View
224
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
1/17
1
CLIMATE CHANGE:CLIMATE CHANGE:Scale & Scope of the Challenge toScale & Scope of the Challenge to
Reduce Global Greenhouse GasReduce Global Greenhouse Gas
EmissionsEmissions
Stephen D. EuleStephen D. Eule
Vice President for Climate and TechnologyVice President for Climate and TechnologyInstitute for 21Institute for 21stst Century EnergyCentury Energy
US Chamber of CommerceUS Chamber of Commerce
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
2/17
2
Where We Are: Making ProgressWhere We Are: Making Progress
Energy Policy Act of 2005
About $14 billion in tax credits for energy efficiency, clean coal, nuclear, renewables, etc. over 10 years Loan Guarantees for new technologies that reduce GHG and air pollution - $67.5 billion available $2 billion in standby support coverage for regulatory delay for 6 new nuclear power plants
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
Renewable Fuels Mandate - 36 billion gallons of biofuels annually by 2022about 20% of projected gasolineusage
Vehicle Fuel Economy Mandate - 35 miles per gallon by 2020
Lighting Mandate - Phase out inefficient (e.g., incandescent) bulbs by 2014 Appliance Mandates Federal Facility Requirements - Reduce energy consumption 30 percent by 2015 & new federal buildings must
be carbon-neutral by 2030
Energy Improvement & Extension Act of 2008
$18 billion in tax credits - Extends many EPAct2005 tax credits
Farm Bill
Significant portion of proposed $50 billion Farm Bill Conservation Programs for terrestrial sequestration
States
RPS in over 26 states 24 states undertaking regulation
Net U.S. GHG emissions in 2006 down 3% since 2000.Net GHG emissions in 2008 will be lower than in 2000.
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
3/17
3
Projected Energy-Related COProjected Energy-Related CO22 Emissions over TimeEmissions over Time
Show Steady Progress in Slowing EmissionsShow Steady Progress in Slowing Emissions
GrowthGrowthProjected energy-related CO2 emissions have steadily decreased since 2002.The EIA AEO 2009
projection of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2020 is nearly 1.7 gigatons CO2 below the comparable levelin the AEO 2002. Projected cumulative emissions avoided from 2009 - 2020 total about 15 gigatons CO2.
Sources: EIAAnnual Energy Outlook2002 through 2009.
AEO 2002
AEO 2009
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
4/17
4
45.1%
21.3%
9.9%
9.6%
9.4%
9.2%
6.8%
6.4%
3.9%
4.8%
0.1%
0.1%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1.7%
-2.9%-3.0%
-6.3%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
China **
Canada
India **
Indonesia **
South Africa **
Brazil **
Mexico **
South Korea **
Russia
Australia
EU-27
Italy
Japan
EU-15
Germany
UKUSA
France
Changes in Net GHG EmissionsChanges in Net GHG Emissions11 2000-2006 from2000-2006 from17 Major Economies17 Major Economies
1 Includes emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons, as well as emissions andremovals of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from land-use, land-use change and forestry activities.** No UNFCCC data available for time period; 2001 through 2005 IEA data used.
Sources: UNFCCC, 2008 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats and IEA Online Energy Services.
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
5/17
5
Climate Change Technology: MeetingClimate Change Technology: Meeting
the Long-Term Global Challengethe Long-Term Global Challenge
To reconcile the desire for global emission reductions and toprovide the energy for continued economic growth and
development, we will have to develop cost-effectivetechnologies that transform the way we produce and use
energy.
Projected World Primary Energy Demand, 1990-2095:A Reference Case Example
CO2 Stabilization Curves
55
37
18
73
Sources: Battelle Global Energy Technology Strategy Project; Climate Change Science Program. 2007, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissionsand Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results).
FossilFuelCO
2Emissions(GtCO
2/yr)
Ej/y
r
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
6/17
6
Reductions in Global Emissions NeededReductions in Global Emissions Needed
to Meet Range of Possible Goalsto Meet Range of Possible Goals
Source: Clarke, L. et al. 2006. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios . Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
Cumulative global emissions reductions ranging from about 1,100 to
3,700 gigatons of CO2 equivalent would be need over the course of
the century to meet a range of atmospheric concentration goals (450
to 750 ppm).
