SCI Electric PCL Target Price: THB11.82 ... - RHB … current liabilities Source: Company data, RHB . Source: Company data, RHB . ... Total current liabilities 1,539 1,200 954 1,107

Thailand Initiating Coverage

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5 April 2016 Construction & Engineering | Engineering & Construction

SCI Electric PCL Buy

Target Price: THB11.82 Price: THB9.20

Looking For Alpha? Market Cap: USD196m Bloomberg Ticker: SCI TB

We initiate coverage on SCI Electric (SCI), a manufacturer of switch boards, power transmission and telecommunication towers, with a BUY and a THB11.82/share TP, derived from DCF, which results in a 28% estimated upside return. We expect its earnings to jump threefold over the next two years from the power transmission line and substation projects in Laos. The company’s IPO took place in October 2015.

Share Data Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 165m/4.62m 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 6.15 - 10.8 Free Float (%) 30 Shares outstanding (m) 750 Estimated Return 28% Shareholders (%) Sirichai Phruttinarakorn 18.1 Wanida Phruttinarakorn 14.5 Rusamee Pruktinarakorn 14.2 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 34.3 31.4 34.3 n/a n/a Relative 24.8 25.6 24.8 n/a n/a Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Revenues and earnings could surge to new heights. Given the company’s past experience with the Power Distribution System Rehabilitation (PDSR) Phase I project in Laos, we expect it to obtain two new projects from the Electricite du Laos (EDL), totalling USD767m, in the second half of this year:

i) The PDSR Phase II project (project value USD67m, with a twenty-eight months construction period); and,

ii) The construction of a power transmission line and substation (project value USD700m, with a four years construction period).

We believe these two project could have a major positive impact on the company’s revenue, potentially boosting it from THB2.1bn in 2015 to approximately THB2.5bn this year and THB6.5bn in 2017F.

Expanding its business into Myanmar. The company plans to set up a power transmission line tower and a telecom tower plant in Myanmar to serve the electricity and mobile coverage expansion there. According to media, mobile operators in Myanmar anticipate to increase their network coverage to 70% from the current 42-50% over the next two years and the number of telecommunication towers will have to increase as a result to c.17,300 from the current 10,600 towers. The new plant will have a capacity to produce 7,500 tpa of transmission lines and telecom towers and a capacity for galvanizing steel of 22,000 tpa. The new Myanmar plant could bring up the total production capacity of the company by around 31% to 31,500 tpa. We expect the new plant to start contributing additional revenues of around THB340m/year only in 2018F. We initiate with a BUY and a TP of THB11.82/share. We expect earnings to surge next year as a result of the 500kV power transmission line project in Laos. We have not included further any further upside potential from its new business unit, which would focus on utility business. We are valuing SCI at THB11.82/share based on a DCF methodology, with a WACC of 8.2% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. Our DCF target price implies an 11.3x 2017 P/E.

Risks. Approximately 70% of SCI’s expenses are raw materials (mainly steel and zinc) and the volatility of raw materials could adversely affect the company profitability. The power transmission line and substation projects in Laos account for a large portion of our revenue forecast; any delay in these projects can negatively affect our earnings forecast

Source: Company data, RHB

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17FTotal turnover (THBm) 2,176 2,809 2,090 2,525 6,486Reported net profit (THBm) 171 327 187 290 780Recurring net profit (THBm) 171 327 187 290 780Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 90.6 (42.7) 55.1 168.7Recurring EPS (THB) 1.04 1.98 0.41 0.39 1.04DPS (THB) 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.15 0.42Recurring P/E (x) 8.9 4.6 22.5 23.8 8.9P/B (x) 5.01 2.42 3.71 3.40 2.76P/CF (x) 6.1 15.1 64.0 16.3 11.2Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 6.4 1.7 4.5EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 3.4 16.5 17.8 6.8Return on average equity (%) 0.0 70.3 15.0 14.9 34.4Net debt to equity (%) 66.3 27.5 8.7 2.7 5.3Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (0.8) 2.9

91103114126138149161

5.66.67.68.69.6

10.611.6

SCI Engineering (SCI TB)Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

100200300400500600700800900

Oct

-15

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-15

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-16

Vol m

13

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17

19

21

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25

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Core rolling P/E (x)

