquid fuels on functional parametersin the processes of long-term storageJ. Ryczynski

Integrated PRA methodology to advance fire risk modeling for nuclear power plantsT. Sakurahara, S.A. Reihani, Z. Mohaghegh, M. Brandyberry, E. Kee, S. Rodgers,M.A. Billings & D. Johnson

Atmospheric dense gas dispersion models and their influence in the risk analysisstudies assessment in the scope of the standard CETESB P4.261

M.P. Salazar & M.R. Martins

Airport operations safety assessment with the use of colored Petri nets

J. Skorupski

Fire safety barrier availability analysisJ. Sobral & C. Guedes Soares

Advances in consequence modelingR. Sullivan

Study of leakage of natural gas and distribution of explosive mixture in buildingA. Tulach, M. Mynarz & M. Kozubkovd

Big Data Risk Analysis for rail safety?C. van Gulijk, R Hughes, M. Figueres-Esteban, M. Dacre & C. Harrison

Characterization of the flammability of household materials subjected to highradiative flux

C. Vincent, L. Aprin, C. Longuet, G. Dusserre, L. Ferry, G. Rambaud & F. Sabatini

Station blackout and nuclear safetyA. Volkanovski & M. Peinador

Flight risk assessment in icing conditions based on multivariate extreme value theoryII. Wang, HI Xu, Y. Xue, Z. Li&B.B. Pei

Statistical analysis of the risk of nuclear accidents: New data and extreme

heavy tailed distributions

S. Wheatley, B. Sovacool & D. Sornette

Dynamic reliability and PSA

Framework for assessing integrated site risk of small modular reactors usingdynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment simulation

M. Dennis, M. Modarres & A. Mosleh

Failure root causes analysis of complex systems—Dynamic Fault Tree approachE. Gascard & Z. Simeu-Abazi

A comparison of Dynamic Event Tree methods: Initial results for a chemical batch reactor

DR. Karanki, V.N. Dang, M. T. MacMillan & L. Podofdlini

Hybrid-pair modelling in dynamic reliability: Concepts, tool implementationand applicationsG. Manno, A.S. Zymaris, F. Chiacchio, L. Compagno & D. D'Urso

Dynamic risk assessment of marine systemsB. Rokseth&I.B. Utne

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Quantitative analysis of Dynamic Fault Tree by probabilistic approach 109

Z. Simeu-Abazi, E. Gascard & Y. Sidqi

Quality assessment of the traffic flow management process in the vicinity of the airport 110

A. Florowski & J. Skorupski

Risk control in the well drilling phase: BOP system reliability assessment 111

G. -O. Strand & M.A. Lundteigen

An entropy-driven method for exploring extreme and unexpected accident scenarios in the risk

assessment of dynamic engineered systems 112

P. Turati, N. Pedroni & E. Zio

Foundational issues in risk assessment and management

On the appropriateness of using the ALARP principle in safety management 115

H. B. Abrahamsen & E.B. Abrahamsen

Risk—from concept to decision making 116

A. Hafver, D. V. Lindberg, I. Jakopanec, F.B. Pedersen, R. Flage & T. Aven

Reviewing the state of knowledge on the societal safety and societal

security concepts—an initial modeling effort 117

S. Hoyland

Identifying scientific principles for the concepts of societal safety and societal security 118

S. Hoyland

Hazard/threat identification—using different creative methods to supportthe Anticipatory Failure Determination approach 119

A. Jensen & T. Aven

Risk management methodology for protecting against malicious acts—are

probabilities adequate means for describing terrorism and other security risks? 120

S.H Jore&A. Egeli

From theory to practice: Itinerary of Reasons' Swiss Cheese Model 121

J. Larouzee & F. Guarnieri

Separating variability from uncertainty when treating critical assumptions in risk assessments 122

D. V. Lindberg, A. Hafver, I. Jakopanec, F.B. Pedersen, R. Flage & T. Aven

Risk in the safety sciences: Its economic foundations, its hyperbolicgeometry, and its engineering methods 123

M. Mendel, G Renters & P. van Gelder

A framework for conceptualizing the performance of and assessing the risks to systems 124

R. Nateghi & T. Aven

Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison 125

J.E. Shortridge, T. Aven & S.D. Guikema

Maintenance modeling and applications

A decision on replacement policy of systems subjected to imperfect repairs usingmulti-objective genetic algorithms and discrete event simulation 129

K Azevedo, M.C. Moura, ID. Lins & E.L. Droguett

Sparing for availability and sparing for confidence—use for cloud computing services 130

A. Segal & Y Bot

Integrated Logistic Support: RAM, preventive maintenance, inspection, spare partsand life cycle cost optimization based on dynamic programming method 131

E. Calixto, Y. Bot & A. Segal

A comparison of different grouping strategies for multi-component systems 132

H C. Vu, A. Barros & P Do

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Handling reliability big data: A similarity-based approach for clustering a large fleet of assets 133

F. Cannarile, M. Compare, F Di Maio & E. Zio

A low-cost predictive maintenance approach for E/E/PE dependable system 134

A. V. da Silva Neto &P.S. Cugnasca

An application of quasi Monte Carlo methods for the numerical assessment

of maintenance strategies 135

J. Demgne, W. Lair, J. Lonchampt & S. Mercier

Predictive maintenance of selected gas equipment using the RCM methodology 136

J. Kamenicky & J. Zajicek

System dynamics modeling for multi-state systems 137

H.A. Khorshidi, I. Gunawan & M.Y. Ibrahim

Value of information in life cycle management of flood defences 138

W.J. Klerk, F. den Heijer & T. Schweckendiek

Maintenance of a deteriorating control system based upon controller reconfiguration 139

Y. Longeron, A. Grail & A. Barros

Modified periodic replacement with used items at stochastic failure:

Focusing sustainability and profit advantages 140

M.L. Rebaiaia, D. Ait-Kadi, M.A. Jamali& C. Mascle

Reliability modeling and innovative maintenance strategies for offshore wind farms 142

T.P. Nguyen, J. Gyselinck, P.-E. Labeau, P. Lataire & S. Verstraeten

Long-term budget requirements for the replacement of bridges and hydraulic structures 143

R.P. Nicolai & H.E. Klatter

Negotiation of extended warranties for medical equipment 144

B. N. Guedes, M. Moura, I.D. Lins, H.P.S. Zaidan, D. Morais,E. L. Droguett & R. Pascual

Clustering condition-based maintenance for a multi-unit system with aperiodic inspections 145

M. C.A. Olde Keizer & R.H. Teunter

A mathematical model for scheduling preventive maintenanceand renewal projects of infrastructures 146

F. Pargar

Enabling maintenance performance prediction by improving performance indicators 147

C. Rijsdijk & T. Tinga

Assessing the potential for utilising the economies of scale by groupingmaintenance and renewal activities on water infrastructure 148

M.M. Rokstad&RM. Ugarelli

Development of a whole life cost model for offshore wind farms 150

M. Shafiee, F. Brennan & LA. Espinosa

Delayed maintenance modelling with speed restriction for railway section 151

H. Shang, C. Berenguer & J. Andrews

RCM and barrier modelling—application of barrier analysis to railway rolling stock

maintenance optimization 152

T. Nilsen & R. A. Syvertsen

Optimization of load balance of man-hours in preventive maintenance planningwith flexibility in date of execution 153

R. W. Tapia

Concept of controlling for maintenance management performance:A case study of passenger transportation company 154

A. Tubis & S. Werbinska- Wojciechowska

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General framework about graphical analysis for operation management 155

P. Viveros, A. Crespo, L. Barberd, F. Kristjanpoller, R. Stegmaier,E. Johns & T. Grubessich

A new preventive maintenance strategy for warranted products consideringcustomer satisfaction 156

Y.K Wang, Y.L. Liu & Z.X. Liu

Synthesis of issue pertaining to the resilience of logistics systems 157

J. Swieboda & M. Zajac

Mathematical methods in reliability and safety

Community detection and infrastructure criticalityG. Galvan & J. Agarwal

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Importance measures in time-dependent reliability analysis and system designH. Alice, E. Borgonovo, M. Glafi & J. Teich

Optimization of SIL allocation for safety functions implemented over layers of protectionE. Alijagic

Structural reliability analysis of heat production subsystem consideringchangeable external conditions

