Scaling Up Carbon Fiber - SPE Automotive · 2015-08-28 · Carbon-fiber reclaimer and composite manufacturer Sells recycled chopped carbon fiber in fiber, non-woven mat, and prepeg

Scaling Up Carbon Fiber: Roadmap to Automotive Adoption

Anthony Schiavo

Research Associate

September 2015

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Agenda

Lay of the land and market updates

Key developers in materials and technology

Drivers beyond CFRP technology and the roadmap for adoption

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Agenda




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Composites value chain spans from precursor to end use

Precursor Fiber Intermediate Composite

PAN, rayon, pitch

Carbon fiber

Prepreg

Molded part

Heat, sizing, surface treatment

Add resin, mold

Polyolefin, lignin

Mold

Molded part

Braid, weave, or

spray

Preform

Add resin and braid, weave, or

spray

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CFRP market will grow to $35 billion in 2020

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Automotive CFRP partnerships deepen and proliferate

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Lux carbon fiber cost model takes precursor, processing methods, and fiber tow/grade as inputs

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Only textile PAN will reach full scale by 2020

Meeting automotive cost targets requires adoption of alterative precursors

2013 price

Precursor Oxidation

Carbonization Surface treatment and sizing

Spooling and packaging

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Automotive CFRP market will reach $6 billion in 2020

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Strategic Predictive Tool Methodology

1. Framework: compare a specific emerging material with a mature material of the same framework classification

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0

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120

1950 1952 1954 1956#

of

Pat

ents

1954-1955: Patent

inflection


2. Patents: Identify years in which major shifts in the growth rate of the patent count occurred

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2. Patents: Identify years in which major shifts in the growth rate of the patent count occurred

3. Correlate key patent years with significant commercial adoption milestones

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Patent History of Glass Fiber Gives Insight to the Future Trajectory of Carbon Fiber

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1938

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# o

f P

aten

ts

Glass fiber

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1939-1940: Patent spike


1953: Kaiser Darrin and Chevy Corvette are first production sports cars with fiberglass bodies

1984: Pontiac Fieroisis first mainstream car with fiberglass body

Penetration of Carbon Fiber in Mainstream Automotive Projected in mid-2020s

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0

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100

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450

1975

1977

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# o

f P

aten

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Automotive CFRP



2013: BMW launches i3

Mid-2020’s: Mainstream CFRP use in automotive

expected

Agenda




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Precursor Fiber and

resin Intermediate CFRP Recycling

Innovation spans the carbon fiber composites value chain

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Innovation in Automotive CFRP is Focused on Three Core Areas

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Fibers Resins Processing


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Oak Ridge Carbon Fiber Technology Facility Low-cost carbon fiber production technology

Seeks to reduce carbon fiber cost via energy efficiency enhancements and alternative precursors.

Recently demonstrated pilot-scale production of standard modulus fiber from textile-grade PAN

Established as an open-access carbon fiber research and development (R&D) facility

Also exploring lignin and polyolefin-derived fibers; these remain years out due to poor mechanical performance

Founded the Oak Ridge Carbon Fiber Consortium of major producers and end users of carbon fiber to promote faster technology development

Employees 2013 Revenue

75 $0

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Carbon Nexus Australian research center for carbon fiber and its composites

Seeks to reduce carbon fiber cost via energy efficiency enhancements and alternative precursors

Established as an open access carbon fiber research and development (R&D) facility with funding support from state and federal governments

Collaborating with Quickstep Technologies to develop out-of-autoclave composite manufacturing processes

Incorporates carbon nanomaterials into polyacrylonitrile (PAN) precursor to enhance carbon fiber tensile strength

Clients can consider leveraging this well-funded facility to further their carbon fiber interests, but compare membership specifics with that of the ORNL consortium


30 $0

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IB Steiner Polymer and composite molding technology

Developed Exjection, a thermoplastic and composite molding process similar to injection molding; Exjection decreases the required pressure and clamping force compared to injection molding, reducing equipment costs, and also can be used to produce parts of unlimited length

Partnered with equipment manufacturers Arburg and Engel; customer base includes Airbus, Boeing, and Bombardier

Clients using injection molding, RTM, and other CFRP molding processes should engage with the company or its partners, as this technology could increase throughput and reduce capital costs compared to injection molding


23 $2.6 million

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RocTool Plastic and composite molding equipment using induction heating

Develops molding equipment and processes that use induction heating to more rapidly bring molds to the required temperature

Released a new version of its technology aimed at high-volume composite applications that it claimed eliminate the need for heavy compression equipment, but require higher operating temperatures

Claimed more than 40 licensees operating at scale including Hanwha Azdel, BMW, TenCate, SABIC IP, and Engel

Clients producing molded thermoplastic or composite parts should consider licensing this leader's processes


28 $7.23 million

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Materials Innovation Technologies Carbon-fiber reclaimer and composite manufacturer

Sells recycled chopped carbon fiber in fiber, non-woven mat, and prepeg forms

3-DEP preform process creates complex shapes with very specific fiber orientations; Co-DEP produces thermoplastic composite parts

Development partners include Boeing, GM, and Proterra

Collects scrap CF and CFRPs directly from manufacturers and end users; suppliers include Boeing, Airbus, Ford, and BMW

Clients with large CF disposal or recycling needs, or those interested in chopped-fiber composites for secondary structural applications, should sample its wares


38 $2.5 million

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Larger companies work on resins and molding

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Agenda




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Numerous Factors Contribute to the Pace and Extent of Automotive Adoption

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Long-term megatrends towards urbanization, connectivity, and automation could have even greater impact than materials

Urbanization

Connectivity and

Automation

Materials Revolution

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Safety is a thread that runs through those visions of future, and we are on the cusp of a revolution

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No one will die in a new car by 2030.

Would you choose a crash in Formula 1 car at 200 mph, or in your own car at 50 mph?

Formula 1 safety changed dramatically in 1980s, with

introduction of amazingly light carbon fiber composite body

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5

16 15

12

4 3

0 02468

1012141618

Racing driver

deaths in F1, by

decade

All automakers are already on the road toward driver-assist safety

U.S. government body for vehicle safety “adding two high-tech braking technologies to the list of safety gear it recommends to car shoppers”

This is just the start; 2015 Mercedes S-Class already offers semi-autonomous driving:

Adaptive cruise control up to 200 km/h

Self-steering to keep within lane

Emergency braking from 70 km/h

3

6

3

7

If cars don’t crash, why do they need high strength materials like

carbon fiber?

Conclusions

Growth in automotive since 2012 exceeded expectations, but truly large-volume adoption depends on future technical advances and forward-looking partnerships

While the post-2020 potential market opportunity for CFRPs in automotive is very large relative to traditional applications, the exact timing of adoption that far out is uncertain

Commercial penetration depends on overcoming challenges throughout the value chain to unlock full opportunity – look to emerging developers for partnership opportunities

This is not happening in a vacuum: CFRP developers must beware competitive lightweighting and other innovations that reduce fuel consumption…

…as well as long-term megatrends that could have even greater impact

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Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 Fax: +1 617 502 5301 www.luxresearchinc.com

Thank you

Anthony Schiavo Research Associate [email protected] +1 617 502 5318

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Scaling Up Carbon Fiber - SPE Automotive · 2015-08-28 · Carbon-fiber reclaimer and composite manufacturer Sells recycled chopped carbon fiber in fiber, non-woven mat, and prepeg