Analysts Chun Phokaisawan +66 2862 2029 [email protected]

http://www.efa.biz/

mailto:[email protected]

SCI Electric PCL Thailand Initiating Coverage



Financial Exhibits





Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17FTotal turnover 2,176 2,809 2,090 2,525 6,486 Cost of sales (1,850) (2,231) (1,730) (2,037) (5,283) Gross profit 326 578 360 488 1,203 Selling expenses (129) (148) (137) (131) (227) Operating profit 197 430 223 357 976 EBITDA 225 458 255 383 1,015 Depreciation of fixed assets (28) (28) (32) (26) (39) Operating profit 197 430 223 357 976 Other recurring income 44 15 27 27 27 Interest expense (24) (28) (24) (21) (28) Pre-tax profit 217 417 225 363 974 Taxation (45) (91) (38) (73) (195) Minority interests - (0) (0) - - Reported net profit 171 327 187 290 780 Recurring net profit 171 327 187 290 780

Key Ratios Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17FRevenue growth (%) 0.0 29.1 (25.6) 20.8 156.8Operating profit growth (%) 0.0 118.4 (48.2) 60.2 173.3Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 90.6 (42.7) 55.1 168.7Recurrent EPS growth (%) 0.0 90.6 (79.3) (5.4) 168.7Gross margin (%) 15.0 20.6 17.2 19.3 18.5Operating EBITDA margin (%) 10.3 16.3 12.2 15.2 15.6Operating margin (%) 9.1 15.3 10.7 14.1 15.0Recurring net profit margin (%) 7.9 11.6 8.9 11.5 12.0Return on average assets (%) 0.0 16.9 7.7 9.4 18.2Return on average equity (%) 0.0 70.3 15.0 14.9 34.4Net debt to equity (%) 66.3 27.5 8.7 2.7 5.3Interest cover (x) 8.1 15.6 9.2 16.9 35.0Capex/Free cash flow (%) 6.6 58.2 44.8 48.6 63.3BVPS (THB) 1.84 3.80 2.48 2.71 3.33DPS (THB) 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.15 0.42Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 236.1 40.0 40.0Free cash flow per share (THB) 1.42 0.25 0.08 0.29 0.30

Cash flow (THBm) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17FOperating profit 197 430 223 357 976 Depreciation & amortisation 28 28 32 26 39 Change in working capital 30 (304) (100) 104 (208) Other operating cash flow 48 43 28 31 32 Operating cash flow 302 197 183 517 838 Interest received (28) (26) (22) (21) (28) Tax paid (24) (70) (95) (73) (195) Cash flow from operations 250 100 66 424 616 Capex (17) (58) (29) (206) (390) Other new investments (18) 8 18 - - Other investing cash flow (116) (7) (1,044) 7 7 Cash flow from investing activities (151) (58) (1,056) (199) (383) Dividends paid - - (442) (116) (312) Proceeds from issue of shares 89 - 1,504 - - Increase in debt 72 82 (177) 50 150 Other financing cash flow (115) (31) (41) - - Cash flow from financing activities 45 51 844 (66) (162) Cash at beginning of period 30 175 269 123 281 Total cash generated 145 94 (147) 159 71 Implied cash at end of period 175 269 123 282 352

Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17FTotal cash and equivalents 175 269 123 281 352 Inventories 136 210 213 257 661 Accounts receivable 428 741 777 758 1,686 Other current assets 647 122 1,159 1,184 1,406 Total current assets 1,386 1,342 2,272 2,479 4,105 Total investments 143 149 151 151 151 Tangible fixed assets 113 168 188 368 719 Intangible assets 264 255 288 281 274 Total other assets 30 14 8 8 8 Total non-current assets 550 585 636 808 1,152 Total assets 1,936 1,927 2,908 3,288 5,257 Short-term debt 306 369 224 224 224 Accounts payable 735 644 685 758 1,946 Other current liabilities 498 187 45 125 283 Total current liabilities 1,539 1,200 954 1,107 2,453 Total long-term debt 69 72 61 111 261 Other liabilities 25 29 34 38 43 Total non-current liabilities 95 101 95 149 304 Total liabilities 1,633 1,301 1,048 1,255 2,757 Share capital 165 165 750 750 750 Retained earnings reserve 142 465 207 380 848 Other reserves (4) (4) 902 902 902 Shareholders' equity 303 626 1,860 2,032 2,500 Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 Other equity 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) Total equity 303 626 1,860 2,032 2,500 Total liabilities & equity 1,936 1,927 2,908 3,288 5,257

Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB

-70%

-20%

30%

80%

130%

180%

230%

Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F

Revenue growth vs Recurring net profit growth

Revenue growth Recurring net profit growth

7.0%8.0%9.0%

10.0%11.0%12.0%13.0%14.0%15.0%16.0%17.0%

Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F

EBITDA margin vs Net profit margin

Operating EBITDA margin Net profit margin




Investment Merits

We initiate coverage on SCI with a BUY and a THB11.82/share TP.

We expect earnings to surge threefold over the next two years with growth coming from the 500kV power transmission line project in Laos. We have not included further upside potential from its new business unit, which will focus on the utility business. We are valuing SCI at THB11.82/share based on DCF with a WACC of 8.2% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. Our DCF target price implies a 11.3x 2017 P/E. We like the company strong growth profile given the projects in the pipeline; moreover, we like the company’s strategy to expand in the Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) market and its already established strong presence in these countries.

Earnings may surge to new heights from the transmission line project in Laos.

Given the company’s past experience with the Power Distribution System Rehabilitation (PDSR) project phase one in Laos, we now expect the company to receive two new projects from the Electricite du Laos (EDL), totalling USD767m, in second half this year. The two projects are:

i) The PDSR project phase two (project value USD67m, with a twenty-eight months construction period); and,

ii) The construction of power transmission line and substation (project value USD700m, with a four years construction period). We believe the two project will have major positive impact on the company’s revenue, boosting its from THB2.09bn last year to THB2.53bn this year and THB6.50bn next year.

Expanding its tower business into Myanmar

The company plans to set up a power transmission line tower and telecom tower plant in Myanmar to serve the electricity and mobile coverage expansion there. According to media, mobile operators in Myanmar expect to increase their network coverage to 70% from the current 42-50% over the next two years and the number of telecommunication tower will need to increase to 17,300 towers as a result, from the currently 10,600 towers. We estimate that an investment in the telecommunication tower sector to be around THB10.0bn. Meanwhile, the demand for power in Myanmar still exceeded the available supply and the government plans to introduce the 500kV transmission line to connect the country’s facilities. The new plant will have a capacity to produce 7,500 tpa of transmission line and telecom tower and a capacity to galvanize steel of 22,000 tpa. The new Myanmar plant will bring up the company’s total production capacity by around 31% to 31,500 tpa. We expect the new plant to start contributing additional revenue of around THB340m/year in 2018 (assuming an 85% utilization rate).

Potential upside from its new utilities business

The company recently announced that it will expand more into utility business and has recently formed a JV with Property Perfect (PF TB, NR). The new business will invest in utility business such as solar roof and hydro power plant in neighbouring countries. However, we have not included the potential upside from this new business in our valuation since there is still no clear information regarding this investment.




Valuation And Recommendation We initiate on SCI with a BUY as we expect its core earnings to grow at an approximately CAGR of 95% over the next three years from THB187m in 2015 to THB1.3bn in 2018 as a result of obtaining the Power Distribution System Rehabilitation Phase II project, the 500kV Power Transmission Line and the Substation projects in Laos.

The company plans to set up a power transmission line tower and a telecom tower plant in Myanmar to serve the electricity and mobile coverage expansion in Myanmar. The new Myanmar plant will bring up the company total production capacity by around 31% to 31,500 tpa. We expect the new plant to start contributing additional revenue of around THB340m/year in 2018 (assuming an 85% utilization rate). We have already included the potential upside from the capacity expansion in our projections.

SCI recently announced that it will expand more into the utility business and it has recently formed a JV with its partner, Property Perfect (PF TB, NR). The new business will invest in utility business such as solar roof and hydro power plants in neighbouring countries. However, we have not included the potential upside from this new business in our valuation since there is still no clear information regarding this investment.