B. Babiarz & A. Blokus-Roszkowska

Calculating the failure frequency of Boolean systems subject to common random shocks

G Becker, A. Camarinopoulos & L. Camarinopoulos

Automatic fault tree construction via component and feature based modellingA. Bhagavatula, S.J. Dunnett, R Bell &J. Tao

Reliability analysis of conveyor belt with dependent componentsA. Blokus-Roszkowska & K. Kolowrocki

Making importance measures robust

E. Borgonovo

The estimation and prognosis of failure behaviour in product fleets

within the usage phase—RAPP method

S. Bracke & S. Sochacki

Probabilistic assessment of events sequences by a modular approachD. Ionescu, N. Brinzei &J.-F. Petin

Functional safety for safety-related systems: 10 common mistakes

F. Brissaud & D. Turcinovic

Stochastic dynamic analysis and reliability evaluation for a heeling vessel rollingin random beam seas

W. Chai, B.J. Leira & A. Naess

Effects of link weights uncertainties in network community detection:

Application to two electric power systemsCM. Rocco, J.E. Ramirez-Marquez, J. Moronta & D. Gama Dessavre

A game-based optimization approach for fleet Condition-Based Maintenance

oriented to mission reliabilityQ. Feng, Y. Chen, D. Li & Y. Ren

Application of metamodel-based techniques for the efficient seismic

analysis of structural systemsE. Ferrario, N. Pedroni, E. Zio & F. Lopez-Caballero

Stress-strength reliability estimation based on ^-Exponential distribution

R.L.M.S. Filho, EL. Droguett, ID. Lins & M. C. Moura

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A study on a stopping criterion for active refinement algorithms in Kriging surrogate models 177

B. Gaspar, A. P. Teixeira & C. Guedes Soares

Time-dependent covariates in the Transformed Gamma degradation process 178

M. Giorgio, M. Guida & G. Pulcini

Fuzzy expert inference system for selected aircraft on-board unit reliabilityevaluation: Initial project analysis 179J. Zurek & N. Grzesik

Stochastic comparison in reliability analysis 181

M. Kaminska-Zabierowska

Complex system safety and operation cost optimization 182

K. Kolowrocki & J. Soszyhska-Budny

Bottleneck analysis of the gas transmission network using ProGasNet simulator 183

V. Kopustinskas & P. Praks

Safety integrity level-tool: Software calculation tool to determine the important safetyparameters based on IEC 61508 standard 184

0. Krini, J. Krini, A. Krini & J. Borcsok

Proposal for improvement of a reliability growth model 185

J. Krini, O. Krini, A. Krini & J. Borcsok

Multistate system reliability models with independent and dependent redundancyapplication in port transport 186

B. Kwiatiiszewska-Sarnecka

Jump Markov Linear Systems for deterioration modeling and Remaining UsefulLife estimation 187T. Trung Le, F. Chatelain & C. Berenguer

Approach for evaluating the safety of a satellite-based train localisation systemthrough the extended integrity concept 188

C. Legrand, J. Beugin, E. -M. El-Koursi, J. Marais, M. Berbineau & B. Coward

Reliability prediction for multi-failure-state products based on fuzzy Bayesian networks 189

J. Yao & H. Li

Estimation for the parameters of the ^-Weibull distribution by maximum likelihood

and Particle Swarm Optimization 190

1. D. Lins, E. L. Droguett, R. Sales Filho & M. C. Moura

Reliability analysis of a small power supply system with Load Points operating in normal

and emergency modes 191

J. Malinowski

A procedure to develop the EBEPU methodology merging PSA-based assumptionsand BEPU method 192

5. Martorell, A. Ldzaro, I. Marlon, F. Sanchez, IF. Villanueva, S. Carlos & A.I. Sanchez

An approach to address probabilistic assumptions on the availability of safety systemsfor deterministic safety analysis 193

S. Martorell, I. Marion, A. Ldzaro, F. Sanchez, J.F. Villanueva,S. Carlos & A.I. Sanchez

Probabilistic approach of carbonation-induced corrosion initiation via a surrogate model 194

V.D. Ngo, T. de Larrard & F Duprat

Probabilistic extension of failure net based FMEA 195

B. Kaiser & M. Rauschenbach

Maintenance strategy for transport systems telematics 196

M. Siergiejczyk & A. Rosihski

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The influence of wake fraction coefficient determination accuracy

on the propulsion system operating parameters 197

E. Skupien

Modeling of aircraft during take-off and landing operations using Artificial Neural

Networks 198

P. Stanczyk & A. Stelmach

Optimizing paths for networks with multi-objective functions 199

N. Takahashi, H. Yamamoto, T. Akiba, X. Xiao & K. Shingyochi

On data unavailability and file loss in coded data storage systems for the Cloud 200

C. Tanguy, M. Besson, R. Krishnaswamy & A. Grail

On the probability of crossing the line—in wireless networks 201

C. Tanguy & M. Aristarkhov

The research of KD-tree based ICP algorithm for fast data searching in bank modeling 202

X. Wang, L. Xie, X. Ai, S. Wang & J. Liu

Layered complex networks fault propagation effects research based on cellular automata 203

D. Xu, G Zhao & Y Sun

New algorithm for calculation of Fussell-Vesely importance with application of direct

partial logic derivatives 204

M. Kvassay, E. Zaitseva, J. Kostolny & V. Levashenko

New PFD calculation method for complex scenarios—part 1: A hybrid method for handlingmaintenance mobilization time 205

P. Zhang

The problem of sensor location for plant reconfiguration in nonlinear systems 206

A. Zhirabok, A. Shumsky, A. Zuev, E. Bobko & B. Jiang

System reliability

Modelling life extension of safety critical systems 209

J. Andrews & C. Fecarotti

Concurrent safety analysis: A method for information exchange between systems

and safety engineers 210

A. Berres, H. Schumann & H. Spangenberg

Time-dependent PSA model for Emergency Power System of Nuclear Power Plant 211

M. Borysiewicz, A. Kaszko, K. Kowal & S. Potempski

Dependability analysis of level crossing systems using a fuzzy Dynamic Fault Tree approach 212

J. Boudnaya, M. Sallak & A. Mkhida

Smart grid substation availability assessment: Recovered MSS-based approach 213

E. Brezhnev, V. Kharchenko, G. Fesenko, V. Levashenko & E. Zaitseva

An approach of reliability assessment of systems based on graphs models 214

Brinzei &J.F. Aubry

Safety electronic systems reliability monitoring program in nuclear power plant 215

S.D. Costa

Reliability analysis of the controller architecture in software defined networks 216

M. Di Mauro, M. Longo & F. Postiglione

Grid reliability assessment for short-term planning 217

G. Dogan, P.-E Labeau, J.-C. Maun, J. Sprooten, M. Galvez & K. Slews

Common cause failures in discrete dynamic models: Theory and applicationsin the Figaro modelling language 218

R. Donat & M. Bouissou

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Reliability analysis of safety systems subject to Multiple Testing Levels 219

S. Eisinger, L.F Oliveira, L.M. Chame, J.D. Amaral Netto & R. Fernandes

Modelling railway service reliability in the event of failures 220

C. Fecarotti, J. Andrews & R. Remenyte-Prescott

Survival signature-based sensitivity analysis of systems with epistemic uncertainties 221

G. Feng, E. Patelli & M. Beer

A framework of model predictive control for the safety analysis of an electric power microgrid 222

F. Han, I. Prodan & E. Zio

PFDavg and PFH formulas for SIS subject to partial and full periodic tests 223

F. Innal, Y. Liu, M.A. Lundteigen, M. Rausand& A. Barros

Power utility automation cybersecurity: IEC 61850 specification of an intrusion

detection function 225

M. Kabir-Querrec, S. Mocanu, J.-M. Thiriet &E. Savary

Model-based systems engineering and failure analysis: Experience feedback 226

R. Kajdan & V. Idasiak

Reliability assessment of Wireless Sensor Networks for environmental detection 227

R. Kassan, E. Chdtelet, B. El Hassan & A. Sardouk

Concept reliability model of the passenger service at the Wroclaw Airport landside area 229

A. Kierzkowski & T. Kisiel

Reliability of maritime ferry technical system—Monte Carlo simulation assessment 230

K. Kolowrocki, E. Kuligowska & J. Soszynska-Budny

Reliability of maritime ferry technical system—analytical assessment 231

K. Kolowrocki, E. Kuligowska & J. Soszynska-Budny

RAM-C: A novel methodology for evaluating the impact and the criticalityof assets over systems with complex logical configurations 232

