The State of the Ocean and the impact of subsidies

Daniel PaulySea Around Us projectFisheries Centre, UBC

World Trade OrganizationGeneva, September 30, 2010

Fisheries landings, despite (or because of ) increasing fishing effort, have been declining since the late 1980s, a fact long hidden by massive over-reporting by China:

Watson and Pauly (Nature), 2001.

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Glo

bal c

atch

(t ·1

06 )

Uncorrected

Corrected

Corrected, no anchoveta

El Niño event

(a)El Niño events

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

With

draw

als (

mill

ion

t)

A

E

D

C

B

In fact, the decline is even stronger if one considers discarded fish. This was generally overlooked when FAO’s last estimate of discards (dot E; 7-8 million t) was released.

Zeller and Pauly (Fish & Fisheries, 2005)

Peruvian anchoveta

Other landed fishes and invertebrates

Discarded fishes and invertebrates

It is our overfishing which is the cause for these catch declines...

Fishing effort (2000)

Fuel (2000)

Yellow: 0.0-3.0 log hpdays km-2

Red: 3.1-15.7 log hpdays km-2

Yellow: 1.0-2.4 log liters km -2Red: 2.5-7.6 log liters km -2.

Effort data from Gelchu (2006); fuel data adapted from Tyedmers et al. (2005)

General trends

Ecosystem biomass left in 2000: 87.7%

Predator biomass left: 55.9%  

Biom

ass left (%

) Predators only: Predators in EEZs: 

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

100% 0%Predator biomass

remaining (%):

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

100% 0%Predator biomass

remaining (%):

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

100% 0%Predator biomass

remaining (%):

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

100% 0%Predator biomass

remaining (%):

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

100% 0%Predator biomass

remaining (%):

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

100% 0%Predator biomass

remaining (%):

Historically, the answer to depletions was moving on, e.g., to West Africa, which has long attracted distant water fleets from other continents …

Number of ‘country access years’by area, 1960-1969

… which increased over the years, finally reaching the present, staggering levels.

Number of ‘country access years’by area, 1990-1999

t/km2

An example: catch intensity by Spain, 1950s

t/km2

Catch intensity by Spain, 2000-2004

Top: catch by EU fleets in 2000-2005; center: areas from which seafood is imported into the EU (same period); below: fraction of the total catch that goes to the EU.

>60%

0%

Top: catch by the US in 2000-2005; center: areas from which seafood is imported into the US (same period); below: fraction of the total catch per area that goes to the US.

>60%

0%

>60%

0%

Top: catch by Japan in 2000-2005; center: areas from which seafood is imported into Japan (same period); below: fraction of the total catch per area that goes to Japan.

Result: in the 2000s, three markets (the EU, US and Japan) access much of the marine resources of the world ocean (scale is % of catch destined for one of these three markets; with red=100% and blue= 0%)

Sustainable?

Back to basics: ecosystem fluxes move up ‘trophic pyramids’…

Tro

phic

leve

l

Phytoplankton

Top predators

Prey fish

Zooplankton

. . .. . . . . . . . *. . ... . .*.*.*.

*. *.*.*.

. . . . . . 10%

10%

10%

*.

4

3

2

1

and each species tends to have its own trophic level…

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995Year

Trop

hic

leve

l

Global coastal

North Atlantic

2000

Another ominous trend emerges when we compute the mean trophic level of world catches. This shows a global decline…

Pauly et al. (Science, 1998)

For example in India…

Bhathal & Pauly (Fisheries Research, 2008)

In fact, ‘fishing down’ is so widespread that the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) now uses mean trophic levels as an index of biodiversity, the “Marine Trophic Index”.

Trophic level change (1950-2000)

>1 0.5 to 1.0 no change /no data

And this means that ‘fishing down’ is

everywhere

We can see from space how trawlers stir up sediment…

Photo courtesy of Dr. Kyle van Houten (Duke University)

Here: shrimp trawlers off the Texas Coast, Gulf of Mexico

FisheriesFisheries--inducedinducedrelease from release from predation on the predation on the adult (pelagic) formadult (pelagic) form

FisheriesFisheries--inducedinduceddecline of competition fordecline of competition forand predation on the and predation on the benthic (sessile) formbenthic (sessile) form

FisheriesFisheries--inducedinducedrelease from release from predation on the predation on the adult (pelagic) formadult (pelagic) form

FisheriesFisheries--inducedinduceddecline of competition fordecline of competition forand predation on the and predation on the benthic (sessile) formbenthic (sessile) form

The effect of all this is that jellyfish appear to increase almost everywhere...