DCF method. Per Figure 1 below, we value SCI Electric at THB11.82/share, based on the DCF methodology, with a WACC of 8.2% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We incorporate the assumptions shown in Figures 21 to 23. Our DCF target price implies a 11.3x 2017 P/E. We expect the company earnings to grow significantly over the next two years as it will incorporate a bulk of revenue from the Power Transmission Line and Substation projects, which we expect to be awarded this year.

Figure 1: Valuation detail of SCI

(THBm) 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F Terminal

Value EBIT 384 1,002 1,760 1,710 658 516 522 528 535 541 545 EBIT*(1-tax) 307 802 1,408 1,368 526 413 418 423 428 433 436 Depreciation &Amortization 26 39 48 47 47 47 47 46 46 46 45 Change in working capital 104 -208 -403 -25 608 72 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 Capex -206 -390 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20

Free Cash Flow 230 243 1,032 1,370 1,162 511 441 446 450 455 459 9,060 PV of Free Cash Flow 230 225 881 1,081 847 345 275 256 239 224 208 4,112 PV FCF 4,811 PV of terminal value 4,112 interest bearing debt 335 Cash 281

NPV 8,868 Share outstanding(m) 750

Share Value (THB) 11.82

Source: RHB

Although (per Figure 2) SCI is currently trading at higher P/E and P/B multiples compared to its peers, we believe that the company is more attractive as it offers a much higher growth potential. Note that we expect SCI to trade at lower multiples in 2017 as we expect its earnings to surge as a result of the 500kV transmission line project.

Figure 2: Peer comparison

Company Ticker P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA ROE (%)

2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F ASEFA PCL ASEFA TB 13.7 11.7 2.3 2.1 9.9 8.6 17.0 17.9 Demco PCL DEMCO TB 12.6 10.0 1.4 1.3 20.4 14.4 9.9 12.7 SCI Electric PCL SCI TB 21.5 8.0 3.1 2.5 15.4 6.1 14.3 31.2 Average (Ex SCI) 13.1 10.9 1.8 1.7 15.1 11.5 13.5 15.3

Data as of 25 March 2016 Source: RHB, Bloomberg




The Core Businesses SCI Electric (SCI) was established in 1987 as a manufacturer of switch boards, cable trays, fuses and relays with registered capital of THB1m. The company expanded to manufacturing of transmission line towers and telecommunication towers with its partner AG Ajikawa Corporation (Japan) in 1988. In 2006, the company ventured into Laos and was granted a permission to build and operate a 3.2MW hydro-power plant. The company business is comprised of four major business units which are i) Electrical Switch Board and Cable Tray, ii) Power Transmission Line Tower and Telecommunication Tower, iii) Power Transmission and Distribution Turnkey Project and iv) Renewable and Utility Investment.

Figure 3: Company structure Figure 4: Revenue breakdown by business units

0

20

40

60

80

100

2012 2013 2014 2015

23 2212 17

71

2539

47

6

52 4835

1 1 1

Electrical Switch Board & Cable Tray Power Tranmission Line & Telecommunication Tower

Turnkey Project Renewable & Utility Investment

(%)

Source: Company data Source: Company data

SCI manufactures, designs, and installs electrical switch board, main distribution board (MDB), control panels and related equipment. Additionally, the company manufactures cable trays to support switch board installation. Around 50% of the company’s customers are in the energy sector while the rest are in petrochemical, and transportation. The company has a manufacturing plant in the Samutprakarn province with a production capacity of 1,500 switch boards pa and a cable tray production capacity of 5,500 tpa.

Figure 5: Switch board and MDB Figure 6: Cable trays


SCI manufactures and distributes transmission line towers used for transmitting electricity from power plants to substations; SCI obtained this know-how and technology from its partner, AG Ajikawa Corporation who is also a manufacturer of power transmission lines in Japan. SCI also manufactures steel towers for installing devices used in the telecommunication systems including mobile phone networks and radio or television broadcasting systems. The company’s customers include Electricite du Laos, PEA, EGAT, True Corporation (TRUE TB, Neutral, THB7.40), Total Access Communication (DTAC TB, Neutral, THB32.0), and Advance Info Service (ADVANC TB, Buy, THB190.0). The manufacturing plant is located in the Chonburi province; the company also offers galvanizing service to both internal and external parties with a total galvanizing capacity of 24,000 tpa.