F. Kristjanpoiler, P. Viveros, A. Crespo, T. Grubessich & R. Stegmaier

Safety and reliability of data transmission over public networks 233

D. Laskowski, R. Wielemborek & P. Lubkowski

Advanced fault tree synthesis for systems with dynamic aspects 234

N. Mahmud

RAM based metrics for safety assessment of safety systems with applicationto ageing management 235

S. Martorell, I. Marton, P. Martorell, S. Carlos & A.I. Sanchez

Reliability evaluation of power installation in NPP cooling system based

on the Reliability Block Diagram 236

H. D. Mo, Y. Liu, M. Xie&J.J. Long

Impact of wind power on the reliability of electric power supply system 237

C. Nan & G. Sansavini

Supply chain vulnerability assessment methods^—possibilities and limitations 238

T. Nowakowski, S. Werbinska-Wojciechowska & M. Chlebus

System reliability of offshore gas turbine engines with erroneous data conditions 239

L.P. Perera, A. Valland, MM. Machado &D.A.P. Manguinho

Reliability modelling of a hybrid car drive system with advanced Petri

nets considering dependencies and aging 240

T. Rieker, P. Zeiler & B. Bertsche

Analytical formulas of PFD calculation for systems with non-constant failure rates 241

E. Rogova, G. Lodewijks & M.A. Lundteigen

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Risk analysis and reliability improvement in spark ignition enginesassociated with sporadic failures 242

J. C. Salamani &G.F.M. de Souza

An evolutionary decision support system for the top event early detection 243

S. Spampinato, B. Martino, F. Chiacchio, L. Compagno & D. D'Urso

Environmental effectiveness ontology based method for enhancing FMECA 245

B. Sun, Y Li, Q. Feng & Y Ren

A novel genetic algorithm developed on a reduced search space for optimalredundancy allocation in Multi-State Series-Parallel Systems 246

MI Sun, Y.F. Li&E. Zio

Online reliability calculations of power systems with forecasted

and real time weather influence 247

T. Tollefsen, A.B. Svendsen, R.F. Pedersen, P. Skeie, T.M. Lunde & J. Mcelan

Reliability of large two-dimensional nanosystems 248

K Koiowrocki & M. Torbicki

Reliability of the cut flowers' supply chain 249

M. Nowakowska & A. Tubis

Network robustness analysis based on current road incident data 250

R. Voddk, R. Andrasik, M. Bil & J. Sedonik

Building business cases for risk and reliability technologies 251

V. Volovoi

An application oriented layered index method for satellite constellation reliability evaluation 252

X. Wang, Y. Li & Z. Renwang

Study on life assessment technology for marine intermediate bearing 253

Y. Wang & L. Liu

A novel model-based approach for failure modes and effects analysis 254

D.Z. Yang, Y. Ren&Z.L. Wang

Reliability of phase mission linear consecutively-connected systems with

constrained number of gaps 255

H. Yu, J. Yang & Y Zhao

Component reliability allocation and demonstration test planning based on

system reliability confidence limit 256

P. Zeiler & B. Bertsche

Monte Carlo simulation for RAMS applications

Improving performances of the AltaRica 3.0 stochastic simulator 259

B. Aupetit, M. Batteux, A. Rauzy & J.-M. Roussel

Sequential Monte Carlo method to assess the availability of power station layoutswith generator circuit-breakers 260

V. Figliuzzi, F. Cadini, E. Zio & M. Palazzo

Assessment of the improvement achieved in RAMS by a FEV embeddinga powertrain PHMS 261

B. Sedano, D. Astigarraga, P. Baraldi, M. Rigamonti & E. Zio

A spark-based Monte Carlo parallel simulation approach for complexlarge systems reliability assessment 262

Y. Liu, Y Ren, L. Liu & Z. Wang

Modelling of maintenance and inspection policies for marine systems usingMonte Carlo simulation and Delay-Time Analysis 263

D. McNamara, A. Cunningham, R. Riahi, I. Jenkinson & J. Wang

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Estimating the small failure probability of a nuclear passive safety systemby means of an efficient Adaptive Metamodel-based Subset Importance Sampling method 264

N. Pedroni & E. Zio

Application of a maintenance engineering decision method for railway operation:Managing fleet performance, cost, and risk 266

P. Poot-Geertman, B. Huisman & C.F.H. van Rijn

Seismic reliability of urban water distribution networks 268

A. Rasulo

Haruspex: A suite to assess and manage ICT risk by simulating threat agents 269

F. Baiardi, F. Tonelli, D. Pestonesi & V. Angeletti

Comparison of probability distributions for use in reliabilityand maintainability simulation 270

J.K. Visser

A Dynamic Fault Tree method for availability assessment of the repairablegas transmission system 271

G. Zhu, Y. Sun & G. Zhao

Bayesian and statistical methods

Risk assessment of Arctic drilling waste management operationsbased on Bayesian Networks 275

Y.Z. Ayele, J. Barabady & E.L. Droguett

Risk prediction and risk intelligence in aviation—the next generation of aviation

risk concepts from PROSPERO FP7 project 276

D. Baranzini & M. Zanin

A Bayesian method for thermo-electric power generation drought risk assessment 277

B. Bekera & R.A. Francis

On Bayesian approaches for real-time crack detection 278

R. Rocchetta, M. Broggi, E. Patelli & Q. Huchet

Comparison of Weibayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for the reliabilityanalysis of turbine nozzle components with right censored data only 279

F. Cannarile, M. Compare, S. Mattafirri, F. Carlevaro & E. Zio

Response of rescue system to an extraordinary event 280

K. Chmelikova, L. Malerova & J. Sindler

Using Bayesian Network analysis to determine the main accident risk factors in Spain 281

S. Garcia-Herrero, M.A. Mariscal, J.R. Lopez-Garcia & A.S. Cofino

Age-dependent uncertainty in energy network reliability assessment 282

T. Iesmantas & R. Alzbutas

Bayesian Network-based model for bridge network management 283

A. Kosgodagan, O. Morales-Napoles, J. Maljaars, B. Castanier &T.G Yeung

Overview of methods to build Conditional Probability Tables with partial expertinformation for Bayesian Belief Networks 284

L. Mkrtchyan, L. Podoflllini & V.N. Dang

Enhanced Bayesian Network approach to sea wave overtopping hazard quantification 285

S. Tolo, E. Patelli & M. Beer

Robust Bayesian estimation of system reliability for scarce and surprising data 286

G. Walter, A. Graham &F.PA. Coolen

Validity analysis of reliability evaluation method under small sampleand random censoring data 287

A. W. Shen, J.L.Guo&Z.J. Wang

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Reliability model with Wiener process based on Objective Bayesian 288

J. Yang, J. Yao, H. Hu & L. Liu

Maritime accidents risk prediction based on Bayesian Network with interval probabilities 289

G. Zhang & V.V. Thai

Reliability data and reliability testing

Application of vendor data in assessment of Safety Instrumented Functions

in the oil and gas industry 293

R. Aaro, S.L. Isaksen, E. Kvam, LB. Nilsen, M.H. Saltnes &A.V. Thaulow

Contribution for detection of long-time product reliability problems in the use phasebased on analysis of data gathered in online communities 294

S. Bracke, P. Tursch, R. Woll & R Temminghoff

Risk of morbidity and other comparisons after surgeries at different operation techniques 295

R. Bris, Z. Miklovd & L. Martinek

Temperature effect of constant amplitude fatigue test and accelerated

life evaluation method based on energy parameter 296

Y.-K Cai, X.-B. Ma&Y. Zhao

A methodological proposal to meet analysis requirements with purified information

through a logical work sequence and a decision tree in the field of maintenance management 298

T. Grubessich, R. Stegmaier, E. Johns, P. Viveros & F. Kristjanpoller

A thermodynamic entropy based approach for fault detection and prognosticsof samples subjected to corrosion-fatigue degradation mechanism 299

A. Imanian & M. Modarres

Impact of reliability data quality on risk-based decision making 300

S.L. Isaksen & CP Lundtofte

Nonlinear accelerated degradation analysis based on the general Wiener process 301

L. Liu, X.-Y. Li & T.-M. Jiang

Lithium-ion battery Remaining Useful Life prediction based on grey SupportVector Machines 302

