Schedule• Today: Exploration

• Tuesday Oct 28th: Weathering

• Oct 30th: Slopes and Mass Movement Aqueous Processes

• Nov 4th: Papers due, Atmospheres

• Nov 6th: Aeolian Processes

• Nov 13th: Exam 2

Exploration

How did we get where we are?

• Shuttle is retired

• Orion and heavy launch are years way from flight

• Money is tight

• Human Mars exploration is a distant dream

Werner Von Braun• Werner Von Braun was a

brilliant, charismatic leader– From a wealthy noble

family– Got interested in space

exploration as a teenager– Got his Ph.D. in aerospace

engineering at 22 (Hitler signed his Ph.D. paperwork)

– Ran the German rocket program at 24

• A lifelong committed space-cadet

• Rockets became the German version of the Manhattan Project.

• Scaling up from the simple rockets of the 30’s to something that can travel in space was tough– Guidance – Stability – Rocket control– Engines– Pumps– Supersonic dynamics– High-G forces

When the first V-2 hit London von Braun remarked to his colleagues, "The rocket worked perfectly except for landing on the wrong planet."

When the first V-2 hit London von Braun remarked to his colleagues, "The rocket worked perfectly except for landing on the wrong planet."

When the first V-2 hit London von Braun remarked to his colleagues, "The rocket worked perfectly except for landing on the wrong planet."

• Belgium 1664– Antwerp (1610)– Liege (27)– Hasselt (13)– Tournai (9)– Mons (3)– Diest (2)

• Britain 1402– London (1358)– Norwich (43)– Ipswich (1)

• France 76• Lille (25)• Paris (22)• Tourcoing (19)• Arras (6)• Cambrai (4)• Holland: Maastricht 19• Germany: Remagen 11

• Built: 6048• Launched: 3225• UK Killed: 2754• Belgium Killed: ~

3700• German Killed: ~

20,000• With the resources

required for the V2 the Germans could have built 48,000 tanks

Operation Paperclip

• Ended up leading the Army rocket development program in Huntsville AL– His group developed the

rocket that put the first US satellite into orbit

– His rockets carried the first astronauts into space

Von Braun’s Vision

• In the 50’s he wrote a series of articles on the future in space.

• He wanted to go to Mars. His plan was….– Build a shuttle– Build a space Station– Build a big s/c in orbit– Fly to Mars

The idea was very direct…

• Lift-off Mass: 7000 tons• Up Cargo Mass: 36 tons

to 1075-mile polar orbit• Flight Rate: 4 launches

per day from 2 pads on Johnston Island

• Turn-Around Time: ~5 days

• Assemble a fleet of s/c in low Earth orbit.

• The orbit chosen would have put the space station in the Van Allen belts (unknown at the time)

– Cosmic Rays– Working in space

• Cost: – Von Braun’s estimate for Total Program Cost to 1967: ~$25B in FY03 $

(includes Space Station) – US military services spent about $220B on rocket technology in 1951-

63 – NASA spent another ~$135B on Apollo – ~$30B on Shuttle development, Shuttle ops is $50 billion so far– Station is running about $40 billion

• This would have required about 7000 tons in LEO.

• Our view of Mars was much different then…– Much thicker atmosphere– “Canals”, vegetation, and primitive animal life.

• Knowledgeable scientists even criticized this artist for making Mars too bleak….

The first part of the vision • In the 50’s NASA was created

out of a tiny agency that did research in aeronautics and a collection of rocket research groups. – This was mostly in response

to what the Russians were doing…..

– Von Braun’s group was by far the most experienced rocket builders in the US

• In the 60’s NASA had a Presidential mandate to go to the Moon. This = lots of money.– Von Braun’s group built the

Saturn rockets that got people to the Moon

Post-Apollo• After Apollo Von Braun

was NASA’s chief of advanced planning. – Von Braun’s vision of

manned missions to Mars became the unstated policy shuttlestationbig s/c assembled in orbitfly to Mars

– But, this is massively expensive and there was no national consensus to spend the money

– What NASA did was try to do a piece at a time….first the Space Shuttle.

What was wrong with Shuttle?• It was, after all, built by

committee….• The need to accommodate ALL

payloads– The payload bay was much larger than

NASA wanted– Program designed for a launch rate of

24/year

• Military Considerations– RAPID descent…very high heat loading– Cross-track landing…big delta wings,

need for low-density heat shielding

• Reusability– The tiles were hugely maintenance

intensive. Very high maintenance costs

– 5 person-days per tile….!

One piece at a time….• Shuttle done, the next

piece was Space Station, but funding was iffy.– For station, Reagan gave

the go-ahead against unanimous advice of his cabinet.

• But the money was still not there…

What Does NASA Spend Its Money On ?

• Space Ops $4.3 Billion• Exploration $3.8 Billion• Technology $0.6 Billion• Education $0.14 Billion• Science $5.1 Billion• Aeronautics $0.5 Billion• NASA Centers $3.5 Billion

Bush’s initiative in context

• Back in 2004 Bush redirected NASA to the Moon, then Mars

• What Bush did was cut the cord on Von Braun’s vision

• For some time people realized that the way to Mars was NOT thru shuttle, station, etc.

• Bush redirected NASA to start with the Moon..

The Bush plan was to build a new series of rockets to replace the shuttle,

then go to the Moon, then Mars

Bush’s initiative in context

• But, the passage of time has not made going to Mars is not any less expensive and Bush did not provide any more money

• The Ares I and V launchers were estimated to cost $32 billion to develop

• Going someplace is extra…• Each Orion launch was

expected to cost $1 billion.

Obama was left with the bill…

• In fact, the “Bush” initiative did not ramp up until right after he left office….

• It required his successor to significantly increase NASA funding.

• Obama started a new study which showed that there was no money to develop or run Ares.

• His approach is to get private companies to develop the launchers

The current plan is…

• Really no plan……• Spend $6 billion on

commercial launchers to supply ISS

• Build the Orion spacecraft for some unspecified future mission to fly on some unspecified future launcher.

• Make a decision on a heavy launcher in 2015. But that is estimated to cost ~$30 Billion

The reality is….

• If you want people on Mars….that is $7-10 billion/yr extra forever.

• The reality is that nobody is going anywhere without a major national and international commitment.

• That is not in the cards right now….