SamsungElectronics MikeWood 2014 Ac15b1f791 17fe11547c

8/12/2019 SamsungElectronics MikeWood 2014 Ac15b1f791 17fe11547c

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SAMSUNG Electronics

A contrarians perspective on a top 10 global

brand with above average growth potentialand a wide margin of safety.

By: Michael Wood www.evansic.com


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Source: Samsung Investor Day Presentation 2013

Contest Qualification


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1. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS Equity)Price: KRW 1,367,000Shares: 150,777,000FX rate: 0.0009 USD/KRWMarket Cap USD: $185 Billion

2. Samsung Electronics GDR (SMSN LI Equity)Price: USD 672.50Equiv. GDRs: 276,431,000Market Cap: USD 185.9 Billion

Prices as of 06/13/14

Prices as of 06/13/14

How to buy Samsung Electronics


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All values from here on out are reported in USD All prices and market caps are as of 06/13/14 This report contains forward-looking numbers

that could differ from actual results Samsung Electronics is not a suitable investment

for all investors and individual circumstancesshould be taken into consideration

This report is intended to provide the investorwith research relating to Samsung Electronics andis not a solicitation to buy the stock

Disclosure


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Cheap price Management: honest & skillful capitalallocators

Dominant and strengthening competitiveadvantage (low-cost & high-qualitymanufacturing)

Globally recognized brand that is well taken careof (broad and strong associations)

Excellent balance sheet protection

Proven Investment Process


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Market Cap = $ US 186 Billion Non-operating assets (net) = $ US 60.4 Billion Enterprise Value = $ US 125.6 Billion

Q1-2014 Book value = $ US 145.5 Billion 2014E Net Income = $ US 24.0 Billion 2014E Free-cash-flow = $ US 24.0 Billion

EV/FCF2014 = 5.2x (prices as of 06/13/14)

Samsung Quick Stats


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1. Samsungs businesses are not well understood, as themarket is assuming Samsung is only a smartphone company2. Samsung Semiconductor is worth the enterprise value itself

(the market price implicitly assumes mobile is worth -$33B)3. Samsung trades at more than a 50% discount to peers and

intrinsic value4. Samsung is manufacturing 13 products with global #1

market share that have very defensible market positions5. Several catalysts are in motion to unlock the trapped value,

including IPOing non-core businesses, corporaterestructuring and massive share buybacks ($60B net cash)

6. Management has an astounding track record of successfullycreating shareholder value

Thesis


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1. Success of Samsung hinges on the success of theGalaxy S franchise2. There is no growth left in the smartphone

industry (the market is fully saturated)

3. Lenovo will drive Samsungs mobile operatingmargins to 3% (while Apple will continue tooperate in a vacuum)

4. Samsung is a copy-cat and is only successful

because they infringe on others patents 5. Samsung is not shareholder friendly and willnever return capital to shareholders

This presentation seeks to rectify the myths that cloud

the investors mindset on Samsung Electronics

Dispelling the Myths


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Apples Portfolio: iPhone 53% iPad 19% Mac 13% iPod 3% iTunes 9% Accessories 3%

Samsungs Portfolio: DRAM 5% NAND 4% Logic Chipset 5% Mobile Display 5% Large Panel Display 6% Tablets 4% Low-end Smartphones 14% Premium Smartphones 28% Feature phones 3% Networking Equipment 2% Laptop/PC 4% TV/Screen 13% Home Appliances 6%

Samsung has a diverse product offering that can withstand the failure ofany single product. Even if iPhone wipes out Galaxy S, Apple will still need

to buy Samsungs DRAM and NAND memory chips (in larger quantities).

