Scenario building for future watermanagement in the Chakir Basin

Professor V.A. Dukhovny14 December, 2006 , Hohenheim

Population

83%

9%8%

Uzbe kistan*Tas.province **Tashke nt city

Export/import in Tashke nt province

56%

44% ExportImport

Gross production vo lume

76%

16%

8%

Uzbe kistan*

Tas.province **Tashke nt city

Agricultura l production

89%

11%

Uzbe kistan*Tas.province **

Industria l production

69%

18%

13%

Uzbe kistan*Tas.province **Tashke nt city

Ele ctric e ne rgy production

55%44%

1%

Uzbe kistan*

Tas.province **Tashke ntcity

Scenarios as

a part of SP

indicator of water sufficiency limitation

information tools requirement

SP

EUFWD MDGs

Analyze Scenarios Plan actions

IWRM principles

Data base

DSS

LAM

H Mod Agrarian

SEM Environment

Priority

Public opinion

Potential of development

Institutions

Law

Governance in water

Monitoring system

MS Ecological

situation and biodiversity

Water – soil - relations

data base

inform. system

modeling

risk analyze

Dependence of population wellbeingon Water Sector

525827Contribution ofwater to generationof national income,%

184073 %

9439100 %

126052 %

Water availabilityby own waterresources,m3/cap/year

0.10.20.3Irrigated area percapita, ha

685332Employment inWater – connectedsphere %

59.66644Rural population, %UzbekistanKyrgyzstanKazakhstanParameter

Analytical survey� assessment of the environment� assessment of present water conditions� identification of destabilizing factors� assessment of existing material,

financial and other resources� evaluation of available water

development� assessment of institutional and legal

aspects� identification of the key challenges of

future development

Growth of population, %

Saldo of migration populationpersons

Dynamic of investment on all sourceson Tashkent province, mln. $

Present environmentallosses:

Toxicological risk – 3.3 mln USD:Fish productivity – 1.05 mln USD;Human health – 10.0 mln USD;Agricultural – 12.5 mln USD.

Future socio-economic development isdetermined by a few key lines that arecharacterized by the following indicators:

� demographic indicators (growth, morbidity,migration, employment);

� gross national income and its growth rates;� change in industrial production volume;(?)� change of energy demands and

requirement;� change in volume of service sector output;� capital investments, including local, loans,

foreign;(?)� capacities to meet national food demand.

Dynamics of main crop yields inTashkent province, t/ha

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

c e r e a ls 2 , 4 2 , 2 1 , 9 2 , 9 3 , 2 4 , 1c o r n 7 , 5 3 , 4 3 , 6 2 , 5 3 , 1 3 , 7r ic e 5 , 5 5 , 3 5 , 1 3 , 4 3 , 7 4r a w c o t t o n 3 , 7 3 , 1 2 , 9 2 , 6 2 , 4 2p o t a t o 1 0 , 5 8 , 7 6 , 5 9 , 2 1 5 , 5 2 1 , 2v e g e t a b le s 2 4 2 2 , 5 2 1 , 8 2 0 , 9 2 2 , 6 2 2 , 5c u c u r b i t s 1 8 , 2 1 7 , 6 1 6 , 2 1 3 1 6 , 9 1 7

1 9 8 1 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 3

Specific driving forces for countries intransition (1)

� Socio-economic scenario

� Demography:

� Transnational migration of population;� Internal migration – urban - rural;� Internal zonal migration;� Resettlement of qualified staff.

� Macroeconomics:

� State priorities;� Industrial decline and available non-used capacities;� Transport availability;� Investment possibilities;

� Foreign investments;� Investment climate;� Internal market and internal prices.

c) agricultural development

� Public policy on restructurization and planning;� Agricultural support;� Water and irrigation priorities;� Possibility and wish to reclaim and develop irrigated

lands;� Family support;� Service and market infrastructure establishment;� Extension service;� Price and tax system;� Link with the world food market;� Ratio between market and purchasing prices.

Relationship between yield of land incooperative and private farms, tn/ha on2003

1.4129.921.10Potato

1.775.73.21Fruits

2.054.92.38Grape

1.3430.322.48Vegetable

1.194.63.84Corn

RatioPrivatefarms

Cooperativefarms

Crop

Dynamics of production volumesper sector for 1990-2003.

