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Science for Defra: excellence in the application of evidence
Defra Science Showcase Session 3
Climate Change and Environmental Quality
Chair: Professor Louise Heathwaite FRSA, FRSB, FRSE
Marine
Chair: Professor Tim Jickells
Chair: Professor Tim Jickells
The first section considers the implications of climate change and changing working practices for environmental quality.The second section explores the use of monitoring and management for the Marine environment.Climate Change and Environmental QualityChair: Louise Heathwaite, Lancaster University How may UK air quality by impacted by a new shale-gas industry? Developing and applying evidence for a preliminary
regional assessment; Roger Timmis, Environment Agency Resilience of the natural environment: science to support climate change adaptation; Mike Morecroft, Natural England Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment; Molly Anderson, DefraMarineChair: Tim Jickells, University of East Anglia The state of our seas: monitoring then, now and in the future; David Righton, Cefas Marine protected areas and evidence needs: identification to management; Beth Stoker, JNCC Delivering evidence in partnership with academia – experience from the Marine Management Organisation; Adam Cook,
MMO
Science for Defra: excellence in the application of evidence
Defra Science Showcase Session 3
Climate Change and Environmental Quality
Chair: Professor Louise Heathwaite FRSA, FRSB, FRSE
Marine
Chair: Professor Tim Jickells
How may a new shale-gas industry
impact UK regional air quality?
Roger TimmisMark Broomfield
Maria Angeles Solera Garcia
Science for Defra: excellence in the application of evidence
Royal Society 29-30 March 2017
Shale Gas
• Reserves in England + Scotland
• Help economy + energy security
• Environmental risks ? e.g. emissions to air ?
• Environment Agency regulates
• Assess risks e.g. regional air pollution
RegionalAir Pollution• Transboundary
pollution over 100s km
• Secondary pollution formed by chemistry
• Nitrogen Oxides, Particulates, Ozone
• Harm to health, crops, ecosystems
Strategic question: Shale impact on regional air quality?
Preliminary answer: Systematic evidence-based study
Study Design• Source – Pathway – Receptor
model for 2030 scenarios
• Compare base case (no shale) with high + low shale growth
• Source: NW England shale emissions (current technology)
• Pathway: hot summer (2006) meteorology (photochemistry)
• Receptor: monitoring sites, regional mapping, cf. standards
High Growth: 2160 wells
Low Growth: 270 wells
Results
• Percent changes in concentrations due to shale
• Change in all UK regions; most
in NW England but small1-10%
• NO2 and Particulates increase; some Ozone decreases
• Particulates increase by ~1% of standard
• NO2 increases up to 10% of standard
• May affect regulation if air-quality already poor
Change in monthly-average
Ozone for high shale growth
Nitrogen
Conclusion: shale + regional air quality
• Shale impacts are small
• But may be significant if already near limit
• Further work: local NO2
• Well-designed studies clarify risks + priorities
• Structured scenarios answer strategic questions
• Evidence is central to clear decision-making
Resilience of the natural environment:
science to support climate change
adaptation
Mike Morecroft,
Principal Specialist, Climate Change, Natural England
@mike_morecroft
www.gov.uk/natural-england
National Adaptation Programme 2013
Natural environment theme
Building ecological resilience
Preparing for and
accommodating inevitable
change
Valuing the wider adaptation
benefits the natural
environment can deliver
Improving the evidence base
There is strong evidence that climate
change is affecting UK biodiversity
Morecroft & Speakman, 2015
Climate Change Refugia:
Don’t underestimate resilience
Suggitt et al. (2014) Climate change refugia for the flora and fauna of England. Natural England Commissioned Reports 162
Gentiana verna, Upper Teesdale
Land use interactions with climate change:
Large habitat areas build resilience
In house research and monitoring
National Climate Change
Vulnerability Model
NNR Long Term
Monitoring Network
Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk AssessmentMolly Anderson
Delivery Cycle for the CCRA
Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 17
CCRA evidence deadline
UKCP18 release
CCRA Evidence Report Research Priorities
Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 18
What will UKCP18 include?
19
Updated projections of sea-level rise
Projections over UK land areas – 3 work strands
Observational data and trends
Summary of UKCP18 data products
Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 20
Observations
(UK State of the Climate)
Probabilistic Projections Global Projections High resolution
projections
Marine and Coastal
Characteristics Observed trends, long term
cl imatologies and weather
events for the preceding
year.
