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Scie
nce
& T
echn
olog
y Sc
ienc
e &
Tec
hnol
ogy
Envi
ronm
enta
l En
viro
nmen
tal S
cann
ing
Scan
ning
Fore
sigh
t Sy
nerg
y N
etw
ork
Fore
sigh
t Sy
nerg
y N
etw
ork
Ott
awa
July
9th
, 200
7O
ttaw
a Ju
ly 9
th, 2
007
By W
alte
r D
erzk
oBy
Wal
ter
Der
zko
416
416 --
533
533 --
9667
9667
Smar
t Ec
onom
y Sm
art
Econ
omy
http
://
http
:// s
mar
teco
nom
y.ty
pepa
d.co
msm
arte
cono
my.
type
pad.
com
Uni
vers
ity o
f To
ront
oU
nive
rsity
of
Toro
nto
Assu
mpt
ion
Assu
mpt
ion
�� Sci
ence
and
Tec
hnol
ogy
(S&
T) s
cann
ing
as a
sta
nd a
lone
Sc
ienc
e an
d Te
chno
logy
(S&
T) s
cann
ing
as a
sta
nd a
lone
ac
tivity
is a
larg
ely
inef
fect
ive,
if it
's n
ot in
tegr
ated
and
ac
tivity
is a
larg
ely
inef
fect
ive,
if it
's n
ot in
tegr
ated
and
co
uple
d w
ith:
coup
led
with
:
��m
anag
eria
l sen
sem
anag
eria
l sen
se-- m
akin
g ac
tiviti
es,
mak
ing
activ
ities
, ��
man
agin
g ris
k an
d un
cert
aint
y,
man
agin
g ris
k an
d un
cert
aint
y,
��pe
riodi
c re
view
s of
dec
isio
npe
riodi
c re
view
s of
dec
isio
n --m
akin
g as
sum
ptio
ns a
nd
mak
ing
assu
mpt
ions
and
m
enta
l mod
els,
m
enta
l mod
els,
��
ongo
ing
stra
tegi
c th
inki
ng a
nd p
lann
ing,
on
goin
g st
rate
gic
thin
king
and
pla
nnin
g,
��fo
resi
ght
activ
ities
suc
h as
sce
nario
pla
nnin
g or
wild
car
d fo
resi
ght
activ
ities
suc
h as
sce
nario
pla
nnin
g or
wild
car
d ex
erci
ses
& c
onse
quen
ce e
xerc
ises
and
ex
erci
ses
& c
onse
quen
ce e
xerc
ises
and
��
polic
y de
velo
pmen
t po
licy
deve
lopm
ent
��al
ong
with
a h
ealth
y do
se o
f la
tera
l cre
ativ
e th
inki
ng.�
alon
g w
ith a
hea
lthy
dose
of
late
ral c
reat
ive
thin
king
.�
��W
alte
r D
erzk
oW
alte
r D
erzk
o
Wha
t is
Env
ironm
enta
l Sca
nnin
g?W
hat
is E
nviro
nmen
tal S
cann
ing?
� Th
e ac
quis
ition
and
use
of
info
rmat
ion
� Th
e ac
quis
ition
and
use
of
info
rmat
ion
abou
t ev
ents
, tre
nds,
and
rel
atio
nshi
ps in
ab
out
even
ts, t
rend
s, a
nd r
elat
ions
hips
in
an o
rgan
izat
ion'
s ex
tern
al e
nviro
nmen
t,
an o
rgan
izat
ion'
s ex
tern
al e
nviro
nmen
t,
the
know
ledg
e of
whi
ch w
ould
ass
ist
the
know
ledg
e of
whi
ch w
ould
ass
ist
man
agem
ent
in p
lann
ing
the
orga
niza
tions
m
anag
emen
t in
pla
nnin
g th
e or
gani
zatio
ns
futu
re c
ours
e of
act
ion�
fu
ture
cou
rse
of a
ctio
n�
Sour
ce:
Sour
ce:
Agui
lar
1967
and
Cho
o 19
98a;
Ag
uila
r 19
67 a
nd C
hoo
1998
a;
Scan
ning
Obj
ectiv
esSc
anni
ng O
bjec
tives
��D
etec
ting
Det
ectin
gim
port
ant
econ
omic
, soc
ial,
cultu
ral,
envi
ronm
enta
l, im
port
ant
econ
omic
, soc
ial,
cultu
ral,
envi
ronm
enta
l, he
alth
, sci
entif
ic, t
echn
olog
ical
, and
pol
itica
l tre
nds,
situ
ati
heal
th, s
cien
tific
, tec
hnol
ogic
al, a
nd p
oliti
cal t
rend
s, s
ituat
i ons
, and
on
s, a
nd
even
tsev
ents
��Id
entif
ying
Iden
tifyi
ngth
e po
tent
ial o
ppor
tuni
ties
and
thre
ats
for
the
the
pote
ntia
l opp
ortu
nitie
s an
d th
reat
s fo
r th
e or
gani
satio
n im
plie
d by
the
se t
rend
s, s
ituat
ions
, and
eve
nts
orga
nisa
tion
impl
ied
by t
hese
tre
nds,
situ
atio
ns, a
nd e
vent
s
��G
aini
ng a
n ac
cura
te
Gai
ning
an
accu
rate
und
erst
andi
ngun
ders
tand
ing
of y
our
orga
niza
tion'
s st
reng
ths
of y
our
orga
niza
tion'
s st
reng
ths
and
limita
tions
an
d lim
itatio
ns
��Pr
ovid
ing
Prov
idin
ga
basi
s fo
r an
alys
is o
f fu
ture
pro
gram
inve
stm
ents
a ba
sis
for
anal
ysis
of
futu
re p
rogr
am in
vest
men
ts
Sour
ce:
http
://w
ww
.cce
.cor
nell.
edu/
adm
in/p
rogr
am/d
ocum
ents
/sca
niSo
urce
: ht
tp:/
/ww
w.c
ce.c
orne
ll.ed
u/ad
min
/pro
gram
/doc
umen
ts/s
cani
ntr.
htm
nt
r.ht
m
A ch
angi
ng g
loba
l iss
ues
map
A ch
angi
ng g
loba
l iss
ues
map
Econ
omy
Tech
nolo
gy
Acce
ssib
ility
Glo
balis
atio
n
Ener
gyEn
viro
nmen
tSe
curit
ySu
rpris
es
Wel
l-bei
ng
Net
wor
ked
Wor
ld
Asia
Pers
onal
izat
ion
Dem
ogra
phic
s
Sust
aina
bilit
y
Smar
t Tec
hn
Sour
ce:
Shap
ing
Tom
orro
w (
UK)
Whe
re t
o St
art?
Whe
re t
o St
art?
��Sc
anni
ng is
not
a m
onol
ithic
act
ivity
.Sc
anni
ng is
not
a m
onol
ithic
act
ivity
.
��En
viro
nmen
tal s
cann
ing
incl
udes
bot
h En
viro
nmen
tal s
cann
ing
incl
udes
bot
h lo
okin
g at
lo
okin
g at
info
rmat
ion
info
rmat
ion
(vie
win
g) a
nd
(vie
win
g) a
nd lo
okin
g fo
r lo
okin
g fo
r in
form
atio
n (s
earc
hing
).
info
rmat
ion
(sea
rchi
ng).
��R
esea
rch
in o
rgan
izat
ion
scie
nce
sugg
ests
tha
t it
mig
ht b
e he
lpf
Res
earc
h in
org
aniz
atio
n sc
ienc
e su
gges
ts t
hat
it m
ight
be
help
f ul t
o ul
to
dist
ingu
ish
betw
een
four
mod
es o
f or
gani
zatio
nal s
cann
ing:
di
stin
guis
h be
twee
n fo
ur m
odes
of
orga
niza
tiona
l sca
nnin
g:
--un
dire
cted
vie
win
g: s
ensi
ngun
dire
cted
vie
win
g: s
ensi
ng--
cond
ition
ed v
iew
ing:
sen
seco
nditi
oned
vie
win
g: s
ense
-- mak
ing
mak
ing
--in
form
al s
earc
h: le
arni
ngin
form
al s
earc
h: le
arni
ng--
form
al s
earc
h: d
ecid
ing
form
al s
earc
h: d
ecid
ing
Sour
ce:
The
Art
of S
cann
ing
the
Envi
ronm
ent,
ASI
S Bu
lletin
So
urce
: Th
e Ar
t of
Sca
nnin
g th
e En
viro
nmen
t, A
SIS
Bulle
tin A
rtic
le P
reAr
ticle
Pre
-- prin
t,pr
int,
Chun
Wei
Cho
o, F
acul
ty o
f In
form
atio
n St
udie
s,
Chun
Wei
Cho
o, F
acul
ty o
f In
form
atio
n St
udie
s, U
nive
rsity
of To
ront
oU
nive
rsity
of To
ront
o
Info
rmal
sea
rch
Form
al s
earc
h
Sour
ce:
Envi
ronm
enta
l sca
nnin
g as
info
rmat
ion
seek
ing
and
orga
niza
tiona
l lea
rnin
g ;
Choo
, 20
01
Gen
eral
sca
nnin
g,
brow
sing
with
no
part
icul
ar
purp
ose�
notic
ing
Pass
ive
sear
ch, r
eply
ing
on r
outin
e& for
mal
dat
a w
ithin
tra
ditio
nal
boun
darie
s�w
atch
ing
for?
Rel
ativ
ely
limite
d &
un
stru
ctur
ed e
ffor
t to
ob
tain
par
ticul
ar in
fo for
pa
rtic
ular
pu
rpos
e�.e
xper
imen
ting
Del
iber
ate
plan
ned
sear
ch, i
n an
eff
ort
to
obta
in s
peci
fic in
fo for
a
spec
ific
pu
rpos
e�di
scov
erin
g
Sour
ce:
Envi
ronm
enta
l sca
nnin
g as
info
rmat
ion
seek
ing
and
orga
niza
tiona
l lea
rnin
g ;
Choo
, 200
1
Env
Env
Scan
ning
as
Info
Sea
rchi
ngSc
anni
ng a
s In
fo S
earc
hing
Sour
ce:
Envi
ronm
enta
l sca
nnin
g as
info
rmat
ion
seek
ing
and
orga
niza
tiona
l lea
rnin
g ;
Choo
, 200
1
Env
Env
Scan
ning
as
Scan
ning
as
Org
�nO
rg�n
Lear
ning
Lear
ning
Scan
ning
Tim
efra
mes
Scan
ning
Tim
efra
mes
��A
dA
d-- h
oc s
can
nin
gh
oc s
can
nin
g--
Shor
t te
rm, i
nfre
quen
t ex
amin
atio
ns u
sual
ly in
itiat
ed
Shor
t te
rm, i
nfre
quen
t ex
amin
atio
ns u
sual
ly in
itiat
ed
by a
cris
is
by a
cris
is
��R
egu
lar
scan
nin
gR
egu
lar
scan
nin
g--
Stud
ies
done
on
a re
gula
r sc
hedu
le (
say,
onc
e a
year
) St
udie
s do
ne o
n a
regu
lar
sche
dule
(sa
y, o
nce
a ye
ar)
��C
onti
nu
ous
scan
nin
gC
onti
nu
ous
scan
nin
g--
(als
o ca
lled
cont
inuo
us le
arni
ng)
(als
o ca
lled
cont
inuo
us le
arni
ng)
--co
ntin
uous
co
ntin
uous
st
ruct
ured
dat
a co
llect
ion
and
proc
essi
ng o
n a
broa
d ra
nge
of
stru
ctur
ed d
ata
colle
ctio
n an
d pr
oces
sing
on
a br
oad
rang
e of
en
viro
nmen
tal f
acto
rs
envi
ronm
enta
l fac
tors
��M
ost
com
men
tato
rs f
eel t
hat
in t
oday
's t
urbu
lent
bus
ines
s en
viro
Mos
t co
mm
enta
tors
fee
l tha
t in
tod
ay's
tur
bule
nt b
usin
ess
envi
ronm
ent
the
nmen
t th
e be
st s
cann
ing
met
hod
avai
labl
e is
con
tinuo
us s
cann
ing.
