Sanjay Sethi-Assocham - Actualizing Second Green Revolution

8/12/2019 Sanjay Sethi-Assocham - Actualizing Second Green Revolution

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Small Ideas. Big Revolutions

Actualizing Second Green Revolution11 July, 2012

Sanjay Sethi


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Farming looks mighty easy when your plough

is a pencil and you are a thousand miles from

the cornfield Dwight D. Eisenhower


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Contents

1. Generational opportunities in Food and Agriculture

2. Indias share in World Food Grains Trade

3. Three growth driversIrrigation, Preservation Technologies

and Infrastructure

4. Relevance of irrigation in poverty alleviation

5. A model integrated agricultural projects

6. Concept of a Mega Food Park

7. A case study on Al Khadra Farm in Libya


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Crop Demand

Increasing per capita income will enable a growing population to purchase

more and better food, fuelling the organic growth of agri-business Population growth: The U.N assumes 1.1% population growth over the

next 30 years (a slowdown), expecting world population to exceed 9 billion

by 2050

Calorie intake per capita: Fastest growth in calorie consumption occurs

when income is less than $5,000/ year. 83% of the worlds populationcurrently earns less than $5,000/ year

Quality of diet: Exponential growth in grain production necessary to meet

increasing meat demand. Compositional change in demand as people

switch from starch-based to protein-rich diets. Demand for vegetable oils

will continue to grow Bio fuels: Policies promoting bio fuels across the world and in particular in

the US, are adding to incremental demand


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Crop Supply

Enhanced productivity will be the significant source of incremental crop

production

Most recently net growth has been negligible with declines in the EU and USroughly offsetting growth in Latin America and Asia

Negative factors such as land degradation, industrialization, urbanization,

water restrictions, regulation and importantly climate change may be

increasing

Productivity/ yield gains have accounted for virtually all crop productiongrowth over the last 10 to 15 years however some data suggests that yields

may be slowing on a global basis

Water erosion vulnerability is a significant issue and new productivity gains

will have to be achieved with less water

Currently farmers use 70% of global water supplies but are increasinglycompeting with rapid urbanization for water supplies

China and India in particular will be forced to divert water from agricultural

uses to urban populations, meaning they will become larger importers of grain

than they might have been had water not been a constraining factor


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Generational Opportunity

SOLVING THE SUPPLY SIDE EQUATION = BIGGEST OPPORTUNITIES

Simply increasing land under cultivation not a viable option

Increase yields by better inputs and improving value chain

GM and hybrid seeds largely untapped, can tackle issues from water to nutrition to yield

Hard assets in the storage, processing and refining business help reduce wastage andincrease value

Revolutionary new technologies (agri nanotech?) to transform traditional thinking

GLOBAL FOOD CRISISRising GDP/ Capita in EM Population growth Fragmented marketsIncreasing protein consumption Higher grain demand Rising bio fuel demand

Inadequate government policies Global feedstock's at all-time low Record food prices

Water/ irrigation issues worldwide

The World Needs a Second Green Revolution


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Focus on Biggest Value Opportunities

Seeds

Water

Fertilizer

Machinery

Land Capital

Farmer

Feed

Dairy

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Sanjay Sethi-Assocham - Actualizing Second Green Revolution