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SCENARIO PLANNINGVISITOR ATTRACTIONS UNITE FOR COVID-19
THIS SESSION WILL BE RECORDED, SLIDES DISTRIBUTED
WEBINAR: Scenario planning
www.dexibit.com
AGENDA
1. Scenario planning at
MoMA
2. Predicting the
unpredictable
3. Imaging assumptions and
operating conditions
4. Responding strategically
5. Building a simulation
Q&A to follow
Pip Gilbert, VP ProductDexibit
Angie Judge, Chief Executive
Dexibit
Diana Pan,Chief Technology Officer
MoMA
Free during COVID-19
SCENARIO SIMULATION
Plan for an uncertain future by modelling visitorship under various assumptions, down to the day and up to a year ahead.
Sign up attour.dexibit.com
© Copyright 2020 Dexibit. All Rights Reserved. www.dexibit.com
Scenario planning in a crisis
Diana Pan, Chief Technology Officer
Q&A Diana Pan, Chief Technology Officer
Predicting the unpredictable
Scenario planning
© Copyright 2020 Dexibit. All Rights Reserved. www.dexibit.com
© Copyright 2020 Dexibit Limited. All Rights Reserved. www.dexibit.com
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RiseLeadership, finance, marketing, insights, HR
Once the situation eases, begin scaling carefully, monitoring to determine how markets react. Growth may be slower and more volatile than prior to the situation, with new trends and patterns emerging and old business assumptions may not be true. Carefully monitor the performance of strategies and tactics.
Make sure you have sufficient runway following the conclusion of the crisis to invest heavily in growth generation strategies during a volatile environment
SimulateFinance, insights
Analyze impacts to date and begin simulation of various future scenarios. Implement monitoring to carefully track performance against scenario, with actions at hand.
AssessLeadership
Calmly assess government advice and news updates. Bring leadership team together, pull continuing plans, determine a response action and begin intense communications.
RespondBoard, management, IT, HR, legal, operations, visitor services
Enact continuity plans, including closures and limitations, travel restrictions and work from home. Consider impacts and communicate accordingly to staff and public alike.
ManageLeadership, marketing, insights, visitor experience
Govern ongoing actions across various functions as the situation develops, monitoring closely. Turn to alternative mechanisms for visitor experience where possible.
Download the poster at covid.dexibit.comLeading in Crisis: Survive, then Thrive
Worst casePandemic triggered
global recession
December + reopening, significant further shutdowns
● 24 weeks + market closure with travel and entertainment market crash
● Long term total absence of tourism caused by border controls, air and cruise market crash with far reaching global economic impact
● Market upheaval caused by long term health crisis
Global case and death rates grow exponentially with a high peak, health system risk of collapse, second and third wave
episodes hit exhausted systems, stressing government funding
Low or no visitation for an extended period
Best caseImmunity recovery with short
sharp shock and pent up demand
Mid to late May reopening, no further shutdowns
● 10 weeks market closure with some competitive consolidation
● Pent up demand and spending● Relief on border restrictions ● Public funding of staycation and
destination travel advertising ● Strong government bail out for
economies● Targeted funding for culture and tourism● Order of currencies unchanged
Quick return to normal visitation and spending with growth peaks
Mid rangeSignificant mid term travel market slide
July - September reopening, limited further shutdowns
● 16 weeks market closure causing significant stress or pulse opening
● Absence of tourism caused by continuing border controls with 25% or less airline capacity
● Airline collapse and price rises and very slow return to market for cruises
● Currency volatility
Lower than normal abnormal visitation with lacklustre growth
A global experience with local deviations: China, Europe provide advance examples
Situation report
Macro indicators
Inflation
Subsequent wave risk
Antibody feasibility
Reinfection risk Deaths
Seasonality
Mutations
Vaccine likelihood and lead time
Lockdownstatus
Bordercontrols and travel
warnings
Unemployment and welfare
Consumer confidence
Monetary policies
Foreign exchange
R0
Cases(new, active)
Recoveries
Complications
Testcapacity,
proliferation and speed
Contact tracing capacity and speed
Positivity rate
HEALTHECONOMYINDUSTRY
Reopening framework
Reopen date (scheduled or
probable)
Rolling shutdown risk Industry funding
Travel sector contraction or
collapse (air, cruise)
Channel partner collapse
(online agency, resellers)
Regulatory restrictions and
oversight
Government support for business
Assumptions and conditions
Scenario simulation
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Plan for the worst, hope for the best
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MACRO CONDITION ASSUMPTION SIMULATION DECISIONSWhat does the short, mid, and
long term future look like?What external market conditions
does this create? What features of our venue’s
business model are impacted?What effect will that have on key
metrics, plans and budgets? What follow on decisions will we
need to make?