J. Miao, X. Li, J. Liu & C. Peng

Highly Accelerated Stress Screening efficiency analysis method study based

on the theory of optimum 304

M. Mu, X. Wang, W. Fan, Y.Lee&J. Xuan

Extensive investigation of Calibrated Accelerated Life Testing (CALT)in comparison with classical Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) 305

B. Sal & M. Altun

A review of safety valve reliability using failure fraction information 306

J. T. Selvik & E.B. Abrahamsen

The life prediction on typical coatings of Printed Circuit Board throughaccelerated degradation modeling 307

L. Sun, X. Wang, G. Zhang, J. Xuan & J. Gao

Composite materials reliability assessment and comparison 308

D. Valis & A. Krzyzak

Simulation based optimal design for accelerated degradation test planwith multiple stresses and multiple degradation measures 309

Y. Wang, X. Chen, C Zhang & Y. Tan

The research on the resistance to soldering heat of molded epoxy

solid tantalum chip capacitor 310

Z. Wang, Y. Chen, X. Gong, C. Duan & Q. Pan

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Development and reliability testing of a new filtering algorithm for noisydata from flight data recorder

M. Woch& W. Zielinski

Efficiency comparison between step-down and step-up stress accelerated

degradation tests based on Wiener process modelingW. Xi, X. -B. Ma&X.T. Liu

Effects of ZnO varistor degradation on the overvoltage protectionmechanism of electronic boards

H. Yadavari, B. Sal, M. Altun, E.N. Erturk & B. Ocak

Analysis of variable Acceleration Factor in internal and external field salt spray tests

G. Zhang, X. Wang & L. Sun

Reliability and availability optimization

Mixed Weibull distribution as best representative of forced outagedistribution to be implemented in BlockSim

E. Carlucci & L. Tognarelli

Optimization of distribution networks resilience based on costs

and design changesH.H.L. Diniz, M. Moura, B. Cunha, I.D. Lins,E. L. Droguett & R. Pascual

DTO "Design To Operability" of space survey complex system monitoringC. Elegbede & C. Ducamp

Reliability and availability prediction calculations for ventilationin the Gotthard base tunnel

D. Huber, M. Steiger & N. Norghauer

A new availability allocation method

A. Jigar, M.A. Lundteigen & Y. Liu

Integrated model for dynamics and reliability of intelligent mechatronic systemsT. Kaul, T. Meyer & W. Sextro

Interurban rail network robustness analysis: Case study of Iran

N. Khademi, M. Babaei & A. Fani

A bi-objective dynamic model for multi-state weighted k-out-of-n system reliabilityH.A. Khorshidi, I. Gunawan & M.Y. Ibrahim

Economic evaluation of small-scale LNG production system for shale gas recoveryconsidering Life Cycle Cost with availabilityJ. Kim, Y. Seo, S. Lee & D. Chang

Cost of reliability of the delivery in the last 100 meters

K. Lewandowski

Proposition to use some logistics tools to analyse the economic costs of accidents

K. Lewandowski

An Ordinal Optimization approach to the solution of homogenous redundancyallocation for Multi-State Series-Parallel SystemsY.F. Li & E. Zio

Integrated dynamic predictive maintenance planning with advanced deteriorationand remaining useful lifetime estimation models

D. Lucke, T. Adolf, T. Trung Le, C. Berenguer, J. Christien,S. Sieg-Zieba & R. Haug

Production availability modeling of FPSO system using Stochastic Petri Nets

H. Meng, L. Kloul & A. Rauzy

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Modeling and optimization of a launcher integration process 333

C. Nivot, B. de Saporta, F. Dufout; J. Behar, D. Berard-Bergery & C. Elegbede

Business Continuity Planning of Norwegian gas network 334

L.M. Pedersen & B.A. Ravdal

Integration and verification of confidence bounds in Monte Carlo reliability simulation 335

V. Schweizer, P. Zeiler & B. Bertsche

Mitigating the impacts of unreliable railway components on service availability and punctuality 336

A. Toletti & U. Weidmann

An implementation of product lifecycle management in urban cable propelled transportation 337

J. Winter & I. Sesma

K-out-of-N systems: Design, operation and preventive maintenance 338

J. Zajicek & J. Kamenicky

Prognostics and system health management

Data analytics for concrete structural health monitoring in nuclear power plants 341

V. Agarwal, Y. Bao, S. Mahadevan, D. Adams &B.P. Hallbert

Unsupervised ensemble clustering for transients classification

in a nuclear power plant turbine 342

S. Al-Dahidi, F. Di Maio, P. Baraldi, E. Zio & R. Seraoui

Fatigue life prediction based on Artificial Neural Network 343

Z. Bao, W. Zhang, S. Jiang & F. Sun

Operating time estimation of military vehicle diesel engine based on neural network 344

Y. Cao, H. Lv & H. Ye

Electromechanical servomechanisms affected by motor static eccentricity:Proposal of fault evaluation algorithm based on spectral analysis techniques 345

D. Belmonte, M.D.L. Dalla Vedova & P. Maggiore

Development of a fuzzy diagnostic model for Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cells 346

B. Davies, L.M. Jackson & S.J. Dunnett

Reliability analysis of nonlinear degradation processes with measurement errors 347

S. Hao, J. Yang & Y. Zhao

A method for on-line evaluating the accuracy of a particle filter-based prognostic approach 348

Y. Hu, P. Baraldi, F. Di Maio & E. Zio

Fatigue life prediction under random amplitude loading spectra with shock 349

S. Jiang, W. Zhang, J. He &Z. Wang

Application of interval-valued probabilities and unified scheme of Non-HomogeneousPoisson Process models to software failure prognostics 350

V.G. Krymsky &I.V. Ivanov

Review and analysis of SCADA data-based methods for health monitoring of wind turbines 351

A. Lebranchu, S. Charbonnier, C. Berenguer & F. Prevost

Prognostics Health Management: Perspectives in engineering systems reliability prognostics 352

M. A. M. Esteves &E.M.P. Nunes

An exponential smoothing extension method for restraining the end effect

of local mean decomposition 353

J. Pan & M. Han

Damage precursor based structural health monitoring and damage prognosis framework 354

E. Rabiei, E.L. Droguett, M. Modarres & M. Amiri

Introducing Type 5 to prognostics and health management classification schemes 355

U.K. Rakowsky & B. Bertsche

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Residual lifetime estimation and electronic device 356

T. Santini, S. Morand, F. Miller, B. Foucher, M. Fouladirad, A. Grail & B. Allard

The continued development of the MFM suite and its practical application on a PWR system 357

H.P.-J. Thunem & X.-X. Zhang

Oil quality and system maintenance optimisation 358

D. Valis, L. Zak & J. Chaloupka

Model-Based Fault Detection and Isolation of PEM fuel cells using Bond Graphs 359

A. Vasilyev, S.J. Dunnett & L.M. Jackson

Predicting Remaining Useful Life by fusing SHM data based on Extended Kalman Filter 360

Y. Wang, C. Gogu, N. Binaud & C. Bes

Failure detection for flight control surface based on the information of electric actuator 361

X. Xiong, J. Wang & P. Zhang

Uncertain generalized Remaining Useful Life Prediction-driven predictive maintenance decision 362

Y.G. Xu, Y.H. Zhang &S.X. Zhang

Decision-making methods of Condition-Based Maintenance 363

Y. Zhang, S.X. Zhang, S. Wang & X. Han

Research on technological system of equipment prognostic capability verification 364

Z. Zhao, J. Qiu, G. Liu, K. Lv, Y. Zhang & S. Yang

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Resilience to hazards in district heating systems 367

B. Babiarz

Qualitative and quantitative analysis of uncertainties in the reliability analysisof field data within the product usage phase 368

M. Him, S. Sochacki, C. Rosebrock & S. Bracke

Applications of global sensitivity analysis methods in civil engineering 369

Z. Kala

Stochastic analysis of the lateral beam buckling of beams with initial imperfections 370

Z. Kala & J. Vales

Main features of the tool SUSA 4.0 for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses 371

M. Kloos

Development of a case study for Eco-Industrial Park deployment under uncertainty 372

E. Kuznetsova & E. Zio

Global sensitivity analysis based on a Monte Carlo simulation: A study basedon a natural gas system 373

