Science, innovation and power: an NGO perspective on agricultural

development in sub-Saharan Africa

Dr Steve Jennings

Oxfam GB

Overview

Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa How change and innovation happen A change that needs to happen ... shared but

differentiated responsibilities between academia and NGOs?

African agriculture: a failure ...

African agriculture: a failure ...

Source: FAO

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Latin America & Caribbean (all income levels) South Asia

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African agriculture: a failure ... or a success?

African agriculture: a failure ... or a success?

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Agriculture accounts for 65% of full-time employment in Africa, and 25–30% of GDP (The Future of Food and Farming, 2011).

96% of agricultural area in sub-Saharan Africa is rainfed (World Bank 2008)

Low profitability and high risks discourage farmers from investing in land and water management – mixed livelihoods strategies are the norm

A 1% increase in agricultural yield translates into a 0.6-1.2 decrease in absolute poor (Thirtle et al., 2001)

African agriculture: challenges now

Scarcity of resources Volatility New dynamics Feeding the 9bn ... Implies massive and sustained change in African

agriculture

African agriculture: challenges ahead

And we already know what to do ...

Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming (2011). Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London.

Or do we ...

Some policy instruments: – Incentives to not waste and disincentives to waste

– Investments in infrastructure and markets Some areas that policy won’t change readily:

– Personal and cultural attitudes and beliefs to food

– The vested interests in selling more

– The reasons why investment hasn’t already been made in infrastructure and markets

Can policy makers reduce food waste?

Much of this change involves shifting power over resources and decisions

1780 - Half a million African slaves work on the sugar plantations of British colonies

1807 - British Parliament bans the slave trade

1838 - slavery banned altogether: 800,000 slaves of the British Empire win their freedom

How change happens: the abolition of slavery

Waves of slave rebellion in America and Caribbean; Haiti becomes first independent black republic in 1804

Individuals and unlikely coalitions: the Anglican preacher Thomas Clarkson, MP William Wilberforce, Olaudah Equiano (ex slave), the Quakers, some prominent industrialists

How was the change brought about?

Cumulative and Sequential

Chaotic

Events, tipping points and lightbulb moments

Demonstration effects

Path dependence

Accumulation of forces

Dynamics of change

Institutions - culture, ethnicity, religion, attitudes and beliefs. Civil service, judiciary, electoral democracy, essential services,

Agents - social movements, elites, leaders, private sector, media

Context - technology, environment, demographics, globalization

Events - wars, disasters, confrontations

Components of change

How painful is the change for different groups?Drivers v blockers (opposed to change) v shifters (could go either way)

In rich countries (waste end loaded), it may well need – a huge shock to make actors receptive?

– unexpected alliance of interests challenging the current food system?

– popular campaigns to change underlying attitudes and beliefs?

– institutions (policy), technology to translate a movement into a new system?

In developing countries (waste front loaded), it may well need– popular demand for democracy and openness (after Sen)?

– leveraged investment (alliances aggregate power?)

– aggregation of farmers or farms (producers able to challenge power)?

Characteristics of who will influence the direction of this change: opportunistic, connector, communicator, organiser

So what does this tell us about reducing waste?

Innovation – process by which an idea is translated into a new good, service or behaviour (creation, prototyping, going to scale)

Works when power isn’t challenged?

Another type of change: innovation

Idea1: don’t focus on agriculture, focus on the ‘system’ (Calestous Juma 2010).

Idea 2: innovation needs hardware (e.g., mobile phones; new crop varieties, new forecasting models), software (knowledge, ways of thinking), and ‘orgware’ (new alliances and social institutions) (Smits 2002).

Idea 3: ‘Orgware’ might be the most important of all: because the problems exist in different realms (policy, technical, institutional) and are dynamic, it’s the range and strength of interactions that counts (Hall 2009)

Innovation in agriculture

One of the 20th Century's top 20 "feed the world" success stories ... Burkina Faso

A “line of stones”

One of the 20th Century's top 20 "feed the world" success stories ... What changed?

Local farmers, with a bit of outside help, began improving, traditional "planting pits" to reclaim severely degraded farmland. Yields went up and farmers started spreading the word.

Another improved technique also spread – "lines of stone" (diguettes) - piling stones along the contours on the (very flat) land to harvest rainfall.

In villages where one or more of these soil and water conservation techniques has been used, 72-94% of the cultivated land has been rehabilitated. Yields have increased by 40-100%. In total, farmers have rehabilitated up to 300,000 hectares and produce an additional 80,000 tons of food per year - enough to feed half a million people.

See http://www.ifpri.org/publication/millions-fed chapter 7

One of the 20th Century's top 20 "feed the world“ success stories ... Lessons

People had reached the point where if they didn't change, they could no longer live in the area (necessity).

The techniques enable farmers to grow more food almost immediately (instant gratification).

