Seasonal ENSO Forecasting: Where does a simple model stand ... · Seasonal ENSO Forecasting: Where does a simple model stand amongst the other operational ENSO models? HALMAR HALIDE

Seasonal ENSO Forecasting: Where does a simple model stand amongst

the other operational ENSO models?

HALMAR HALIDE

Hydrometeorology Laboratory, Geophysics Study Program, Physics Department, FMIPA Universitas Hasanuddin,

Makassar 90245, Indonesia

____________________________________________________________________________

Keynote Presentation at the 6th International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Physics, 20th Sept 2016, IPTEKS Unhas, Makassar

6th ICTAP, 20-9-2016, IPTEKS UNHAS MAKASSAR



NCDC.NOAA.GOV


http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm




http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/cold.gif


http://phys.org/news/2014-05-winners-losers-cereal-production-el.html



http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140515/ncomms4712/full/ncomms4712.html


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v476/n7361/full/nature10311.html



ZEBIAK ET AL., 2014


ZEBIAK ET AL., 2014


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txthttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/3mth.nino34.81-10.ascii.txt


http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/archive/index.htmlhttp://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/archive/200203/SST_table.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/


http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/archive/index.html










OBS



OBS


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-good-have-enso-forecasts-been-lately


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-good-have-enso-forecasts-been-lately




https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=23569422400


PREDICTANT 5 PREDICTORS

NEW


PLUS NEW ADDITIONAL FEATURES

Y

X

Ɵ = 45

Y’

We perform a 45 degree rotation to the observed-predicted point pairs










https://mattmazur.com/2015/03/17/a-step-by-step-backpropagation-example/


H1

H2




INDOZY ENSOSEASONALFORECASTING

HOT-SPOTSEASONALFORECASTING

FIRE RISKMAP


SEASONAL HOT-SPOT FORECASTING USING ENSO AND PREVIOUS HOT-SPOTHALIDE (2016, GEOPHYSICS NATIONAL SEMINAR)


http://journal.fmipa.itb.ac.id/jms/article/view/303

Jurnal Matematika & Sains, Vol 16, No 1 (2011)


http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/fw


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Seasonal ENSO Forecasting: Where does a simple model stand ... · Seasonal ENSO Forecasting: Where does a simple model stand amongst the other operational ENSO models? HALMAR HALIDE