C. Medeiros, M.H. Alencar, T. V. Garcez &A.T.de Almeida

New uncertainty importance measure for probabilistic safety assessment 374

D. Mercurio & E.A. Thornsbury

Line sampling approach for extreme case analysis in presence of aleatoryand epistemic uncertainties 375

E. Patelli & M. de Angelis

Copula-based sensitivity measures of computer experiments 376

E. Plischke & E. Borgonovo

Risk assessment of Dangerous Good Transportation using Fuzzy Bow Tie diagram

analysis 377

S. Saad, A. Jaber & J.-M. Flaus

Evaluating the impact of climate change on the risk assessment of Nuclear Power Plants 378

U. Sahlin, F. Di Maio, M. Vagnoli & E. Zio

xxi

Propagation of uncertainty in railway signaling risk analysisJ. Braband & H. Schdbe

379

Model uncertainty

Sensitivity analysis of parameters influencing solute transport from a deep repositoryof spent nuclear fuel 383

J. Chudoba

Random Predictor Models for rigorous uncertainty quantification: Part 1 384

L.G. Crespo, S.P. Kenny &D.P. Giesy

Advanced interval based Monte Carlo method for atmospheric dispersionmodel in risk assessment 385

E.A. El Safadi, O. Adrot & J.-M. Flaus

Nonparametric estimation of distributions of order statistics

with application to nuclear engineering 386

C. Butucea, J.F. Delmas, A. Dutfoy & R. Fischer-

Model comparison and quantification of statistical uncertainties for annual

maxima of ground snow loads 387

A. Rdzsds & M. Sykora

Intermittent Fault's signification and formalization model 388

Q. Shen, J. Qiu, G. Liu & K. Lv

Comparison of uncertainty multilayer models of impact of teleinformation devices reliabilityon Information Quality 389

M. Stawowy & R Dziula

Coping with model uncertainty in optimisation of maintenance policy 390

S. Wu&FRA. Coolen

Uncertainty quantification and decision making under uncertainty

Resilience analysis of Critical Infrastructures exposed to external disturbances

and affected by uncertainty 393

S. Al-Dahidi & X. Liu

Info-gap theory: An intuitive overview for engineering design and reliability assessment 394

Y. Ben-Haim

Identification of the most critical pipes in the presence of imprecise information 395

M. Compare, A. Mancuso, T. Laakso, A. Sab & E. Zio

Random Predictor Models for rigorous uncertainty quantification: Part 2 396

L.G. Crespo, S.P. Kenny & D.R Giesy

Robust design of inspection schedules by means of probability boxes

for structural systems prone to damage accumulation 397

M. de Angelis, E. Patelli & M. Beer

A discrete event simulation design for block-based maintenance planning under

random machine usage 398

B. de Jonge

Water supply investment decision-making under climate change variability—New York

City case study 399

A.M. Gilau

Black swan events and property asset management: Redefining placeand space on global organisations property decisions 400

D. Higgins

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Reliability analysis of Multi-State Systems using random set theory 401Y. Hon, M. Sallak & W. Schon

Training and evaluation of a learning-based autonomous unmanned aircraft

for collision avoidance: Virtual training data generation 402

T.T. Matsumoto, L.F. Vismari & J.B. Camargo Jr.

Optimal risk regulatory policy in the development of a geological disposal facility 403

0. Nieto-Cerezo, E. Patelli & M. Beer

Reliability assessments and remaining life of pipelines subject to combined

loadings using imprecise probabilities 404

D. A. Opeyemi, E. Patelli, M. Beer & S.A. Timashev

What type of uncertainty is robustness referring to in Information Gap Decision Theory? 405

U. Sahlin

Uncertainty propagation for rockfall hazard modelling comparison of Monte Carlo

propagation method and Hybrid approaches 406G. Dupouy, F. Bourrier & J. -M. Tacnet

Uncertainty and strength of knowledge in QRAs 407

V.L. Tuft, B.R. Wagnild, L.M. Pedersen, M. Sandoy & T. Aven

An inference exchange and decision fusing model for separated surveillance

units in safety-critical infrastructure 408

Y Wang, E. Zio, B. Wu & D. Zhang

Humanfactors and human reliability analysisInfluence of local archetypes on the operability and usability of instruments in control rooms 411

S. Avila Filho & M.L.A. Menezes

Cognitive deficit analysis in routine tasks, as a strategy to reduce accidents

and increase of industrial production 412& Avila Filho & C. Costa

A dynamic approach to modeling dependence between Human Failure Events 413R.L. Boring

Adapting Human Reliability Analysis from nuclear power to oil and gas applications 414

R.L. Boring

Use of aggressor profiling in cyber security risk assessments for industrial control systems 415

A.D. Lauvsnes, H. Dahl-Olsen, C. Aaen-Stockdale & L. Sorensen

Operator discourse analysis as a tool for risk management 416

E. S. Drigo, S. Avila Filho & C.R.O. Sousa

The role of data visualization in railway Big Data Risk Analysis 417

M. Figueres-Esteban, P. Hughes & C. Van Gulijk

Laying the basis for resilient Human-Robot Interactions in future space exploration missions 418

K. Fossum, B.-E. Danielsen, A.B. Mohammad & S.O. Johnsen

Measures of orienting response for improving safety training 419E. Giagloglou, M. Radenkovic, M. Milosevic, C. Tsiafis, P. Mijovic,1. Macuzic, M. Djapan & S. Brankovic

Protocol to evaluate the influence of stress on the task involving humantypes, behavior and health: An exercise proposal 420

G. G. Goncalves, K.R. V. Nunes, R. C. G da Silva, S. Avila Filho & R.S. Magalhaes

Human Reliability Analysis to support operational planning of an experimental facility 421

P. Buffa, M. Giardina, S.F Greco, G. Palermo, V.N. Dang, L. Podofillini, J. Esposito & G. Prete

xxiii

Proof-of-concept accident diagnostic support for Sodium Fast Reactors 423

KM. Groth, M.R. Denman, T. Jones, M. Darling & G.F. Luger

Application of a simple biomechanical model of a pedestrian in the solution

of the dynamic response of a light bridge structure 424

T. Hanzlik, V. Salajka & J. Kala

Improved modelling and quantification of human dependence 425

E.M. Hickling

The development of PSA compatible methods for the identification

of Errors of Commission (EoCs) 426

E.M. Hickling, A. Miller & M.K. Reid

An international survey of Error of Commission assessment: Methods and practices 427

E.M. Hickling, L.K. Ainsworth & M.K. Reid

Determination of Human Error Probabilities in Permit To Work procedure 428

M. Jahangiri, N. Hobobi, S. Keshavarzi & A. Akbar Hosseini

Importance of cognitive Human Factors in the safety management for petroleum industry 429

S. O. Johnsen & Y. Liu

Use of a handheld tool to support Control Room and Field Operator collaboration 430

M. Kaarstad, S. Strand & C. Nihhving

Numerical simulation of suspension footbridge focused on human comfort criteria 431

J. Kala

Operator actions in NPP: Adjustment of Human Error Probabilities in case of earthquake 432

D. Kancev, S. Heussen, T. Kozlik & J.U. Klugel

Diagnosis error probability estimation by using Bayesian inference in advanced MCR HRA 433

A.R. Kim, IS. Jang, P.H. Seong, J.H. Kim &J.K Park

Empirical investigation of relation between PSFs and HEPs regarding soft controls 434

Y. Kim, J Park, W. Jung & IS. Jang

Human and Organizational Factors in offshore oil and gas exploration and production facilities 435

M. Konstandinidou & M. Christou

Evaluation of human error of response to auditory and visual signals in the virtual reality 436

L. Kotek, Z. Tuma, P. Blecha, Z. Nemcova & P. Habada

Enhancing the basis for Crew Resource Management (CRM) training for well

operations crews: Risk influencing factors in offshore drilling 437

S. A. Kvalheim & S. Haugen

Improving ICT tools as support for morning meetings in the oil and gas industry 438

A. Ldgbu, S. Sarshar & G. Rindahl

Exploring cognitive biases in project development in the petroleum industry 439

Y. Liu &J.T. Ludvigsen

Case study of HF workload assessment on control rooms for offshore flotel rig 440

Y. Liu & S. O. Johnsen

Workload parameters and controlled area selection for railway traffic controllers 441

