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Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics Saariselkä, Finland Tuesday, 14 August 2007
COEVOLUTION OF FINNISH FORESTRY AND SOCIETY FROM PREINDUSTRIAL TO INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY
Dr Matti Palo Independent Scientist [email protected] www.metla.fi/pp/MPal/
WORLD FORESTS, SOCIETY AND ENVIRONMENT
BOOKS DURING WFSE
1. Palo, M. and Mery, G. (eds.) 1996. Sustainable Forestry Challenges for Developing Countries. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Environmental Science and Technology Library Vol. 10. Dordrecht/Boston/London. 384 p.
2. Palo, M. and Uusivuori, J. (eds.) 1999.World Forests, Society and Environment. Kluwer Academic Publishers. World Forests Book Series Volume I. Dordrecht/Boston/London. 404 p.
3. Michie, B. and Kin, S. 1999. A global study of regional trade flows of five groups of forest products. WFSEResearch Program. Helsinki. 79 p.
4. Palo, M. (ed.) 1999. Global Scenarios and Policies on Forest Transitions and Carbon Fluxes. UNU/WIDER. World Development Studies 15, Helsinki. 166 p.
5. Palo, M. and H. Vanhanen (eds.). 2000 (forthcoming). World Forests from Deforestation to Transition? Kluwer Academic Publishers. World Forests Book Series Volume II. Dordrecht/Boston/London. 218 p.
6. Palo, M., Uusivuori, J. and Mery, G. (eds.) 2001.. World Forests, Markets and Policies. Kluwer Academic Publishers. World Forests Book Series Volume III. Dordrecht/Boston/London. 405 p.
7. Wardle, P, Jansky, L., Mery, G., Palo, M., Uusivuori, J. and Vanhanen H. (Eds.) 2003. World forests, society and environment – Executive Summary. United Nations University. Tokyo. 53 p. METLA 2000
Matti Palo, 14 August, 2007
OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. THEORY, METHODS AND DATA
3. SUSTAINED YIELD OF TIMBER Transition de jure 19171950 Tansition de facto 19001910
4. TRANSITION TO INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY
5. ROLES OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC FACTORS
6. CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
WORLD FORESTS, SOCIETY AND ENVIRONMENT
METLA
Forest area in the tropics 19602050
By Palo and Lehto 2000. Data sources: FAO FORIS 1999, World Bank 1998, United Nations 1998.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Updated Forest area Low Pantropical Scenario High Pantropical Scenario Low Continental Scenario High Continental Scenario Low Trend
High Trend
(million hectares)
Total forest cover (% of land area) (number of countries in brackets)
> 70 % (8) 60 to 69 % (10) 50 to 59 % (15) 40 to 49 % (16) 30 to 39 % (22) 20 to 29 % (34) 10 to 19 % (21) 0 to 9 % (42)
(1)
Total forest cover as % of total land area in 168 countries in 2000 (updated 2000 data of FAO SOFO 2005).
in 2003
Korean Society of Forest Economics Conference, 23 June 2004 Jeju Island, Korea
SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY TRANSITIONS IN COSTA RICA, FINLAND, JAPAN AND KOREA: CASE STUDIES AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSES
Research Project Plan for 20042006 by
Matti Palo, YeoChang Youn, SNU and Guillermo A. Navarro CATIE, Costa Rica
PURPOSE OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT
• The first purpose of this research project is to analyse the evolution of closing down deforestation and transitions to Sustained Yield Forestry and towards Sustainable Forest Management in the four successful case study countries. The aims are both to describe and explain these evolutions separately, but with the same methodology, in each country..
• The second purpose is to make a comparative analysis of the case study countries in order to find out the possible generalizations against our theoretical framework of common underlying causes of overcoming deforestation and transition by the successful cases and of continuing deforestation by the unsuccessful cases.
• The third purpose is to make policy proposals based on our study findings in support of closing down deforestation and of supporting transitions of countries towards sustainable forestry in our contemporary world.
• The fourth purpose is to effectively disseminate our findings and contribute to human capacity building, particularly for governments in developing countries, intergovernmental organizations, ODAbodies, academics, NGOs and media.
CONLUSIONS 1 • EFFECTIVE DE JURE LEGISLATION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
TIMBER YIELD IN FINLAND WAS MOBILIZED IN 1917, INTENSIFIED IN 1928 AND COMPLETED IN 1950.
• DE FACTO SUSTAINED TIMBER YIELD/INCREASING GROWING STOCK WAS ACHIEVED IN FINLAND BEFORE THE DE JURE TRANSITION, ALREADY FOR A CENTURY AGO !!
