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S&T Drive Economic Growth
Scientific and technical changes accounts for as much as 50% of long-run economic growth, even perhaps as much as 75%.
Public Science is Pillar of Industry
73% of science papers cited by U.S. industrial patents were based on research financed by government or nonprofit agencies.
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1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1998 2002 2004
Trends in Basic Research FundingFY 1976-2004
Science is a Principal Driver of Change
SOCIAL CHANGEInternet
ENVIRONMENTALCHANGE
Climate
NATIONALSECURITYCHANGE
Weapons of Mass
Destruction
HEALTH ANDMEDICALCHANGE
Biotechnology
SCIENCE-BASED
ECONOMY
Science has the power to completely transform civilization. For some, science has made life comfortable and secure. For others, it has meant death and destruction
Science Policy Can Drive Outcomes
Types of Benefits
Distribution ofBenefits
Distribution ofProblems
Emergence ofNew Problems
SCIENCEPOLICY
Given the impact of science, science policy is the key variable, yet almost entirely ignored.
Evolution of the U.S. NIS
Laissez-Faire (1790-1940)War and Post-War (1940-1950)Federalization (1950-1975)
Laissex-Faire (1790-1940)
Government has no distinct S&T policy or mission
Key institutions in NIS were independent corporate R&D labs
In the late 19th century, universities emerge as the home of basic science and advanced training
War and Post-War (1940-1950)
Government establishes R&D institutions and expanded academic role to support the war effort
Large-scale federal investment, federally mandated objectives, targeted funding and industry-government cooperation are the norm
By end of war, hundreds of new labs established and potential of large-scale R&D to meet national objectives is demonstrated
Science the Endless Frontier
President Roosevelt asks Vannevar Bush, the director of the war-time OSRD, to look ahead to the role of science in peacetime
Science the Endless Frontier becomes the foundation for U.S. science policy
Foundations of U.S. Science Policy
Republic of Science Self-regulation by scientists
Market Failure Model Basic science as a public good
Unpredictability Science as experimentation
Current Approach to Science Policy
Addresses Conduct of S&T Products and processes of S&T
Assumes All societal outcomes will be positive Linear model of innovation and societal benefit
Inputs Processes Products Outcomes
Federalization: NIS Institutions
Hundred of large industrial labsDozens of large federal labsThousands of small technology-oriented
labs and companiesHundred of unconnected and unplanned
federal labsHundreds of thousands of researchers at
universities
Indications of Societal Transformation
GMO controversyAffordability of AIDS drugsLack of medical insuranceAging of the populationChanging climate
Health (is not always tied to spending)
Country Disability-Adjusted Life Expectancy
Japan 74.5
France 73.1
Sweden 73.0
U.K. 71.7
U.S. 70.0
China 62.3
Iran 60.5
India 53.2
Country Health Expenditures as % of GDP
U.S. 13.7
France 9.8
Sweden 9.2
Japan 7.1
U.K. 5.8
Iran 5.5
China 5.3
India 5.2
DISCUSSION
How can science and science-based technology most effectively contribute to an improved quality of life for the greatest number of people? Malaria is the leading cause of death in young
children. It is estimated that if malaria had been eradicated in Africa by 1960, GDP would be 32% higher than it is today.
Until the 1950s, polio crippled thousands of children every year in industrialized countries.
Dual Agenda: Science and Social Equity
The challenge is to develop S&T policy that reaches a significant proportion of the population S&T and social issues are critically
interdependent Technology strategy drives government
spending and its social outcomes Linear thinking in technology policy is linear
thinking in social outcomes
DISCUSSION
How does the science that we do affect the social choices we make? The two atomic bombs dropped during WWII
killed 150,000 people. More than 100 million women are on birth
control pills. More than 80% of women in the U.S. born after 1945 have used the pill.
DISCUSSION
How do the S&T programs we implement affect the distribution and equity of outcomes? Sub-Saharan Africa holds 2% of the world’s
population, but 30% of the AIDS population Three million people worldwide died of AIDS
this past year, 2.3 million of them in southern Africa
Lessons from Old Science Policy
Desired outcomes can drive the scienceSocietal value of new knowledge is
determined by how it is used and by whom it is used
Societal outcomes reflect who is making science policy
Desired outcomes emerge when scientific advance is well-matched by societal needs
Cycle Dynamics
Conductof Science
EconomicOutcomes
S&TOutcomes
SocietalOutcomes
POLICY New industries
Tech transfer
Knowledge transfer
KnowledgeNetworks
New social structures
EducationNew skills
New institutions
New Science Policy
New Science Policy aims to create knowledge, cultivate public discourse and foster policies that help society grapple with the immense power of science.
A New Science Policy Framework
Outcome-drivenIntegratedInformedSelf-correctingRecognizes and responds to the
inextricable links between science and technology and societal evolution