I. F. Lovetei, B. Szdmel & G. Szabo

Altering the way key information is presented to overcome the detrimental

effect of in-cabin aircraft noise (simulated) on recall performance 442

B. R.C. Molesworth, S. Koh & M. Burgess

Learning from accidents: Analysis of multi-attribute events and implicationsto improve design and reduce human errors 443

R. Mourn, M. Beer, E. Patelli, J. Lewis & F. Knoll

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Human error contributions to transient initiating event frequencies 444

A. Camarinopoulos, O. Nusbaumer, L. Camarinopoulos & G. Becker

Helicopter accident analysis using HFACS-HE 445

H. Omole, G. Walker & S. Shappell

A method for Human Reliability Analysis in radiotherapy: Identification and characterization

of influencing factors 446

D. Pandya, L. Podojillini, F. Emert, A.J. Lomax & V.N. Dang

A framework to determine simulation scenarios for collecting HRA data from full-scopesimulators 447

J. Park, Y. Kim & W. Jung

Symptom-based context evaluation of human performance and convergence of HEAP

into its HPLV 448

G. Petkov

Dynamic context evaluation of human actions in severe accident analysis and management 449

G. Petkov, E. Rostov, K Filipov, A. Stefanova, B. Atanasova, M. Andreeva & P. Groudev

Decision support by integration of hazard analysis results in HMI 451

A. Pfeffer & L. Urbas

Human-Machine Interface (HMI) scenario quantification performed by ATHEANA,A Technique for Human Error Analysis 452

J.M. O. Pinto, P.F. Frutuoso e Melo &P.L.C. Saldanha

Supporting Safety Management Systems of Air Traffic Controllers by analyzinghuman-technical interactions 453

B. Szdmel & G. Szabo

How HRA can drive plant improvement 454

C. Taylor

Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human error in winter navigation 455

O. A. Valdez Banda, F. Goerlandt, P. Kujala & J. Montewka

Guidance on integrating Human Reliability Assessment in Quantitative Risk Assessment 456

K van de Merwe, S. 0ie, S. Hogenboom & A. Falck

Modelling adequacy of organisation in human reliability analysis—a case of maritime

operations 457

KM. Abujaafar, Z. Yang, J. Wang, S. Nazir &K.I. Qvergard

Framework for a Bayesian Network version of IDHEAS 458

K Zwirglmaier, D. Straub & KM. Groth

Occupational safety

Occupational risk management for activities performed near vehicles 461

O.N. Aneziris, LA. Papazoglou, M. Konstandinidou, M. Damen, L.J. Bellamy,M. Mud, H.J. Manuel & J Oh

Open data by public administrations: An opportunity for improving research

in occupational and industrial safety 463

S. Ansaldi & P. Agnello

Effective implementation measurability in a health and safety management system 464

A. Bianchini, F. Donini, M. Pellegrini, C. Saccani & M. Fanelli

Occupational health and safety outlook in Turkey 465

N. Bilim & A. Bilim

Reasons for occupational accidents in road-building construction sites 466

A. Bilim, N. Bilim &O.N. Celik

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A framework for preventing and managing risks in confined spaces throughIOT technologies 467

L. Botti, V. Duraccio, M. G Gnoni & C. Mora

Improved safety procedures for small chemical companies 468

PA. Bragatto, P. Agnello, S. Ansaldi & A. Pirone

Mobile Elevating Work Platforms: A discussion on the main causes of accidents

and some suggestions for prevention 469

E. De Cillis, L. Maida, M. Patrucco & C. Cirio

Comparison of two methodologies for occupational accidents pre-cursors data collection 470

L. Comberti, G. Baldissone, S. Bosca, M. Demichela, S. Mure, A. Petruni,

M. Djapan & S. Cencetti

Occupational health and safety in food seasoning sector 471

P. Ercan & B. Mert

Using accident precursor events for supporting a dynamic risk analysis at lean workplace 472

S. Andriulo, M. G. Gnoni & V. Duraccio

Technical safety maintenance systems—an integrative approach 473

J. P. von Cube, J. Volmert & R Schmitt

A control banding approach customized for the construction industry 474

EC. Marcoulaki, M. Konstandinidou, LA. Papazoglou & M. Dimaki

Occupational health and safety in aquaculture industry 475

B. Mert & P. Ercan

Non-safety costs: A proposal of reclassification to facilitate the estimate

of the economic consequences of occupational injuries 476

G. J.L. Micheli, E. Cagno & V. Ferrandi

The risk of occupational accident: Updating the Fuzzy Application Procedure 477

S. Mure, G. Baldissone, M. Demichela & L. Comberti

Modelling mechanisms of vessel crew injury: A generalizable approach 478

D. Owen, G. Innes-Jones, Y. Hifi, S. Palmieri & L. Save

A safety incentive system based on workers behaviour and calculated througha Fuzzy Inference System 479A. Saracino, G. Antonioni, G. Spadoni, M. Curcuruto, D. Guglielmi & M. G. Mariani

Safe distance for firefighting in protective zones of 400kV power lines 480M. Trcka, A. Thomitzek, B. Baudisova & J. Ondruch

Beyond trade-offs: Towards a theory of the linkages between OHS and productivity 481P. Trucco & C. De Capitani

Risk governance and policy making

10 years from risk assessment to regulatory action—is complacency creating a reactiveand brittle regulatory regime in Norway? 485S. O. Johnsen & A. 0ren

Developing safety requirements on Spent Fuel Pool Island during the decommissioningof Nuclear Power Plant 486K. Hong, J.H. Kim & S. Oh

How can the usefulness of capability assessments be improved? 487H. Lindbom, H. Tehler, T. Frykmer & C. Uhr

Safety requirements for integrating Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems in civil airspace 488

M.A. Lundsveen, IE. Simensen & C. Raspotnig

xxvi

Risk governance deficits revealed by the Oslo terror attacks

M. Nilsen, P. Almklov, E. Albrechtsen & S. Antonsen

Table-top urban risk and resilience management for football events

U. Siebold, S. Hasenstein, J. Finger & I. Having

The need for Harmonised Risk Acceptance Criteria for the transport of DangerousGoods in EuropeJR. Spouge&J.D. Ellis

Risk management

Management systems for safety in nuclear industries

R. Akselsson

Investigation method for cascading effects between critical infrastructures

B. Arvidsson, J. Johansson, H. Hassel & A. Cedergren

Risk management in freeze-drying processesS. Bosca, D. Fissore, M. Demichela & R.L.B. Raoni

Long-term optimization of asset replacement in gas distribution gridsG. A.J.F. Brouns & C.J.KM. Poorts

Integrated Asset integrity management: Risk management, human factor, reliabilityand maintenance integrated methodology applied to subsea case

E. Calixto

A general approach for automating FMECAM. Compare & E. Zio

Managing the risk of change: A new approachS. Corrigan, N. McDonald, D. Baranzini & P. Ulfvengren

Integrated project and functional safety management—a way to increased qualityof safety instrumented system designH. Dahl-Olsen, A.D. Lauvsnes, T. Leinum & A. Casal

Information visualization to support the decision-making process on risk assessment

T. V. Garcez, M.H. Alencar & A.T. de Almeida

Risk assessment in radiotherapy and patient safetyD. Gilley & 0. Holmberg

Application of reliability methods—an empirical studyFV.Haase&R. Woll

Communicating Hazard Log information to empower stakeholders and achieve

increased safetyO.S. Heggland &J.E. Simensen

A comparative study of the Norwegian Cyber Security Strategy vs strategiesin EU and the US—emerging cybersafety ignoredS.O. Johnsen

Challenges in the context of the development and application of risk-informed

regulations and norms

P.Kafka

Risk analysis in processing of power plant radioactive sludge into low-temperature matrices

L. Kotek, P. Travnicek, P. Junga & S. Svoboda

A simplified GIS-based tool for the environmental human health risk assessment

in complex sites

M.F Milazzo, G. Ancione & R. Lisi

xxvii

Risk based prioritization and management of relevant ageing components 511

5. Martorell, I. Marton, P. Martorell, S. Carlos & A. I. Sanchez

Use of custom software applications for PSA model data collection,

analysis, and results visualization 512

D. Mercurio, M.B. Wishart & E.F. Parsley

A new Human and Organizational Factors model for assuring well control 513

R. W. Miles

Troubleshooting techniques for life and fire safety in buildings 514

E. Nachtigall

Application of biofilter plantation for oil spill cleanup in the Arctic coastal waters 515

