SCENARIOSCENARIO: : CONTINUED GROWTH CONTINUED GROWTH

TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY

--Virtual Manoa----Virtual Manoa--October 23, 2008October 23, 2008

Josh -- Lisa -- Reid -- WilliamJosh -- Lisa -- Reid -- William

Premises:Premises: The rate of change over the next 50 years The rate of change over the next 50 years

will accelerate.will accelerate.– Energy: Hawaii will develop a Energy: Hawaii will develop a decentralized power grid decentralized power grid capitalizing on wave, wind, capitalizing on wave, wind, geothermal, and solar. geothermal, and solar. – Demographics: Hawaii’s population will have Demographics: Hawaii’s population will have

stabilized due, in part, to its limited physical stabilized due, in part, to its limited physical size. While still centered on Oahu, Kauai and size. While still centered on Oahu, Kauai and Hawaii will grow faster -- water and space Hawaii will grow faster -- water and space plentiful; agricultural and energy production.plentiful; agricultural and energy production.

– Climate change: In Hawaii, moderated by Ocean. Climate change: In Hawaii, moderated by Ocean. Water level rise accommodated through Water level rise accommodated through relocating infrastructure inland and elevating relocating infrastructure inland and elevating architecture and transportation. Coastal zone architecture and transportation. Coastal zone flooding will provide for both transportation and flooding will provide for both transportation and aquaculture.aquaculture.

TechnologyTechnology ““Information Age” will still be growing in Information Age” will still be growing in

accordance with Moore's Law, creating new accordance with Moore's Law, creating new opportunities for industrial as well as social uses. opportunities for industrial as well as social uses. Applications employing robotics and artificial Applications employing robotics and artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, intelligence, genetic engineering, nanotechnology, and new materials will be nanotechnology, and new materials will be

ubiquitous.ubiquitous.

Hints at transcendence beyond the information Hints at transcendence beyond the information age to a new paradigm will begin to have age to a new paradigm will begin to have influence.influence.

So What’s Possible?So What’s Possible? Intelligent MachinesIntelligent Machines Extended/ Eternal LifeExtended/ Eternal Life Synthetic LifeSynthetic Life Repairing Manipulating Repairing Manipulating

DNADNA Personalized DrugsPersonalized Drugs Human Cloning Human Cloning Instant pain relief Instant pain relief Downloadable memoriesDownloadable memories Complete digital Complete digital

recording or liferecording or life Dream ControlDream Control Underground cities Underground cities

Instant informationInstant information Moving cities Moving cities iAnythingiAnything Holographic messaging Holographic messaging Internet implantInternet implant Language translation Language translation

implant implant Quantum ComputersQuantum Computers Weather controlWeather control Contact lens Displays Contact lens Displays Energy force fields Energy force fields Self washing clothingSelf washing clothing Artificial Black Holes Artificial Black Holes

What’s possible cont…What’s possible cont… Traveling Faster and Traveling Faster and

lighterlighter Invisibility cloaks Invisibility cloaks Self replicating machinesSelf replicating machines Artificial Worm holes Artificial Worm holes Personal RobotsPersonal Robots Exoskeletons Exoskeletons Robot Partners Robot Partners Digital Money Digital Money Cashless society Cashless society Personal Advertising Personal Advertising Mental Entertainment Mental Entertainment Paperless Society Paperless Society

Space elevatorSpace elevator Colonizing spaceColonizing space Planetary FormationPlanetary Formation Orbital Stations Orbital Stations Self driving cars Self driving cars Flying cars Flying cars TeleportationTeleportation Time MachineTime Machine Flying BootsFlying Boots Ion propulsion Ion propulsion Electromagnetic Electromagnetic

propulsion propulsion

Ascendance of Virtual WorldsAscendance of Virtual Worlds In 2008, Virtual Worlds (VW) focus on In 2008, Virtual Worlds (VW) focus on

entertainment, gaming, and socialization as well entertainment, gaming, and socialization as well as for providing a training venue (e.g., simulators, as for providing a training venue (e.g., simulators, IBM's virtual campus, and Second Life). IBM's virtual campus, and Second Life).

Current barriers to total emersion are (1) the Current barriers to total emersion are (1) the degree of perception that it is a "real" event; degree of perception that it is a "real" event; and (2) bandwidth (number of simultaneous and (2) bandwidth (number of simultaneous interacting users). Greater sophistication in interacting users). Greater sophistication in sensory input/output are rapidly evolving. sensory input/output are rapidly evolving.

VWs are populated by over 50-million active VWs are populated by over 50-million active users with increasing representation by women users with increasing representation by women and minorities. The number of users that can and minorities. The number of users that can interact simultaneously (i.e., as a group) will interact simultaneously (i.e., as a group) will increase to over 500 by 2010. increase to over 500 by 2010.

Average VW users are online in VWs 18+ Average VW users are online in VWs 18+ hours/week.hours/week.

Virtual RealityVirtual Reality

Shared SpaceShared Space ImmediacyImmediacy InteractivityInteractivity PersistencePersistence Socializing Socializing Gaming Gaming Political ExpressionPolitical Expression Military Training Military Training

Virtual Socializing / GamingVirtual Socializing / Gaming ““MMORPG”MMORPG”

– Massive Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games Massive Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games Competitive Events Competitive Events Strongly Influenced by Fantasy, Science Strongly Influenced by Fantasy, Science

Fiction, and Anime Genres of literature and Fiction, and Anime Genres of literature and Film. Film.