Figure 7: Power & telecommunication towers Figure 8: PDSR Phase I project in 4 major cities


Power transmission and distribution turnkey project. The company acts as an EPC contractor for high voltage transmission line and power distribution system projects in overseas markets. The company bids for projects directly from the project owner, then it hires subcontractors to complete the projects. Subcontractors will also be required to purchase equipment form the company if the company’s products are used for the projects. Previous projects that the company completed include the construction of 115kV transmission line in Laos and Power Distribution System Rehabilitation Project Phase I (PDSR Phase I) where SCI improved the efficiency of low and medium voltage distribution systems in four major cities: Vientiane, Thakhek, Savannakhet and Pakse.

Renewable and utility investment. The company received a thirty years concession (2013-2042) to build and operate a 3.2MW hydro-power plant located in Xepone, Savanakhet from the Laos Government in 2012. EDL agreed to purchase all the electricity dispatch from the power plant at USD0.066/KWh (increasing at the rate of 1% per annum) in years 1-10 and USD0.0465 (increasing at the rate of 1% per annum) in years 11-30. Around 90% of the payment would be made in USD while the rest in LAK. Although the hydro power plant does not have significant contribution to the company’s earnings, it served as a cornerstone for the company to expand its business in Laos. Recently, the company also set up T-utilities (40% SCI, 40% PF, and 20% outside parties), a subsidiary which will invest in solar rooftop, water utilities, coal fired power, hydro power and other renewable energy projects. However, there is still no clear detail regarding T-utilities future investment plan at the moment.

Figure 9: Cost breakdown Figure 10: Gross profit margin by business unit





Industry Overview The switch boards and cable tray industry is highly competitive with many players. SCI is a small player in this niche market with less than 5% market share. Other major players in the sector includes ASEFA Public Company Limited (ASEFA TB, Non-rate), TIC Modular System Company Limited, Mantra Switchgear Company Limited, Precise Corporation Company Limited, SIEMENS and ABB.

Given that the majority of clients are in the utility and property sectors, the switch board and cable tray industry is mostly growing in tandem with the new power plant and property development projects. According to the Department of Industrial Work, the number of new factories has been growing at a CAGR of 4.5% from 2009 to 2014, which is in line with the country’s economic growth. We expect this moderate growth pattern to continue as there should be 1,929MW of new SPP power plants coming into the system in 2017.

Although we expect new projects launched by property developers to decline this year due to the current oversupply situation, we still expect them to launch new projects worth over THB250bn in 2016. Additionally, we expect new project launches to resume in the upcoming years after property developers have cleared up their excess inventory in 2016 on the back of the government infrastructure project plan.

Figure 11: Number of factories in Thailand Figure 12: Upcoming SPP projects

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4,398 4,386 4,490

5,309 5,325 5,492

(Number of factories)

0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

968

1,240

1,929

775

532

72

(MW)

Source: Department of Industrial Work Source: Thailand PDP 2015

Power transmission line tower and telecommunication tower industry is highly correlated to electricity demand and the network expansion plans by major mobile operators. The electricity demand and consumption has been increasing steadily at a rate of 3% pa; on top of this there is the new PDP 2015 target to double the country’s installed capacity to 70,410mw in 20 years. Transmission line and substation in Thailand also saw a similar growth pattern in the same period. The transmission line grew from 30,500km in 2010 to 32,500km in 2014 (CAGR of 2%). Given a target installed capacity of 70,410MW over the next 20 years (CAGR of 3%), we believe the investments in a transmission line and substation will continue to grow in a similar manner in the future.

Figure 13: Electricity consumption Figure 14: Transmission line length

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

175,000

180,000

185,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

161,554 160,816

175,925177,544

182,883

(GWh)

30,639 30,517

31,556

32,384 32,526

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

31,000

31,500

32,000

32,500

33,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

(Km)

Source: EGAT Source: Thailand PDP 2015

The number of telecommunication towers usually grows in tandem with increasing data usage and a wider network coverage. According to the National Broadcasting and Telecommunication Commission (NBTC), mobile subscriptions have been increasing at




CAGR of 8% from 2010 to 2014. NBTC expects the number of subscriptions to continue increasing in the future due to the rise of the Machine to Machine communication (M2M).