• THIS TRANSITION WAS A CONSEQUENCE OF INCREASES IN VALUE OF FORESTS BASED ON INCREASING EXPORT DEMAND, A GREAT LAND REFORM 17761900, FOREST SERVICE SINCE 1851 AND FORESTRY COLLEGE SINCE 1858. • OUR HYPOTHESES ON THE KEY ROLES OF POLICIES, MARKETS, COMMUNITY AND KNOWLEDGE INSTITUTIONS, PROPERTY RIGHTS AND THE VALUE OF FORESTS FOR SUSTAINABILITY BECAME STRENGTHENED. • AS PRESUMED INTERNATIONAL POLICIES HAD FUNDAMENTAL IMPLICATIONS AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL IN STRENGTHENING THESE PROCESSES PRIMARILY AT THE BILATERAL LEVEL.
CONLUSIONS 2 THE FINDINGS OF THE CASE STUDY OF FINLAND CAN BE GENERALIZED AGAINST ITS THEORY. THE SAME THEORY IS RELEVANT ALSO FOR TROPICAL DEFORESTATION. THEREFORE, WE MAY DRAW PILOT INFERENCES ALSO ON THE TROPICS. ACCORDINGLY, A BALANCED APPLICATION OF POLICY, MARKET, KNOWLEDGE AND COMMUNITY INSTITUTIONS AS WELL AS STRONG AND CLEAR PROPERTY RIGHTS WITH INCREASING VALUE OF THE REMAINING FORESTS ARE FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS IN DECELRATING TROPICAL DEFORESTATION. MOST TROPICAL FORESTS ARE RUN BY SOCIALISTIC FORESTRY UNDER CORRUPTION AND OPEN ACCESS, WHERE DEFORESTATION IS CONTINUING WITHOUT ANY ’INVISIBLE HAND’EFFECT OF INCREASING VALUE OF REMAINING FORESTS. AFTER 62 YEARS OF FAOACIVITIES AND TWO DECADES OF GLOBAL FOREST POLITICS NO DECELERATION IN TROPICAL DEFORESTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SUSTAINED TIMBER YIELD IN TROPICS WILL REMAIN A DISTANT DREAM
Matti Palo, 14 August, 2007
OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. THEORY, METHOD AND DATA
3. SUSTAINED YIELD OF TIMBER Transition de jure 19171950 Tansition de facto 19001910
4. TRANSITION TO INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY
5. ROLES OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC FACTORS
6. CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
Box 1. The typology of preindustrial forestry, industrial forestry and postindustrial forestry (Mather 2001, Pirot et al. 2000)
1. PREINDUSTRIAL FORESTRY: subsistence; open access prevailing traditional knowledge common property – closed access in restricted scale colonization: state ownership–open accessdeforestation
1a. Traditional preindustrial forestry: hunting, fishing, shifting cultivating, gathering of firewood, food, medical plants, etc.
1b. Agrarian forestry: clearing of forests for agriculture, agroforestry, grazing of cattle, fodder, shelter belts, other support to agriculture
2. INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY: sustained or progressive yield of timber; private property prevailing, industrial use of wood prevailing
scientific forestry knowledge, forester education: paradigm formation 3. POSTINDUSTRIAL FORESTRY: sustainable forest
management/forest ecosystem management scientific ecological, sociological, forestry knowledge, forest ecosystem
education, paradigm transition; prevailing private ownership, common and public properties in minority.
SUSTAINABLE FOREST
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Property Property Institutions Institutions
Market Institutions
Knowledge Institutions
Community Institutions
State Regulatory Institutions
Figure 3. Roles of property rights, knowledge and local communities along with state and markets in support of sustainable forestry.
Resource Management Regimes
• Open access
• Common property
• Public property
• Private property
Guidelines for design of property rights
• Full specification of rights & obligations • Separability of rights • Transferability • Exclusivity • Investment security • Enforceability • Equitable distribution • Flexibility
COEVOLUTION
”TWO EVOLVING POPULATIONS COEVOLVE IF AND ONLY IF THEY BOTH HAVE A SIGNIFICANT CAUSAL IMPACT ON EACH OTHER’S ABILITY TO PERSIST” (Murman 2003)
Ecological conditions
Socioecono mic factors
Political factors
Cultural factors
Forest ecosystem
Forestry Forest policy
Forest information
External world Wars, technology, output and input markets, regimes, paradigms, conventions, knowhow, exemplars
Finland
FORESTRY SECTOR
SOCIETY
Figure 4. Model of coevolution of forestry sector and society towards sustainability with impacts from the external world (modified from Palo 1993). Key: solid line = causal impact, dashed line = information flow.
