Seasonal Garden Catch Rate Estimates

Read Me/ Useful Links

Note: see tabs at bottom for data sheets

The catch rate estimates are per Attraction. So when using cheeses like Gouda or Brie, you should also take into account the trap setup's attraction bonus.

These estimates are based on the latest MH V2 "Luck" model. Contributors: Jakob Tomse, Seth Katz, Sam Siebert, Paul Humphreys, Aaron Milstein.

CR = (P*E +(L*E)^2)/(P*E +M)

Where CR=Predicted Catch Rate per Attraction, P=Trap Power, E= Effectiveness Modifier, L=Luck and M= Estimated Mouse Power

Mouse Power and Effectiveness Modifiers were provided by Paul Humphreys (Furoma.com) and are based on mice difficulty ratings given for mice under the mice tab, for various trap setups.

Note: there is no confirmation at this time that the V2 Luck model will accurately predict catch rates in the Seasonal Garden.

Actual early sample results suggest that the model may under-estimate catch rates for certain mice. (See "Actuals" tab)

General Notes

- Mice are generally ranked by difficulty for each season. The "AMP" column shows how much the tower amplifier will go up if you catch that mouse.

- The "Est % Freq" column gives the estimated % of the time you should see that mouse, based on sampled hunter profile catches and misses.

Links:

- Sheet tabs are organized by base. To select a trap setup, look at the season you are in and review the predicted catch rates for the traps for that season. Note that three seasons have an extra trap power type that benefit from an estimated 200% effectiveness multiplier (Spring-Physical, Fall-Shadow and Winter-Hydro). Tactical traps will work for all seasons but are the second best choice except for Summer.

1. "Mousehunt Data V.3.0" (Nathan Yang) - Provides actual hunt log summaries for Seasonal Garden and Tower, as well as other locations.

http://tinyurl.com/MHDataV3

2. "Seasonal Garden/Tower Trap Effectiveness Table" - Gives individual Mice Difficulties based on Trap Power for Various Trap setups and Tower Amplifier levels

http://bit.ly/bnPC9e

3. MH Wiki - Seasonal Garden

http://tinyurl.com/3ystb3r

Bill Comeau Last Updated 9/11/2010 -----------------------------------------------------------Scroll Down for Update Log

Update Log:

Sept 11: Added Base Comparison Sheet

Sep 6: Added Spellbook base CRE's.

Aug 30: Added % Frequency column - shows what % of total attractions each mouse is in a season, based on sampled hunter profiles of attractions (catches + misses).

Aug 27: Fall mice results added to Actuals tab. Model appears to fit the actual results sample fairly well.

Aug 25: Autumn mice released noon EDT, added Bottomless Grave trap (BG)

Aug 24: Added Actual reported results for Summer Mice. The V2 model appears to be under-estimating catch rates for the strongest 3-4 mice, although this is still preliminary.

Aug 17: Tactical changed to 100% Fall, Winter

Bruticle Winter mouse added, prel. estimate of mouse power being used.Scarecrow has been switched to Fall, from Summer

New Trap : ZFM - Zugzwang's First Move Tactical trap - 3660, 15%P, 0%A, 17 Luck, Very Fresh

New Trap : HB - Heat Bath Hydro Trap: 4000 Power, 5%P, 0%A, 14 Luck, Stale

Aug 13 Setup Notes:

- Aug 16 4:45pm EDT. I have added a tab with other common traps, plus made corrections to Alternate trap formula (Beta was using wrong effectiveness multiplier sometimes)

- I have included the "New ZLT" trap although it is not known when it will be released.

- I have assumed that the new ZLT trap that was shown on FBF did not have its shield activated, making its luck 17 before adding base and shield

- I am using the assumed seasons and effectiveness descriptors prepared in my previous "Zugzwang Mice Effectiveness Table" (See Lore and Strategy section thread)

- The model can sometimes provide CR's above 1.0 for weaker mice, these have been capped at .990,since in practice there is always a small chance of missing a catch even with strong traps vs weak mice.