The three mobile operators plan to roll out more than 30,000 base stations to support the new 4G technology. We believe the expansion plan by the three mobile operators will have minimal positive impact on SCI as it is mostly an upgrade of their existing cell site and base station which does not require many new telecommunication towers.

SCI is one of the leading companies in the manufacturing of telecommunication tower and power transmission line towers in Thailand with a 25% market share. Other major competitors include DEMCO (DEMCO TB, BUY, THB9.56), UA Withya (UWC TB, Non-rated), Siam Steel Tower, Thai Scandisk Steel, TCC Industrial Engineering.

Figure 15: Electricity consumption Figure 16: Expansion plan by three mobile operators

71.7 77.585.0

92.9 97.1108.4

116.0123.6

131.3

108.8 117127.9

139.3 144.9161.3

172182.8

193.5

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140

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Mobile subscriptions Mobile Penetration

(million) (%)

Source: NBTC Source: AIS, True, DTAC

As for its EPC business, we believe there are still plenty of opportunities for the company to expand its business in Laos and Myanmar as the infrastructure in these countries is still underdeveloped.

Laos Government plans to transform the country into the battery of Southeast Asia by exporting power to Thailand and Vietnam; Laos currently has power projects under construction of around 4,000MW and power projects under study of 10,000MW. As such, the construction and extension of transmission lines and distribution networks are needed for the interconnection among Laos and its neighboring countries. Specifically, the EDL plans to expand its high voltage transmission line for 4,405km over the next 5 years.

Figure 17: Electrification ratio Figure 18: Mobile network coverage

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Thailand Lao PDR Myanmar Cambodia Vietnam

100

90

32 31.1

99(%)

0102030405060708090

100

Thailand Maynmar Lao PDR

97

70

90

(%)

Source: World Bank Source: World Bank, NBTC

Only 32% of the population in Myanmar has access to electricity while the electricity demand has been increasing at CAGR of 15% over the last seven years. The Myanmar government has set a target to increase its installed capacity from the current 4,581mw to more than 29,000mw in 2031.

Figure 19: Country comparison

Country Annual Production (GWh) Tranmission lines (km) Population (million) Land Area (km2) (thousand)

Thailand 173,603 32,500 67.3 513.1

Myanmar 8,254 10,057 53.2 677

Laos 29,251 5,197 6.6 236.8

Source: EGAT,EDL,ADB




Financial Analysis The company’s total revenue grew in 2014 and declined in 2015 as SCI completed most of the PDSR Phase I project in 2014. However, we forecast the company revenues to pick up substantially over the next three years as we expect the company to sign the PDSR Phase II project (USD67m) and Power Transmission line and Substation in Laos (USD700-800m) during the second half this of this year.

Figure 20: Projects under development

Source: Company data

Moreover, we expect revenues from the power transmission towers and telecommunication towers to jump from THB982m in 2015 to 1.74bn in 2018 on the back of its tower capacity expansion in 2018.The company plans to set up a power transmission line tower and telecom tower plant in Myanmar to serve the electricity and mobile coverage expansion there. The new plant will have a capacity to produce 7,500 tpa of transmission line and telecom tower and have a capacity to galvanize steel of 22,000 tpa. The new Myanmar plant will bring up company’s total production capacity by around 31% to 31,500 tpa. We expect the new plant to start contributing additional revenue of around THB340m/ year in 2018 (assuming 85% utilization rate).

Figure 21: Sale to jump significantly from the two power projects in Laos

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

478 327 355 362 370 377

546 1,106 982 1,300 1,365 1,7451,123

1,346732 352

1,055938

490

3,675

8,575

Switch board & cable tray Tower hydro PDSR phase 1 PDSR phase 2 Lao PDR tranmission line

(THBm)11,656

6,486

2,525

2,090

2,809

2,176

Source: RHB, Company data

Gross profit margin increased in 2014 due to PDSR Phase I and declined in 2015 as the company completed the project. We expect the gross profit margin to improve this year but not back to the same level as in 2014 given that we expect power transmission line and substation project in Laos to yield lower gross profit margin compared to the PDSR project (15% vs 20%). However, we expect net profit margin to increase to a 12% level in 2017 as the company achieves economies of scale.