The EuropeanAssociation of Environmental History Conference Matti Palo, 17 February 2005, Firenze
LONGITUDINAL CASE STUDY (Yin 2003):
”Studying the same single case at two or more different points of time.”
”How certain conditions change over time, and the desired time intervals to be selected would reflect the presumed
stages at which the changes would reveal themselves.”
A cross of a contemporary case study and a historical study?
DEFORESTAT ION AND
DEGRADATION
DIRECT LOCAL AGENTS
AGR ICULTURE
COLON IZATION
SH IFT ING CULTIVAT ION
GRAZING
FUELWOOD
LOGG ING
INFRASTRUCTURE
HUMAN W ELFARE
FOREST BASED DEVELOPMENT
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
HUMAN POPULAT ION DOMEST IC DEMANDS
TECHNOLOGY ACCESSIB IL ITY
INTERNAT IONAL POLIT ICS
Po lit ical instability o f goverm ent
Va lue o f forests
Tenure : asymmetric , uncertain
Corruption
Market fa ilu res
Government fa ilu res
Pub lic incentives
Traditional comm ons
Open access
Access ib le forest area C lim ate and o ther
na tural factors
Energy produc tion and phys ical infrastructure
Agricu ltu ral p roduction
+
+ +
+
+
+ +
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
Cum
ulative causation forces
National political factors
International factors
Matti Palo, 14 August, 2007
OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. THEORY, METHOD AND DATA
3. SUSTAINED YIELD OF TIMBER Transition de jure 19171950 Tansition de facto 19001910
4. TRANSITION TO INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY
5. ROLES OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC FACTORS
6. CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
Foto 1.
Figure 5a. Shifting cultivation in Finland in 1860 (Heikinheimo 1914) .
Evolution of forestry legislation 12401917 in Finland with population and income per capita
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Population (millions)
1917 FORESTRY ACT: NO DEFORESTATION/ STATE FORESTER ADMINISTRATION 1886 FORESTRY ACT: NO DEFORESTATION/ POLICE ADMINISTRATION 1858 Forestry College 1857 Liberalization of steampowered sawmills 1851 STATE FORESTRY ADMINISTRATION; REGULATION OF SAWMILLS 1805 Forestry act 1793 Forestry act 1789 Liberalization of farmer forest owners 1757 GRAND LAND REFORM (IMPLEMENTATION 17751935) 1739 Liberalization of sawmills 1734 MOST COMPREHENSIVE FORESTRY ACT 1683 Forestry acts supervised by Department of Mining 1647 FIRST COMPREHENSIVE FORESTRY ACT 1634 First forestry (hunting) administration
1577 Protecting oak from shifting cultivation 1542 King Gustav Vasa declared wildernesses as state forests
1442 King Kristoffer: beginning of state forests; control of hunting; protection of fruit trees/oaks, beeches and apple trees
1347 King Magnus Eriksson: village common forest; illegal use of forest
Oral traditions prevailed before laws in writing and forestry conflicts were solved at provincial tings
GNP/capita (Volume Index, from 1860) 0 100
Autonomous
Finland under
Russia
Kingdom of S
weden
Box 5. THE PRIVATE FORESTRY ACT OF 1917
1. ”Forest shall not be logged in such a way that natural regeneration would be risked.”
2. ”Young coniferous forest should not be logged in conflict with rational thinning.”
3. Implementation by provincial forester, provincial and municipal forestry boards, subordinated to State Forest Service.
4. Obligatory reporting to a municipal forestry board about forthcoming commercial logging.
5. Sanctions by provincial forestry boards: logging ban; the value of illegally logged timber lost, if the ban is violated.
Vested interests Reference group External groups
Acceptance of the law
Implementation
Motivation of local actors
Group activity
Changes in socioeconomic and technological environment, corruption
Law
Changed behavior of local actors
Changes in the forest
Figure 5. A model of transition from de jure to de facto situation under a new law (modified from Stjernquist 1973).