Volume s of production pe r e conomic se ctor (million $/ye ar)

0,0

500,0

1000,0

1500,0

2000,0

2500,0

3000,0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Indus try AgroIndus try S ervices Agriculture

Sequence of combination ofScenarios

�Water resource (regime, quantity) arecreated by combination of four options –two climatic and two water farming

C 2 WoptC 2 W02C 1 WoptC 1 W01

WoptW0

Water developmentscenarios

ClimaticScenarios

��Water demand is defined on the basisWater demand is defined on the basisof building boundary curves for social-of building boundary curves for social-economic and agricultural scenarioseconomic and agricultural scenarios(BAU and optimistic) by the(BAU and optimistic) by thecomparison of needed and requiredcomparison of needed and requiredinvestments. Combination balanceinvestments. Combination balancebetween Water resources and waterbetween Water resources and waterdemands will permit to checkdemands will permit to checkrequirement of environmentalrequirement of environmentalscenarios.scenarios.

• Population growth trend is at the same level (forboth rural and urban population)

• Economic growth at current level (2003-2005)• Economic structure without changes• Industry and services without changes• Capital investment amount at the same level• Extension of private farming, gradual transition to

free market economy.• As to irrigated agriculture, no changes in:

� institutional aspects of water management and actual waterdelivery regime;

� costs for rehabilitation and maintenance of inter- and on-farmirrigation and drainage systems.

� machinery maintenance costs.

Business as usual scenario

Stable population

• Moderate, sustainable economicgrowth.

• Gradual sustainable industrialdevelopment, full use of potential.

• Increased role of private small andmedium scale business.

• In irrigated agriculture:� speeded up privatization of farms, with

appropriate raise in farmers’ income;� institutional changes, implementation of IWRM;

Optimistic scenario

Socia l economic and agriculture scenarius

22002600

4800

460 5201058

1900

480

2800

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2003 2010 2020 2030

Optim is tic SE Optim is tic a gricultura l BAU SE BAU a griculture

F Volum e of production m ln.USD

15000

450

Inv

d i r e c t c o u p l i n g b a c k c o u p l i n g i n f o r m a t i o n p r o v i s i o n i n t e g r a t i o n

D i a g r a m o f r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n m o d e l s

C l i m a t i c b l o c k a n d W e i m o d e l

H B W – I W S f l o w f o r m a t i o n

z o n e

D B

M o d f l o w ( g r o u n d w a t e r )

W E A P – • i r - s y s t e m m o d e l ; • o t h e r r e q u i r e m e n t s

H B W G A M S -C h i r c h i k m o d e l

• b a l a n c e • r e g u l a t i o n

M o s D e w

S E M

M o n e r i s

Q u a l - C h i r c h i k i n c l u d i n g W a v e

S L Y S Y S - C h i r c h i k

How to find needed scenario ?Sequence of options . .

•• Restructuring of farmsRestructuring of farms•• Increasing input of fertilizersIncreasing input of fertilizers•• Change of crop patternsChange of crop patterns•• Approach to credit lineApproach to credit line•• Reallocation of state investmentsReallocation of state investments•• Rehabilitation of irrigation systemRehabilitation of irrigation system•• Modernization of irrigation techniqueModernization of irrigation technique•• Creation of market infrastructureCreation of market infrastructure•• And othersAnd others

COMPARISON OF INDICATORS FORSELECTION OF SCENARIOS

• Balance of water: resources and demands• Balance of investments in sectors and total• Satisfaction of ecological requirement• Growth of GDP per capita• Growth of employment• Balance of energy: resources and demands• Satisfaction of food basket

Managing system of water resourcesBWO “Syrdarya”Transboundary surface waters

ICWC

Keles irrigation unit

South Kazakhstan

province SCWR26 th. ha

Chichik basinorganization of

irrigation systems,Minagrowater Uz

382 th. ha

Reservoirs and HESJSC “Uzbekpower”2,5km3, 1230 MWt

Ground waters confirmed resources Ministry of

Geology

Irrigation systems and water canals

WUAs shirkats state farms

Transfer to hydro environmentalTransfer to hydro environmentalmanagement (proposal)management (proposal)

Council of CHAKIR subbasin

BWO Syrdarya Water Council

Public council of

KIS

Keles irrigation unit

Reservouirs and HES

Management Board

Chirchik Basin Irrigation System

Federation of WUA

NGOs Chakir

federation

Tashkent province

Sounth Kazakh province

Djalalabad province

En

viro

nmen

tal C

omm

etee

s