- Assumes no "Tower Amplifier" effect on Catch Rates

- Note that these estimates are preliminary and since this is a new area with new potential features such as seasons, Power Meters and Tower Amplifier, they may not prove to be accurate.

Bill Comeau Alt Est'd A Est Magma Base Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (See tabs at bottom for other setups)

Updated 8/30/2010 Weak Tact Trap Mouse M % -----------------------Tactical-------------------------

Mouse Season to Effect Effect Power P Freq ZFM 2010 HVMT

Derpicorn Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1000 0 0.11 0.990 0.990 0.990

Hydrophobe Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1990 0 0.16 0.977 0.990 0.962

Tanglefoot Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 4430 0 0.3 0.751 0.812 0.727

Puddlemancer Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 9940 0 0.35 0.493 0.501 0.468

Spring Familiar Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 10465 0.1 0.03 0.477 0.483 0.453

Vinetail Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 19005 0.1 0.05 0.315 0.307 0.295

Hot Head Sum Tactical 150% 0% 2290 0 0.15 0.990 0.990 0.990

Monarch Sum Tactical 150% 0% 2535 0 0.15 0.990 0.990 0.990

Firefly Sum Tactical 150% 0% 3695 0 0.2 0.901 0.990 0.880

Stinger Sum Tactical 150% 0% 13085 0 0.25 0.486 0.506 0.461

Firebreather Sum Tactical 150% 0% 15525 0 0.2 0.434 0.446 0.411

Summer Mage Sum Tactical 150% 0% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.312 0.312 0.292

Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2180 0 0.15 0.855 0.928 0.835

Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2395 0 0.2 0.829 0.894 0.809

Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 3170 0 0.23 0.750 0.791 0.727

Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 10875 0 0.35 0.383 0.369 0.361

Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 11460 0.1 0.02 0.369 0.355 0.348

Harvester Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.190 0.191

Over-Prepared Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 2275 0 0.12 0.843 0.913 0.823

Penguin Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 2505 0 0.18 0.817 0.878 0.796

Icicle Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 11340 0 0.25 0.372 0.358 0.350

Frostbite Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 14380 0 0.21 0.313 0.297 0.294

Bruticle Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 16649 0 0.19 0.280 0.264 0.262

Winter Mage Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.190 0.191

Trap Power 4871 3567 4440

Trap Luck 34 42 33

Magma Base Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (See tabs at bottom for other setups)

-----------------------Tactical------------------------- ------------Physical-------------- --------Shadow------- -----------Hydro---------

GS SnoB CDDB PB CCT CoT Gorgon BG Kraken HB ASG

0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.769 0.825 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.474 0.468 0.877 0.837 0.822

0.458 0.450 0.855 0.813 0.799

0.291 0.274 0.610 0.553 0.547

0.990 0.990

0.990 0.990

0.970 0.990

0.476 0.481

0.420 0.419

0.294 0.284

0.885 0.965 0.990 0.990 0.960

0.853 0.920 0.990 0.988 0.927

0.755 0.788 0.973 0.897 0.825

0.352 0.325 0.531 0.467 0.394

0.338 0.311 0.513 0.450 0.379

0.181 0.160 0.294 0.253 0.205

0.871 0.945 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.838 0.899 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.341 0.314 0.667 0.644 0.604

0.283 0.257 0.576 0.563 0.525

0.251 0.226 0.523 0.514 0.478

0.181 0.160 0.397 0.396 0.366

3560 2240 5376 3875 4059 3039 2599 1944 3996 4859 4407

39 45 43 42 41 27 24 22 35 31 29

Notes:

Sheet tabs are at bottom of page

Remember - these are only estimates!!

Catch Rates are Per Attraction.