Evolution of forestry legislation in independent Finland with population and income per capita
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Population (millions)
1998 LIBERALIZATION OF FOREST HOLDING MARKET 1997 GENERAL FORESTRY ACT; NATURE CONSERVATION ACT; forest improvement act amendment 1994 State forest administration renewal as a business enterprise 1993 Forest taxation; amendment in private forestry supervision 1990 Amendment in Private Forestry act
1982 Forestry Faculty University of Joensuu
1976 National parks
1967 Amendments in Private Forestry and Forest Improvement acts 1964 Minimum wage regulation for loggers 1961 Fresh water act
1951 Forest Management Associations
1943 Reforestation of degraded forests
1938 National parks 1935 Roundwood scaling act 1928 Private Forestry act: no deforestation/ semiprivate forester administration 1928 Forest Improvement act; protection of housing of loggers 1924 Regulation of forest holding market 1922 Colonization act; forest taxation act 1918 Liberalization of tenants 1917 Forestry act: no deforestation/ state forester administration
GNP/capita (Volume Index, 1926=100) 0 1000
Matti Palo, 14 August 2007
OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. THEORY, METHOD AND DATA
3. SUSTAINED YIELD OF TIMBER Transition de jure 19171950 Tansition de facto 19001910
4. TRANSITION TO INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY
5. ROLES OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC FACTORS
6. CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
Total Population
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
GNP/capita
Total P
opulation (m
illions)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
GNP/capita (V
olum
e Index, 1926=100)
Growing stock of timber, total population and GNP/capita in Finland
Growing stock of timber
Data sources: Statistics Finland, Bank of Finland.
Data source: Myllyntaus et al. 1998.
0
20
40
60
80
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
mill. m 3
Drain
Increment
Increment and drain of growing stock of trees in Finland, 19002000
Data source: Sevola 2000.
FROM DEFORESTATION TO TRANSITION VIA MARKETS
0
100 Forest area /total land area (% ) Deflated Stumpage Price (USD)
Natural + Plantation forest (% )
Natural forest (% ) Plantation forest (% )
Price of standing timber or fuelwood (USD)
Economic development
Figure 5b.Shifting cultivation in Finland in 1913 (Heikinheimo 1914)
Foto 2.
The same site as in Photo 7a but in the 1990s (Erkki Oksanen).
Foto 3.
SUSTAINABLE FOREST
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Property Property Institutions Institutions
Market Institutions
Knowledge Institutions
Community Institutions
State Regulatory Institutions
Figure 3. Roles of property rights, knowledge and local communities along with state and markets in support of sustainable forestry.
METLA 2003
TERMINATING DEFORESTATION 1 (18701920)
1. PROPERTY INSTITUTIONS
GREAT LAND REFORM (isojako) 1776
LIBERATION OF FARMER FOREST OWNERS 1789
2. STATE REGULATORY INSTITUTIONS STATE FOREST SERVICE (metsähallinto) 1851
GENERAL FORESTRY LAW 1886 (weak de facto impact)
3. MARKET INSTITUTIONS (most important) INCREASING REAL STUMPAGE PRICES AND VALUE OF FORESTS
INCREASING INCOMES TO FARMER FOREST OWNERS
INCREASING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
DECREASING PRICES AND INCREASING IMPORTS OF GRAINS
INCREASING LOGGING AND GENERAL LEVEL OF INCOME
INCREASING INDUSTRIALIZATION AND URBANIZATION
SLOWING DOWN OF POPULATION GROWTH
TERMINATING DEFORESTATION 2 (18701920)
4. COMMUNITY INSTITUTIONS
Finnish Society of Forestry (Finska Forstsällskapet) 1879 Two state sponsored consultants to support private forestry 1898 Society of Silviculture (Metsänhoitoyhdistys) Tapio 1907 Local Forestry Management Associations 1907
5. KNOWLEDGE INSTITUTIONS
Two textbooks on forestry by Finns 1830 and 1851 20 Finnish students graduated in forestry in Tharant 18501860 College of Forestry 18581907 University School of Forestry 1908 Forest ranger schools 1875/1905
Real stumpage prices of saw logs in Finland, 19201960
Fi markka/cubic foot in 1964 prices
2.0 %/a
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
Data source: Sivonen 1970.
Matti Palo, 14 August 2007
OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. THEORY, METHOD AND DATA
3. SUSTAINED YIELD OF TIMBER Transition de jure 19171950 Tansition de facto 19001910
4. TRANSITION TO INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY
5. ROLES OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC FACTORS
6. CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
0
20
40
60
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Industrial wood
Total
Nonindustrial wood
mill. m 3
Utilization of roundwood in Finland, 18602000
Data source: Sevola 2000.