M. Naseri, A. Barabadi, J. Barabady & G Voskoboynikov

Modern approach for integrating safety events in a risk management process 516

J.M. Nisula

Barriers—from safety studies to safety management 517

E.H. Blix, O.M. Nyheim, T.M. van Roosmalen, T. Holde, A. Karlsen, B. Ims,T.S. Johansen & J. Idsoe-Jakobsen

An indicator approach for managing drilling risk in real time 518

E. Okstad, S. Hauge & T. Haavik

Harmonized methodology for Safety Integrity Level allocation

in a generic TCMS application 519

K.A. Ouedraogo, J. Beugin, E.-M. El-Koursi, J. Clarhaut, D. Renaux & F. Lisiecki

Knowledge based strategies for Disaster Risk Reduction: A knowledge management

framework to increase understanding and awareness of value of preventionand preparedness 520

O. Mejri & G. Pesaro

Risk analysis of cyber vulnerabilities in water distribution industrial control systems 521

V.M. Rao & R.A. Francis

Reliability and maintainability impact to asset management stakeholders:

A practical guide for asset owners 522

M. Raza

Model-based safety architecture framework for complex systems 523

K. Schuitemaker, M. Rajabalinejad &J.G. Braakhuis

Business continuity management using efficient qualitative methods 524

E. Schultheiss & A. Fischer

Risk assessment in the perishable food supply chain 525

M. Shirani & M. Demichela

Risk assessment of Ship-to-Ship transfers by ANFIS modelling 526

D.I. Stavrou & N.P Ventikos

Belief function theory based decision support methods: Application to torrent protectionwork effectiveness and reliability assessment 527

S. Carladous, J.-M. Tacnet, J. Dezert & M. Batton-Hubert

Risk modeling of autonomous underwater vehicle operation focusing on the human

operator 528

C.A. Thieme, LB. Utne&I. Schjolberg

Reducing risk in aquaculture by implementing autonomous systems and integrated operations 529

LB. Utne, I. Schjolberg & I.M. Holmen

Disruptions and supply chain risk management in offshore logistics: A case study 530

J. van Rijckevorsel, A. Sydnes & B. Batalden

xxviii

A pragmatic approach to the reuse of qualitative risk and reliability analyses—experiencesfrom analyses of railway traction substations

R. Winther

A pragmatic approach to the elicitation of RAMS requirements based on experiencesfrom railway infrastructure projectsR. Winther, A. A. Hauge & C. Raspotnig

Maritime risk assessment in inland waterways: The past and the future

X.P. Yan, D. Zhang, J. Wang&C.G. Soares

PRA based satellite risk analysis in orbit insertion and attitude establishment process

Z. Zhang, J. Wang, L. Li & Z. Cheng

Organizational factors andsafety culture

Organizational support for human performance: Towards a human factors capabilityself-assessment tool

N. Balfe, M. C Leva & S. Cromie

Trends in safety culture: An essay on organizational behaviors influencing safety,in the light of recent developments in oil & gas industryD. Botheju & K Abeysinghe

Learning from disaster—exploring new ways of seeingM.A. Damlie, L.F. Nilsen & S. Antonsen

Development of the framework for a Self-Assessment Tool to assess the effectiveness

of reporting within a safety critical industryE. Douglas, C. Leva, S. Cromie & F. Mattel

Organisational requirements to transfer and implement safety solutions across

operational contexts

M. Ducci, S. Silvagni & R Liston

Psychosocial risks in underground systemsC.S. Fugas

Application of the ATEX-HOF methodology: A case study in

automotive manufacturing industryJ. Geng, S. Mure, G. Camuncoli, A. Petruni, M. Cvetkovic, S. Nikolic & M. Demichela

Why measure safety climate? A longitudinal study on the relationship between safetyclimate measurements and safety performanceA. Gilberg, R. Ekle, R.J. Bye & T. Kongsvik

Fighting the "normalization" of deviance—slow drift analysisJ. P. Bert & F. Jubert

Safety demonstration challenges and recommendations in the nuclear field

P. Karpati, A.A. Hauge, V. Katta & C. Raspotnig

Does a national incident reporting system contribute to improved patient safety:A Norwegian case

S. S. Kilskar, L. Melby, A. 0ren &J.W Lippestad

SEAHORSE project: Dealing with maritime workarounds and developing smarter procediR.E. Kurt, V.Arslan, O. Turan, L. de Wolff, B. Wood, O. Arslan, T. Kececi,J. W. Winkelman, M. van Wijngaarden & G Papadakis

Improving Outage Control Centre team performance through design approachL. Hurlen & P. Le Darz

Leadership teams; evaluation of a risk decision making method for total

operational risk management of activities on offshore installations

H. von Hirsch-Maclean, O.H. Utvik, K.H. Dalland, R.I. Einarsen & T.A. Eide

xxix

Human factors and quality control procedures: An example from the offshore

oil & gas industry 551

C. Morais, R. Moura, M. Beer & J. Lewi

Safety training systems using a virtual plant linked dynamic simulator 552

A. Nakai & K. Suzuki

A difficulty of the work on the production line 553

V. Pelantovd

Safety culture in quality management system of the organisation 554

V. Pelantovd

Security challenges for Europe 555

D. Prochazkova & J. Prochazka

A method to assess maritime resilience 556

J.A. Rypkema, F.A. van der Beek, J.M.C. Schraagen,J. W. Winkelman & M. van Wijngaarden

Human factors in situations of uncertainty 557

M.A. Mariscal Saldana, S. Garcia-Herrero,

E.M. Lopez Perea, A. Toca Otero & E. Obeso Torices

Human-Performance Tools as means to promote system resilience 558

A.B. Skjerve & C. Axelsson

Towards an approach for training control-room crews in handling unforeseen events 559

A.B. Skjerve, L. Holmgren & B. Widheden

Staff perceptions of incident reporting & organisational learning in healthcare—results

of a qualitative study 560

M.A. Sujan & G. Frau

Socio-technical risk modelling and management

Modelling and simulation of disruption risk in the complex logisticnetworks—a multimethod approach 563

L.A. Bukowski, J. Feliks & K. Majewska

A simulation approach for risk modeling and analysis based on multi-agents 564

H. Kanj & J.-M. Flaus

Using GIS to integrate social factors with level 3 PRA for emergency response 565

I.M. Miller, J. Pence, Z. Mohaghegh, J. V. Whitacre & E. Kee

Creating an integrated risk picture for four modes of transport 566

J.M. Nisula

Safety of complex critical facilities—concept, assignment of conditions

and timing management 567

D. Prochazkova

An integral safety approach for design of high risk products and systems 568

M. Rajabalinejad, G.M. Bonnema & F.J.A.M. van Houten

Towards a realist validation of an aviation system operational concept 569

M.A. Sujan, G. Frau & N. McDonald

Model-Based Safety Assessment using FRAM for complex systems 570

Q. Yang & J. Tian

Software reliability and safety

Functional diversification for software fault tolerance in data fusion: A real applicationon Kalman filters for mobile robot yaw estimation 573

K. Bader, B. Lussier & W. Schon

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Mitigating offshore and maritime cyber risks 574

M.J. Csorba

Reliability modeling of Open Source Software based on adoption behavior under

stochastic environment 575

A.H.S. Garmabaki, A. Ahmadi, I. Mahdavi & M. Ahmadi

Fault-tolerant topology selection for TTEthernet Networks 576

V. Gavriluf, D. Tama$-Selicean & P. Pop

CONFeTTI—Component fault tree-based testing 577

M. Zeller & K. Hofig

Application of an approach for traceability on safety systems developmentproject documentation 578

V. Katta, C. Raspotnig & T. Stdlhane

IT risk audit tool to enhance IT Risk Assessments 579

R. Mock, B. Truninger, P. Brunner, G. Pociuipa & T. Hruz

Application of an agile development processes for EN50128/Railway conformant software 580

T. Myklebust, T. Stdlhane & N. Lyngby

Applying a reliability metric for assessing computer-based logical diagrams 581

B.A. Gran &J.E. Simensen

Safety instrumented systems operated in the intermediate demand mode 582

S. Eisinger, L.F. Oliveira, K. Tveit & B. Natvig

Structural reliability

Comparative probabilistic analysis for reinforced solid concrete slabs 585

T. Micic & M. Asenov

Development of region-based reliability design for reinforced concrete structural elements 586