See Read Me/Links and Commentary

Last Updated August 30,2010

Spreadsheet continues below

Scroll Down to Winter Mage

Bill Comeau Tactical Alt Est'd A Molten Shrapnel Base (MSB) Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (see tabs at bottom for other setups)

Updated 9/6/10 Effective Trap Mouse M % -----------------------Tactical-------------------------

Mouse Season Weakness Modifier Effect Power P Freq ZFM 2010

Derpicorn Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1000 0 0.11 0.990 0.990

Hydrophobe Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1990 0 0.16 0.953 0.990

Tanglefoot Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 4430 0 0.3 0.736 0.786

Puddlemancer Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 9940 0 0.35 0.486 0.488

Spring Familiar Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 10465 0.1 0.03 0.471 0.471

Vinetail Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 19005 0.1 0.05 0.312 0.301

Hot Head Summ Tactical 150% 0% 2290 0 0.15 0.990 0.990

Monarch Summ Tactical 150% 0% 2535 0 0.15 0.977 0.990

Firefly Summ Tactical 150% 0% 3695 0 0.2 0.876 0.990

Stinger Summ Tactical 150% 0% 13085 0 0.25 0.477 0.490

Firebreather Summ Tactical 150% 0% 15525 0 0.2 0.427 0.433

Summer Mage Summ Tactical 150% 0% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.307 0.304

Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2180 0 0.15 0.840 0.901

Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2395 0 0.2 0.815 0.869

Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 3170 0 0.23 0.738 0.771

Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 10875 0 0.35 0.381 0.363

Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 11460 0.1 0.02 0.367 0.349

Harvester Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.187

Over-Prepared Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2275 0 0.12 0.829 0.887

Penguin Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2505 0 0.18 0.803 0.854

Icicle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 11340 0 0.25 0.370 0.352

Frostbite Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 14380 0 0.21 0.312 0.292

Bruticle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 16649 0 0.19 0.279 0.260

Winter Mage Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.187

Trap Power 5030 3683

Trap Luck 32 40

Molten Shrapnel Base (MSB) Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (see tabs at bottom for other setups)


HVMT GS SnoB CDDB Partybot CCT CoT Gorgon BG Kraken HeatBath

0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.937 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.712 0.747 0.789 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.462 0.464 0.450 0.847 0.803 0.790

0.447 0.448 0.433 0.826 0.780 0.768

0.293 0.286 0.264 0.592 0.533 0.528

0.986 0.990 0.990

0.960 0.990 0.990

0.855 0.933 0.990

0.453 0.463 0.461

0.404 0.409 0.402

0.288 0.287 0.273

0.820 0.862 0.926 0.990 0.968 0.907

0.795 0.831 0.884 0.990 0.941 0.876

0.715 0.737 0.759 0.929 0.856 0.782

0.359 0.347 0.315 0.512 0.450 0.378

0.346 0.334 0.302 0.495 0.435 0.364

0.191 0.179 0.155 0.285 0.245 0.197

0.809 0.848 0.907 0.990 0.990

0.782 0.817 0.864 0.990 0.990

0.348 0.336 0.305 0.644 0.627

0.293 0.280 0.249 0.558 0.549

0.261 0.249 0.219 0.507 0.503

0.191 0.179 0.155 0.386 0.389

4588 3686 2310 5544 4001 4191 3142 2691 2016 4144 5031

31 37 43 41 40 39 25 22 20 33 29

Molten Shrapnel Base (MSB) Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (see tabs at bottom for other setups)

-----------Hydro---------

ASG

0.990

0.990

0.588

0.512

0.467

0.358

4563

27

Bill Comeau Tactical Alt Est'd A Spellbook Base Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (see tabs at bottom for other setups)

Updated 9/6/10 Effective Trap Mouse M % -----------------------Tactical-------------------------

Mouse Season Weakness Modifier Effect Power P Freq ZFM 2010

Derpicorn Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1000 0 0.11 0.990 0.990

Hydrophobe Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1990 0 0.16 0.944 0.990