Updated probability density
functions (PDFs) for the 21st
century. Presented as 30-
year and annual averages.
Single ensemble of ~20
spatially coherent time series
to 2100, selected to explore
the range of future
outcomes. Specific UK focus
for analysis.
High-resolution downscaling
of global projections, at a
sca le that can provide
realistic information on
heavy ra infall events .
Updated sea level rise and
surge projections to 2100
and will include the impacts
of glaciers, ice sheets,
reservoirs and groundwater
as well as thermal expansion.
Model N/A HadCM3, CMIP5, ESM HadGEM3 NWP (used for weather
forecasting)
CMIP5, CS3, Euro-CORDEX
Scale UK UK Global UK UK
Spatial resolution 5km 25km 60km 1.5km, 2.2km or 4km Class A tide gauge sites
Emission scenarios N/A RCP2.6+4.5+6+8.5, plus
SRES A1B to allow direct
comparison
RCP8.5 ensemble (global)
And second lower derived
scenario (tbd) (UK)
RCP8.5 RCP 2.6, 4.5 & 8.5
*This information is correct as of March 2017
Derived products
Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 21
Delivering CCRA3 is a community effort
Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 22
Contact:
Molly Anderson
Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 23
The state of our seas
David Righton
Monitoring then, now and in the
future
Costanza et al., 2014. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services
@DavidRighton
In a paper published in 2014, Robert Costanza and colleagues
estimated that global marine ecosystem services were worth
Earth: Reto Stöckli (based on data from NASA and NOAA)
In 2013, fishing contributed
at first sale and direct jobs.
@DavidRighton
Source: Seafish, Fishing Industry: Key Facts and Information
Overnight stays at the
seaside are the
of the domestic tourism market,
worth
@DavidRighton
Source: Coastal Tourism Academy, Coastal Tourism Summary Report 2016
@DavidRighton
Source: Jennings et al., 2016, Aquatic food security & Seafish, Fishing Industry: Key Facts and Information.
Carbon sequestration by saltmarsh and estuarine
habitat is worth per year in Europe.
@DavidRighton
Source: Luisetti et al., 2013, Valuing the European ‘coastal blue carbon’ storage benefit
UK legislation demands that our seas are
“Clean, Safe, Healthy, Productive, Biologically Diverse”
@DavidRighton
UK Marine Policy Statement
“Monitoring is an intermittent (regular or irregular) series of observations in time, carried out to show the extent of compliance with a formulated standard or degree of deviation from an expected norm”
Brown A. 2000. Habitat monitoring for conservation management and reporting.
@DavidRighton
Future monitoring techniques I: autonomous vehicles
Cefas ‘Lyra’ waveglider
@DavidRighton
Future monitoring techniques II: eDNA
Traditional microscopy techniques for identifying plankton
020
040
060
080
0
Species Clustering
14 13 16 8 201918 1 2 3 12 4 15 5 7 9 6 1711 10
14 13 16 8 20 19 18 1 2 3 12 4 15 5 7 9 6 17 11 10
020
4060
80
LPUE by cluster
BIB
CRE
HAL
JAX
LBE
RJN
TUR
CPR
LIO
LVR
NEP
SBX
SYC
WHE
BRB
BSH
GAG
SBG
SCR
SKH
SMD
ANF
COE
DGS
FLE
GUR
HER
QSC
SAN
SHD
SOL
SQC
WHG
CRW
GRO
LEM
LEZ
LIN
MUR
PLE
RJC
SPR
BLL
COD
CTL
GUG
OCT
PIL
POK
POL
SKA
WIT
DAB
DGX
GUX
HAD
MAC
MUL
RED
RJM
BLI
BSS
DGH
GFB
HKE
RJH
SCE
XXX
TBB effort
Spatial distribution of species Clusters frm VMS data
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2
4748
4950
5152
53
@DavidRighton
Future monitoring techniques III: industry and citizen science
Logbook and VMS data (Kupschus, unpubl.)