Imagining assumptions
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Download the poster at covid.dexibit.com
Scenario skeletons
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BEST CASE PROBABLE CASE WORST CASE
Closures- Reopen date- Rolling shutdowns
Reopening in JulyA month long rolling shut down in September and January
Demand curve (initial and subsequent)- Pent up- Slow growth
Slow growth returning over 3 months
Capacity (per day) Capacity limited by 50% of fire code
Visitor origin- Domestic visitors
(hyper local / drive in / fly in)- International visitors
(overall / regional / country)
Hyper local visitors only for the next quarterDrive in visitors for the quarter following
Opening days and hours Shut on slow days (Mondays and Wednesdays)
Demographics (e.g. students, seniors) Low levels of senior audiences
Group bookings (e.g. schools, tours) No group bookings in 2020
Activities (exhibitions, experiences or events) No events over 500 PAX
Tickets (products and types) Moving to 2 hour session timed passes
Price elasticity Planned price increase for July cancelled
What’s on (regional activity) No conferences or large regional events
Download the poster at covid.dexibit.com
Building a simulation
Scenario simulation
© Copyright 2020 Dexibit. All Rights Reserved. www.dexibit.com
Responding strategically
Scenario simulation
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ACT & MONITOR
Monitor key metrics to trigger action on decision
points enacting changes as needed and planned
DECIDE & PLAN
Identify decisions and actions required under
each scenario and set trigger points for action
EXPLORE & CREATE
Edit existing, or create new scenarios by adjusting assumptions to simulate a range of potential futures
SCAN & REVIEW
Regularly review the latest macro conditions and internal metrics to assess existing scenarios
Managing to a scenario
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Rapidly iterate as context changes
BEST CASE PROBABLE CASE WORST CASE
Assumptions- July reopening- Suppressed demand- No tourism
Simulation - 250k simulated visitors
Monitoring - Tourism data- Website traffic to visit pages
Finance - Manage cost base
Marketing - Increase marketing to local audiences
Operations - Limited areas / spaces operational
Activities - No events until September
Technology - Contactless payment
Data - Ticket sales, visitor origin, dwell time, sentiment - Acquisition cost, average revenue
Strategy - Consolidation and cost reengineering
Response plan
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PLAN
Download the poster at resources.dexibit.com
What services will we offer, how will we staff the venue and what policies and procedures are needed?
Finance
Marketing
Operations
Activities
Technology
How might our target market and visitor acquisition tactics change?
What is our cash runway and what level of cost savings is required?
What public programs, exhibitions, experiences and events will we run?
What new systems will we need to support changes?
PLAN
Integrated plan of action:
NO REGRETS MOVESDecisions with positive payoffs regardless of the scenario and no downside
OPTION CREATORSDecisions with large positive payoff in some scenarios or a small negative effect in others
BIG BETSDecisions with the potential for significant positive or negative payoffs
For each scenario consider...
WORST CASE
What is the worst case that requires a distinct set of
decisions and actions?
BEST CASE
What is the best case that requires a distinct set of
decisions and actions?
Monitoring scenario performance
Persevere or pivot?
PROBABLE SCENARIO
Monitor actual visitation to identify whether to pivot or persevere with the current decision set and actions
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PIVOT POINTAdjust the scenario and response plan here
PROMPTS TO REVISE YOUR SCENARIOS...
● Has the external environment materially changed?
● Is there new information that was not available before now?
● Has an assumption changed based on new information?
● Is the data telling us things are different from what we assumed?
● Have we deviated from the planned response causing a different outcome?
● Has the internal context materially changed (goals / target visitor / resources / budgets / people...)
Runway heatmap
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CASH ON HAND:$ ________________
CURRENT BURN:$ ________________
REVENUE PROJECTION
On plan -15% -25% -50% -75%
On plan ______months
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-15% ______months
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-25% ______months
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-50% ______months
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-75% ______months
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Q&AScenario simulation
© Copyright 2020 Dexibit. All Rights Reserved. www.dexibit.com
Get the resource
SCENARIO SIMULATION KIT
Workshop posters for scenario planning and strategic response
Available to download atresources.dexibit.com
© Copyright 2020 Dexibit. All Rights Reserved. www.dexibit.com
Free during COVID-19
SCENARIO SIMULATION
Plan for an uncertain future by modelling visitorship under various assumptions, down to the day and up to a year ahead.
Sign up attour.dexibit.com
© Copyright 2020 Dexibit. All Rights Reserved. www.dexibit.com
SCENARIO PLANNINGVISITOR ATTRACTIONS UNITE FOR COVID-19
SESSION RECORDED, SLIDES TO BE DISTRIBUTEDSEE COVID.DEXIBIT.COM