IncreaseStable/VariableDecrease

An indeed, jellyfish are increasing almost everywhere…

… and since trawling and fishing down are likely to continue, enjoy your JBLT !

Grenadier, snoek,seabream

Hake

HakeHake

FlatfishPollockFlounder

Cod

Cod, saithe, plaice, redfish, haddockDemeral Fishes

Consumers in the ‘North’ have not noticed this, nor similar trends: while most seafood is traded between the EU, the USA and Northeast Asia, the ‘South’ has so far met the shortfall in the ‘North’….

Tuna and other large pelagic fishes (62% of exports)

EEZ fishedImporting country

The vicious circle of contemporary

fisheries management is to

a large extent driven by

subsidies….

Now turning to subsidies

MEY

MSY Bionomic equilibrium

(BE)

Total cost of fishing effort

(TC)

Total Revenue

(TR)

Fishing effort (E)

TR &

TC ( $)

E1 E2 E3

Max.rent

TC1

TC2BE2

BE1

TR

TR&

TC($)

E3 E4 Fishing effort (E)

Cost-reducing subsidies

Let’s assume a Gordon-Schaefer bioeconomic model How subsidies induce overfishing

Non fuel

Fuel

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

World Bank This study

Subs

idy

amou

nts

in b

illion

USD

Global subsidy comparisons

Sumaila and Pauly (2006)

Subsidies come in different flavors…

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Asia

Europe

Lat. America & Caribbean

North America

Sub Saharan Africa

North Africa & Mediterranean

Oceania

Subsidy amount (billion USD)

Good subsidies Bad subsidies Ugly subsidies

Sumaila and Pauly (2006)

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Fishing port develop.

Fisheries projects

Fuel subsidies

Rural f isher communities

Fisheries mngt.

Boat construct. & renov.

Fisheries R & D

Market. & storage infrast.

Tax exemption

Fig 4: Developing country subsidies (billion USD)

External public funds Internal public funds

Developing country subsidies (billion USD)

Fuel subsidies are very important to certain fisheries (e.g., trawlers). Fuel prices are likely to increase, however (remember Summer 2008?), and cause big problems to industrial and distant-water fishing...

Pauly et al. (Science, 2003)

This all lead, overall to a globally declining catch per person…

Sources: Watson & Pauly (2001, Nature 414:534 – 536) & U.S. Bureau of the Census (International database).

FISHERY

BENEFITS LARGE SCALE

SMALL SCALE

Number of fishers employed

about ½ million

over 12 millions

Annual catch of marine fish for human consumption

about 29 million tonnes

about 24 million tonnes

Capital cost of each job on fishing vessels

$30,000 - $300,000

$250 - $2,500

Annual catch of marine fish for industrial reduction to meal and oil, etc.

about 22 million tonnes

Almost none

Annual fuel oil consumption

14 – 19 million tonnes

1 – 3 million tonnes

Fish caught per tonne of fuel consumed =

2 – 5 tonnes =

10 – 20 tonnes

Fishers employed for each $1 million invested in fishing vessels

5 - 30 500 – 4,000

Fish and invertebrates discarded at sea

10-20 million tonnes

Little

Summarizing: This graph, which compares small-scale with large-scale fisheries on a global basis, probably underestimates the role of small-scale fisheries, because official statistics underestimate their catch. We would achieve most stated aims of fisheries management plans (particularly with regards to jobs and sustainability) by getting rid of subsidies, which are directed mainly at industrial fisheries.

Acknowledgements…• Thanks to the Pew Charitable Trusts,

Philadelphia;

• Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia;

• Members of the Sea Around Us project,and many others...

visit us at www.seaaroundus.org