Thi
s al
lobe
st s
cann
ing
met
hod
avai
labl
e is
con
tinuo
us s
cann
ing.
Thi
s al
low
s th
e fir
m
ws
the
firm
to
act
qui
ckly
, tak
e ad
vant
age
of o
ppor
tuni
ties
befo
re c
ompe
tito
to a
ct q
uick
ly, t
ake
adva
ntag
e of
opp
ortu
nitie
s be
fore
com
petit
o rs
do, an
d rs
do,
and
re
spon
d to
env
ironm
enta
l thr
eats
bef
ore
sign
ifica
nt d
amag
e is
do
resp
ond
to e
nviro
nmen
tal t
hrea
ts b
efor
e si
gnifi
cant
dam
age
is d
o nene
��So
urce
: W
ikip
edia
Sour
ce:
Wik
iped
ia
Scan
ning
Sou
rces
Scan
ning
Sou
rces
��Su
ppor
ted
by a
con
tinuu
m o
f on
line
info
rmat
ion
gath
erin
g an
d Su
ppor
ted
by a
con
tinuu
m o
f on
line
info
rmat
ion
gath
erin
g an
d co
mm
unic
atio
n m
etho
ds t
hat
rang
e fr
om:
com
mun
icat
ion
met
hods
tha
t ra
nge
from
:
--in
form
atio
n ch
arac
teris
ed b
y no
velty
and
var
iety
to
info
rmat
ion
char
acte
rised
by
nove
lty a
nd v
arie
ty t
oin
form
atio
n ch
arac
teriz
ed b
y ac
cura
cy a
nd f
ocus
; in
form
atio
n ch
arac
teriz
ed b
y ac
cura
cy a
nd f
ocus
; --
seco
ndar
y so
urce
s to
prim
ary
sour
ces;
se
cond
ary
sour
ces
to p
rimar
y so
urce
s;
--m
any
man
y --toto
-- man
y co
mm
unic
atio
ns (
new
sgro
ups,
mai
ling
man
y co
mm
unic
atio
ns (
new
sgro
ups,
mai
ling
lists
) to
one
lists
) to
one
-- toto-- o
ne c
omm
unic
atio
ns (
eon
e co
mm
unic
atio
ns (
e --m
ail,
mai
l, te
leph
one,
fac
ete
leph
one,
fac
e --toto
-- fac
e m
eetin
g);
face
mee
ting)
; --
the
chao
tic, i
nfor
mal
Wor
ld W
ide
Web
to
the
th
e ch
aotic
, inf
orm
al W
orld
Wid
e W
eb t
o th
e
stru
ctur
ed, f
orm
al o
nlin
e da
taba
ses
stru
ctur
ed, f
orm
al o
nlin
e da
taba
ses
Sour
ce:
The
Art
of S
cann
ing
the
Envi
ronm
ent,
ASI
S Bu
lletin
Art
icSo
urce
: Th
e Ar
t of
Sca
nnin
g th
e En
viro
nmen
t, A
SIS
Bulle
tin A
rtic
le P
rele
Pre
-- prin
t,pr
int,
Chun
Wei
Cho
o, F
acul
ty o
f In
form
atio
n St
udie
s, U
nive
Chun
Wei
Cho
o, F
acul
ty o
f In
form
atio
n St
udie
s, U
nive
rsity
of To
ront
ors
ity o
f To
ront
o
Popu
lar
Scie
nce
& T
echn
olog
y So
urce
sPo
pula
r Sc
ienc
e &
Tec
hnol
ogy
Sour
ces
��W
ho f
unds
res
earc
h? (
NSF
, W
ho f
unds
res
earc
h? (
NSF
, D
ARPA
, DO
E, N
SER
C et
c)D
ARPA
, DO
E, N
SER
C et
c)��
11ststan
nual
con
f on
�..
annu
al c
onf
on�
..��
Eure
ka A
lert
(AA
AS)
Eure
ka A
lert
(AA
AS)
��Sc
ienc
e D
aily
Scie
nce
Dai
ly��
New
Sci
entis
t, N
atur
e, S
cien
ceN
ew S
cien
tist,
Nat
ure,
Sci
ence
��O
ther
pee
rO
ther
pee
r --re
view
ed a
cade
mic
re
view
ed a
cade
mic
jo
urna
lsjo
urna
ls��
MIT
Tec
hnol
ogy
Rev
iew
MIT
Tec
hnol
ogy
Rev
iew
��Ph
ysO
rg N
ewsl
ette
rPh
ysO
rg N
ewsl
ette
r��
Vario
us b
logs
Vario
us b
logs
��Sc
ienc
e Co
lum
ns, N
YT;
Scie
nce
Colu
mns
, NYT
; W
ashi
ngto
n Po
st;
Sydn
ey
Was
hing
ton
Post
; Sy
dney
M
orni
ng H
eral
d Te
chno
logy
M
orni
ng H
eral
d Te
chno
logy
D
aily
etc
.D
aily
etc
.
��CN
etCN
et��
Slas
hdot
Slas
hdot
��W
ired
Wire
d��
IEEE
Spe
ctru
mIE
EE S
pect
rum
��Fr
esh
Pate
nts
Fres
h Pa
tent
s��
Ray
Kur
swei
lRay
Kur
swei
l��
Vario
us
Vario
us b
logs
blog
s��
The
Smar
t Ec
onom
yTh
e Sm
art
Econ
omy
��ED
S N
ext
Big
Thin
gED
S N
ext
Big
Thin
g��
Futu
re S
urve
y (W
FS)
Futu
re S
urve
y (W
FS)
��Sy
ndic
ated
New
s Se
rvic
es
Synd
icat
ed N
ews
Serv
ices
��
Shap
ing
Tom
orro
w (
UK)
Shap
ing
Tom
orro
w (
UK)
��Co
nfer
ence
s &
wor
ksho
psCo
nfer
ence
s &
wor
ksho
ps
Sour
ce:
The
Smar
t Ec
onom
y Bl
og;
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adm
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http
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.cce
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nell.
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adm
in/p
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am/d
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niSo
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w.c
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T) s
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T) s
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d An
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is
��Be
lief
Net
wor
ks D
iagr
ams
and
Anal
ysis
Belie
f N
etw
orks
Dia
gram
s an
d An
alys
is
��Ba
lanc
ed S
core
Car
d fo
r Kn
owle
dge
Bala
nced
Sco
re C
ard
for
Know
ledg
e M
anag
emen
tM
anag
emen
t
��Co
ncep
t M
appi
ng a
nd A
naly
sis
Conc
ept
Map
ping
and
Ana
lysi
s
��Co
ncep
t Ch
alle
nge
Map
sCo
ncep
t Ch
alle
nge
Map
s
��Co
nseq
uenc
e M
aps
Cons
eque
nce
Map
s
��Kn
owle
dge
VEE
Dia
gram
s an
d An
alys
isKn
owle
dge
VEE
Dia
gram
s an
d An
alys
is
��Kn
owle
dge
Prop
agat
ion
Dia
gram
s an
d Kn
owle
dge
Prop
agat
ion
Dia
gram
s an
d An
alys
isAn
alys
is
��Kn
owle
dge
Pool
Map
ping
and
Ana
lysi
sKn
owle
dge
Pool
Map
ping
and
Ana
lysi
s
��Kn
owle
dge
Wor
kflo
w D
iagr
ams
and
Know
ledg
e W
orkf
low
Dia
gram
s an
d An
alys
isAn
alys
is
��Kn
owle
dge
Proc
ess
Dia
gram
s an
d Kn
owle
dge
Proc
ess
Dia
gram
s an
d An
alys
is S
yste
ms
Anal
ysis
Sys
tem
s
��Th
inki
ng D
iagr
ams
and
Anal
ysis
Thin
king
Dia
gram
s an
d An
alys
is
��Si
mul
atio
n D
evel
opm
ent
and
Anal
ysis
Sim
ulat
ion
Dev
elop
men
t an
d An
alys
is
��Po
int
Poin
t --ofof
-- Vie
w (
POV)
Map
s an
d An
alys
isVi
ew (
POV)
Map
s an
d An
alys
is
Sou
rce:
Der
zko;
Ide
a La
b 19
98
Key
? W
hen
to
use
th
em a
nd
in w
hat
mix
?
Poin
tPo
int --
ofof-- V
iew
(PO
V)
Maps
and
Vie
w (
POV
) M
aps
and
Analy
sis,
Ass
um
ption
Test
ing
Analy
sis,
Ass
um
ption
Test
ing
Exp
an
d w
orl
d v
iew
Exp
an
d w
orl
d v
iew
;;div
erg
ent
thin
kin
g,
from
bla
ck
div
erg
ent
thin
kin
g,
from
bla
ck
and w
hite
to f
ull
spec
trum
and w
hite
to f
ull
spec
trum
th
inkin
g &
late
ral t
hin
kin
g;
thin
kin
g &
late
ral t
hin
kin
g;
expand
expand
3.0
3.0
Dic
ho
tom
ou
s th
inkin
gD
ich
oto
mo
us
thin
kin
gor
or
dic
hot
omy
(seein
g o
nly
tw
o dic
hot
omy
(seein
g o
nly
tw
o op
tion
s, e
ither
option
s, e
ither
-- or)
,or
),
gap a
naly
sis
, te
ch r
oadm
aps.
gap a
naly
sis
, te
ch r
oadm
aps.