Tanglefoot Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 4430 0 0.3 0.737 0.782

Puddlemancer Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 9940 0 0.35 0.493 0.494

Spring Familiar Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 10465 0.1 0.03 0.478 0.477

Vinetail Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 19005 0.1 0.05 0.319 0.307

Hot Head Summer Tactical 150% 0% 2290 0 0.15 0.988 0.990

Monarch Summer Tactical 150% 0% 2535 0 0.15 0.965 0.990

Firefly Summer Tactical 150% 0% 3695 0 0.2 0.869 0.972

Stinger Summer Tactical 150% 0% 13085 0 0.25 0.483 0.494

Firebreather Summer Tactical 150% 0% 15525 0 0.2 0.433 0.438

Summer Mage Summer Tactical 150% 0% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.314 0.309

Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2180 0 0.15 0.838 0.893

Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2395 0 0.2 0.815 0.863

Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 3170 0 0.23 0.741 0.770

Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 10875 0 0.35 0.390 0.371

Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 11460 0.1 0.02 0.376 0.357

Harvester Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.212 0.194

Over-Prepared Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2275 0 0.12 0.828 0.880

Penguin Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2505 0 0.18 0.804 0.849

Icicle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 11340 0 0.25 0.379 0.360

Frostbite Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 14380 0 0.21 0.320 0.300

Bruticle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 16649 0 0.19 0.287 0.267

Winter Mage Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.212 0.194


Trap Luck 31 39

Spellbook Base Catch Rate Estimates - includes Lucky Shield (see tabs at bottom for other setups)


HVMT GS SnoB CDDB Partybot CCT CoT Gorgon BG Kraken HeatBath ASG

0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.928 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.714 0.745 0.783 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.469 0.470 0.456 0.837 0.793 0.780

0.455 0.454 0.439 0.817 0.771 0.759

0.300 0.292 0.270 0.591 0.533 0.528

0.973 0.990 0.990

0.949 0.990 0.990

0.849 0.919 0.990

0.459 0.467 0.464

0.410 0.414 0.406

0.295 0.292 0.278

0.820 0.857 0.913 0.990 0.949 0.891

0.795 0.828 0.874 0.990 0.924 0.863

0.719 0.738 0.757 0.914 0.846 0.777

0.368 0.355 0.325 0.517 0.458 0.389

0.355 0.342 0.311 0.501 0.443 0.375

0.198 0.185 0.161 0.293 0.253 0.207

0.809 0.844 0.895 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.784 0.814 0.855 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.358 0.345 0.314 0.642 0.628 0.591

0.301 0.288 0.258 0.558 0.552 0.516

0.270 0.256 0.227 0.509 0.506 0.472

0.198 0.185 0.161 0.389 0.393 0.364

4914 3987 2613 5896 4322 4515 3441 2975 2280 4446 5355 4879

30 36 42 40 39 38 24 21 19 32 28 26

Bill Comeau Tactical Alt Trap Mouse Tribal Base Catch Rate Estimates (including Lucky Shield)

Updated 9/11/2010 Season Weaknesses Effective Effective Power ZFM 2010 HVMT

Derpicorn Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1000 0.986 0.990 0.975

Hydrophobe Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1990 0.870 0.941 0.851

Tanglefoot Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 4430 0.673 0.687 0.648

Puddlemancer Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 9940 0.446 0.427 0.421

Spring Familiar Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 10465 0.432 0.412 0.408

Vinetail Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 19005 0.287 0.263 0.267

Hot Head Summer Tactical 150% 0% 2290 0.900 0.990 0.881

Monarch Summer Tactical 150% 0% 2535 0.878 0.971 0.859

Firefly Summer Tactical 150% 0% 3695 0.789 0.849 0.765

Stinger Summer Tactical 150% 0% 13085 0.431 0.421 0.407

Firebreather Summer Tactical 150% 0% 15525 0.386 0.372 0.363

Summer Mage Summer Tactical 150% 0% 24495 0.278 0.261 0.259

Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 2180 0.780 0.803 0.758

Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 2395 0.757 0.775 0.735

Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 3170 0.686 0.687 0.662

Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 10875 0.355 0.324 0.334

Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 11460 0.343 0.311 0.321

Harvester Fall Tact,Shadow 100% 200% 24495 0.192 0.167 0.178

Over-Prepared Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2275 0.770 0.790 0.748