Matti Palo, 14 August 2007
OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. THEORETICAL FRAME
3. SUSTAINED YIELD OF TIMBER Transition de jure 19171950 Tansition de facto 19001910
4. TRANSITION TO INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY
5. ROLES OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC FACTORS
6. CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
Ecological conditions
Socioecono mic factors
Political factors
Cultural factors
Forest ecosystem
Forestry Forest policy
Forest information
External world Wars, technology, output and input markets, regimes, paradigms, conventions, knowhow, exemplars
Finland
FORESTRY SECTOR
SOCIETY
Figure 4. Model of coevolution of forestry sector and society towards sustainability with impacts from the external world (modified from Palo 1993). Key: solid line = causal impact, dashed line = information flow.
Figure 7.The share of forest products of the value of total exports from Finland 18601996 (Seppälä et al. 1980, Statistics Finland 19831997).
Total value of exports of Finland, 19702003
INTERNATIONAL FOREST POLITICS IN 17001959
INTERNATIONAL WARS AND COLONIZATION FOR TIMBER HUNT BY BRITAIN, FRANCE, GERMANY, USA, ITALY, JAPAN, RUSSIA, NETHERLANDS, BELGIUM IN PARTICULAR
TRANSFERS OF GERMAN FORESTRY PARADIGM TO RUSSIA, DENMARK, INDIA, JAPAN, NORWAY, SWEDEN, FINLAND, USA, CANADA, etc.
EXCHANGES OF STUDENTS AND TEACHERS, OTHER CONSULTANCES, RESEARCH FINDINGS AND TEXTBOOKS
1892 IUFRO WAS ESTABLISHED AMONG THE GERMAN SPEAKING NATIONS 1927 WORLD FORESTRY CONGRESS I IN ROMA
IN 1932: TIMBER TRADE MEETING OF EXPERTS IN GENEVE BY THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS IN 1932: COMITE INTERNATIONAL DE BOIS CIB WAS ESTABLISHED IN VIENNA
1935 IN COPENHAGEN AND 1936 IN HELSINKI: CONVENTION OF THE EUROPEAN TIMBER EXPORTERS
1936 WORLD FORESTRY CONGRESS II IN BUDAPEST 1939 IN BERLIN: CENTRE INTERNATIONAL DE SYLVICULTURE CIS
1939 WORLD FORESTRY INSTITUTE IN THARANT/HAMBURG 1945 IN ROMA: FAO ESTABLISHED A DIVISION OF FORESTRY AS A WORLD FOREST
STATISTICS CLEARING HOUSE 1948 IN HELSINKI: WORLD FORESTRY CONGRESS III: ”PROGRESSIVE FORESTRY”
1954 IN DEHRA DUN, INDIA: WORLD FORESTRY CONGRESS IV
Labor input in forestry
Figure 15. Labor input in Finnish forestry since 1860.(Elovirta 1987)
Felling a tree by a twoman manual saw (for big trees) in the early 20 th century. Most logging took place during winter.
Bucking a tree by oneman manual saw of wooden frames, which was used for small trees. Work efficiency study is going on.
Felling a tree with steelframed manual saw.
Debarking a log with a manual tool (petkele).
Extraction of logs by a horse and sledge. Snow and frost lowered the costs of extraction.
Metsätalo/Forest Building in 1939 in the downtown Helsinki.
Matti Palo, 14 August 2007
OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. THEORY, METHOD AND DATA
3. SUSTAINED YIELD OF TIMBER Transition de jure 19171950 Tansition de facto 19001910
4. TRANSITION TO INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY
5. ROLES OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC FACTORS
6. CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
CONLUSIONS 1 • EFFECTIVE DE JURE LEGISLATION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
TIMBER YIELD IN FINLAND WAS MOBILIZED IN 1917, INTENSIFIED IN 1928 AND COMPLETED IN 1950.
• DE FACTO SUSTAINED TIMBER YIELD/INCREASING GROWING STOCK WAS ACHIEVED IN FINLAND BEFORE THE DE JURE TRANSITION, ALREADY FOR A CENTURY AGO !!
• THIS TRANSITION WAS A CONSEQUENCE OF INCREASES IN VALUE OF FORESTS BASED ON INCREASING EXPORT DEMAND, A GREAT LAND REFORM 17761900, FOREST SERVICE SINCE 1851 AND FORESTRY COLLEGE SINCE 1858. • OUR HYPOTHESES ON THE KEY ROLES OF POLICIES, MARKETS, COMMUNITY AND KNOWLEDGE INSTITUTIONS, PROPERTY RIGHTS AND THE VALUE OF FORESTS FOR SUSTAINABILITY BECAME STRENGTHENED. • AS PRESUMED INTERNATIONAL POLICIES HAD FUNDAMENTAL IMPLICATIONS AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL IN STRENGTHENING THESE PROCESSES PRIMARILY AT THE BILATERAL LEVEL.