Figure 22: Profit margin trend

15.0

20.6

17.219.3 18.5 18.4

11.9

16.5

12.9

16.2 16.1 15.5

7.9

11.6

8.911.5 12.0 11.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Gross profit margin EBITDA margin Net profit margin

(%)


We expect core earnings to grow exponentially from THB187m in 2015 to THB1.38bn in 2018 on the back of the power transmission line and substation project in Laos and the new telecommunication tower plant in Myanmar. Note that we expect earnings to decline significantly in 2020 after the company completes the power transmission line and substation project.

Figure 23: Profit margin trend

376

442

285335

485 485

5.39

2.08

0.56 0.621.10 1.36

0.00

1.00

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3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

0

100

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300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Interest bearing debt D/E

(THBm) (x)


At the end of 2015, SCI had a D/E ratio of 0.56x, but we expect this ratio to increase slightly to 0.98x in 2017 as the company may borrow more to finance its expansion in Myanmar. We believe the company can finance its expansion without the need to raise additional capital. The company has been reporting positive operating cash flows since 2012.

SCI has a dividend payout policy of no less than 40% of its earnings; as such, we expect the company to pay out at least 40% going forward as we project its earnings to hit record high over the next three years.




Risks Volatility in raw materials. Approximately 70% of SCI’s expenses are raw materials which comprise mainly of steel and zinc. The volatility in steel and zinc can adversely affect the company profitability. However, the company developed a cost plus strategy and locks in the steel needed for the project before signing a contract.

Figure 24: Iron ore price Figure 25: Zinc price

Source: World Bank Source: World Bank

Delay in power transmission line and substation project. Power transmission line and substation project in Laos accounts for a large portion of our revenue forecast. The delay in this project can negatively affect our earnings forecast. However, we believe the project has a low probability of delay since the transmission line is built for a hydro power plant in Laos which will COD in 2018.




• Strong foothold in Laos

• Leading power transmission line tower and telecommunication in the country

• High competition in switch board business

• Expanding its business into CLMV markets where the infrastructure is still underdeveloped

• Volatility in raw material prices

• Unstable revenue stream due to EPC project.

Recommendation Chart

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

Source: RHB, Bloomberg

5.8

6.8

7.8

8.8

9.8

10.8

11.8

Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Mar-16

Price CloseDate Recommendation Target Price Price

2016-03-31


Construction & Engineering | Engineering & Construction

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RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Investment Research Disclaimers RHB has issued this report for information purposes only. This report is intended for circulation amongst RHB and its affiliates’ clients generally or such persons as may be deemed eligible by RHB to receive this report and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. 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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2015

Excellent ADVANC CPN GRAMMY KBANK MCOT PS RATCH SCB THCOM WACOAL BAFS DRT HANA KCE MINT PSL ROBINS SCC TISCO BCP DTAC HMPRO KKP MONO PTT SAMART SE-ED TKT BIGC DTC INTUCH KTB NKI PTTEP SAMTEL SIM TMB BTS EASTW IRPC LHBANK PHOL PTTGC SAT SNC TOP CK EGCO IVL LPN PPS QTC SC SPALI VGI