Local people as innovators (software). Innovations become mutually reinforcing - a chain reaction of

soil, water and vegetation regeneration (path dependency). Spreading the word through networks and charismatic leaders

(orgware). And a bit of outside help (hardware)

A change for a challenge: the case of seasonal forecasts

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GDP and Rainfall Variability

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Brown and Lall (2006). Natural Resources Forum 30; 306–317

Bubble Size = GDP per capita

(Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall)

Human activity and rainfall

Human activity and rainfall - Ethiopia

Benefits of seasonal forecasts

Seasonal forecasts are probabilistic estimates for 1 (-3-6) months and suggest the total amount of rainfall in the period but not the distribution

Use of seasonal forecasts can increase yields significantly (Patt et al., 2005)

Forecasts used to support farmer’s decisions on planting area, crops and varieties, irrigating, harvesting, fertilizing and pesticide application.

Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder farmers

Reliability Accessibility Application

Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder farmers

Reliability Accessibility Application

Forecasting inequality

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Countries where Oxfam has programmes

Data sources:

(1) Met stations - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Weather Service

(2) GDP per capita at PPP – IMF

(3) Land area - wikipedia

Information Crops Livestock

Distribution of rain through season 1 1

Start of rainy season 2 2

Max. rainfall in one month 3 4

Min. temperatures 4 5

Max. temperatures 5 3

No. Days/months without rain 6 6

Total rainfall in season (seasonal forecast) 7 7

Redrawn from Ziervogel & Calder (2003)

Ranking of climate information desired (Lesotho)

What information?

Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder farmers

Reilability Accessibility Application

Only 39% of respondents (smallholder and commercial farmers, extension and research services) received seasonal forecasts in Free State Province South Africa (Walker et al., 2001)

33% of respondents (almost all farmers/livestock keepers) from Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria were aware of seasonal forecasts (Tarhule & Lamb, 2003)

Women (majority of food producers) would prefer ‘teach ins’ to radio dissemination of forecasts (Archer 2003)

Who gets the forecasts?

Constraints on seasonal forecasts for smallholder farmers

Reliability Accessibility Application

Can the information be used?

Patt, Suarez & Gwata 2005

Overcoming the constraints: some suggestions

Change goalWhat needs to change?

Obstacles / opportunities

Reliability:Forecast reliability;Type of forecast information

Accessibility:

Forecast communicated to users

Application:Users have understanding, assets & services to use forecasts

Lack of Met stations and services, model skill/‘UNFCCC’;Advances in seasonal forecasts

Poorly functioning communications, culture of comms./Digital technology; NGO grassroots leverage

Non-intuitive interpretation; lack of assets &government services/Win-win market relations

‘Poor farmers in sub-Saharan Africa use seasonal forecasts to increase their yield’

Innovation approaches

‘Orgware’: and ‘Software’ pilot new dynamic relationships between forecasters and users

‘Hardware’: invest in better met data and modelling

‘Hardware’: invest in assets and service and ‘Orgware’: producer organisations, new markets

Accessibility:

Application:

Reliability:

Roles of academics and NGOs

Innovation approaches

‘Orgware’: and ‘Software’ pilot new dynamic relationships between forecasters and users

‘Hardware’: invest in better met data and modelling

‘Hardware’: invest in assets and service and ‘Orgware’: producer organisations, new markets

Change goal

‘Poor farmers in sub-Saharan Africa use seasonal forecasts to increase their yield’

Scientists

Scientists & NGO collaboration

NGOs

What needs to change?

Who?

“the most effective way to conduct pro-poor adaptation research may well be to take – from the outset – a holistic view that is informed by engagement and partnership with potential beneficiaries”

Challinor, 2008

Roles of academics and NGOs: a final thought

Development of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is a must – for poverty reduction now and to secure food for the future

Some of the changes will be ‘large and deep’ (and possibly chaotic) with at best a supporting role from science, new technology, development practitioners and campaigners

Significant change is still possible closer to the realm of innovation – where power is not challenged

A particular area of congruence between science and NGOs could be ‘orgware’ – creating new alliances and ‘institutions’ with farmers

Conclusions

Thank you!

A huge and sustained change is needed ... Innovation is necessary A case study of innovation in sub-Saharan African

agriculture How else can we analyse and influence change?

How does change happen?

Why are resources not directed towards climate science in Africa?

Data Scientists (only 2% of lead authors in the Journal

of Climate were affiliated to African institutions) Washington et al., 2006 Advantages planting, irrigating, harvesting,

fertilizing and pesticide application As far as societies are concerned. Climate change

and climate variability are not conveniently separated processes

Change and progress often stem from both the experience of individual extreme events and the material knowledge available to rationally respond to these circumstances. Friedman (1993) provides the example of the October 1921 storm in Scandinavia in his account of the birth of modern meteorology.

There is a consistent gap in productivity between male and female small farmers (of around 20%) due to women systematically having lower access to key production resources, notably inputs and labour as well as equipment. Addressing this gap would enable women to increase their overall output by 10-20% leading to increases in overall agricultural productivity of up to 6%. Increasing the productivity of women farmers will also improve household food security outcomes. (State of Food and Agriculture 2010 FAO; World Bank 1994)

“The poorest developing countries will be hit earliest and hardest by climate change, even though they have contributed little to causing

the problem.”

The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/

“no substantial famine has ever occurred in any independent and democratic country with a relatively free press”

Amartya Sen, ”Democracy as a Universal Value” Journal of Democracy 0.3 (1999) 3-17