Myth 1 Debunked: Sales by Product (2013)


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1. Non-core Assets (net) are worth $US 60.4 Billion2. Samsung Semiconductor is worth $US 125 Billion3. Samsung Display is worth $US 29.7 Billion

4. Samsung Home Appliance is worth $ US 11.2 Billion5. Samsung IT & Mobile is worth $ US 208 Billion

Total Equity Value $ US 433B

Upside to current price: 134%

Cheap Price: Samsung SOTP Value


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Cash and Cash Equivalents: $17.0 billion ST Financial Instruments: $38.6 billion ST Available-for-sale FA: $1.9 billion LT Available-for-sale FA: a $7.3 billion Investment in Associates: b $6.1 billion ST Borrowings: -$6.8 billion Debentures: -$1.2 billion LT Borrowings: -$2.5 billion

Non-Operating Assets (Net) $US 60.4 billionAs of Q1 2014

1. Non-core Assets (net) $60.4B


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(In millions of US Dollar) Mar-14 Dec-13Equity securities - Listed $ 3,680 ** $ 3,959 Equity securities - Non-Listed 3,088 704 Debt Securities 558 951 Total $ 7,326 $ 5,615

** Listed Equity Securities:

All values in mil lions of US Dolla rsNumber of Shares

OwnedPercentage of

OwnershipAcquisition

CostBook ValueMarch 2014

Samsung Heavy Industries 40,675,641 17.6% $ 195 $ 1,166 Samsung Fine Chemicals 2,164,970 8.4% 41 87 Hotel Shilla 2,004,717 5.1% 13 120 Cheil Worldwide 2,998,725 2.6% 2.6 74 iMarket Korea 647,320 1.8% 0.3 15 SFA 1,822,000 10.2% 34 67 Wonik IPS 7,220,216 9.0% 57 56

ASML 12,595,575 2.8% 653 1,123 CSR - 0.0% - 99 Rambus 4,788,125 4.3% 83 43 Seagate Technology 12,539,490 3.8% 197 669 Wacom 8,398,400 5.0% 56 56 Sharp 35,804,000 3.0% 110 108 Other - 42 49 Total $ 1,484 $ 3,680

1. a. LT Assets Available for Sale


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Samsung SDS to be spun-off in Q4-2014

All values in millions of US Dollars

Investee Acquisition CostBook ValueMarch 2014

Net AssetValue

Samsung Card $ 1,384.69 $ 2,092 $ 2,077 Samsung Electro-Mechanics 323.82 841 840 Samsung SDI 309.02 1,067 1,316 Samsung SDS 136.54 803 783 Samsung Techwin 144.26 363 395 Samsung Corning Advanced Glass 193.41 186 186

Other 766 766

Total $ 6,117 $ 6,362

1. b. Investment in Associates


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Samsung Semiconductors is worth 9.5x 2015 operating profit This equates to a value of $US 125 Billion Consistent with Micron (@7.8x 2015 OP) and SanDisk (@ 10x

2015 OP) Samsung Semiconductors is worth the enterprise value of

the entire company by itself!!!!

All values are in $US BillionSamsung Semiconductor 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015ETotal Revenue 21.4 32.0 33.3 30.7 33.5 41.6 44.9 DRAM 7.5 14.8 12.1 10.6 12.3 16.3 17.5 NAND 5.2 6.7 8.1 7.4 9.1 11.1 12.4 System LSI 3.5 5.9 9.9 11.7 11.4 13.5 14.2 Operating Profit 1.7 8.6 5.8 3.7 6.4 11.4 13.0 Operating Margin 8% 27% 17% 12% 19% 27% 29%

2. Samsung Semiconductor

Source: Bloomberg, Company filings, AllianceBernstein


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#1 global market share in overall memory #1 global market share in Mobile DRAM (49%) #1 global market share in PC DRAM (33%)

#1 global market share in NAND (32%)

2. a. Samsung Memory

Source: DRAMeXchange


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Samsung trades at half the valuation of sector Samsung Semiconductor will earn $11.4 billion operating

profit in 2014, on par with Intel and Qualcomm Samsung Semiconductor by itself deserves $125 billion

valuation, on par with Intel and Qualcomms enterprise values All values are in millions of US Dollars

Semiconductor Market Cap P/B 5-Year2014 2015 2016 Q1 2014 ROE

Intel $148,500 $136,577 $53,100 14.8 14.2 12.2 2.6 20.7%Qualcomm $134,170 $102,117 $27,470 14.6 13.5 10.1 3.5 16.4%Micron Tech. $33,360 $26,992 $16,300 9.6 8.8 8.5 3.3 12.7%SK Hynix $32,085 $34,168 $13,238 7.7 6.4 6.8 2.8 10.8%SanDisk $22,280 $19,560 $6,660 15.3 14.7 13.0 3.4 13.4%