STATUSi
WhatWhereWhenWhichWho
STATUSi+1
WhatWhereWhenWhichWho
STATUSj
WhatWhereWhenWhichWho
Assessment
How, Why How, Why
Ecosystem function
Management of marine activities
Status, trend and
process
@DavidRighton
Image credits
@DavidRighton
Cefas images: Lauren Biermann (UK satellite), Simon Armstrong (fishing vessel, scallops, wind turbines), Dave Pearce (Lyra), Rachel Beckett (plankton), Sven Kupschus (fish community structure)
View of the earth: Reto Stöckli (based on data from NASA and NOAA)
Icons in Cefas ‘Evolution on monitoring’ tree: Cezary Lopacinsky (jellyfish), Mohit Arora (waves), Angel Santos Freyta (benthos), Raymond Felix (fish), Rafa Bosch (molecule), Joey Hiller (drinks can), Konrad Michalik (shrimp), Timothy Dilich (microbe), all from the Noun Project.
Marine Protected Areas and evidence
needs: identification to management
Beth Stoker (JNCC)
Sue Ware (Cefas)
Neil Golding (JNCC)
Science for Defra: Excellence in the application of evidence
29th March 2017
Marine Protected Areas in the UK
• 293 MPAs (March 2017)
– > 1,200 designated features
• Evidence is critical to each
stage of the MPA
management cycle, but the
type of evidence needed
changes
Identification
Designation
MP
A m
an
agem
en
t cyc
le
Objectives
Monitoring
Assessment
Management
Example: East of Haig Fras MCZ
Identification
Designation
Objectives
Monitoring
Assessment
Management
Identification
Designation
Objectives
Monitoring
Assessment
Management
Example: East of Haig Fras MCZ
Identification
Designation
Objectives
Monitoring
Assessment
Management
Example: East of Haig Fras MCZ
Identification
Designation
Objectives
Monitoring
Assessment
Management
Example: East of Haig Fras MCZ
Identification
Designation
Objectives
Monitoring
Assessment
Management
The General Management Approaches for the
protected features of East of Haig Fras MCZ are:
Moderate energy
circalittoral rock
Recover to favourable
condition
Subtidal coarse
sediments/Subtidal mixed
sediments mosaic
Subtidal sand
Subtidal mud
Example: East of Haig Fras MCZ
Challenges
• High number of number of
designated features
• Multi-use MPAs – disentangling the causes of change
• Networks of MPAs
• Application of risk-based decision making
Evidence priorities
• Feature relevant metrics and
indicators
• Evidence to support adaptive management
• Improved understanding of natural
variability
• Improved understanding of
impacts of human activities
Delivering evidence in partnership with
academiaExperience from the Marine Management Organisation
Adam Cook
29th March 2017
What does the MMO do?
Marine licensing
Marine nature conservation management
Fisheries management
EMFF administration
Compliance and
enforcementMarine
Planning
Challenges of partnerships
Lot’s of questions that need answering
MMO
• What is out there
• Who is doing (or planning) relevant work
Academics
• What does the MMO do
• What is wanted (and what isn’t!)
• How will it be used
• Why should I engage
• Strategy part I: 2015 – 2020
– What the MMO does
– What scientific evidence the MMO
uses
– Where this evidence comes from
– How it is applied
– What more we need (themes)
• Strategy part 2: 2015 – 2020
– How will we deliver
• Knowledge Exchange
• Partnership
• Influencing research of others
MMO Evidence Strategy
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/evidence-strategy-for-the-marine-management-organisation-
mmo
• One for each of the 60 evidence
requirements
– Requirement detail
– Aims and objectives
– Related requirements
– How it will be used
– External interest
– Existing evidence and current activity
– How it will be delivered and by when
MMO Evidence Delivery Plans
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/evidence-register-and-reports#delivery-plans
MMO-NERC KE Fellowships
• Science Alignment workshop revealed lots of activity and
lack of awareness
• Science-Management “ambassadors” needed
• 2 fellows equivalent to 1.2 FTE funded by NERC
• Successes in first 6 months
– New contacts
– New projects
– PhD students?
– More KE Fellows?
Questions that needed addressing
Evidence Strategy
MMO
• What is out there
• Who is doing (or planning) relevant work
Academics
• What does the MMO do
• What is wanted (and what isn’t!)
• How will it be used
• Why should I engage
Delivery Plans KE Fellows
Questions that needed addressing
Evidence Strategy
MMO
• What is out there
• Who is doing (or planning) relevant work
Academics
• What does the MMO do
• What is wanted (and what isn’t!)
• How will it be used
• Why should I engage
Delivery Plans KE Fellows
Questions that needed addressing
Evidence Strategy
MMO
• What is out there
• Who is doing (or planning) relevant work
Academics
• What does the MMO do
• What is wanted (and what isn’t!)
• How will it be used
• Why should I engage
Delivery Plans KE Fellows