gener
ic t
echnolo
gy
evolu
tion
gener
ic t
echnolo
gy
evolu
tion
m
aps,
CM
C,
DSS,
DBM
Sm
aps,
CM
C,
DSS,
DBM
S
Inte
rpre
t, C
lass
ify,
Cert
ify,
Inte
rpre
t, C
lass
ify,
Cert
ify,
Veri
fy:
Veri
fy:
ass
em
ble
Bro
ad f
lexib
le
ass
em
ble
Bro
ad f
lexib
le
net
wor
ks,
Face
net
wor
ks,
Face
-- 22-- F
ace
, ask
ing
Face
, ask
ing
right
quest
ions,
conve
rgent
right
quest
ions,
conve
rgent
thin
kin
g,
late
ral t
hin
kin
g;
get
thin
kin
g,
late
ral t
hin
kin
g;
get
info
; in
fer,
ass
um
e o
r pre
dic
t,
info
; in
fer,
ass
um
e o
r pre
dic
t,
be f
lexib
le,
buff
er
from
cri
tics
be f
lexib
le,
buff
er
from
cri
tics
2.0
2.0
Un
cert
ain
tyU
nce
rtain
ty(
lack
of
data
(
lack
of
data
or
eve
n w
hic
h q
uest
ions
to a
sk
or e
ven w
hic
h q
uest
ions
to a
sk
to f
ind t
he info
rmation
),to
fin
d t
he info
rmation),
One
Def
initio
n w
ith s
om
e
One
Def
initio
n w
ith s
om
e
cert
ainty
or
pre
dic
tabili
tyce
rtai
nty
or
pre
dic
tabili
ty
2x2
matr
ix o
r sc
enar
io b
uild
ing,
2x2
matr
ix o
r sc
enar
io b
uild
ing,
contr
adic
tion m
ap,
contr
adic
tion m
ap,
create
nove
l fr
am
ew
ork,
cr
eate
nove
l fr
am
ew
ork,
sy
stem
dyn
am
ics
modelin
g,
syst
em
dyn
am
ics
modelin
g,
tech
roa
dm
aps,
6 t
hin
kin
g h
ats,
te
ch r
oadm
aps,
6 t
hin
kin
g h
ats,
via
ble
sys
tem
s m
odelin
g
via
ble
sys
tem
s m
odelin
g
(VSM
),(V
SM
),
Inte
rpre
t, C
lass
ify,
Cla
rify
;In
terp
ret,
Cla
ssif
y,
Cla
rify
;ass
em
ble
div
ers
e ex
pert
ass
em
ble
div
ers
e ex
pert
net
wor
ks;
net
wor
ks;
Face
Face
-- 22-- F
ace
; ask
ing t
he r
ight
Face
; ask
ing t
he r
ight
quest
ions,
key
issu
es
? ke
y quest
ions,
key
issu
es
? ke
y unce
rtain
ties
? div
erg
ent
unce
rtain
ties
? div
erg
ent
follo
wed b
y co
nve
rgent
follo
wed b
y co
nve
rgent
thin
kin
g,
late
ral t
hin
kin
g;
thin
kin
g,
late
ral t
hin
kin
g;
refr
am
e, e
nact
, hyp
othes
ize,
re
fram
e, e
nact
, hyp
othes
ize,
te
stte
st
1.0
1.0
Am
big
uit
yA
mb
igu
ity
( la
ck o
f any
( la
ck o
f any
fram
ew
ork)
,fr
am
ew
ork)
,N
o D
efinitio
ns
No
Definitio
ns
To
ols
/M
eth
od
s to
To
ols
/M
eth
od
s to
ad
dre
ss p
rob
lem
ad
dre
ss p
rob
lem
Str
ate
gy/ta
ctic
s/S
trate
gy/ta
ctic
s/co
gn
itiv
e s
kil
lsco
gn
itiv
e s
kil
lsto
to
ad
dre
ss p
rob
lem
ad
dre
ss p
rob
lem
Kn
ow
led
ge P
rob
lem
Kn
ow
led
ge P
rob
lem
Ind
ete
rmin
ati
on
Ind
ete
rmin
ati
on
Sou
rce:
Der
zko;
Ide
a La
b 19
98
conce
pt
maps,
lis
ts,
min
d
conce
pt
maps,
lis
ts,
min
d
maps,
taxon
om
y engin
es,
m
aps,
taxon
om
y engin
es,
vis
ualiz
ation
too
ls,
vis
ualiz
ation
too
ls,
sum
mari
zation
engin
es,
sum
mari
zation
engin
es,
conce
pt
ext
ract
ion e
ngin
es,
co
nce
pt
ext
ract
ion e
ngin
es,
se
ntim
ent
engin
es,
XTM
, se
ntim
ent
engin
es,
XTM
, vis
ualiz
ation
sof
tware
vis
ualiz
ation
sof
tware
-- info
in
fo
conto
ur
maps
& a
ffin
ity m
aps,
co
nto
ur
maps
& a
ffin
ity m
aps,
ta
ggin
g,
folk
sonom
ies
taggin
g,
folk
sonom
ies
Ord
er;
Ord
er;
create
ord
er
out
of
create
ord
er
out
of
com
ple
xity,
chunk,
parc
el,
com
ple
xity,
chunk,
parc
el,
cate
gori
ze,
org
aniz
e,
colle
ct,
cate
gori
ze,
org
aniz
e,
colle
ct,
clust
er,
reduct
ionis
t appro
ach
, cl
ust
er,
reduct
ionis
t appro
ach
, ke
y co
nce
pts
, im
pos
eke
y co
nce
pts
, im
pos
eSyn
thes
isSyn
thes
is
7.0
) 7.0
) In
fog
lut
Info
glu
t ; d
ata
flo
od
; data
flo
od
Know
ledge P
ool M
appin
g a
nd
Know
ledge P
ool M
appin
g a
nd
Analy
sis,
Know
ledge V
EE
Analy
sis,
Know
ledge V
EE
Dia
gra
ms
and A
naly
sis,
Belie
f D
iagra
ms
and A
naly
sis,
Belie
f N
etw
orks
Dia
gra
ms
and
Netw
orks
Dia
gra
ms
and
Analy
sis,
Oppor
tunity C
linic
, Analy
sis,
Oppor
tunity C
linic
, ta
ggin
g,
folk
sonom
ies
taggin
g,
folk
sonom
ies
Un
ify
Un
ify
;;Tig
ht
Expert
Netw
ork
s,
Tig
ht
Expert
Netw
ork
s,
make
sure
eve
ryon
e has
all
make
sure
eve
ryon
e has
all
definitio
ns
stra
ight.
definitio
ns
stra
ight.
op
por
tunity;
searc
h,
negot
iate
, op
por
tunity;
searc
h,
negot
iate
, im
pos
eim
pos
e
6.0
6.0
eq
uiv
oca
lity
eq
uiv
oca
lity
( m
ultip
le
( m
ultip
le
inte
rpre
tation
s of sa
me e
vents
in
terp
reta
tions
of s
am
e e
vents
or
data
).or
data
).M
ultip
le D
efinitio
ns
Multip
le D
efinitio
ns
TRIZ
, oppor
tunity
win
dow
s,
TRIZ
, oppor
tunity
win
dow
s,
conce
pt
maps
conce
pt
maps
Reco
gn
ize;
Reco
gn
ize;
Seiz
eS
eiz
e; ;
Co
nvert
;C
on
vert
;co
nce
pt
mappin
g,
ass
um
ption
conce
pt
mappin
g,
ass
um
ption
mappin
g,
oppor
tunity
searc
hm
appin
g,
oppor
tunity
searc
h
5.0
5.0
co
ntr
ad
icti
on
or
para
do
xco
ntr
ad
icti
on
or
para
do
x(
we u
sually
dis
mis
s and ignor
e (
we u
sually
dis
mis
s and ignor
e su
ch d
ata
)su
ch d
ata
)
To
ols
/M
eth
od
s to
ad
dre
ss
To
ols
/M
eth
od
s to
ad
dre
ss
pro
ble
mp
rob
lem
Str
ate
gy/
tact
ics/
cog
nit
ive
Str
ate
gy/
tact
ics/
cog
nit
ive
skil
lssk
ills
to a
dd
ress
pro
ble
mto
ad
dre
ss p
rob
lem
Kn
ow
led
ge P
rob
lem
Kn
ow
led
ge P
rob
lem
Ind
ete
rmin
ati
on
Ind
ete
rmin
ati
on
syst
em
dyn
am
ics
syst
em
dyn
am
ics
maps,
m
aps,
vis
ualiz
ation
sof
tware
, C
MC
, vis
ualiz
ation
sof
tware
, C
MC
, D
SS,
Exp
ert
Sys
tem
s, K
MS
DSS,
Exp
ert
Sys
tem
s, K
MS
Deco
mp
ose
; D
eco
nst
ruct
; D
eco
mp
ose
; D
eco
nst
ruct
; S
imp
lify
Sim
pli
fy;;
hie
rarc
hy,
direct
ed
hie
rarc
hy,
direct
ed
expert
ise
net
wor
ks,
syst
em
ex
pert
ise
net
wor
ks,
syst
em
th
inkin
g,
div
erg
ent
thin
kin
g;
thin
kin
g,
div
erg
ent
thin
kin
g;
add inte
llect
ual ca
pabili
ties:
( add inte
llect
ual ca
pabili
ties:
( exp
ert
s ,
tech
nolo
gy,
tra
inin
g),
exp
ert
s ,
tech
nolo
gy,
tra
inin
g),
ex
pand,
connec
t, m
ap
expand,
connec
t, m
ap
4.0
4.0
co
mp
lexit
yco
mp
lexit
y(t
oo m
any
(too
many
inte
rrela
ted c
om
pon
ents
or
inte
rrela
ted c
om
pon
ents
or
even
ts t
o m
anage o
r ev
ents
to m
anage o
r under
stand t
he
spec
ific
under
stand t
he
spec
ific
w
orkin
gs
of
i.e.
our
body,
work
ings
of
i.e.
