Achim Dobermann

TG 7 – Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems

Expert Group Meeting on “Science and Technology for Sustainable Development Goals”, SDSN and UN-DESA,

Columbia University, New York, 16 December 2013

Science & Technology Innovations in Agriculture

Total factor productivity is the primary source of growth in agriculture – but is highly variable among countries

Source: K. Fuglie et al., 2012

S&T role

How can we ensure that all countries have high TFP growth? How can we accelerate S&T for sustainable agricultural intensification?

Time (years)

Ado

ptio

n

0 30

Basic research Technology development

Challenge:  long  lag  +mes  from  research  to  large  impact  of  new  technologies  

Release

10 20

10-15 years of R&D Variable, slow adoption Disadoption

Annual adoption rate

Cumulative adoption

<20 to >90%

The problem of too much water

20 million ha affected by floods in South and Southeast Asia Growing problem with climate change Rice is only crop suitable, but ‘drowns’

The problem of too much water

Samba-Sub1

Samba Samba-Sub1

IR64-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1)

IR64 IR42

IR64

IR64-Sub1

Samba-Sub1

IR49830 (Sub1)

Samba

IR64

IR64-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1)

IR42

IR64-Sub1

IR64

IR49830 (Sub1) IR49830 (Sub1)

IR42

Samba

IR42

Samba

Gene for submergence tolerance (sub1) found in a local variety (FR13A) and moved into popular “mega-varieties”

FR13A

Science innovation: flood-tolerant rice

2006: Swarna-Sub1 developed by marker assisted backcrossing

Farmers’ submergence tolerant landraces collected, including FR13A Farmers’ submergence tolerant landraces collected, including FR13A

1950 1978 1990 2000 2010

Gene bank screened; FR13A identified Gene bank screened; FR13A identified toltol. combined . combined

agronomic features agronomic features

Fine mapping & marker development initiated

2002: Swarna crossed with IR49830-7 (Sub1)

2006: Sub1-A gene conferring submergence tolerance

Sub1 in Indonesia, Philippines Sub1 in Indonesia, Philippines

2008: Sub1-A mode of action: inhibit response to GA

2010: Two Sub1 varieties released in Bangladesh

Science innovation: flood-tolerant rice

Spillover: sub1 varieties in SE Asia; wide use of sub1 gene in public and private sector breeding (Africa, Asia, South America)

Diffusion of flood-tolerant rice through PPP

October 2010, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Local variety: re-planted after total loss due to flood

2013: new Sub1 varieties reached >4 million farmers in Asia Free “crop insurance” Yield advantage of 1-1.5 t/ha; earlier harvest

Swarna-Sub1: recovered after 17 d flood

Impact

How to accelerate S&T impact? •  R&D:

–  Precise product profiling (gene targeting): digital spatial technologies, market research

–  Speed up gene discovery and trait development: genomics, phenomics, bioinformatics

–  Precision breeding pipelines with high-throughput technologies to cut variety development time in half

•  Policy: –  Modernize variety release procedures and seed laws –  Incentives for developing a vibrant private seed sector

Source: Sutton, M.A. et al. 2012).

Full Chain NUEN,P

The problem: Low nitrogen use efficiency

• Apply only moderate amount of N

• Increase amount in proportion to crop yield

Early • Apply at critical growth

stages

• PI application at 60 days before harvest

• Vary N based on crop N needs and status

Active tillering & PI

Early growth Active tillering

Panicle initiation Maturity Heading

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 days

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 DAT

Transplanting

Direct seeding

Heading • Diagnose need for extra N

S. Peng, K. Cassman, C. Witt, R. Buresh, A. Dobermann, IRRI

Science innovation: Site-specific N management

•  10-20% more yield and profit •  30-50% greater N use efficiency •  Less fossil fuel •  Less N2O emissions •  Less water pollution •  Less pests (and pesticides)

R&D 1992-2005 demonstrated:

Science innovation: Site-specific N management

How to achieve behaviour change in +100 million rice

farmers?

User interface: obtain information

from farmer Personal computer

Smartphone

Actionable field advice

Printed guidelines

SMS Image on Smartphone

Cloud based server Localized databases and

spatial information •  Administrative units •  Variety traits •  Climate-based yield targets •  Climatic risks •  Soil and water information •  Providers of inputs,

services, knowledge

Rice Crop Manager app

Diffusion: Smartphone applications for farmers

Ag Professionals

NMRice fertilizer recommendations by region in the Philippines. Total of 18,796 from Jan 2012 – 30 Sept 2012

Source: IRRI NM webapps analytics; includes web and Android but not IVR

How to accelerate S&T impact? •  R&D:

–  Precise product profiling (targeting): market research –  Invest more in S&T to accelerate product

development (public and private)

•  Policy: –  Incentives for farmers to adopt more resource-

efficient technologies: smart subsidies –  Broadband internet access –  Incentives and opportunities for people and private

sector: business models, financing and professional skill development for services providers

Maize C4

Rice C3

Grain yield = 13 tons/ha

Grain yield = 9 tons/ha

A C4 rice could increase grain yield, water and nitrogen use efficiency by 30-50%. No other mechanism exists that could deliver that superior combination of benefits.

C3 Anatomy Change

Biochem Change

Fine Tuning + + + = C4

Innovation: Re-engineering photosynthesis

Gene discovery

and molecular toolbox

development

Characterize regulatory controls

Transform rice to express Kranz

anatomy and the C4

metabolic enzymes

Optimize C4 function

in transgenic

rice

Breed C4 transgenics into local varieties

3 years

3 years

5 years 4 years

The timeline for C4 rice

•  15-20 years of R&D needed •  Global effort •  PPP •  Wide access to IP

How to accelerate S&T impact? •  R&D:

–  Explore different routes, potential breakthroughs –  Increase public investment in basic research –  Leverage public and private sector know-how

•  Policy: –  Long-term commitment –  Ensure wide access to IP

Global public and private spending on all types of R&D in 2009

162 countries, excluding E-Europe and FSU P. Pardey et al., 2013

81% in just 10 countries 33% in the USA alone 66% private sector

Total: US$ 1.1 trillion (2005 PPP$) Agriculture: US$ 53 billion (5%) (~60% public, 40% private)

Structure of public food and agricultural research worldwide, 2009

P. Pardey et al., 2013

Annual rate of return on investments in public agricultural R&D: 20-80%

$34.1 billion (2005 PPP$)

Private food and agricultural R&D in the rich countries, 1970-2009

24 countries P. Pardey et al., 2013

More public and private investments in agricultural S&T

•  Increase funding for public agric. R&D in all countries.

•  Target 10b: •  Low- and middle-income should spend at least

10% of natl. budget on agriculture, including at least 1% of agricultural GDP on R&D in their country (currently: ~0.5% or less)

•  ODA: spend at least 10% on agriculture

• Create IP laws, other regulations, technology incentives that encourage greater private sector investments in S&T as well as wide access to innovations.