Current role playing games: Current role playing games: – Everquest, Lineage 2, and World of Warcraft Everquest, Lineage 2, and World of Warcraft

Political ExpressionPolitical Expression

Virtual Worlds can Virtual Worlds can serve as political serve as political forums forums

Political Political experimentsexperiments

Current Example: Current Example: – AgoraXchange AgoraXchange

Virtual EducationVirtual Education What is now considered non-traditional What is now considered non-traditional

“long distance” learning will be the norm, “long distance” learning will be the norm, taking advantage of computer-based virtual taking advantage of computer-based virtual campuses. campuses.

Technology will enable teaching Technology will enable teaching methodologies that are today methodologies that are today

only just being envisioned and only just being envisioned and applied in experimental or prototype form.applied in experimental or prototype form. Coupled with advances in neuroscience and Coupled with advances in neuroscience and

educational psychology, VW education educational psychology, VW education systems show great potential.systems show great potential.

Whatever facilitates communication will Whatever facilitates communication will flourish.flourish.

Premise of UHPremise of UH

By 2050, UH’s educational setting By 2050, UH’s educational setting will have changed from a will have changed from a predominantly physical venue (i.e., predominantly physical venue (i.e., the physical campus with its the physical campus with its attendant architecture) to a largely attendant architecture) to a largely virtual one. virtual one.

Manoa will serve largely a social Manoa will serve largely a social center and administrative center and administrative headquarters (with recognition that headquarters (with recognition that the physical location of the physical location of administrative function need not be administrative function need not be located at Manoa).located at Manoa).

Virtual Manoa Provides:Virtual Manoa Provides: Opportunities to experiment with novel educational Opportunities to experiment with novel educational

methods, designs and concepts. methods, designs and concepts. Infinitely flexibility and adaptability.Infinitely flexibility and adaptability. Participation of essentially unlimited number of Participation of essentially unlimited number of

students.students. Very low costs/student. Costs can be reduced Very low costs/student. Costs can be reduced

through competitive global marketplace. through competitive global marketplace. Instant global access; the physical location of the Instant global access; the physical location of the

student, teachers, library, administration, and student, teachers, library, administration, and computer servers is irrelevant. Programming and computer servers is irrelevant. Programming and tech support can be located anywhere with access tech support can be located anywhere with access to professional management and security.to professional management and security.

Translation programs allowing participation Translation programs allowing participation of international students and faculty.of international students and faculty.

No physical barriers to students/faculty.No physical barriers to students/faculty. Library fully accessible. Library fully accessible. Avatar (robotic) tutors.Avatar (robotic) tutors. Immersion in situational Immersion in situational learning; location and scale learning; location and scale become irrelevant.become irrelevant. Instantaneous assessment of achievement Instantaneous assessment of achievement

and other metrics aiding in identifying flaws and other metrics aiding in identifying flaws quickly and cheaply. Curriculum changes, quickly and cheaply. Curriculum changes, teaching methods, etc. can be adjusted teaching methods, etc. can be adjusted accordingly. accordingly.

Students select teaching styles and Students select teaching styles and environments suitable for that individual’s environments suitable for that individual’s temperament. For example, meet temperament. For example, meet individually with an avatar for one-on-one individually with an avatar for one-on-one mentoring; with a group in a smaller, mentoring; with a group in a smaller, classroom lecture format; or become classroom lecture format; or become involved in a game to learn skills. involved in a game to learn skills.

Time of participation adaptable to each Time of participation adaptable to each student’s individual schedule and learning student’s individual schedule and learning speed. speed.

Testing is uniform, less threatening and Testing is uniform, less threatening and instructive rather than punitive. instructive rather than punitive.

Learning in VW environment would best Learning in VW environment would best prepare many students for eventual prepare many students for eventual working in virtual environments. working in virtual environments.

Need for physical transportation Need for physical transportation becomes negligible.becomes negligible.

VW setting would accommodate VW setting would accommodate anyone, including older and younger anyone, including older and younger students, providing easy access to students, providing easy access to high schools.high schools.

All communities have access to All communities have access to resources.resources.

ArchitectureArchitecture Computer infrastructure can be located anywhere Computer infrastructure can be located anywhere

it is most efficient, secure, and accessible to it is most efficient, secure, and accessible to technical support. technical support.

It may be advantageous It may be advantageous to maintain UH management to maintain UH management in Manoa (but…..why?)in Manoa (but…..why?) Manoa campus supports some Manoa campus supports some facility to allow students personal contact if facility to allow students personal contact if

needed. However, the total immersion into a needed. However, the total immersion into a virtual reality of an educational venue cannot be virtual reality of an educational venue cannot be overstressed. overstressed.

Those wishing to live in an educational Those wishing to live in an educational community in Manoa could be encouraged, with community in Manoa could be encouraged, with the “physical” Manoa providing residence halls the “physical” Manoa providing residence halls and venues for both formal and impromptu and venues for both formal and impromptu academic sessions.academic sessions.

Manoa's main function would be to serve Manoa's main function would be to serve as a social hub for the greater University as a social hub for the greater University and provide those services not available in and provide those services not available in a virtual setting, such as sports and some a virtual setting, such as sports and some arts, including performance arts requiring arts, including performance arts requiring physical presence (dance, ensemble physical presence (dance, ensemble musical performance, sculpture, etc.). musical performance, sculpture, etc.). Accordingly, the landscaping, architecture, Accordingly, the landscaping, architecture, and other features of the physical Manoa and other features of the physical Manoa may best be designed to combine social may best be designed to combine social and academic interaction and the arts.and academic interaction and the arts.