our
bod
y,
clim
ate
change)
One
Def
initio
n
clim
ate
change)
One
Def
initio
n
with C
ert
ain
ty b
ut
with m
any
with C
ert
ain
ty b
ut
with m
any
rela
ted p
art
s, e
lem
ents
rela
ted p
art
s, e
lem
ents
Sou
rce:
Der
zko
Idea
Lab
199
8
Trad
ition
al D
efin
ition
of
Trad
ition
al D
efin
ition
of
data
, inf
orm
atio
n, k
now
ledg
eda
ta, i
nfor
mat
ion,
kno
wle
dge
Spec
trum
of Ac
adem
ic R
esea
rch
Spec
trum
of Ac
adem
ic R
esea
rch
& M
ilita
ry A
pplic
atio
ns&
Mili
tary
App
licat
ions
Sens
eSe
nse --
mak
ing
Conc
eptu
al
mak
ing
Conc
eptu
al
Fram
ewor
kFr
amew
ork
SEN
SEM
AKIN
G S
YMPO
SIU
M 2
3-25
Oct
ober
200
1; C
omm
and
and
Cont
rol
Res
earc
h Pr
ogra
m;
Off
ice
of t
he A
ssis
tant
Sec
reta
ry o
f D
efen
se f
or C
omm
and,
Co
ntro
l, Co
mm
unic
atio
ns a
nd I
ntel
ligen
ce;
USA
Sour
ce:
Mak
ing
Sens
e of
Sen
sem
akin
g2
a m
acro
cogn
itive
mod
el;
IEEE
Int
ellig
ent
Syst
ems
2006
Myt
h: S
ense
Myt
h: S
ense
-- mak
ing
is s
impl
y m
akin
g is
sim
ply
conn
ectin
g th
e do
tsco
nnec
ting
the
dots
��W
e of
ten
hear
thi
s m
etap
horic
al d
escr
iptio
n of
cog
nitiv
e W
e of
ten
hear
thi
s m
etap
horic
al d
escr
iptio
n of
cog
nitiv
e w
ork,
esp
ecia
lly in
the
inte
llige
nce
com
mun
ityw
ork,
esp
ecia
lly in
the
inte
llige
nce
com
mun
ity��
9/11
9/
11 ��
a fa
ilure
of
conn
ectin
g th
e do
tsa
failu
re o
f co
nnec
ting
the
dots
��To
o si
mpl
istic
; tr
ivia
lizes
cog
nitiv
e w
ork
Too
sim
plis
tic;
triv
ializ
es c
ogni
tive
wor
k��
Mis
ses
the
skill
of
wha
t co
unts
as
a �d
ot�
in t
he f
irst
Mis
ses
the
skill
of
wha
t co
unts
as
a �d
ot�
in t
he f
irst
plac
epl
ace
��Rel
atin
g do
ts is
crit
ical
but
als
o Rel
atin
g do
ts is
crit
ical
but
als
o ��
whi
ch d
ots
are
tran
sien
t si
gnal
s w
hich
dot
s ar
e tr
ansi
ent
sign
als
��w
hich
are
fal
se s
igna
ls o
r no
ise
that
sho
uld
be ig
nore
d;
whi
ch a
re f
alse
sig
nals
or
nois
e th
at s
houl
d be
igno
red;
��
whi
ch a
re w
eak
sign
als
of c
hang
e, t
hat
coul
d gr
ow in
to t
rend
s w
hich
are
wea
k si
gnal
s of
cha
nge,
tha
t co
uld
grow
into
tre
nds
and
maj
or d
river
s ov
er t
ime
and
maj
or d
river
s ov
er t
ime
Assu
mpt
ion
Assu
mpt
ion
�� Sci
ence
and
Tec
hnol
ogy
(S&
T) s
cann
ing
as a
sta
nd a
lone
Sc
ienc
e an
d Te
chno
logy
(S&
T) s
cann
ing
as a
sta
nd a
lone
ac
tivity
is a
larg
ely
inef
fect
ive,
if it
's n
ot in
tegr
ated
and
ac
tivity
is a
larg
ely
inef
fect
ive,
if it
's n
ot in
tegr
ated
and
co
uple
d w
ith:
coup
led
with
:
��m
anag
eria
l sen
sem
anag
eria
l sen
se-- m
akin
g ac
tiviti
es,
mak
ing
activ
ities
, ��
man
agin
g ris
k an
d un
cert
aint
y,
man
agin
g ris
k an
d un
cert
aint
y,
��pe
riod
ic r
evie
ws
of d
ecis
ion
peri
odic
rev
iew
s of
dec
isio
n-- m
akin
g as
sum
ptio
ns
mak
ing
assu
mpt
ion
s an
d m
enta
l mod
els,
and
men
tal m
odel
s,��
ongo
ing
stra
tegi
c th
inki
ng a
nd p
lann
ing,
on
goin
g st
rate
gic
thin
king
and
pla
nnin
g,
��fo
resi
ght
activ
ities
suc
h as
sce
nario
pla
nnin
g or
wild
car
d fo
resi
ght
activ
ities
suc
h as
sce
nario
pla
nnin
g or
wild
car
d ex
erci
ses
& c
onse
quen
ce e
xerc
ises
and
ex
erci
ses
& c
onse
quen
ce e
xerc
ises
and
��
polic
y de
velo
pmen
t po
licy
deve
lopm
ent
��al
ong
with
a h
ealth
y do
se o
f la
tera
l cre
ativ
e th
inki
ng.�
alon
g w
ith a
hea
lthy
dose
of
late
ral c
reat
ive
thin
king
.�
��W
alte
r D
erzk
oW
alte
r D
erzk
o
Men
tal M
odel
s, W
orld
view
s &
M
enta
l Mod
els,
Wor
ldvi
ews
&
Assu
mpt
ion
surf
acin
gAs
sum
ptio
n su
rfac
ing
��M
enta
l mod
els
can
be c
oaxe
d fr
om p
eopl
e M
enta
l mod
els
can
be c
oaxe
d fr
om p
eopl
e w
ith t
he r
ight
gui
delin
es &
too
lsw
ith t
he r
ight
gui
delin
es &
too
ls��
Assu
mpt
ion
surf
acin
g is
far
mor
e As
sum
ptio
n su
rfac
ing
is f
ar m
ore
trou
bles
ome
for
mos
t pe
ople
trou
bles
ome
for
mos
t pe
ople
��As
sum
ptio
ns a
re a
pro
blem
for
fut
uris
ts,
Assu
mpt
ions
are
a p
robl
em f
or f
utur
ists
, fo
resi
ght
prac
titio
ners
and
man
y an
alys
ts
fore
sigh
t pr
actit
ione
rs a
nd m
any
anal
ysts
fo
r nu
mer
ous
reas
ons*
. fo
r nu
mer
ous
reas
ons*
.
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
1) T
acit
natu
re o
f as
sum
ptio
ns*
1) T
acit
natu
re o
f as
sum
ptio
ns*
��M
ost
peop
le a
re o
bliv
ious
of
the
Mos
t pe
ople
are
obl
ivio
us o
f th
e as
sum
ptio
ns t
hat
they
car
ry in
the
ir he
ads
assu
mpt
ions
tha
t th
ey c
arry
in t
heir
head
s��
Oft
en a
ssum
ptio
ns a
re u
nspo
ken
&
Oft
en a
ssum
ptio
ns a
re u
nspo
ken
&
unex
amin
edun
exam
ined
��Th
ere
are
few
occ
asio
ns f
or u
s to
bec
ome
Ther
e ar
e fe
w o
ccas
ions
for
us
to b
ecom
e ex
plic
itly
awar
e of
our
tac
it be
liefs
expl
icitl
y aw
are
of o
ur t
acit
belie
fs
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
2) A
ssum
ptio
ns a
bout
ass
umpt
ions
*2)
Ass
umpt
ions
abo
ut a
ssum
ptio
ns*
��Th
e m
ost
fund
amen
tal a
nd t
here
fore
the
Th
e m
ost
fund
amen
tal a
nd t
here
fore
the
m
ost
deep
mos
t de
ep-- s
eate
d as
sum
ptio
ns a
re t
he
seat
ed a
ssum
ptio
ns a
re t
he
ones
tha
t ar
e ne
ver
spok
en, q
uest
ione
d or
on
es t
hat
are
neve
r sp
oken
, que
stio
ned
or
disc
usse
d, s
o�di
scus
sed,
so�
��If
we
assu
me
that
the
y ar
e un
iver
sal o
r If
we
assu
me
that
the
y ar
e un
iver
sal o
r ne
arly
so,
why
sho
uld
we
draw
the
n in
to
near
ly s
o, w
hy s
houl
d w
e dr
aw t
hen
into
th
e di
scus
sion
the
disc
ussi
on��
The
The
wdw
tfg�
sw
dwtf
g�s ?
(w
hat
do w
e ta
ke f
or
? (w
hat
do w
e ta
ke f
or
gran
ted?
)gr
ante
d?)
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
3) M
any
assu
mpt
ions
are
sup
pres
sed*
3) M
any
assu
mpt
ions
are
sup
pres
sed*
��M
any
assu
mpt
ions
are
or
wou
ld b
e se
en b
y M
any
assu
mpt
ions
are
or
wou
ld b
e se
en b
y m
any
to b
e an
tisoc
ial &
the
refo
re a
re
man
y to
be
antis
ocia
l & t
here
fore
are
su
ppre
ssed
, ign
ored
or
deni
ed.
supp
ress
ed, i
gnor
ed o
r de
nied
.��
For
exam
ple,
who
is p
ublic
ly g
oing
to
say:
For
exam
ple,
who
is p
ublic
ly g
oing
to
say:
�I h
ate
(��
.)�
or
�I h
ate
(��
.)�
or
�I t
hink
(�
�)
are
dum
b or
bac
kwar
d.�
or
�I t
hink
(�
�)
are
dum
b or
bac
kwar
d.�
or
�You
can
�t tr
ust
a (�
�.)
.��Y
ou c
an�t
trus
t a
(��
.) .�
��Ta
ints
you
r ou
tlook
on
scie
nce
& t
echn
olog
y Ta
ints
you
r ou
tlook
on
scie
nce
& t
echn
olog
y so
urce
sso
urce
s��
Cons
eque
ntly
, man
y se
rious
issu
es d
iscu
ssed
Co
nseq
uent
ly, m
any
serio
us is
sues
dis
cuss
ed
unde
r a
�man
tle o
f hy
pocr
isy.
�un
der
a �m
antle
of hy
pocr
isy.
�
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
4) M
any
assu
mpt
ions
cre
ated
ad
4) M
any
assu
mpt
ions
cre
ated
ad --
hoc*
hoc*
��M
any
assu
mpt
ions
are
man
ufac
ture
d ad
hoc
, M
any
assu
mpt
ions
are
man
ufac
ture
d ad
hoc
, �u
nder
the
pre
ss o
f ci
rcum
stan
ces�
& d
on�t
real
ly
�und
er t
he p
ress
of ci
rcum
stan
ces�
& d
on�t
real
ly
repr
esen
t an
y co
ntin
ued
deep
repr
esen
t an
y co
ntin
ued
deep
-- sea
ted
belie
f on
ly
seat
ed b
elie
f on
ly
ephe
mer
al o
pini
ons.
ep
hem
eral
opi
nion
s.
��W
hy d
o m
any
DW
hy d
o m
any
D-- M
s qu
ickl
y an
d un
equi
voca
lly
Ms
quic
kly
and
uneq
uivo
cally
di
smis
s ne
w t
echn
olog
ies?
dism
iss
new
tec
hnol
ogie
s?��
New
bus
ines
s co
ncep
ts, t
echn
olog
ies
or id
eas
ofte
n N
ew b
usin
ess
conc
epts
, tec
hnol
ogie
s or
idea
s of
ten
evok
e fo
r th
e fir
st t
ime,
eith
er
evok
e fo
r th
e fir
st t
ime,
eith
er la
tent
ass
umpt
ions
,la
tent
ass
umpt
ions
,w
hich
the
y w
ere
not
awar
e of
ear
lier
(cla
shw
hich
the
y w
ere
not
awar
e of
ear
lier
(cla
sh-- t
ensi
on)
tens
ion)
or
or
��
Den
ial;
Den
ial;
The
real
izat
ion
that
som
ethi
ng d
id n
ot f
eel
The
real
izat
ion
that
som
ethi
ng d
id n
ot f
eel
right
, �gu
t fe
el�.
The
y m
anuf
actu
red
ad h
oc
right
, �gu
t fe
el�.
The
y m
anuf
actu
red
ad h
oc
assu
mpt
ions
to
dism
iss
new
idea
s, c
once
pts
and
assu
mpt
ions
to
dism
iss
new
idea
s, c
once
pts
and
tech
nolo
gies
tech
nolo
gies
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
5)Res
earc
h ab
out
Assu
mpt
ions
& B
elie
fs*
5)Res
earc
h ab
out
Assu
mpt
ions
& B
elie
fs*
��Ps
ycho
logi
cal r
esea
rch
has
show
n th
at is
Ps
ycho
logi
cal r
esea
rch
has
show
n th
at is
m
ore
diff
icul
t fo
r a
pers
on t
o ch
ange
the
ir m
ore
diff
icul
t fo
r a
pers
on t
o ch
ange
the
ir m
ind
afte
r st
atin
g a
belie
f.m
ind
afte
r st
atin
g a
belie
f.��
Ther
efor
e on
e sh
ould
ten
d to
pla
y do
wn
Ther
efor
e on
e sh
ould
ten
d to
pla
y do
wn
assu
mpt
ions
and
ass
umpt
ion
assu
mpt
ions
and
ass
umpt
ion --
rela
ted
rela
ted
info
rmat
ion
until
dis
cuss
ion
loos
ens
up &
in
form
atio
n un
til d
iscu
ssio
n lo
osen
s up
&
befo
re p
ushi
ng a
nyon
e to
spe
ak o
ut.
befo
re p
ushi
ng a
nyon
e to
spe
ak o
ut.
