Scotland’s Census 2021 Presentation · 2015-12-15 · What going to cover • Current key messages and context • Success and challenge from previous censuses • Noteworthy uses,

#ScotPAMS15

Scotland’s Census 2021

Amy Wilson

Head of Census

What going to cover

• Current key messages and context

• Success and challenge from previous censuses

• Noteworthy uses, benefits and products

• Scotland’s Census in numbers – a predominantly online

survey…

• Scotland’s Census 2021 - high level design

• Importance of understanding user needs – topic

consultation

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2021 - key messages

• NRS is planning to conduct a census in Scotland in 2021

• Designed and managed in Scotland; to best meet the needs of its

users

• It will: - provide invaluable information, not available elsewhere

- be conducted primarily online

- make best use of technology and digital services

- require the support and contribution of others to ensure

success, in particular participation by all of the people of

Scotland

- make best use of other existing data to support its delivery

- continue to protect the personal information of all.

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Context

• Over 150 years of planning and managing the census in

Scotland

• Will build on those previous censuses

• Societal and technological changes – related

expectations and changing attitudes re. privacy

– Speed of change continues to increase

• Economic context and public sector finances

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Building on successes of 2011

• NRS conducted all aspects of the entire operation, including data

processing, for the first time

• Positive engagement with users and other stakeholders

• Inclusion of several new topics in the census including some unique

to Scotland

• A high level of overall response – 94%

• Introduction of an online response option – around 20%

• More flexible means of dissemination and analysis of an increased

range of census data via the Scotland’s Census website

• More work to support and encourage use and understand benefits

• Delivered under budget

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Learning from 2011

• As first time conducting entire process, an inevitably steep learning

curve

– Areas that could be improved upon for future censuses

• It took longer to produce outputs than was originally intended

– A variety of issues contributed but it undoubtedly had an impact on our users and

the utility of the data

• Managing expectations throughout entire process – e.g. timing and

impact on data of disclosure procedures

• NRS undertook efforts to involve users in output production phase

but not always possible.

– Need focus on ways to continually retest requirements and priorities

• If you have others, hope you share with us in the workshop

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Noteworthy products and uses

www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk

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http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/


www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk

Parliamentary profiles

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http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/


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www.scotland.datashine.org.uk

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http://www.scotland.datashine.org.uk/

http://scotland.datashine.org.uk/


Church of Scotland – Statistics for Mission

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Fife Council – Know Fife

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Time for a quick census survey/ test

• Can the PAMS Conference cope with a ‘predominantly online’

survey?

• Time to get your (smart)phones/ tablets etc out

• If you’ve got mobile internet (and coverage) great!

• If you wish to connect to the zoo wifi, it shouldn’t require a password

• Open your device’s internet browser

• If you are digitally excluded, have problems, would rather complete

the survey on paper, please raise your hand.

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Please take part in our census survey

‘Internet Access Code’ is:

[Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]

• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties, first speak to

those in your community – can they help?

• If they cannot help, please raise your hand

• If you would rather complete the survey on paper, please raise both

your hands

• Non-response follow up will begin in 3 minutes

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PAMS census survey/ test



Q1&2 of 8

Around how many temporary field staff were employed in relation to the

Scotland's Census 2011 Programme? 3,000 5,000 or 7,000

And approximately how many hours (in total, combined) did they work?

260,000 370,000 or 480,000

• If you are digitally excluded, experience difficulties or would rather

complete the survey on paper, please raise your hand.

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Q3 How many telephone enquiries did NRS (then GROS) receive at

the time of the 2011 Census?

80,000

140,000

200,000



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‘Internet Access Code’ is: ow.ly/VgNpC [Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]

Q4 How many tables of data has NRS published from the 2011

Census? (N.B. Many broken down to over 56,000 geographies)

2,000

4,000

6,000



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Q5 Although not promoted particularly strongly, around what % of

people were included in online responses?

5%

10%

20%



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Q6 Have you accessed any government services online? e.g. road tax,

council tax, other?

Yes

No



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Q7 And (we had to ask on the data!) what was the population of

Scotland at the time of the 2011 Census?

5,295,403

5,394,502

5,493,205



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‘Internet Access Code’ is:ow.ly/VgNpC [Enter this in your internet browser as you would any internet address]

Q8 Question the last is this. With the imminent release of a new Star

Wars movie in mind, how many apparent Jedis were there in Scotland

in 2011?

14,000

41,000

114,000



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• Please note the PAMS census survey will close in 30 seconds

• Non-response follow up action will now begin



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PAMS census survey/ test outputs

• You don’t really need to wait until 2023!

• We will produce them as quickly as possible for 2021

• But perhaps not quite as fast as today…

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2021 – High level timeline

• Research, design and prototyping (2015 - 2017)

• Testing, development and legislation (2018 -

2020)

• Collection and Operations (2020 - 2021)

• Analysis, Output and Dissemination (2021 -

2024)

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2021 – High level design

Planned developments from 2011:

• Predominantly online data collection

• Post out instead of enumerator delivery and

flexible follow up

• Increased use of existing/ administrative data

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Predominantly online

• Would expect online self response to be high

quality and cheaper to capture

• Should lead to quicker outputs

• Still may be a place for paper

• Balance to be struck between Quality –

Participation – Cost

• Of course brings challenges too - workshop

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Post out and flexible follow up

• 2011 – 95% hand delivery

• High quality address register, enumerators acted

as back up

• Moving to post out only relies on that high quality

register

• We will need to test the quality - over time and in

different areas

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Post out

Cen

sus

Day

Days before Census -20 -15 -10 -5

Post out IAC to areas most likely to require support

Staggered post out IAC to most of Scotland

Post out IAC to areas most likely to be disengaged

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Follow up C

ensu

s D

ay

Weeks after Census +1 +2 +3 +4 +5

1st reminder

letter

… and so on

2nd reminder

letter

Start field work in hardest to count areas

Start field work in other hard to count areas

Start field work in easier to count areas

Start field work in easiest to count areas

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Use of administrative data

• Opportunities for admin data in planning,

carrying out and quality assuring the census

• Use to ID hard to count areas/ direct resources/

prioritise follow up

• Also (perhaps) in processing

• But also risks of becoming dependent on admin

data which changes or stops being available

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2021 – High level design – in summary

Paper Returns

Data cleaning

Internet Returns

Capture and code

data

Complete Database

Post out Access codes

and forms

Coverage Adjustment

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Understanding user needs

UKSA – ‘Strengthening user engagement’

“The use and utility of statistics should drive the development of the service. It must be the basis for all decisions about:

• Which statistical outputs to produce;

• The form they should take; and

• The balance between the resources devoted to their collection and the resources given to supporting their use.”

• Current consultation first formal step towards understanding user needs for 2021

• Will use responses to build on picture and current knowledge from previous activity

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Topic Consultation

• Conducting consultation primarily online

• Open until 15 January 2016

• Responses will be published

• Report our response to the consultation around Spring 2016

• Workshop session will explore our initial view and seek discussion

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Questions/ further information

• Questions?

• Topic consultation:

www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/consultation-

2021

• E-mail:

[email protected]

#ScotPAMS15

http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/consultation-2021



mailto:[email protected]

Tea & Coffee time!

Next up: Scotland’s Census - Workshops

These workshops will run twice in this session

• 1 & 4) 2021 Topic Consultation

• 2 & 5) A “predominantly online census”

• 3 & 6) What other lessons should we learn?

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Documents

Scotland’s Census 2021 Presentation · 2015-12-15 · What going to cover • Current key messages and context • Success and challenge from previous censuses • Noteworthy uses,