1st GtC Avoided
0
CO
2E
missions(GtCO
2/y
r)
Cumulative Emissions
Cumulative Avoided
Emissions
Unconstrained Emissions Scenario
CO2 Stabilization Scenario
1,100 to 3,700 gigatons of
cumulative CO2 emission
reductions will be needed
to meet a range of
stabilization scenarios
(750 ppm to 450 ppm).
Time
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
7/177
How Big is One Gigaton1 of CO2?
1Gigaton = 109 Metric Tons2 Based on current technology and U.S. data.
Source: Climate Change Technology Program. 2006. Strategic Plan. (Numbers updated and converted from carbon equivalents to carbon dioxide.)
Install 7,700 typical landfill gas electricity projects (typical size being 3 MW projects at non-regulated landfills) that collect landfill methane emissions and use them as fuel for electricgeneration
Electricity fromLandfill Gas Projects
Construct the equivalent of 1,000 sequestration sites like Norways Sliepner project(1.0 MtCO2/year)
GeologicSequestration
Build 320 zero-emission 500-MW coal-fired power plants in lieu of coal-fired plants withoutCO2 capture and storage (73% CF)the equivalent of nearly half U.S. coal-fired nameplate
generating capacity
Coal-Fired PowerPlants
Convert to biomass crop production a barren area about 5.4 times the total land area of Iowa(about 200 million acres)
Biomass fuels fromplantations
Install 1.7 million acres of solar photovoltaics to supplant coal-fired power plants without CO2capture and storage (10% cell DC effcy; 1700 kWh/m2 solar radiance; 90% DC-AC conv.effcy).
Solar Photovoltaics
Actions that Provide1 Gigaton / Year of Mitigation
TodaysTechnology
Convert to new forest a barren area about 2.5 times the total land area of the State ofWashington (over 100 million acres) (Assumes Douglas Fir on Pacific Coast)
CO2 Storage in New
Forest.
Install 170,000 wind turbines (1.5 MW each, operating at 0.45 capacity factor) in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage
Wind Energy
Deploy 290 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of new cars at 20 mpg(12,000 miles per year)
Efficiency
Build 130 new nuclear power plants, each 1 GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plantswithout CO2 capture and storage) (90% CF)
Nuclear
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
8/178
CO
2Emissions(GtC
O2
/yr)
Important Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the ComingImportant Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the Coming
Decades: CODecades: CO22 EmissionsEmissions11 by Region - 2000 & 2050by Region - 2000 & 2050
About 80 to 90% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between
now and 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China,
India & SE Asia.
1
Includes Fossil and other industrial CO2.Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results).
Non-Annex I RegionsAnnex I Regions
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
9/17
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
10/1710
2050 ReferenceEmissions
2050
Annex I
Reference
Emissions
(18.2 Gt)
Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries
2050
Non-Annex I
Reference
Emissions
(32.4 Gt)
Annex I Emissions at20% 2000 Emissions
Annex I Emissions at50% 2000 Emissions
-100%
(-18.2 Gt)
-84%
(-15.2 Gt)
-59%
(-10.7 Gt)
-62%
(-20.1 Gt)-71%
(-23.1 Gt)
-85%
(-27.6 Gt)
1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO2.2 50% of 2000 global GHG emissions equals 12.3 Gt.3 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I).
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results).
2050
Annex I
Emissions
(0 Gt)
2050
Non-Annex I
Emissions
(12.3Gt)
2050
Annex I
Emissions
(3.0 Gt)
2050
Non-Annex I
Emissions
(9.3 Gt)
2050
Annex I
Emissions
(7.4 Gt)
2050
Non-Annex I
Emissions
(4.9 Gt)
Annex I Emissions at0
2000
2000
To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global COTo Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO22 Emissions by 2050,Emissions by 2050,
Need Significant Reductions from Developing CountriesNeed Significant Reductions from Developing Countries
Annual Gigaton CO2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3
CO
2,
Emissions(GtCO
2/yr)
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
11/1711
2050 ReferenceEmissions
Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries
Annex I Emissions at20% 2000 Emissions
Annex I Emissions at50% 2000 Emissions
-100%
-84%
-59%
-62%-71%
-85%
1 Measured as MMTCO2 per million people, excluding LULUCF.
2 50% of 2000 global CO2 emissions equals 12.3 Gt.3 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I).