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
6) B
ewar
e of
the
Hyp
e tr
ap*
6) B
ewar
e of
the
Hyp
e tr
ap*
��M
ost
inve
ntor
s, m
any
scie
ntis
ts a
nd a
lmos
t al
l M
ost
inve
ntor
s, m
any
scie
ntis
ts a
nd a
lmos
t al
l m
arke
ters
who
hav
e a
high
sta
ke in
new
&
mar
kete
rs w
ho h
ave
a hi
gh s
take
in n
ew &
ra
dica
lly d
iffer
ent
scie
nce,
tec
hnol
ogy
(pro
duct
s ra
dica
lly d
iffer
ent
scie
nce,
tec
hnol
ogy
(pro
duct
s or
ser
vice
s) o
ften
ado
pt a
ssum
ptio
ns t
o sa
tisfy
or
ser
vice
s) o
ften
ado
pt a
ssum
ptio
ns t
o sa
tisfy
or
just
ify t
heir
own
goal
s.or
just
ify t
heir
own
goal
s.��
This
lead
s to
one
of th
e m
ost
com
mon
err
ors
in
This
lead
s to
one
of th
e m
ost
com
mon
err
ors
in
fore
cast
ing:
ant
icip
atin
g th
at c
hang
e w
ill o
ccur
fo
reca
stin
g: a
ntic
ipat
ing
that
cha
nge
will
occ
ur
soon
er t
han
it ac
tual
ly d
oes
soon
er t
han
it ac
tual
ly d
oes
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
7) A
ssum
ptio
ns b
ut n
o m
etric
s*7)
Ass
umpt
ions
but
no
met
rics*
��M
any
larg
e or
gani
zatio
ns a
nd e
spec
ially
M
any
larg
e or
gani
zatio
ns a
nd e
spec
ially
go
vern
men
ts, o
pera
te s
o m
uch
on c
onse
nsus
go
vern
men
ts, o
pera
te s
o m
uch
on c
onse
nsus
an
d on
pol
itica
l acc
epta
bilit
y th
at t
he �
stat
ed�
and
on p
oliti
cal a
ccep
tabi
lity
that
the
�st
ated
� as
sum
ptio
ns b
ehin
d pr
ojec
ts a
nd p
rogr
ams
are
assu
mpt
ions
beh
ind
proj
ects
and
pro
gram
s ar
e of
ten:
ofte
n:��
too
mus
hyto
o m
ushy
��am
bigu
ous
ambi
guou
s ��
vagu
e or
vagu
e or
��si
mpl
y un
stat
ed
sim
ply
unst
ated
to b
e an
ythi
ng b
ut u
sele
ss o
r m
isle
adin
gto
be
anyt
hing
but
use
less
or
mis
lead
ing
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
8) �
Kill
the
mes
seng
er�
still
rea
l*8)
�Ki
ll th
e m
esse
nger
� st
ill r
eal*
��U
ntil
very
rec
ently
in c
orpo
ratio
ns a
nd g
ov�t
it
Unt
il ve
ry r
ecen
tly in
cor
pora
tions
and
gov
�t it
w
as c
omm
on t
o ki
ll th
e m
esse
nger
as
wel
l as
to
was
com
mon
to
kill
the
mes
seng
er a
s w
ell a
s to
de
ny t
he u
ncon
geni
al m
essa
ge.
deny
the
unc
onge
nial
mes
sage
.��
Chan
ging
: �lea
rnin
g ba
d ne
ws
earli
er is
bet
ter
Chan
ging
: �lea
rnin
g ba
d ne
ws
earli
er is
bet
ter
than
lear
ning
it t
oo la
te.�
than
lear
ning
it t
oo la
te.�
��Rea
l whe
n th
e ba
d ne
ws
chal
leng
es o
r Rea
l whe
n th
e ba
d ne
ws
chal
leng
es o
r co
ntra
dict
s w
idel
y re
cogn
ized
inst
itutio
nal
cont
radi
cts
wid
ely
reco
gniz
ed in
stitu
tiona
l as
sum
ptio
ns.
assu
mpt
ions
.��
Whi
stle
blow
ers
are
typi
cal v
ictim
s; f
ired,
dow
nW
hist
lebl
ower
s ar
e ty
pica
l vic
tims;
fire
d, d
own --
grad
ed, n
ot p
rom
oted
or
give
n us
eles
s w
ork
in
grad
ed, n
ot p
rom
oted
or
give
n us
eles
s w
ork
in
the
hope
tha
t th
ey w
ill r
efor
m o
r qu
ite
the
hope
tha
t th
ey w
ill r
efor
m o
r qu
ite
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
9) I
deol
ogy
a su
bstit
ute
for
soun
d 9)
Ide
olog
y a
subs
titut
e fo
r so
und
thin
king
*th
inki
ng*
��Id
eolo
gy is
oft
en a
sub
stitu
te for
sou
nd t
hink
ing
Ideo
logy
is o
ften
a s
ubst
itute
for
sou
nd t
hink
ing
��Id
eolo
gica
l ass
umpt
ions
get
mou
thed
as
if th
ey
Ideo
logi
cal a
ssum
ptio
ns g
et m
outh
ed a
s if
they
w
ere
eter
nal t
ruth
sw
ere
eter
nal t
ruth
s��
i.e. l
inka
ge b
etw
een
dem
ocra
cy a
nd e
ffec
tive
i.e. l
inka
ge b
etw
een
dem
ocra
cy a
nd e
ffec
tive
free
mar
ket
free
mar
ket
��Li
nkag
e be
twee
n in
nova
tion
and
com
petit
ive
Link
age
betw
een
inno
vatio
n an
d co
mpe
titiv
e ad
vant
age
(mos
t Cd
n fir
ms
aren
�t in
nova
tive
yet
adva
ntag
e (m
ost
Cdn
firm
s ar
en�t
inno
vativ
e ye
t th
ey s
urvi
ve)
they
sur
vive
)��
Usu
ally
pai
red
like
Siam
ese
twin
s U
sual
ly p
aire
d lik
e Si
ames
e tw
ins
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
10)
Mos
t so
cial
& c
ultu
ral i
sola
tion
10)
Mos
t so
cial
& c
ultu
ral i
sola
tion
at t
he t
op*
at t
he t
op*
��At
the
sr.
ran
ks o
f m
ost
inst
itutio
ns w
e of
ten
At t
he s
r. r
anks
of m
ost
inst
itutio
ns w
e of
ten
find
the
mos
t cu
ltura
l and
soc
ial i
sola
tion
find
the
mos
t cu
ltura
l and
soc
ial i
sola
tion
��M
iddl
e le
vel a
nd c
usto
mer
Mid
dle
leve
l and
cus
tom
er-- f
ocus
ed s
taff
inte
ract
fo
cuse
d st
aff
inte
ract
w
ith t
he o
utsi
de w
orld
, not
the
top
peo
ple
with
the
out
side
wor
ld, n
ot t
he t
op p
eopl
e��
Mos
t in
stitu
tions
act
unc
onsc
ious
ly t
o sq
ueez
e M
ost
inst
itutio
ns a
ct u
ncon
scio
usly
to
sque
eze
out
diss
iden
ts, p
eopl
e w
ho d
o no
t ag
ree
with
the
ou
t di
ssid
ents
, peo
ple
who
do
not
agre
e w
ith t
he
orga
niza
tion�
s am
bian
ce o
r cu
lture
.or
gani
zatio
n�s
ambi
ance
or
cultu
re.
��Th
ose
that
mov
e up
bec
ome
clon
es o
f th
e Th
ose
that
mov
e up
bec
ome
clon
es o
f th
e pe
ople
at
the
top.
Tho
se c
lone
s ho
mog
enou
s in
pe
ople
at
the
top.
Tho
se c
lone
s ho
mog
enou
s in
th
eir
belie
fs, r
einf
orce
rat
her
than
cha
lleng
e th
eir
belie
fs, r
einf
orce
rat
her
than
cha
lleng
e un
exam
ined
bel
iefs
unex
amin
ed b
elie
fs
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
10)
Mos
t so
cial
& c
ultu
ral i
sola
tion
10)
Mos
t so
cial
& c
ultu
ral i
sola
tion
at t
he t
op*
(con
t)at
the
top
* (c
ont)
��It
too
k U
S au
to in
dust
ry e
xecs
alm
ost
20 y
ears
It
too
k U
S au
to in
dust
ry e
xecs
alm
ost
20 y
ears
to
rea
lize
that
the
Am
eric
an p
ublic
was
larg
ely
to r
ealiz
e th
at t
he A
mer
ican
pub
lic w
as la
rgel
y m
ovin
g aw
ay f
rom
car
s as
sta
tus
sym
bols
to
mov
ing
away
fro
m c
ars
as s
tatu
s sy
mbo
ls t
o ca
rs a
s m
ere
tran
spor
tatio
n. (
chan
ging
val
ues
cars
as
mer
e tr
ansp
orta
tion.
(ch
angi
ng v
alue
s an
d ex
pect
atio
ns)
and
expe
ctat
ions
)��
That
intr
ansi
genc
e ga
ve a
way
a b
ig s
hare
of
That
intr
ansi
genc
e ga
ve a
way
a b
ig s
hare
of
busi
ness
to
the
Japa
nese
.bu
sine
ss t
o th
e Ja
pane
se.