Secto r A verag e 12.4 11.5 10.1 3.1 15%

Sam sun g Electron ics $185,531 $125,110 $232,715 5.2 4.9 4.7 1.4 20.1%

P/E ex. net cashGrossRevenue

EnterpriseValue

2. Samsung Semiconductor Peers

Source: Bloomberg, Company filings


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Consolidation in the DRAM space to 3 competitors has causedDRAM prices to soar and margins to expand

Since 2013, Micron is up 410%, SK Hynix +83% and Samsung -10%

DRAM Recovery leaves SMSN behind


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Does a company that is consistently taking share in thesemiconductor industry deserve a 50%+ discount to its peers?

Source: Gartner

Semiconductor Industry by Revenue


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Samsung Display is worth at least 9x 2014 op.profit, given that their main competitor LGDisplay trades at 13.7x 2014 operating profit

Samsung Display is worth $29.7 billion

All values are in $US BillionSamsung Display 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015ETotal Revenue 20.7 25.4 26.3 29.0 27.8 29.5 31.1 Large Panel 9.8 21.6 20.4 19.5 14.7 13.6 14.3 Small & Medium Panel - 2.3 2.4 2.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 AMOLED (aka OLED) - 1.5 3.4 7.2 12.6 15.3 16.3 Operating Profit 1.4 1.7 (0.3) 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.6 Operating Margin 7% 7% -1% 10% 10% 11% 12%

3. Samsung Display



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Samsung is the dominant player in display with 99% marketshare in AMOLED Samsung has already announced Super AMOLED, securing a

two-stage technology lead on peers

Despite the technological edge, Samsung trades at a steepdiscount to its most comparable peer LG Display

3. Samsung Display #1 Position


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Samsung Display trades at a 50% discount toits inferior South Korean competitor LGDisplay

Samsung Display deserves a premium to LGDisplay (7% assumed)

This is the basis of the $29.7 Billion valuation All values are in millions of US Dollars

Display Market Cap P/B 5-Year2014 2015 2016 Q1 2014 ROE

LG Display $9,591 $12,712 $27,370 16.1 10.2 9.1 1.0 8.6%

Sam sung Electron ics $185,531 $125,110 $232,715 5.2 4.9 4.7 1.4 20.1%


EnterpriseValue

3. Samsung Display Peers

Source: Bloomberg, Company filings


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Samsung Home Appliance is worth 7x 2013operating profit Whirlpool trades at 7.8x 2014 operating profit

This is the basis of the $11.2 Billion valuationAll values are in $US Billion

Samsung Home Appliance 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015ETotal Revenue 41.0 48.7 42.3 45.0 45.0 52.7 53.4

Visual Display (TV, Monitors) 26.3 28.9 31.3 30.8 29.0 34.0 33.9 Appliance 7.7 10.0 11.0 11.8 13.7 16.1 17.0 Other 7.0 9.8 - 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.6 Operating Profit 2.5 0.4 1.1 2.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 Operating Margin 6% 1% 3% 5% 3% 3% 3%

4. Samsung Home Appliance



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Samsung has been the fastest growing company inthe Home Appliance arena Samsung is strategically well positioned to take

advantage of the smart-home revolution and theconvergence between technology and homeappliances



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Samsung has been making refrigerators since the 1960s Consistently ranked the highest performance product by

Consumer Reports Continues to innovate in the space (Partnership with

SodaStream brings carbonated water to the fridge)



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Samsung is expecting 5.1% CAGR out to 2017



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4. Samsung Home Appliance TV Samsung has had the best selling TVs for the last 8 years Samsung has the #1 brand awareness globally for TVs


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$11.2 Billion valuation for Samsung Home Applianceis a discount to Whirlpools valuation Samsung ought to have a premium valuation due to

the disruptive/innovative products and the outsized

growth All values are in millions of US Dollars

Home Appliance Market Cap P/B 5-Year2014 2015 2016 Q1 2014 ROE

Whirlpool $10,680 $12,280 $19,410 10.9 9.5 10.1 2.3 13.9%General Electric $270,050 $434,451 $149,580 16.0 15.8 14.9 2.0 10.4%

