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Navigating Waves of Change:

Driving Academic Improvement Through Challenging Times

Sam Howe

November 2010

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Presentation Focus

• How to build academic plans that achieve their targets

• In the midst of two waves of significant change– Rising number of economically disadvantaged children– The economic uncertainties surrounding the Great

Recession

• And, with the recognition that these waves of change vary by geographic location

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Help for These Questions

• Demographics:– How much longer will the number of economically

disadvantaged students continue to rise? – What’s the demographic profile for my incoming

kindergarten students, three years from now?

• Economics:– What’s the 3-5 year outlook for my state and local funding?– When can I bring a school budget increase or bond issue to

my community?

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Help for These Questions

• Academics:– Where can I focus my investments to get the greatest gain in

academic achievement over the next 24 months?– How do I estimate the number of students that I must place

into an intervention treatment program to reach a specific proficiency target in 3 years time?

5

Annual Data Review

Curriculum Review

• Alignment between Curriculum and Tested Standards

• Alignment between Curriculum and Needs of Business/ Community

Key Academic Indicators

• Reading

• Mathematics

• Graduation & Dropouts

Leadership and School Culture

• Professional Development Needs of Academic Leaders

• 360 Degree Survey of Stakeholders regarding Leadership Practices

State & Community Review

• Demographics

• Economics

• Real Estate

• 360 Degree Survey of Community Stakeholders

Teaching Effectiveness

• Professional Development Needs of Teachers

• 360 Degree Survey of Stakeholders regarding Teaching Practices

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Demographic Trend Analysis

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Demographic Data

• American Community Survey– Annual data from 2006 through 2009– Detailed demographic data for states, counties, and major cities

(population 65,000+)– Data covers topics including population, housing, income, education,

fertility, language, and poverty– US Census Bureau web site

• Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)– US Census Bureau web site

• Brookings Institution– Metropolitan Policy Institute and Hamilton Project– Demographic research in multiple areas, including poverty, immigration,

and children– Brookings web site

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US Demographic TrendDemographic Change in Chidlren Under 18 Years of Age in US from 2006

Through 2009 in ACS Data

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

BelowPoverty

Hispanic All Under18

ELL Asian ForeignBorn

AfricanAmer

White

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Poverty for Children Under 18 in 2008

Source: SAIPE

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Poverty Challenge for Children

Source: Brookings Institution

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Demographics for Kindergarten Students

• 48 students will have attended preschool

• 46 students will be from low income families

• 23 students will be from families on public assistance

• 21 students will have moved within the past 12 months

• 21 students will be from households that speak a language other than English

• 5 students will be from linguistically isolated families

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Economic Forecast

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Economic Forecast

• Economic Data

– County and MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) forecasts: Moody’s economy.com

– County and State employment data: Bureau of Labor Statistics

– State economic forecasts: Moody’s economy.com

– Federal economic data and analysis: Brookings Institution

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Unemployment Challenge

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Unemployment Challenge

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Employment Loss in Recession

Source: Brookings Institution

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Employment Loss in Recession

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IL State Economic Forecast

Source: Moody’s Economy.com June 2010 Report

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Monitor Economic Challenges

• Monitor the health of top employers

• Monitor state tax revenue collection trends and pension obligations

• Monitor local real estate trends

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Educational Attainment

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Education Pipeline Challenge

Source: National Center on Education and the Economy

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High School Completion Challenge

Ohio State High School Graduation Rates

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

SY04-05 SY05-06 SY06-07 SY07-08

SPED

Econ Dis

LEP

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High School Loss Analysis

High School Student Loss AnalysisBased on District Enrollment Data

GroupGrade 9 in 2006

Grade 10 in 2007

Grade 11 in 2008

Grade 12 in 2009

Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 10

Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 11

Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 12

All 636 562 524 452 74 112 184

Estimated State & Federal Funding per Capita per Year = $3,8712006 State Average

Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 10

Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 11

Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 12 TOTAL

$286,454 $433,552 $712,264 $1,432,270

Estimated Annual State & Federal Funding Loss per Cohort from Grades 9-12

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Educational Attainment Challenge