��In
tel c
augh
t sl
eepi
ng f
rom
the
ons
laug
ht o
f In
tel c
augh
t sl
eepi
ng f
rom
the
ons
laug
ht o
f As
ian
mem
ory
chip
com
petit
ion
Asia
n m
emor
y ch
ip c
ompe
titio
n��
Gov
�ts t
radi
tiona
lly r
eact
ive
=>
cha
ngin
gG
ov�ts
tra
ditio
nally
rea
ctiv
e =
> c
hang
ing
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
11)
Don
�t go
far
eno
ugh*
11)
Don
�t go
far
eno
ugh*
��Al
l to
ofte
n, t
hose
who
cha
lleng
e Al
l to
ofte
n, t
hose
who
cha
lleng
e as
sum
ptio
ns, ha
ve o
nly
a ch
alle
nge
and
assu
mpt
ions
, ha
ve o
nly
a ch
alle
nge
and
do n
ot c
ome
forw
ard
with
alte
rnat
e do
not
com
e fo
rwar
d w
ith a
ltern
ate
assu
mpt
ions
assu
mpt
ions
��Vi
ctim
of
myo
pia;
dic
hoto
mou
s th
inki
ng o
r Vi
ctim
of
myo
pia;
dic
hoto
mou
s th
inki
ng o
r di
chot
omy;
2 s
ides
vs
3 or
mor
e si
des
dich
otom
y; 2
sid
es v
s 3
or m
ore
side
s��
i.e. P
ACT
ener
gy w
orks
hop
i.e. P
ACT
ener
gy w
orks
hop
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
12. Fa
lse
assu
mpt
ions
*12
. Fa
lse
assu
mpt
ions
*
��Pe
ople
kno
win
gly
put
fort
h fa
lse
Peop
le k
now
ingl
y pu
t fo
rth
fals
e as
sum
ptio
ns b
ecau
se t
hey
have
hig
h as
sum
ptio
ns b
ecau
se t
hey
have
hig
h pr
opag
anda
val
ue, i
n w
ar t
he e
nem
y ge
ts
prop
agan
da v
alue
, in
war
the
ene
my
gets
de
mon
ized
, ste
reot
yped
and
fal
sely
de
mon
ized
, ste
reot
yped
and
fal
sely
ch
arge
dch
arge
d��
Ster
eoty
pes
get
carr
ied
over
into
oth
er
Ster
eoty
pes
get
carr
ied
over
into
oth
er
part
s of
cul
ture
& s
ocie
ty.
part
s of
cul
ture
& s
ocie
ty.
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
13)
Dis
cont
inui
ties*
13)
Dis
cont
inui
ties*
��It
�s h
ard
for
mos
t pe
ople
to
antic
ipat
e &
It
�s h
ard
for
mos
t pe
ople
to
antic
ipat
e &
en
visi
on d
isco
ntin
uitie
s, t
here
fore
diff
icul
t en
visi
on d
isco
ntin
uitie
s, t
here
fore
diff
icul
t to
for
m n
ew a
ssum
ptio
ns.
to f
orm
new
ass
umpt
ions
.
��Ie
. Sup
erIe
. Sup
er-- d
roug
hts
scen
ario
sdr
ough
ts s
cena
rios
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
14)
Igno
ranc
e*14
) Ig
nora
nce*
��Ig
nora
nce
is o
ften
a f
acto
r in
som
e fa
lse
assu
mpt
ions
Igno
ranc
e is
oft
en a
fac
tor
in s
ome
fals
e as
sum
ptio
ns��
Igno
ranc
e of
ten
com
es f
rom
bei
ng u
naw
are
of n
ew
Igno
ranc
e of
ten
com
es f
rom
bei
ng u
naw
are
of n
ew
know
ledg
e or
dis
cove
ries
know
ledg
e or
dis
cove
ries
��O
ne ju
dge
was
com
men
ting
on h
is s
ente
ncin
g, r
elat
ing
One
judg
e w
as c
omm
entin
g on
his
sen
tenc
ing,
rel
atin
g th
eft
to t
he a
ccus
ed� m
oral
upb
ringi
ng, u
naw
are
that
th
eft
to t
he a
ccus
ed� m
oral
upb
ringi
ng, u
naw
are
that
br
ain
rese
arch
ers
had
show
n a
deca
de e
arlie
r th
at
brai
n re
sear
cher
s ha
d sh
own
a de
cade
ear
lier
that
kl
epto
man
ia is
due
to
a br
ain
lesi
on a
ssoc
iate
d w
ith a
kl
epto
man
ia is
due
to
a br
ain
lesi
on a
ssoc
iate
d w
ith a
sp
ecifi
c sp
ot o
n th
e br
ain
adja
cent
to
the
spot
link
ed
spec
ific
spot
on
the
brai
n ad
jace
nt t
o th
e sp
ot li
nked
w
ith o
bses
sive
with
obs
essi
ve-- c
ompu
lsiv
e be
havi
or.
com
puls
ive
beha
vior
.��
The
judg
e, o
ut o
f ig
nora
nce,
per
petu
ated
the
fal
se
The
judg
e, o
ut o
f ig
nora
nce,
per
petu
ated
the
fal
se
assu
mpt
ion
that
kle
ptom
ania
is p
rimar
ily a
mor
al/s
ocie
tal
assu
mpt
ion
that
kle
ptom
ania
is p
rimar
ily a
mor
al/s
ocie
tal
defe
ctde
fect
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
15)
Cont
inui
ty a
s th
e no
rm*
15)
Cont
inui
ty a
s th
e no
rm*
��M
ost
of u
s liv
e in
a w
orld
in w
hich
M
ost
of u
s liv
e in
a w
orld
in w
hich
co
ntin
uity
is t
he n
orm
, th
e do
min
ant
cont
inui
ty is
the
nor
m, th
e do
min
ant
them
e in
our
live
s.
them
e in
our
live
s.
��D
aily
rou
tine,
wee
kly
rout
ine,
yea
rly
Dai
ly r
outin
e, w
eekl
y ro
utin
e, y
early
ro
utin
e, b
usin
ess
cycl
ero
utin
e, b
usin
ess
cycl
e��
Anyt
hing
tha
t di
srup
ts t
his
is f
orei
gnAn
ythi
ng t
hat
disr
upts
thi
s is
for
eign
* Ba
sed
on f
ram
ewor
k &
pap
er b
y Jo
seph
Coa
tes
1999
Assu
mpt
ion
Assu
mpt
ion
�� Sci
ence
and
Tec
hnol
ogy
(S&
T) s
cann
ing
as a
sta
nd a
lone
Sc
ienc
e an
d Te
chno
logy
(S&
T) s
cann
ing
as a
sta
nd a
lone
ac
tivity
is a
larg
ely
inef
fect
ive,
if it
's n
ot in
tegr
ated
and
ac
tivity
is a
larg
ely
inef
fect
ive,
if it
's n
ot in
tegr
ated
and
co
uple
d w
ith:
coup
led
with
:
��m
anag
eria
l sen
sem
anag
eria
l sen
se-- m
akin
g ac
tiviti
es,
mak
ing
activ
ities
, ��
man
agin
g ris
k an
d un
cert
aint
y,m
anag
ing
risk
and
unce
rtai
nty,
��pe
riodi
c re
view
s of
dec
isio
npe
riodi
c re
view
s of
dec
isio
n --m
akin
g as
sum
ptio
ns a
nd
mak
ing
assu
mpt
ions
and
m
enta
l mod
els,
m
enta
l mod
els,
��
ongo
ing
stra
tegi
c th
inki
ng a
nd p
lann
ing,
on
goin
g st
rate
gic
thin
king
and
pla
nnin
g,
��fo
resi
ght
activ
ities
suc
h as
sce
nario
pla
nnin
g or
wild
car
d fo
resi
ght
activ
ities
suc
h as
sce
nario
pla
nnin
g or
wild
car
d ex
erci
ses
& c
onse
quen
ce e
xerc
ises
and
ex
erci
ses
& c
onse
quen
ce e
xerc
ises
and
��
polic
y de
velo
pmen
t po
licy
deve
lopm
ent
��al
ong
with
a h
ealth
dos
e of
late
ral c
reat
ive
thin
king
.�al
ong
with
a h
ealth
dos
e of
late
ral c
reat
ive
thin
king
.�
��W
alte
r D
erzk
oW
alte
r D
erzk
o
This
pho
togr
aph
was
tak
en b
y a
NAS
A sa
telli
te o
ver
a 24
hou
r tim
e sp
an, s
o as
to
capt
ure
the
view
of
eart
h at
nig
ht f
rom
spa
ce in
eve
ry t
ime
zone
. It
sho
ws
quite
dr
amat
ical
ly t
he g
loba
l spr
ead
of in
dust
rializ
atio
n, a
s ev
iden
ced
by t
he li
ghts
of
hum
an c
ivili
zatio
n.
Not
e th
e N
ile R
iver
del
ta, t
he S
iber
ian
Expr
ess
railw
ay r
oute
, th
e Au
stra
lian
coas
tal c
ities
, an
d Af
rica,
lite
rally
"th
e da
rk c
ontin
ent"
.
Mas
hM
ash --
ups
ups
Mas
hM
ash --
ups
ups
Mas
hM
ash --
ups
ups
Wha
t�s in
the
Fut
ure?
Wha
t�s in
the
Fut
ure?
Perv
asiv
e, u
biqu
itous
com
putin
gPe
rvas
ive,
ubi
quito
us c
ompu
ting
��Th
e In
visi
ble
Assi
stan
t; A
cel
l bio
logy
lab
The
Invi
sibl
e As
sist
ant;
A c
ell b
iolo
gy la
b pu
ts u
biqu
itous
com
putin
g te
chno
logy
to
the
puts
ubi
quito
us c
ompu
ting
tech
nolo
gy t
o th
e te
st.
test
.��
Gae
tano
Bor
riello
, Uni
vers
ity o
f W
ashi
ngto
nG
aeta
no B
orrie
llo, U
nive
rsity
of
Was
hing
ton
��H
CI;
Vol.
4, N
o. 6
H
CI;
Vol.
4, N
o. 6
--Ju
ly/A
ugus
t 20
06Ju
ly/A
ugus
t 20
06��
http
://a
cmqu
eue.
com
/mod
ules
.php
?nam
e=C
http
://a
cmqu
eue.
com
/mod
ules
.php
?nam
e=C
onte
nt&
pa=
show
page
&pi
d=40
7on
tent
&pa
=sh
owpa
ge&
pid=
407
ZOP
A?
Lend
ing
aLe
ndin
g a
borr
owin
gbo
rrow
ing
exch
ange
exch
ange
Ano
mal
ies,
Par
adox
es,
Con
tradi
ctio
ns,
Dis
parit
ies,
In
cons
iste
ncie
s
Hol
y G
rail
?
Key
Idea
Con
cept
Wha
t doe
s it
Dis
plac
e?
Obs
oles
ce?
Leav
e be
hind
?
Wha
t get
s En
hanc
ed?
Wha
t get
s R
etrie
ved?
Tech
nolo
gy D
ashb
oard
Whe
re a
re w
e he
adin
g?
Met
rics
Now
Gen
erat
ion
N+1
Incr
emen
tal
Impr
ovem
ents
Late
ral
Con
cept
C
halle
nges
2 C
onse
quen
ces
Prom
ises
? P
erils
?
Exp
erts
:
Dis
rupt
ive
Inno
vatio
ns
At t
he E
xtre
me
Wha
t Flip
s?
Rev
erse
s(+
)(--
)
Wor
ld V
iew
?
Ass
umpt
ions
W
DW
TFG
Wire
d: T
ired:
Exp
ired
Big
que
stio
ns o
f our
tim
e?
Wha
t don
�t w
e kn
ow?
Wha
t can
�t w
e do
?
W
hat c
an w
e se
e fro
m a
ne
w p
ersp
ectiv
e?