Secto r A verage 13.4 12.7 12.5 2.2 12%

Sam sung Electronics $185,531 $125,110 $232,715 5.2 4.9 4.7 1.4 20.1%


EnterpriseValue

4. Samsung Home Appliance Peers


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Non-core Assets = $60.4 billion

Samsung Semiconductor = $117 billion

Samsung Display = $ 29.7 Billion

Samsung Home Appliance = $11.2 BillionNet Asset Value = $ 218.3 BillionMarket Cap = $ 185 BillionImplied value Samsung Mobile = -$ 33.3 Billion

Samsung valuation so far


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Is the worlds largest manufacturer of cell phonesreally worth -$33 Billion?

Are the risks so high that a business generating$25 Billion operating profit is worth less thannothing!?

Contrarian View: The fear of a mobile implosion

has created a wide margin of safety for thecontrarian investor, not to mention a potentiallylucrative investment opportunity!

5. Samsung IT & Mobile


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Consensus view: Samsung Mobile generates all of their profit from

Galaxy S franchise Lenovo will drive Samsungs operating margins to

3% Apple will be unaffected by this inevitable industry

paradigm shift Growth in smartphones has stagnated and will

likely remain so for the foreseeable future

5. Samsung IT & Mobile


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Samsung IT & Mobile is comprised of: Premium smartphones Low-end smartphones Feature phones Tablets Premium PCs and laptops Networking equipment

All values are in $US BillionSamsung IT & Mobile 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015ETotal Revenue 30.1 35.0 60.7 93.1 125.2 143.2 149.7 Mobile/Tablet 27.8 32.4 48.1 81.8 112.7 127.5 132.3 PC/Laptop - - 10.7 7.7 8.1 10.1 11.4 Networking Equipment 2.3 2.6 1.9 3.7 4.3 5.6 6.0 Operating Profit 3.3 3.7 7.3 17.1 22.5 25.8 26.0 Operating Margin 11% 10% 12% 18% 18% 18% 17%

5. IT & Mobile What is in the group?



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Bifurcated strategy: Focused on the (1) high-end and (2) low-end

Success in the low-end will continue to drive

manufacturing costs lower and bargainingpower with suppliers higher

Success in the high end will be predicated on

high quality products and a strong brandimage

5. Samsung Smartphone Strategy


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Two dominant premium smartphone franchises:(1) Galaxy Note (2) Galaxy S

With the Galaxy Note, Samsung pioneered thePhablet space

5. Samsung Premium Smartphones


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Launched in Q2-2014 Sold 10 million units 10% faster than Samsung Galaxy S4 This successful launch should help dampen the consensus

view that the smartphone business is about to implode

5. Samsung Galaxy S5 Selling Well


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Samsung offers a broad array of low-end phones thateach focus on one different main performancefeature

First phone released with Tizen OS Samsung Z

Samsung Z

Samsung Galaxy Young Samsung Galaxy GrandSamsung Galaxy Active

Samsung Galaxy Ace 3 Samsung Galaxy Star

5. Samsung Low-end Smartphones


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Growth in smartphone units Ericsson 16.5% unit growth CAGR over 5 years Pricing would have to fall by 16.5% annually for the

next 5 years for sales and earnings to remain flat

Myth 2 Debunked: Smartphone Growth


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Samsung is the dominant supplier of smartphones,with 31.2% market share as of Q1-2014

5. Global Smartphone Market Share


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When one includes premium smartphones, low-end smartphones and feature phones, Samsung still stands out as thedominant supplier for mobile devices to the world:

5. Global Cell Phone Market Share


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Samsung has a solid line up of premium tablets Samsung recently announced the launch of new

tablets with 2K resolution (best on market)

5. Samsung Tablets


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According to IDC Samsung took 5% market share directly fromApple in 2013

Samsung now has 22.3% market share in tablets Samsung is the only tablet to gain an real traction against

Apple

5. Samsung Tablets Taking Share from Apple


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Apples enterprise value trades at 8.9x 2014operating profit Samsungs IT & Mobile business is worth at least 8x