Source: ACS 2009 USA data

Educational Attainment for Adults 25+ Years of Age in 2009

Percent Distribution

Median Income

Percent Below Poverty

Percent Not Employed

Percent Unemployed

Did not complete ninth grade 6.3%Did not complete high school 14.8% $18,432 25.7% 47.1% 15.2%

High school graduate (includes equivalency) 28.5% $26,140 12.5% 33.0% 10.6%

Some college, no degree 21.3% $31,906 9.0% 26.4% 8.3%Associates degree 7.5% $31,906 9.0% 26.4% 8.3%

Bachelors degree 17.6% $47,510 3.9% 18.0% 4.5%Graduate or professional degree 10.3% $62,313 3.9% 18.0% 4.5%

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Review Key Academic Performance Indicators for

Reading and Math Achievement

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Subgroup Reading Challenges

Percent of Students Reading Below Proficient on WA State Test in 2007

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

All

Econ Dis

African Amer

SPED

LEP

Asian

White

Hispanic

% Level 1

% Level 2

Number of Students Reading Below Proficient on WA State Test in 2007

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

All

Econ Dis

African Amer

SPED

LEP

Asian

White

Hispanic

# Level 1

# Level 2

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Subgroup Reading Trends

Mean Annual Percent Growth in ELA Proficiency for Grade 6-10 Students on CST from 2003 Through 2006

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Asian Hispanic Econ Dis Af-Am All White SPED ELL

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Grade Level Reading Challenges

Percent of Students Reading at Levels 1-2 on FCAT in 2007

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Grade 3

Grade 4

Grade 5

Grade 6

Grade 7

Grade 8

Grade 9

Grade 10

% L1

% L2

Number of Students Reading at Levels 1-2 on FCAT in 2007 Total = 49,443 Students

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Grade 3

Grade 4

Grade 5

Grade 6

Grade 7

Grade 8

Grade 9

Grade 10

# L1

# L2

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Reading Challenge

Mean Annual Growth in Ohio State Reading Proficiency from 2006 Through 2009

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Grade 4 Grade 3 Grade 11 Grade 7 Grade 6 Grade 5 Grade 8 Grade 10

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School Reading ChallengePercent of Students Scoring Below Proficient on State Test

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Washington MS

Roosevelt MS

Grant MS

Lincoln MS

Revere MS

Truman MS

Jackson MS

Kennedy MS

McKinley MS

Adams MS

Hoover MS

Coolidge MS

Jefferson MS

Eisenhow er MS

ML King MS

% BB

% B

Number of Students Scoring Below Proficient on State Test Total = 8,408 Students

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Washington MS

Roosevelt MS

Grant MS

Lincoln MS

Revere MS

Truman MS

Jackson MS

Kennedy MS

McKinley MS

Adams MS

Hoover MS

Coolidge MS

Jefferson MS

Eisenhow er MS

ML King MS

# BB

# B

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Critical Mass to Move the Needle

• In __ City Schools, with 10,000 students tested

• 1% gain = moving 100 students to proficiency

• Intervention program at 25% conversion rate (1 out of every 4)

• 400 students in intervention = 100 students proficient = 1% gain

• A 5% gain = 2,000 students in intervention

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Building Blocks for Academic Improvement

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Academic Management

• Assessment Data– Screening, progress monitoring, and summative assessments for

all students – Assessments for math and reading for all students on a single

vertical scale– Growth and trajectory analyses

• Program Data– Individualized student skills data– Progress monitoring data– Usage data– Implementation fidelity data– Data that rolls up from student to class to school to district

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Academic Success

• Tiered Instruction– Tier #1: Core instruction– Tier #2: Intervention for students 1+ years below

grade level– Tier #3: Intensive intervention in foundational skills

• Human Capital– Leadership training– Job embedded teacher professional development and

in-classroom coaching for teachers delivering intervention

– Training of a cadre of coaches to build internal capacity

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Recommended Actions

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Take Action Today

• Conduct an annual data review– Review economics and demographics– Review academic indicators in reading and math– Review human capital needs of leaders and

teachers

• Use results from the annual data review to update your strategic and improvement plans

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Take Action Today

• Set up time for a free consultation to discuss your district’s data challenges

• Set the appointment through your Scholastic Account Executive

• Or, contact me…– Sam Howe– Vice President Academic Planning & Analysis– showe@scholastic.com