I. A. Assakkaf, S. Al-Sanad & M. Al-Saffar

Surrogate modeling of nonstationary systems with uncertain properties 587

L.D. Avendano-Valencia, E.N. Chatzi & M.D. Spiridonakos

Dynamic stress responses and fatigue lives of cantilever beams subjectedto high-kurtosis non-Gaussian random loadings 588

H. Cheng, J. Huang, Y. Wang & Y Zhang

The second law of thermodynamics and degradation of materials 589

M. Amiri, E.L. Droguett, N. Iyyer & M. Naderi

Using Kriging for a fast verification of a spherical tank external radius 590

N. Gayton & G. Defaux

Comparison of surrogate models for time-variant reliability analysis 591

L. Hawchar, CP El Soueidy & F. Schoefs

Structural reliability assessment using Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation

with respect to the statistical dependence of input variables 592

P. Janas, M. Krejsa, V. Krejsa & R. Bris

Addressing high dimensionality in reliability analysis using low-rank tensor approximations 593K Konakli & B. Sudret

Reliability-based expression for the shear capacity of reinforced concrete slabs

under concentrated loads close to supports 594

E. O.L. Lantsoght, C. van der Veen & A. de Boer

Application of soft computing techniques for reliability calculation of time demandingproblems 595

M. Somodikovd & D. Lehky

xxxi

Computation methods for extremes of non-linear multi-component response 596

B.J. Leira

Probabilistic working life prediction of cooling towers 597

J. Markova

Reliability assessment of towers and masts 598

J. Markova & M. Holicky

A computational framework for the reliability of Offshore Wind Turbine support structures 599

A. M. Casademunt, S. Sriramula & N. Krishnan

Model uncertainties in resistances of steel members 600

V. Nadolski & M. Sykora

Imprecise structural reliability analysis using PC-Kriging 601

R. Schobi & B. Sudret

Effect of the properties of the masonry buildings on their allowable settlements 602

J. Serhal, O. Deck, M. Alheib, F Hage Chehade & D. Abdelmassih

Assessment of the probability of failure-free operation of the working systemof a small-dimension hydraulic hammer—a case study 603

M. Sokolski & P. Sokolski

Modelling of the service life of concrete structures under combined mechanical

and environmental actions 604

M. Somodikovd, B. Teply, D. Vofechovskd & D. Lehky

Reliability simulation analysis, evaluation and optimization on the conventional

steering gear structure 605

N. Zhang, T. Liu, H. Xu, L. Zhang & L. Tian

Outline of the method for determination of the fatigue life on the basis

of density function distribution for a number of fatigue cycles 606

M. Zieja, M. Jasztal, S. Stepien & M. Wazny

Natural hazards

An overview of the methodologies to investigate on Na-Tech events triggeredby volcanic ash fallouts 609

G. Ancione, M.F. Milazzo & G. Maschio

Risks and reliability in a fully renewable Switzerland 610

S. Bartlett, B. Kruyt, A. Kahl & M. Lehning

Computing the reliability kernel in time-variant analysis 611

A. Brias, J.-D. Mathias & G. Deffuant

Risk assessment of NaTech scenarios caused by flooding 612

G. Landucci, A. Necci, G. Antonioni & V. Cozzani

Territorial vulnerability to flooding in an estuarine area: Challenges valuing the structural

and societal local ensemble 613

P.P. dos Santos, A. O. Tavares, P. Freire, A.B. Fortunato & A. Rilo

Historical flood events in the Tagus estuary: Contribution to risk assessment

and management tools 614

A. Rilo, P. Freire, P.P. dos Santos, A. O. Tavares & L. Sd

Samplingjoint time series of significant wave heights and periods in the North Sea 615

W.S. Jager & O.M. Ndpoles

Characterization of present and future precipitation through bivariate copulasand its use in risk assessment of infrastructure 616

O. Morales-Ndpoles, D. Worm, L. Abspoel-Bukman, J.N. Huibregtse & W. Courage

xxxii

A Bayesian Network for extreme river discharges in Europe 617

D. Paprotny & O. Morales-Ndpoles

Space weather impact on power grids 618

R. Piccinelli & E. Krausmann

A seismic risk model for Italian urban areas 619

A. Rasulo, C. Testa & B. Borzi

Preliminary earthquake risk perception: The case of secondary school students

of a seismic region of Mexico 620

G. Santos-Reyes, T. Gouzeva &J.R. Santos-Reyes

Assessing the sensitivity of power distribution systems in U.S. metropolitan areas

to climate-induced hurricane impacts 621

A. Staid, S.D. Guikema, R. Nateghi, M.Z. Gao & S.M. Quiring

SPECIAL AREAS

Understanding complexity in socio-technical-economic systems

Local success, global failure: Challenges facing the recovery operations of critical

infrastructure breakdowns 625

A. Cedergren, J. Johansson, L. Svegrup & H. Hassel

Towards unified Perron-Frobenius framework for managing systemic risk

in networked systems 626

V. Marbukh

Comparing operations in nuclear and railways based on a socio-technical system model 627

H.-P. Berg, S. Griebel & B. Milius

Assessing single point criticality of multi-modal transport networks at the national-scale 628

R. Pant, J. W. Hall, S.P. Blainey &J.M. Preston

Risk-informed emergency response via spatio-temporal socio-technical risk analysis 629

J. Pence, Z. Mohaghegh & E. Kee

Size fluctuation in energy demand for the electric market: The effect of renewable sources 630

A. Scala, G. Caldarelli, M. Mureddu & A. Damiano

Study of seismic recovery and resilience of Electric Power Supply System 631

L. Sun, M. Didier & B. Stojadinovic

Modelling interdependencies and cascades

Cascading failure behavior in randomly generated power transmission networks 635

F. Cadini, A. Azzolin & E. Zio

Reliability modeling of a spool valve considering dependencies among failure mechanisms 636

M. Fan, Z. Zeng, R. Kang & E. Zio

Modelling interdependent electric power and gas networks in the context

of cascading failures 637

O. Gomand, A. Antenucci, B. Li & G. Sansavini

Method for describing and analysing cascading effects in past events:

Initial conclusions and findings 638

J. Johansson, H. Hassel, A. Cedergren, L. Svegrup & B. Arvidsson

Simulation of the post-disaster recovery process of urban socio-technical systems 639

T. Kanno, T. Suzuki & K Furuta

On lifetimes of systems having interdependence and cascading effect 640

H. Lee&J.H. Cha

xxxiii

Measuring the societal and multi-industry impact of cascading failures in power systems 641

B. Li, K. Barker & G. Sansavini

Potentials of coloured Petri nets for realistic availability modelling of productionsystems in industry 4.0 643

F. Long, P. Zeiler & B. Bertsche

Assessing supply chain vulnerabilities on critical infrastructure disruptions:A multilevel modelling approach 644

P. Trucco & B. Petrenj

Aggregating performance measures in interdependent infrastructure

networks: Issues and challenges 645

A. Reilly, S. D. Guikema & A. Samuel

Preliminary analysis of the effects caused by the eruption of the "Eyjafjallajokull"volcano in 2010 646

J.R. Santos-Reyes &A.N. Beard

Equal load-sharing models of cascades in network infrastructures 647

A. Scala &P.G. De Sanctis Lucentini

Vulnerability analyses of interdependent critical infrastructures:

Case study of the Swedish national power transmission and railway system 648

L. Svegrup & J. Johansson

Geo-information infrastructures for inter-disciplinary risk analysis research 649

V. Vescoukis, P. Galanis, I. Iosifescu, L. Hurni & M. Raubal

Reliability modeling method of space mechanism based on consideringdynamical cascading effects 650

P.D. Wang, J.G. Zhang, L.J. Kan, L.F. You, L. Zhang, C.L. Tan &Y.Q. Liu

Risk approaches in insurance andfinance sectors

A risk management approach for the Swiss seismic hazard 653

P. Galanis, A. Sycheva, M. Broccardo, W. Mimra & B. Stojadinovic

The cost of reputational damage when a major accident occurs 654

K. Kyaw & N. Paltrinieri

Financial risk management in construction industry: A comparison among loan,pre-sale and barter strategies 655

M. Sharafkhani & S. Kazemi

Contributions to meeting the Basel II AMA use test requirement 656

H.B. Vormeland & D. Hager

Author index 657

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