CONLUSIONS 2 THE FINDINGS OF THE CASE STUDY OF FINLAND CAN BE GENERALIZED AGAINST ITS THEORY. THE SAME THEORY IS RELEVANT ALSO FOR TROPICAL DEFORESTATION. THEREFORE, WE MAY DRAW PILOT INFERENCES ALSO ON THE TROPICS. ACCORDINGLY, A BALANCED APPLICATION OF POLICY, MARKET, KNOWLEDGE AND COMMUNITY INSTITUTIONS AS WELL AS STRONG AND CLEAR PROPERTY RIGHTS WITH INCREASING VALUE OF THE REMAINING FORESTS ARE FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS IN DECELRATING TROPICAL DEFORESTATION. MOST TROPICAL FORESTS ARE RUN BY SOCIALISTIC FORESTRY UNDER CORRUPTION AND OPEN ACCESS, WHERE DEFORESTATION IS CONTINUING WITHOUT ANY ’INVISIBLE HAND’EFFECT OF INCREASING VALUE OF REMAINING FORESTS. AFTER 62 YEARS OF FAOACIVITIES AND TWO DECADES OF GLOBAL FOREST POLITICS NO DECELERATION IN TROPICAL DEFORESTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SUSTAINED TIMBER YIELD IN TROPICS WILL REMAIN A DISTANT DREAM
Forest area in the tropics 19602050
By Palo and Lehto 2000. Data sources: FAO FORIS 1999, World Bank 1998, United Nations 1998.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Updated Forest area Low Pantropical Scenario High Pantropical Scenario Low Continental Scenario High Continental Scenario Low Trend
High Trend
(million hectares)
DEFORESTAT ION AND
DEGRADATION
DIRECT LOCAL AGENTS
AGR ICULTURE
COLON IZATION
SH IFT ING CULTIVAT ION
GRAZING
FUELWOOD
LOGG ING
INFRASTRUCTURE
HUMAN W ELFARE
FOREST BASED DEVELOPMENT
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
HUMAN POPULAT ION DOMEST IC DEMANDS
TECHNOLOGY ACCESSIB IL ITY
INTERNAT IONAL POLIT ICS
Po lit ical instability o f goverm ent
Va lue o f forests
Tenure : asymmetric , uncertain
Corruption
Market fa ilu res
Government fa ilu res
Pub lic incentives
Traditional comm ons
Open access
Access ib le forest area C lim ate and o ther
na tural factors
Energy produc tion and phys ical infrastructure
Agricu ltu ral p roduction
+
+ +
+
+
+ +
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
Cum
ulative causation forces
National political factors
International factors
REFERENCES 1
Palo, M., Youn, YC. and Navarro, G. 2004. Evolution and transitions to sustainable forestry in Costa Rica, Finland, Japan and Korea. A Research Plan. Seoul. 37 p.
Palo, M. 2006. Coevolution of forestry and society in Finland: from preindustrial to industrial forestry. In Rauhalahti, M. (Ed.): Essays on the history of Finnish forestry. Vuosilusto 20042005. Metsähistorian seura ry. Lusto. Punkaharju. Finland.
References 2
Palo, M. 2004. POVERTY REDUCTION BY TROPICAL FORESTS: rhetoric or a viable option? In Sim, H. C., Appanah, S. and Youn, Y. C. (Eds.): Forests for poverty reduction: Opportunities for Clean Development Mechanism, environmental services and biodiversity, p. 7 24. FAO Regional Office. Bankok.
Palo, M. and Lehto, E. 2005. Poverty reduction by tropical forests? In Tyynelä, T. and Pelkonen, P. (Eds.): In search of a total value for forests. Silva Carelica 50, p. 4461.
Matti Palo, 14 August 2007
OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. THEORY, METHOD AND DATA
3. SUSTAINED YIELD OF TIMBER Transition de jure 19171950 Tansition de facto 19001910
4. TRANSITION TO INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY
5. ROLES OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC FACTORS
6. CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
European Association of Environmental History Conference, 17 February 2005 Firenze
KIITOKSET MIELENKIINNOSTA! THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Dr Matti Palo Independent Scientist [email protected]
www.metla.fi/pp/MPal/
Foto 4.
YOUR QUESTIONS &
COMMENTS ?
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