Sour
ce:
Smar
tEco
nom
yw
orks
hop
on A
dvan
ced
Scan
ning
Met
hods
Swis
scom
Tec
hnol
ogy
Roa
dmap
Swis
scom
Tec
hnol
ogy
Roa
dmap
Assu
mpt
ion
Assu
mpt
ion
�� Sci
ence
and
Tec
hnol
ogy
(S&
T) s
cann
ing
as a
sta
nd a
lone
Sc
ienc
e an
d Te
chno
logy
(S&
T) s
cann
ing
as a
sta
nd a
lone
ac
tivity
is a
larg
ely
inef
fect
ive,
if it
's n
ot in
tegr
ated
and
ac
tivity
is a
larg
ely
inef
fect
ive,
if it
's n
ot in
tegr
ated
and
co
uple
d w
ith:
coup
led
with
:
��m
anag
eria
l sen
sem
anag
eria
l sen
se-- m
akin
g ac
tiviti
es,
mak
ing
activ
ities
, ��
man
agin
g ris
k an
d un
cert
aint
y,
man
agin
g ris
k an
d un
cert
aint
y,
��pe
riodi
c re
view
s of
dec
isio
npe
riodi
c re
view
s of
dec
isio
n --m
akin
g as
sum
ptio
ns a
nd
mak
ing
assu
mpt
ions
and
m
enta
l mod
els,
m
enta
l mod
els,
��
ongo
ing
stra
tegi
c th
inki
ng a
nd p
lann
ing,
on
goin
g st
rate
gic
thin
king
and
pla
nnin
g,
��fo
resi
ght
acti
viti
es s
uch
as
scen
ario
pla
nn
ing
or
fore
sigh
t ac
tivi
ties
su
ch a
s sc
enar
io p
lan
nin
g or
w
ild c
ard
exer
cise
s &
con
sequ
ence
exe
rcis
es a
nd
wild
car
d ex
erci
ses
& c
onse
quen
ce e
xerc
ises
an
d��
polic
y de
velo
pmen
t po
licy
deve
lopm
ent
��al
ong
with
a h
ealth
y do
se o
f la
tera
l cre
ativ
e th
inki
ng.�
alon
g w
ith a
hea
lthy
dose
of
late
ral c
reat
ive
thin
king
.�
��W
alte
r D
erzk
oW
alte
r D
erzk
o
Jun
e 1
2, 2
00
6To
p 1
00
eco
logi
cal q
ues
tion
s fr
om U
K p
olic
y m
aker
s
It's
oft
en g
ood
to s
it ba
ck,
paus
e an
d co
ntem
plat
e w
hat
you
know
that
you
don
't kn
ow...
a hi
gher
ord
er t
hink
ing
exer
cise
for
sur
e !
Last
wee
k, e
nvi
ron
men
tal p
olic
y m
aker
sca
me
up
wit
h a
list
of
the
"top
10
0"
ecol
ogic
al q
ues
tion
s m
ost
in n
eed
of a
n a
nsw
er.
The
list,
pub
lishe
d on
line
in t
he B
ritis
h Ec
olog
ical
Soc
iety
's J
ourn
al o
f Ap
plie
d Ec
olog
y, is
th
e re
sult
of a
n in
nova
tive
expe
rimen
t in
volv
ing
mor
e th
an 6
00 e
nviro
nmen
tal p
olic
y m
aker
s an
d ac
adem
ics,
and
incl
udes
cru
cial
que
stio
ns s
uch
as w
hich
UK
habi
tats
and
sp
ecie
s m
ight
be
lost
com
plet
ely
due
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per
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rem
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ods
drou
ghts
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he p
ast
as a
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mal
par
t of
long
ter
m c
limat
e in
the
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t as
a n
orm
al p
art
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l with
out
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utur
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Q?
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Whe
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tter
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Scen
ario
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ario
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ild C
ards
��Se
arch
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iva
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ee r
ings
and
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ings
and
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)?
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sing
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avid
Bon
in a
nd D
onal
d Bu
rn s
how
ed t
hat
a pa
rtic
ular
ly
Dav
id B
onin
and
Don
ald
Burn
sho
wed
tha
t a
part
icul
arly
se
vere
dro
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roug
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as li
kely
in
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like
ly in
Alb
erta
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thab
aska
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erAl
bert
a's
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bask
a Riv
erba
sin
ever
y ba
sin
ever
y 10
0 ye
ars
100
year
sra
ther
tha
n ev
ery
400
year
s as
ra
ther
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n ev
ery
400
year
s as
su
gges
ted
by t
he s
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este
d by
the
sho
rt-- t
erm
rec
ords
fro
m s
trea
m
term
rec
ords
fro
m s
trea
m
gaug
es.�
ga
uges
.�
��Cu
t do
wn
a tr
ee,
disc
over
the
nex
t bi
g dr
ough
t,
Cut
dow
n a
tree
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scov
er t
he n
ext
big
drou
ght,
To
ront
o St
ar;
11 F
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2006
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11 F
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Scen
ario
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d W
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ards
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ario
s an
d W
ild C
ards
���w
orld
's lo
nges
t re
cord
of
El N
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activ
ity f
rom
tre
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gs
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ld's
long
est
reco
rd o
f El
Nin
o ac
tivity
fro
m t
ree
rings
a
cont
inuo
us p
ictu
re o
f th
e pa
st 3
722
year
s.�
a co
ntin
uous
pic
ture
of
the
past
372
2 ye
ars.
���
A sp
ot o
f tim
e tr
avel
fin
ds a
gol
den
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lt;
A sp
ot o
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avel
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gol
den
resu
lt;
Sydn
ey M
orni
ng H
eral
d; 1
Feb
ruar
y 20
07Sy
dney
Mor
ning
Her
ald;
1 F
ebru
ary
2007
���b
etw
een
562
and
594
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pre
cipi
tatio
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oppe
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wee
n 56
2 an
d 59
4 B.
C. p
reci
pita
tion
drop
ped
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r ce
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oche
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r ce
nt a
nd t
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oche
per
ishe
d���
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und
950
A.D
. a d
roug
ht s
et in
on
the
Altip
lano
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roun
d 95
0 A.
D. a
dro
ught
set
in o
n th
e Al
tipla
no
Plat
eau
& a
nnih
ilate
d th
e Ti
wan
aku�
Plat
eau
& a
nnih
ilate
d th
e Ti
wan
aku�
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imat
e ch
ange
dec
imat
ed p
reCl
imat
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ange
dec
imat
ed p
re-- I
ncan
civ
iliza
tions
; In
can
civi
lizat
ions
; Ca
lgar
y H
eral
d; M
arch
18,
200
7Ca
lgar
y H
eral
d; M
arch
18,
200
7
Six
Six --
deca
dede
cade
-- lon
g dr
ough
t lo
ng d
roug
ht
from
111
8 to
117
9fr
om 1
118
to 1
179
���A
n ep
ic d
roug
ht d
urin
g th
e m
id�A
n ep
ic d
roug
ht d
urin
g th
e m
id-- 1
100s
dw
arfs
any
11
00s
dwar
fs a
ny
drou
ght
prev
ious
ly d
ocum
ente
d fo
r a
regi
on t
hat
drou
ght
prev
ious
ly d
ocum
ente
d fo
r a
regi
on t
hat
incl
udes
are
as o
f Ar
izon
a, C
olor
ado,
New
Mex
ico,
Uta
h in
clud
es a
reas
of
Ariz
ona,
Col
orad
o, N
ew M
exic
o, U
tah
and
Wyo
min
g.�
and
Wyo
min
g.�
���T
he s
ix�T
he s
ix-- d
ecad
ede
cade
-- lon
g dr
ough
t w
as r
emar
kabl
e fo
r th
e lo
ng d
roug
ht w
as r
emar
kabl
e fo
r th
e ab
senc
e of
ver
y w
et y
ears
. At
the
core
of
the
drou
ght
abse
nce
of v
ery
wet
yea
rs. A
t th
e co
re o
f th
e dr
ough
t w
as a
per
iod
of 2
5 ye
ars
in w
hich
Col
orad
o Riv
er f
low
w
as a
per
iod
of 2
5 ye
ars
in w
hich
Col
orad
o Riv
er f
low
av
erag
ed 1
5 pe
rcen
t be
low
nor
mal
.�av
erag
ed 1
5 pe
rcen
t be
low
nor
mal
.�
��Tr
ee r
ings
rev
eal m
assi
ve 1
2th
Tree
rin
gs r
evea
l mas
sive
12t
h --ce
ntur
y dr
ough
t;ce
ntur
y dr
ough
t;U
niv
of A
rizon
a 20
07U
niv
of A
rizon
a 20
07
�Uta
h is
in f
or lo
nger
�U
tah
is in
for
long
er -
---an
d w
orse
an
d w
orse
dr
ough
ts�
drou
ghts
�
���U
tah
is in
for
long
er
�Uta
h is
in f
or lo
nger
----
and
wor
se
and
wor
se -
---dr
ough
ts, p
redi
cts
a ne
w s
cien
tific
dr
ough
ts, p
redi
cts
a ne
w s
cien
tific
re
port
.�re
port
.���
�dro
ught
s 10
.9 y
ears
in le
ngth
ove
r �d
roug
hts
10.9
yea
rs in
leng
th o
ver
1,90
0 ye
ars
vs a
vera
ge d
roug
ht d
urat
ion
1,90
0 ye
ars
vs a
vera
ge d
roug
ht d
urat
ion
of 6
.8 y
ears
dur
ing
the
last
111
yea
rs o
f of
6.8
yea
rs d
urin
g th
e la
st 1
11 y
ears
of
inst
rum
enta
l rec
ord.
�in
stru
men
tal r
ecor
d.�
-- Wor
se d
roug
hts
ahea
d?
Wor
se d
roug
hts
ahea
d?
Des
ert M
orni
ng N
ews
Des
ert M
orni
ng N
ews ::
April
200
7Ap
ril 2
007
Anom
alie
sAn
omal
ies
��Af
ter
wat
chin
g Li
ve E
arth
=
Afte
r w
atch
ing
Live
Ear
th=
one
foc
used
on
e fo
cuse
d m
essa
ge;
mes
sage
;M
an r
espo
nsib
le f
or c
limat
e M
an r
espo
nsib
le f
or c
limat
e ch
ange
; ig
norin
g th
e 95
%/5
% r
atio
ch
ange
; ig
norin
g th
e 95
%/5
% r
atio
���S
ome
clim
atol
ogis
ts p
lus
atm
osph
eric
phy
sici
sts
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e cl
imat
olog
ists
plu
s at
mos
pher
ic p
hysi
cist
s an
d pa
leoc
limat
olog
ist
are
in a
gree
men
t th
at
and
pale
oclim
atol
ogis
t ar
e in
agr
eem
ent
that
sun
su
n sp
ots
and
sola
r fla
res
spot
s an
d so
lar
flare
sar
e to
bla
me
for
clim
ate
are
to b
lam
e fo
r cl
imat
e ch
ange
.�ch
ange
.���
--�D
ebun
king
myt
h of
glo
bal w
arm
ing�
�D
ebun
king
myt
h of
glo
bal w
arm
ing�
N
orth
ern
Min
er F
eb 2
007
Nor
ther
n M
iner
Feb
200
7
Ausi
e m
eteo
rolo
gist
Ini
go J
ones
Au
sie
met
eoro
logi
st I
nigo
Jon
es
(187
2(1
872 --
1954
)19
54)
���T
hese
pre
sent
day
clim
atol
ogis
ts c
anno
t ta
ke t
he c
redi
t �T
hese
pre
sent
day
clim
atol
ogis
ts c
anno
t ta
ke t
he c
redi
t fo
r be
ing
the
first
to
say
that
the
Sun
was
res
pons
ible
for
fo
r be
ing
the
first
to
say
that
the
Sun
was
res
pons
ible
for
w
eath
er c
hang
e be
caus
e in
w
eath
er c
hang
e be
caus
e in
189
418
94an
Aus
tral
ian
nam
ed
an A
ustr
alia
n na
med
In
igo
Jone
sIn
igo
Jone
s(1
872
(187
2 --19
54)
who
was
a m
eteo
rolo
gist
at
his
1954
) w
ho w
as a
met
eoro
logi
st a
t hi
s Cr
oham
hurs
t O
bser
vato
ry n
ear
Bris
bane
and
was
late
r Cr
oham
hurs
t O
bser
vato
ry n
ear
Bris
bane
and
was
late
r fa
mou
s fo
r hi
s lo
ng r
ange
wea
ther
for
ecas
ts p
ut f
orth
fa
mou
s fo
r hi
s lo
ng r
ange
wea
ther
for
ecas
ts p
ut f
orth
th
is t
heor
y in
189
4.�
this
the
ory
in 1
894.
