Science Summit Towards seamless prediction of

weather, climate, water and environment

Commission for Atmospheric Sciences

Øystein Hov Geneva 20 October 2017

Thanks to Jørn Kristiansen, Ivar Seierstad, Thomas Nipen and other colleagues at MET Norway

More and more is at stake related to environmental threats

UN sustainable development goals Goals strongly affected by weather and climate

Weather and climate information important requirements for a knowledge

based approach to most of the sustainability goals («intermediate service»)

WMO CAS Societal challenges a 10y vision

URBANIZATION Research and services for

megacities and large urban complexes

AEROSOLS Impacts on air quality,

weather and climate

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER

and its socio-economic

effects in the context of

global change

WATER Modelling and predicting the water cycle for improved DRR and resource management

Integrated GHG

Information System:

Serving society and supporting

policy

EVOLVING TECHNOLOGIES

Their impact on science and its use

Organised around five themes:

Seamless prediction in 2023: Improving predictive capacity across

weather, climate, water and environment.

Future infrastructures: Planning and investing in future infrastructures

(computing, data-handling, observations).

Science for services: Developing and implementing a new interactive model

for integrating research and operations.

Nurturing scientific talents: Guaranteeing the sustainable development of

science; breaking through geographical, gender and age barriers; ensuring institutional continuity and transfer of knowledge.

Innovation and resources: Catalyzing innovation and mobilizing resources

in weather, climate, water and environment research globally and locally.

WMO Science Agenda will be defined by the upcoming Science Summit and CAS Session –

what does it mean to be a scientist as much as what does a scientist do

Technical University of Denmark 07 November 2016

Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”

Pure Scientist: Communicates facts without paying any attention to the political context

Science Arbiter: Answers questions of policy-makers, but without providing further assistance (e.g. on whether the question is the right one)

Issue Advocate: Uses research results to influence a political agenda, thus narrowing the scope of choices

Honest Broker: Engages actively with policy-makers to solve a particular problem by developing policy alternatives

Roles of scientists vis-à-vis policy-makers (according to Pielke)

Crossing boundaries

Balancing act in research To whom are we responsible?

The importance of maintaining a proper balance between

• Academic excellence

• Responsibility towards each other and society

• Ethics – the way we touch lives and societies

«The balancing act on a three-legged chair»

«Data without boundaries.» The threat in the «free» data world: «The winner takes all»

• Someone may gain information superiority. People are created equal, computers are not

• Ultrainfluential computers operate financial schemes, insurance companies, giant online stores, run elections, run social networks or search services, run national intelligence services, run environmental services, mines data in a research mode

• We live in the information economy,

– which conceals the value of information

– and thereby erodes the middle classes of musicians, journalists, photographers; transportation, manufacturing, energy, office work, education, health care, researchers

• The data at the bottom of the information economy must in general be given a value and be traceable to the «owner»/originator; not totally «free», identity not to be lost by anonymous copying on the Internet

«Who owns the future» Jaron Lanier, 2013, Simon and Schuster Paperbacks

Translational science • Translational medicine is a rapidly growing discipline

in biomedical research and aims to expedite the discovery of new diagnostic tools and treatments by using a multi-disciplinary, collaborative, "bench-to-bedside" approach.

• Atmospheric science can have a similar “Translational Atmospheric Sciences” approach

• Build confidence today that atmospheric science need to be part of the end-to-end solutions

• closing the gap between research and operations – the researcher bedside with the user/patient

Reference: Phil de Cola

Seamless – crossing boundaries - but disciplinary expertise is the fundament

between • Earth system components • Disciplines • Institutions • Organisations • Public-private • Within institutions • Basic/fundamental and applied research • Interoperability across

o observations/observational systems; o model components, o data

• Between spatial and temporal scales • Continuum discovery-translation-application (Paul Nurse)

Seamless prediction in 2023

Diagnostic and prognostic values of fluxes within and between media Values of physical parameters (and biogeochemical)

Crossing boundaries: Coupled land surface-sea surface-water-atmosphere modelling incl ice

Science for service – Quality, relevance and impact User interactions force exploration of «What works»:

economic and social innovation – marine, atmosphere, water, climate, environment

Postprocessing: General public Energy sector Floods Air quality Ecosystems Transport sector (air, shipping, road, rail) Offshore Marine resources waves Storm surges Agriculture and food Tourism Emergency preparedness HiW

Dataassi-milation

EPS

Applied research funding, user involvement

Verification

All specialised users

Users

Backend (THREDDS) Frontend Human interface

Observations, Emisson fluxes, Other boundary conditions

Process description Dynamics Physics, snow, ice, Chemistry Predictability Earth System Model formulation

Research topics Observations

Network projects Thematic orientation

Research funding User involvement

Research funding User involvement

Research funding and funding of operationality

Distributed metadata governed data management NRT-flow and storage

R&D, IT geoscience focus, user competence, communication skills, data policy

Storage

Unidata's Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS)

Core service (R&D driven production)

Observing: Develop, enhance and integrate the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change.

Confining: How to anticipate, recognize, avoid and manage disruptive global environmental

change.

Responding: Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability

Innovating: Encourage innovation in developing technological, policy and social responses to achieve global sustainability.

The five Grand Challenges (ICSU) The future value chain – seamless towards

impact, response, innovation

Consequences for research and education

Forecasting: Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences

Future infrastructure

Observations Interoperability across

observations/observational systems. Data. The siren server.