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results).
Annex I Emissions at0
To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global COTo Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO22 Emissions by 2050,Emissions by 2050,
Per Capita Emissions from Developing Countries Must Go DownPer Capita Emissions from Developing Countries Must Go Down
Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3
2000
Annex I
Reference
Emissions/
Capita
(12.7)
2000
Non-Annex I
Reference
Emissions/
Capita
(4.4)
2050
Annex I
Emissions/
Capita
(0)
2050
Non-Annex I
Emissions/
Capita
(1.7)
2050
Annex I
Emissions/
Capita
(2.1)
2050
Non-Annex I
Emissions/
Capita
(1.3)
2050
Annex I
Emissions/
Capita
(5.2)
2050
Non-Annex I
Emissions/
Capita
(0.7)
CO
2,EmissionsperCapita(M
MTCO2permillionpo
p.)
20002000
20002000
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
12/1712
All three CCSP report models assume sufficient
technological optionsfossil power plants with CCS,nuclear power, and renewable energyto allow for
substantial reductions in global carbon emissions fromelectricity production. In all of the Level 1(450ppm CO2)
stabilization scenarios, the electricity sector undergoessignificant decarbonization by 2050 (see circles) and is
essentially fully decarbonized by 2100.
Percentage of Global Electricity Production fromPercentage of Global Electricity Production from
Low- or Zero-Emissions Technologies AcrossLow- or Zero-Emissions Technologies Across
Scenarios by 2050Scenarios by 2050
Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations.
MERGE MINICAM
IGSM
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
13/1713
Average Annual Power Capacity Additions to
Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050:
2010 to 2050
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Concentrating Solar Power
Photovoltaics
Geothermal
Wind: Off-Shore
Wind: On-Shore
Biomass
Hydropower
Nuclear
Gas-Fired w/ CCS
Coal-Fired w/ CCS
GW/year
Scale of Changes in Power Sector:Scale of Changes in Power Sector:
IEA BLUE Map: 50 by 50IEA BLUE Map: 50 by 50
35 500 MW CCS Coal-Fired Plants
20 500 MW CCS Gas-Fired Plants
32 1,000 MW Nuclear Plants
1/5 Canadian Hydropower Capacity
100 50 MW Biomass Plants
14,000 4 MW Turbines
130 100 MW Geothermal Units
215 million m2
80 250 MW CSP Plants
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
3,750 4 MW Turbines
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
14/1714
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Today 2020
GtCO2/yr
Scale of COScale of CO22 StorageStorage
0
5
10
15
20
25
Today 2020 2050 2100
GtCO2/yr
CO2 Storage Rate at
550 ppmv
Source: Data derived from the Level 2 (approx 550 ppmv)MiniCAM CCSP scenario. See Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H.Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, and R. Richels (2007a).Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A ofSynthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S.Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommitteeon Global Change Research. Washington, D.C.: U.S.
Department of Energy, Office of Biological &Environmental Research.
By 2050, about 1.4 GtCO2/yrmay be required, 30 to 35x
more than today.By the end of the century,
approximately 20 GtCO2/yr may
be required, over 400x morethan today.
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
15/17
15
Average Annual Vehicle Sales: 2010 to 2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
MillionVehiclesPe
rYear
H2 Fuel Cell
Vehicles
Plug-In Hybrid
Vehicles
Biofuel Flex-Fuel
Vehicles
Gasoline & Diesel
Hybrids
Gasoline & DieselConventional
Scale of Changes in Transport Sector:Scale of Changes in Transport Sector:
IEA BLUE Map: 50 by 50IEA BLUE Map: 50 by 50
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
16/17
16
Scale of Biomass Land AreaScale of Biomass Land Area
Land Use Scenario 550 ppmv
Source: Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program ,Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5% annual agricultural activity growth.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Unmanaged
Ecosystems
Managed Forests
Crop Land
Pasture Land
BioEnergy
By 2050, land
use requiredfor bioenergy
crops mayaccount for
approximately4 to 5% of
total land use;by 2095
approximately
20%.
8/14/2019 Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09
17/17