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Scrum through a Kaleidoscope and a Crystal Ball
Why it makes sense and where it may be heading
Rowan BunningCSM, CSP, [email protected]: 0410 975 850
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
OutlineWhy Scrum makes sense
The “To do” listSocial ComplexityEmpirical Process Control
Where Scrum and Agile may be headingEmerging ToolsImpediment Removal
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
The Kaleidoscope
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
It’s Saturday Morning...Lots of things that need doing...
Product BacklogHosting a party next weekend
Release!“To Do” list of what we can do this weekend
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
The “To do” list?
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
A better “To do” list1. Pickup a new bottle of gas for the BBQ
2. Buy some more outdoor chairs
3. Mow the lawn
4. Find that old cricket bat
5. Invite the neighbours
6. Fix the hole in the fence
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
It’s Saturday Morning...Lots of things that need doing...
Product BacklogHosting a party next weekend
Release!“To Do” list of what we can do this weekend
Sprint BacklogDiscuss the plan for the day over breakfast on Sunday Daily Scrum
Discuss how the weekend went over dinner on Sunday Sprint Review & Retrospective
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.Reference: Agile Software Development with Scrum, Ken Schwaber, Mike Beedle, Prentice Hall, 2001.
“The Scrum practices are hidden but simple universal patterns that have been forgotten by most of us.”
- Mike Beedle
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Party Time!
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Party Time! (take 2)You invite the same people
Provide the same food and drink
Play exactly the same music
Q: Would the second party turn out the same?
• What happened is only “retrospectively coherent”
• Cannot be reliably repeated
- Signs that this is a complex domain
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
InteractionsDots Possible links (L) Possible patterns
(P)
4 6 64
Dots
Patt
erns
Link
s
Reference: Boisot Omnipedia issue 6 Sept/Oct 2004 via Naturalising sense-making, Dave Snowden, KM Australia, July 2007.
L
10 45 3.5 trillion
12 66 4,700 quadrillion
L=N(N-1)/2 P=2
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Picking the right tool for the Job
ComplicatedComplex
SimpleChaotic
Reference: C.F. Kurtz and D.J. Snowden (2003), The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world, IBM Systems Journal, Vol 42, No 3, pp. 462-483.
Disorder
Probe, Sense, Respond
C & A coherent in retrospect and do not repeat
Sense, Analyse, Respond
C & A separated over timeand space
Sense, Categorise, Respond
C & A perceivable, predictable, repeatable
Act, Sense, Respond
C & A not perceivable
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
The tool for Complexity
Apply
Adapt
Inspect
Probe
Respond
Apply
Adapt
SenseInspect
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Managing investments
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Driving a car
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Birds flocking
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Success vs Complexity0.9
0.5
0.1
Low Medium High
Probabilityof success
Flexible response to unpredictability improves p(Success) to complexity relationship
Complexity
Defined Empirical
Increased probability of
success
Reference: Agile Software Development with Scrum, Ken Schwaber, Mike Beedle, Prentice Hall, 2001.
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
“Applying predictive controls to empirical processes in the chemical industry is the primary cause of exploding chemical plants and in the software industry it is the primary cause of exploding projects.”
- Dr. Jeff Sutherland
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
The Crystal Ball
Emerging Tools
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Agile Transitioning PatternsAdoption patterns:
Technical practices first
Iterative first
Requirements first
Start small
All in
Stealth mode
Public display of agility
Impending doom
Reference: “Succeeding with Agile: A Guide to Transitioning”, Mike Cohn, Fall 2007 Scrum Gathering, London.also http://www.agile2007.org/index.php%3Fpage=sub%252F&id=366.html
Expansion patterns:
• Split and seed• Grow and split
• Internal coaching
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Reference: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=0KPuayvaZy1GnXfMJh1dMQ_3d_3d
Gathering Agility Data
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Using Agility Data
“What we plan to do in the future is be able to create comparative reports. This will allow a company to compare itself to other similar companies. Eventually though we hope for the ability to say "compare my company to other companies producing commercial software and that have six months of experience with agile", etc.”
Reference: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/scrumdevelopment/message/28309
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Agile ContractsFixed price: perceived risk shifting, compromised outcome, change requests
T&M: low margin, open-ended, lacks incentives
Reference: Selling Agile: Target-Cost Contracts, Bruce Eckfeldt, Rex Madden, John Horowitz, Agile 2005.
X
X
✓Consider a driver’s license as a contractRules of engagement vs deliverables
Reciprocal SLAs
✓See the “Target Cost” contracting model
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Non-Command & Control ScrumMastering Techniques
CDE *Containers, Differences, Transforming Exchanges
ABIDE †Attractors, Barriers, Identities, Diversity, Environment
ASHEN ‡Artifacts, Skills, Heuristics, Experience, Natural Talent
References: * “Succeeding with Agile: A Guide to Transitioning”, Mike Cohn, Fall 2007 Scrum Gathering, London. † “Snowden, D. (2005), Multi-ontology sense making, a new simplicity in decision making, Management Today, Yearbook 2005.
‡ Snowden, D. (2004), The ASHEN Model: an enabler of action, Knowledge Management, Vol 3, Issue 7.
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Emerging Tools
Agile Transitioning Patterns
Comparative Agility Data
Agile Contracts
Non Command & Control ScrumMastering Techniques
Tools from Social Complexity Science
Impediments Being Removed
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
CSM Certification TestWhy a test?
“Without an end-of-course assessment it is just a certificate not certification.”
Test designed by a 3rd party organisation
Multiple choice
Will comply with many industry standards
Expected to start Jan 1, 2009
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
CSM Certification Test“The purpose of the certification program is to conduct certification activities in a manner that upholds standards for competent practice in a profession, occupation, role, or skill. Certification can lead to better visibility, increased self esteem, financial opportunities and better jobs. In today's increasingly complex and highly-specialized economy, credentials are everything. Sure, you know you've got the skills to do the job, but how do you convince potential customers and employers? For many career-minded professionals, certification is often the answer.”
- Jim Cundiff, Managing Director, Scrum Alliance
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
PMI Agile SIG“We are a grassroots collection of PMI members advocating the creation of a dedicated PMI component for Agile and Lean techniques.
A growing body of PMI’s membership are becoming intrigued by the effectiveness of Agile and Lean techniques...”
Reference: http://www.theagilebridge.com/blog/2008/8/18/pmi-agile-special-interest-group.html
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Unbranded Agile“The one thing I would change about this group if I started it again is the name.”
- Dr. Neil Roodyn re Sydney XP Activity Club
“Lean vs. Scrum – Stop Fighting/Start Delivering”
- Simon Bennett, Fall 2008 Scrum Gathering
Books on ‘Agile’ for Scrum, XP, Lean audience
Reference: http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/SyXPAC/message/2107
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Impediment Removal
CSM Certification Test
PMI Agile SIG
Unbranded Agile
Early Majority Adoption
Generational Change
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it”
- Alan Kay
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Resources
Cognitive Edge: cognitive-edge.com
Agile Narratives: agilenarratives.org
Agile Transitions: succeedingwithagile.com
Agility Survey: tinyurl.com/2tmx2n
Agile 2007 Presentations: agile2007.org
© Rowan Bunning, 2008.
Rowan BunningCSM, CSP, [email protected]: 0410 975 850
Software With Style- Certified ScrumMaster training- Agile Coaching- Retrospective Facilitation- Consulting