�
���J
ones
ref
ined
and
upd
ated
the
the
orie
s of
tw
o ot
her
�Jon
es r
efin
ed a
nd u
pdat
ed t
he t
heor
ies
of t
wo
othe
r pi
onee
rs in
thi
s fie
ld, E
Bru
ckne
r an
d C
L W
ragg
e.�
pion
eers
in t
his
field
, E B
ruck
ner
and
C L
Wra
gge.
�
���J
ones
sai
d w
eath
er c
ame
in c
ycle
s de
pend
ing
on s
olar
�J
ones
sai
d w
eath
er c
ame
in c
ycle
s de
pend
ing
on s
olar
ac
tivity
and
the
mov
emen
t of
pla
nets
.�
activ
ity a
nd t
he m
ovem
ent
of p
lane
ts.�
Ausi
e m
eteo
rolo
gist
Ini
go J
ones
Au
sie
met
eoro
logi
st I
nigo
Jon
es
(187
2(1
872 --
1954
)19
54)
���J
ones
cor
rect
ly f
orec
aste
d th
e br
eaki
ng o
f th
e �J
ones
cor
rect
ly f
orec
aste
d th
e br
eaki
ng o
f th
e 19
53 d
roug
ht a
nd t
he g
reat
Bur
deki
n Riv
er f
lood
19
53 d
roug
ht a
nd t
he g
reat
Bur
deki
n Riv
er f
lood
at
Ayr
plu
s m
any
othe
r co
rrec
t pr
edic
tions
tha
t at
Ayr
plu
s m
any
othe
r co
rrec
t pr
edic
tions
tha
t he
mad
e.�
he m
ade.
�
���B
ut b
ecau
se h
is t
heor
ies
wer
e ne
w s
ome
�But
bec
ause
his
the
orie
s w
ere
new
som
e pe
ople
cal
led
him
a c
rank
but
far
mer
s an
d pe
ople
cal
led
him
a c
rank
but
far
mer
s an
d gr
azie
rs s
wor
e by
his
pre
dict
ions
as
did
the
graz
iers
sw
ore
by h
is p
redi
ctio
ns a
s di
d th
e Q
ueen
slan
d G
over
nmen
t.�
Que
ensl
and
Gov
ernm
ent.
�
Ausi
e m
eteo
rolo
gist
Ini
go J
ones
Au
sie
met
eoro
logi
st I
nigo
Jon
es
(187
2(1
872 --
1954
)19
54)
���J
ones
the
oriz
ed t
hat
the
four
maj
or p
lane
ts p
assi
ng in
�J
ones
the
oriz
ed t
hat
the
four
maj
or p
lane
ts p
assi
ng in
fr
ont
and
behi
nd t
he S
un s
witc
hed
on a
nd o
ff a
cur
rent
fr
ont
and
behi
nd t
he S
un s
witc
hed
on a
nd o
ff a
cur
rent
of
ele
ctro
of e
lect
ro-- m
agne
tism
whi
ch t
he S
un d
rew
fro
m a
m
agne
tism
whi
ch t
he S
un d
rew
fro
m a
co
loss
al m
agne
tic f
ield
, pro
babl
y fr
om t
he m
ilky
way
co
loss
al m
agne
tic f
ield
, pro
babl
y fr
om t
he m
ilky
way
w
ith it
s va
st c
once
ntra
tion
of s
tars
.�
with
its
vast
con
cent
ratio
n of
sta
rs.�
���W
hen
the
four
maj
or p
lant
s pa
ssed
bet
wee
n th
e Su
n �W
hen
the
four
maj
or p
lant
s pa
ssed
bet
wee
n th
e Su
n an
d th
e m
ilky
way
, th
e Su
n's
activ
ity w
as r
elat
ivel
y ca
lm
and
the
milk
y w
ay, th
e Su
n's
activ
ity w
as r
elat
ivel
y ca
lm
but�
bu
t�
���
whe
n th
e fo
ur m
ajor
pla
nets
pas
sed
behi
nd t
he S
un
�w
hen
the
four
maj
or p
lane
ts p
asse
d be
hind
the
Sun
th
en t
he S
un w
as le
ft e
xpos
ed a
nd g
ot t
he f
ull c
harg
e th
en t
he S
un w
as le
ft e
xpos
ed a
nd g
ot t
he f
ull c
harg
e fr
om t
he m
agne
tic f
ield
, cau
sing
the
Sun
to
beco
me
from
the
mag
netic
fie
ld, c
ausi
ng t
he S
un t
o be
com
e ov
erch
arge
d w
ith e
lect
ricity
.�ov
erch
arge
d w
ith e
lect
ricity
.�
The
Jone
s 50
yea
r dr
ough
t fo
reca
st?
The
Jone
s 50
yea
r dr
ough
t fo
reca
st?
��By
kno
win
g w
hen
the
plan
ets
in t
heir
vario
us
By k
now
ing
whe
n th
e pl
anet
s in
the
ir va
rious
co
mbi
natio
ns a
ffec
ted
or in
terf
ered
with
the
sol
ar s
yste
m
com
bina
tions
aff
ecte
d or
inte
rfer
ed w
ith t
he s
olar
sys
tem
an
d by
che
ckin
g w
ith p
ast
reco
rds
Jone
s be
lieve
d he
an
d by
che
ckin
g w
ith p
ast
reco
rds
Jone
s be
lieve
d he
co
uld
prov
e th
e w
eath
er c
ame
in c
ycle
s of
up
to
coul
d pr
ove
the
wea
ther
cam
e in
cyc
les
of u
p to
165
16
5 ye
ars
apar
t.ye
ars
apar
t.
��Jo
nes,
in o
ne f
orec
ast
he m
ade
in
Jone
s, in
one
for
ecas
t he
mad
e in
195
0,sa
id t
hat
near
sa
id t
hat
near
th
e ye
ar
the
year
200
020
00th
ere
wou
ld b
e a
disa
stro
us d
roug
ht
ther
e w
ould
be
a di
sast
rous
dro
ught
be
caus
e th
e sa
me
plan
ets
that
gav
e Au
stra
lia h
er w
orst
be
caus
e th
e sa
me
plan
ets
that
gav
e Au
stra
lia h
er w
orst
dr
ough
t in
190
2 w
ould
be
in t
he s
ame
posi
tion
to c
ause
dr
ough
t in
190
2 w
ould
be
in t
he s
ame
posi
tion
to c
ause
it
agai
n.
it ag
ain.
Inig
o Jo
nes
Scen
ario
Inig
o Jo
nes
Scen
ario
��Ar
e yo
u w
ith m
e ?
Are
you
with
me
?��
Wha
t if?
Wha
t if?
��Yo
u ta
ke t
he J
ones
met
hodo
logy
, reg
ardl
ess
of s
cien
tific
Yo
u ta
ke t
he J
ones
met
hodo
logy
, reg
ardl
ess
of s
cien
tific
va
lidity
and
pro
ject
out
to
the
next
�su
per
drou
ght�
va
lidity
and
pro
ject
out
to
the
next
�su
per
drou
ght�
��Co
mbi
ne t
hat
with
the
pot
entia
l thr
eat
of r
ust
blig
ht t
hat
Com
bine
tha
t w
ith t
he p
oten
tial t
hrea
t of
rus
t bl
ight
tha
t co
uld
wip
e ou
t Ca
nadi
an w
heat
cro
ps (
coul
d w
ipe
out
Cana
dian
whe
at c
rops
(U
g99,
a v
irule
nt
stra
in o
f bl
ack
stem
rus
t fu
ngus
(Pu
ccin
iagr
amin
is),
di
scov
ered
in U
gand
a in
199
9.
��Ad
d Pi
ne B
eatle
s th
at c
ould
dec
imat
e ev
en m
ore
tree
sAd
d Pi
ne B
eatle
s th
at c
ould
dec
imat
e ev
en m
ore
tree
s
��D
roug
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will
cut
pow
er o
utpu
t in
hyd
ro d
ams
Dro
ught
s w
ill c
ut p
ower
out
put
in h
ydro
dam
s
��Pu
nctu
ated
by
flood
s in
oth
er p
arts
of
the
coun
try
Punc
tuat
ed b
y flo
ods
in o
ther
par
ts o
f th
e co
untr
y
Wha
t ne
w s
cien
tific
kno
wle
dge
and
Wha
t ne
w s
cien
tific
kno
wle
dge
and
emer
ging
tec
hnol
ogie
s co
uld
emer
ging
tec
hnol
ogie
s co
uld
miti
gate
the
m
itiga
te t
he I
nigo
Jon
es S
cena
rio?
Inig
o Jo
nes
Scen
ario
?��
Vert
ical
far
min
g?Ve
rtic
al f
arm
ing?
��Pr
ecis
ion
farm
ing?
Prec
isio
n fa
rmin
g?
��N
anot
echn
olog
y?N
anot
echn
olog
y?
��Bi
otec
hnol
ogy?
Biot
echn
olog
y?
��O
ther
?O
ther
?
Sour
ce:
Wal
ter
Der
zko;
The
Sm
art
Econ
omy
Blog
How
to
get
valu
e fo
r m
oney
fro
m a
H
ow t
o ge
t va
lue
for
mon
ey f
rom
a
cons
ulta
nt w
ho is
doi
ng S
&T
cons
ulta
nt w
ho is
doi
ng S
&T
Scan
ning
?Sc
anni
ng?
��G
ood
proj
ect
man
agem
ent
prac
tices
Goo
d pr
ojec
t m
anag
emen
t pr
actic
es��
Rol
es &
res
pons
ibili
ties
Rol
es &
res
pons
ibili
ties
If y
ou h
ave
any
ques
tions
or
wis
h If
you
hav
e an
y qu
estio
ns o
r w
ish
to f
ollo
w u
p, c
onta
ct:
to f
ollo
w u
p, c
onta
ct:
��W
alte
r D
erzk
oW
alte
r D
erzk
o��
The
Smar
t Ec
onom
yTh
e Sm
art
Econ
omy
��41
641
6 --53
353
3 --96
67 in
Tor
onto
9667
in T
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to��
wde
rzko
@pa
thco
m.c
omw
derz
ko@
path
com
.com
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alte
r.de
rzko
@ut
oron
to.c
aW
alte
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