Integrated systems for analysis and forecasting (seamless GDPFS, IG3IS, WIGOS)

Comparison during an extreme rain event Netatmo observations show good agreement with our own stations and covers a far greater area than our own network

06/08/2016

https://www.netatmo.com/en-US/product/weather/

Comparison with official MET-Norway station We set up a Netatmo station near our own official weather station and found that it gives very similar precipitation and temperature

measurements

24h precipitation at every site Maximum 24h precipitation 8 August 2016 west of Oslo at two neighbouring houses (one unrealistisc recording of 277 mm)

Bygdøy (80.5 mm)

Lilleaker (78 mm)

Besserud (69 mm)

Lambertseter (53 mm)

Ljabruveien (32 mm)

Asker (27 mm; Mangler verdier for 07-23 UTC)

Urealistisk (277 mm)

Høvik (110 mm)

Høvik (105 mm)

Jar (97 mm)

Nesbru (93 mm)

Detection of cold pools in valleys Netatmo observations allow us to detect cold pools in valleys

14/02/2016 06 UTC

Science for service

20

Science for service – Quality, relevance and impact User interactions forces exploration of «What works»:

economic and social innovation – marine, atmosphere, climate Postprocessing: General public Energy sector Floods Air quality Ecosystems Transport sector (air, shipping, road, rail) Offshore Marine resources waves Storm surges Agriculture and food Tourism Emergency preparedness HiW

Dataassi-milation

EPS

Applied research funding, user involvement

Verification

All specialised users

Users

Backend (THREDDS) Frontend Human interface

Observations, Emisson fluxes, Other boundary conditions

Process description Dynamics Physics, snow, ice, Chemistry Predictability Earth System Model formulation

Research topics Observations

Network projects Thematic orientation

Research funding User involvement

Research funding User involvement

Research funding and funding of operationality

Distributed metadata governed data management NRT-flow and storage

R&D, IT geoscience focus, user competence, communication skills, data policy

Storage

Unidata's Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS)

Core service (R&D driven production)

Observing: Develop, enhance and integrate the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change.

Confining: How to anticipate, recognize, avoid and manage disruptive global environmental

change.

Responding: Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability

Innovating: Encourage innovation in developing technological, policy and social responses to achieve global sustainability.

The five Grand Challenges (ICSU) The future value chain – seamless towards

impact, response, innovation

Consequences for research and education

Forecasting: Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences

Science for service - an example:

IGAC/SPARC/GAW three sisters Results to be put to use because of important societal interests;

Atmospheric chemistry matures and coupled to atmospheric physics

and dynamics, land/biosphere, water and ocean (and ice) interaction,

and societal pressures and responses (eg IG3IS).

The seamless modelling approach requires seamless approaches to

observations and data management

We need to household the resources and maximize the impact,

quality and relevance of the science: the redundancy issues between

WCRP-SPARC, IGAC, WMO-CAS

We must attract the best people: the need to organize international

project work in such a way that it is attractive to join for the best

people

What do our sponsors expect from us? (WMO, ICSU, IOC,

UNESCO,....)

Consolidation!

23

Nurturing scientific talents

Value chain

Disciplinary expertise and community

Science for service – Quality, relevance and impact User interactions forces exploration of «What works»:

economic and social innovation – marine, atmosphere, climate Postprocessing: General public Energy sector Floods Air quality Ecosystems Transport sector (air, shipping, road, rail) Offshore Marine resources waves Storm surges Agriculture and food Tourism Emergency preparedness HiW

Dataassi-milation

EPS

Applied research funding, user involvement

Verification

All specialised users

Users

Backend (THREDDS) Frontend Human interface

Observations, Emisson fluxes, Other boundary conditions

Process description Dynamics Physics, snow, ice, Chemistry Predictability Earth System Model formulation

Research topics Observations

Network projects Thematic orientation

Research funding User involvement

Research funding User involvement

Research funding and funding of operationality

Distributed metadata governed data management NRT-flow and storage

R&D, IT geoscience focus, user competence, communication skills, data policy

Storage

Unidata's Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS)

Core service (R&D driven production)

Higher education and research

The Dreyfus model of skill acquisition

Innovation and resources

Mostly social innovation in Earth System science because weather and environmental

information are a public good

MET og NRK

Joerg Klausen, MeteoSwiss 29

Opportunities Population growth – food production – energy production – water availability

and quality – climate change

• 10-fold increase in the need for environmental services over the next decade

• Increasing interoperability in observations systems, model components, (meta)data governance – search, retrieval and application

• Retain disciplinary expertise and enhance skill development in value-chain analysis, translational atmospheric science

Develop a broad and integrated information, prediction and

knowledge system (with regional focus) to inform society of

options regarding mitigation and adaptation strategies

Evolution of interdisciplinary international programs

1996 1986 1980

1991 2001

four Global Environmental Change Programmes

and their partnership towards transdisciplinary integrative science

all co-sponsored by ICSU 32

2013

Future Earth

Global interest of states National

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cien

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ngaged

Rise of Aggressive Nationalism Scenario 4: National and Detached from society

Science for sale in a global

market place Scenario 3: Global and Detached from society

Science Supplying National Needs Scenario 2: National and Engaged with society

The Triumph of Globalism Scenario 1: Global and Engaged with society

Two senior environmental policy makers,

Bo Kjellen, Lars Göran Engfeldt (UNFCCC; S)

• “Complete lack of urgency”.

• International agendas must come together – UNFCCC,

MDGs, Rio+20.

• Science has a role to communicate many

interconnected challenges not isolated challenges.

• Industry has “no confidence” in international political

process.

• The media plays a very important role in developing

political momentum.

• There is a “tragic leadership deficit in the world”.

• The links between ICSU and national governments at a

very senior level are very important.

• The international science community is free from the

kind of political constraints that hampers UN.

Thank you Merci