2014 (10% discount to Apple) Therefore, Samsung IT & Mobile is worth $208B

All values are in millions of US Dollars

IT & Mobile Market Cap Net Cash P/B 5-Year(debt) 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2014 ROE

Apple $550,930 $133,627 $417,303 $181,382 10.6 10.2 10.0 4.6 27.6%Google $371,340 $53,472 $317,868 $52,280 17.3 14.5 12.3 4.3 18.5%Lenovo $13,271 -$1,500 $14,771 $33,873 16.9 15.2 10.8 4.7 20.3%Microsoft $339,710 $81,100 $258,610 $88,380 11.3 10.5 9.9 4.0 36.3%

IT & M obi le A verage 14.0 12.6 10.7 4.4 26%

Sam sung Electronics $185,531 $60,721 $124,810 $232,715 5.2 4.8 4.7 1.4 20.1%


EnterpriseValue

5. IT & Mobile Whats it worth?


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If the consensus is correct and Lenovo is successful in

driving down Samsungs operating margins to 3%, thenSamsung will still generate $4.3 billion in operating profitfor 2014

Using a 15x multiple this business is worth $64 billion in a

worst case scenario (Lenovo trades at 18x operating profit) In this scenario Samsung Electronics intrinsic value is $283

Billion Upside to Samsung Electronics in this scenario is still 52%

The worst case is more than priced into the stock.Samsung provides a margin of safety for the prudentinvestor even in a (highly unlikely) worst case scenario.

Myth 3 Debunked: Lenovo drives margins to 3%


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Samsungs brand ranked #8 th in the world according to Interbands Top 100 GlobalBrands

Samsung has a premium product and scale like just like its peers on this list Samsungs brand power will help protect against Lenovos aggressive pricing This will mitigate the downside scenario that IT & Mobile is only worth $64B

Except: Brand Matters to Customers!

S i i b d


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Samsung pioneered one of the great rebranding efforts of the modern era #1 brand awareness for Smartphones around the world #1 brand awareness for TVs around the world Lenovo is competing against a lower cost operator that is more widely recognized

in the global market place they have a tall order ahead of them to try and knockdown Samsung

Samsung is a premium brand

k d f h b d


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Samsung advertises more aggressively than Coca-Cola (the most prolific

advertiser) Samsung advertises 4 times more than Apple Despite this focus on the customer, the consensus believes that Apple is far more

immune to competitive pressure on its margins Even if Lenovo or Apple forces Samsung to compete as a low-end player, they will

not need to advertise as aggressively (mitigating the impact on operating margins)

Samsung takes good care of their brand

S k d f h i l


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Samsung is able to advertise more aggressively than Apple because of their

commitment to human capital Samsung employs over 325,000 people, more than 4 times what Apple employs To commemorate the chairman's 25 th anniversary, the employees were paid a $2

billion bonus

Source: Investor Presentation 2013

Samsung takes good care of their people


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Since their venture into the cell

phones business in 1992, Samsunghas amassed a mobile patentportfolio that consists of 16,000patents

Samsung couldnt possible be a

copy-cat if they have amassednearly 50,000 patents since 1989(second only to IBM)

Despite Apples patent victories inthe US, no major victories have

been awarded off home-turf The most recent patent ruling

found that Apple also infringed onSamsungs patents

Myth 4 Debunked: Samsungs Patent Portfolio is Strong

Th S f S


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Samsung was founded by LeeByung-Chul (top), is currentlychaired by Lee Kun Hee (left), andwill be succeeded by Lee Jae-Yong(right)

Samsung is a family ownedbusiness with the current chairmancontrolling 49.7% of voting control

The Lee family has an impeccablerecord for allocating capital togrowing sectors of technology

Each generation has left theirunique mark on the company

Three Stars of Samsung

P T k R d


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Source: Bloomberg, Company Filings

Proven Track Record

E ll C i l All i R C


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Source: Investor Presentation 2013

Excellent Capital Allocation Return on Capx

M t t f th


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While most struggled to keep their heads abovewater in 2009, Samsung set the goal to reach $400billion sales by 2020

So far so good:

Management expects more of the same


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Ah d f th i ti S 1980 S h


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The companys philosophy promotes the idea thatthe individual will grow to be a Samsung man by:

1. Acquiring the capability and the courage for

empowerment2. Growing an internationally oriented mind3. Making use of team spirit and solidarity4. Reminding the employee of the sovereignty of his

existence as the leader , making history for his time5. Thinking in terms of effectiveness , not to beinhibited by past practices and attitudes

6. Cultivating the pioneering attitude

Ahead of their time: Samsungs 1980 Sahoon

C t Ch i L K H


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Age: 72 Chairman since: 1987 Son of Lee Byung-Chul Most notable accomplishment is the

64MB DRAM memory chip, transforming

the formerly bankrupt company into theworldwide memory leader

Chairman Lee wanted to build a brand,not just a product

Today, Samsung has 13 products with #1

global market share all under theSamsung brand

Diagnosed with lung cancer in 2000 Suffered a severe stroke in 2014

Current Chairman: Lee Kun-Hee

C t l t C t R t t i g


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The fabric of the circular holding structure is unraveling 2013: Govt bans cross holding structures, provides tax break for

unwinding of circular holding structures 2014: Chairman Lee tragically suffers a severe stroke 2014: Samsung announced IPO of Samsung SDS, Samsung Everland

Catalyst: Corporate Restructuring

Catal st: Go t Bans Cross Shareholdings


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President Park Geun Hyes government introduced in 2013legislation banning family-run chaebol businesses fromcreating new cross shareholdings, which were blamed by theIntarnational Monetary fund for contributing to the nations1997-1999 financial crisis

The government is also offering tax breaks to encourage thechaebol to unwind existing structures to form moretransparent holding companies

Could Jay Lee use this tax break as an opportunity to transferhis fathers assets in exchange for a conversion of SamsungElectronics into a holding company structure?

Catalyst: Govt Bans Cross Shareholdings

Catalyst: New Chairman Jay Y Lee


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Age: 42 Son of Lee Kun-Hee Graduated from Seoul National

University Graduated from Keio University (Japan) PhD from Hardvard University Fluent in Korean, Japanese and English Brokered the licensing deal with Android

that enabled Samsungs Mobile division

to grow from $35 billion to $135 billionin 5 years Main point of contact for key suppliers

and partners (Google, Apple, Sony, HP)

Catalyst: New Chairman Jay Y Lee

Catalyst: Samsung SDS IPO


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Announced May 8, 2014 Expected to IPO in Q4 2014 Established in 1985 as a data system and

technology consulting company Provides IT and Networking consulting,

customized application integration, ITinfrastructure outsourcing

Catalyst: Samsung SDS IPO

Catalyst: Samsung Everland IPO


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Announced on May 15, 2014 Expected to happen Q1-2015 Everland is a holding company with influential ownership in

Samsung Life (the largest shareholder of Samsung Electronics) This IPO marks the

unraveling of Samsungscircular holding structure

Proceeds are expectedto cover estate taxesfor Jay Lee and family

Catalyst: Samsung Everland IPO

Myth 5 Debunked: History of Share Buybacks


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Lee Kun Hee begansuccession planningfor Jay Lee

Preserving capital became the priority in 2008as the Lee family planned for succession.

Lee Kun Hee sufferssevere stroke

Myth 5 Debunked: History of Share Buybacks

Catalyst: Inevitable Share Buyback


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Chairman Lee Kun-Hee currently has 49.7%voting control of Samsung Electronics

Presumed tax bill is $US 6 billion IPO of SDS and Everland are expected to yield

$3 billion for the family Jay Lee will need to repurchase up to $US 20

billion worth of shares within SamsungElectronics to retain his fathers current votingcontrol

Catalyst: Inevitable Share Buyback


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Conclusion


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Samsung Semiconductor is worth enterprise value Market is ascribing no value to IT & Mobile, Display and

Home Appliances #8 Global Brand Value in the world #1 Brand awareness in Smartphones and TVs 13 Products with #1 market share Improving corporate governance Realigned interests with Lee family Massive share buybacks on the horizon Limited downside given $60.4 billion Non-core Assets

Conclusion


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SamsungElectronics MikeWood 2014 Ac15b1f791 17fe11547c