Very Good AAV BBL COL HEMRAJ MC PG SCG SST THIP TPC TWS ACAP BDMS CPF HOTPOT MEGA PJW SEAFCO STA THRE TPCORP UAC AGE BECL CPI HYDRO MFEC PM SFP STEC THREL TRC UT AHC BKI CSL ICC NBC PPP SIAM SVI TICON TRU UV AKP BLA DCC ICHI NCH PR SINGER SWC TIP TRUE VNT AMATA BMCL DELTA INET NINE PRANDA SIS SYMC TIPCO TSC WAVE ANAN BOL DEMCO IRC NSI PREB SITHAI SYNTEC TK TSTE WINNER AOT BROOK ECF KSL NTV PT SMK TASCO TKS TSTH YUASA APCS BWG EE KTC OCC PTG SMPC TBSP TMI TTA ZMICO ARIP CENTEL ERW LANNA OGC Q-CON SMT TCAP TMILL TTCL ASIMAR CFRESH GBX LH OISHI QH SNP TF TMT TTW ASK CHO GC LOXLEY OTO RS SPI TGCI TNDT TU ASP CIMBT GFPT LRH PAP S&J SSF THAI TNITY TVD BANPU CM GLOBAL MACO PDI SABINA SSI THANA TNL TVO BAY CNT GUNKUL MBK PE SAMCO SSSC THANI TOG TWFP* * On Oct 1,2015 TWFP TWFP merged with TWS resulting in a new company, TWPC

Good 2S AS CBG DNA GCAP ITD LHK MK PATO PTL SEAOIL STPI AEC ASIA CGD EARTH GENCO JSP LIT MODERN PB PYLON SIRI SUC AEONTS AUCT CHG EASON GL JTS LIVE MOONG PCA QLT SKR SUSCO AF AYUD CHOW ECL GLAND JUBILE LST MPG PCSGH RCL SMG SUTHA AH BA CI EFORL GLOW KASET M MSC PDG RICHY SOLAR SYNTEC AIRA BEAUTY CITY ESSO GOLD KBS MAJOR MTI PF RML SORKON TAE AIT BEC CKP FE GYT KCAR MAKRO MTLS PICO RPC SPA TAKUNI AJ BFIT CNS FIRE HTC KGI MATCH NC PL S SPC TCC AKR BH CPALL FOCUS HTECH KKC MATI NOK PLANB SALEE SPCG TCCC AMANAH BIG CPL FORTH IEC KTIS MBKET NUSA PLAT SAPPE SPPT TCJ AMARIN BJC CSC FPI IFEC KWC M-CHAI NWR PPM SAWAD SPVI TEAM AP BJCHI CSP FSMART IFS KYE MFC NYT PRG SCCC SRICHA TFD APCO BKD CSS FSS IHL L&E MILL OCEAN PRIN SCN SSC TFI AQUA BTNC CTW FVC IRCP LALIN MJD PACE PSTC SCP STANLY TIC TIW TPIPL UPF VPO TLUXE TRT UPOIC WHA TMC TSE UREKA WIN TMD TSR UWC XO TOPP UMI VIBHA TPCH UP VIH

IOD (IOD Disclaimer)

การเปิดเผลผลการสํารวจของสมาคมสง่เสริมสถาบนักรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเร่ืองการกํากบัดแูลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นีเ้ป็นการ

ดําเนินการตามนโยบายของสํานกังานคณะกรรมการกํากบัหลกัทรัพย์และตลาดหลกัทรัพย์ โดยการสํารวจของ IOD เป็นการสํารวจและประเมินจากข้อมลูของบรษัทจด

ทะเบียนในตลาดหลกัทรัพย์แหง่ประเทศไทยและตลาดหลกัทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยตอ่สาธารณะและเป็นข้อมลูที่ผู้ลงทนุทัว่ไปสามารถเข้าถงึได้ ดงันัน้ผลสํารวจ

ดงักลา่วจงึเป็นการนําเสนอในมมุมองของบคุคลภายนอกโดยไมไ่ด้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบตัิและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมลูภายในในการประเมิน

อนึ่ง ผลการสาํรวจดงักลา่ว เป็นผลการสํารวจ ณ วนัที่ปรากฎในรายงานการกํากบัดแูละกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเทา่นัน้ ดงันัน้ผลการสํารวจจงึอาจ

เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลงัวนัดงักลา่ว ทัง้นีบ้ริษัทหลกัทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี จํากดั (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยนัหรือรับรองถึงความถกูต้องของผลการสํารวจดงักลา่วแตอ่ยา่งใด

การเปิดเผยข้อมูล Anti-corruption Progress Indicator

ข้อมูล Anti-corruption Progress Indicator จากสถาบนัไทยพฒัน์ (ข้อมูล ณ วนัที ่6 พฤศจิกายน 2558)

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