Penguin Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 2505 0.746 0.761 0.724

Icicle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 11340 0.345 0.314 0.324

Frostbite Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 14380 0.291 0.261 0.272

Bruticle Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 16649 0.261 0.232 0.243

Winter Mage Winter Tact,Hydro 100% 200% 24495 0.192 0.167 0.178

Trap Power 5101 3691 4648

Trap Luck 24 32 23

Tribal Base Catch Rate Estimates (including Lucky Shield) Rhino Rhino Onyx Mall

CDDB Rhino Onyx Mall CoT Kraken Heat Bath ASG Magma MSB MSB

0.990 0.990 0.971 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.990 0.923 0.893 0.990 0.990 0.981

0.990 0.786 0.746 0.878 0.857 0.817

0.736 0.590 0.543 0.650 0.639 0.593

0.719 0.576 0.529 0.635 0.624 0.578

0.516 0.418 0.375 0.456 0.451 0.409

0.879

0.857

0.787

0.433

0.419

0.241

0.990 0.959 0.928

0.990 0.942 0.910

0.553 0.557 0.520

0.479 0.488 0.453

0.436 0.447 0.414

0.332 0.346 0.318

5624 6048 5168 3136 4219 5135 4643 5670 5880 5084

33 15 13 17 25 21 19 25 23 21

Bill Comeau Alt Est'd A Est Comparison of Bases

Created 9/11/2010 Weak Tact Trap Mouse M % ZFM

Mouse Season to Effect Effect Power P Freq Magma MSB Spell

Derpicorn Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1000 0 0.11 0.990 0.990 0.990

Hydrophobe Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 1990 0 0.16 0.977 0.953 0.944

Tanglefoot Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 4430 0 0.3 0.751 0.736 0.737

Puddlemancer Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 9940 0 0.35 0.493 0.486 0.493

Spring Familiar Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 10465 0 0.03 0.477 0.471 0.478

Vinetail Spring Tact,Phys 125% 200% 19005 0.1 0.05 0.315 0.312 0.319

Hot Head Sum Tactical 150% 0% 2290 0 0.15 0.990 0.990 0.988

Monarch Sum Tactical 150% 0% 2535 0 0.15 0.990 0.977 0.965

Firefly Sum Tactical 150% 0% 3695 0 0.2 0.901 0.876 0.869

Stinger Sum Tactical 150% 0% 13085 0 0.25 0.486 0.477 0.483

Firebreather Sum Tactical 150% 0% 15525 0 0.2 0.434 0.427 0.433

Summer Mage Sum Tactical 150% 0% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.312 0.307 0.314

Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2180 0 0.15 0.855 0.840 0.838

Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 2395 0 0.2 0.829 0.815 0.815

Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 3170 0 0.23 0.750 0.738 0.741

Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 10875 0 0.35 0.383 0.381 0.390

Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 11460 0.1 0.02 0.369 0.367 0.376

Harvester Fall Tact,Shdw 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.205 0.212

Over-Prepared Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 2275 0 0.12 0.843 0.829 0.828

Penguin Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 2505 0 0.18 0.817 0.803 0.804

Icicle Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 11340 0 0.25 0.372 0.370 0.379

Frostbite Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 14380 0 0.21 0.313 0.312 0.320

Bruticle Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 16649 0 0.19 0.280 0.279 0.287

Winter Mage Wint Tact,Hyd 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.05 0.205 0.205 0.212

Trap Power 4871 5030 5366

Trap Luck 34 32 31

Comparison of Bases

Chrome Drillbot CoT Kraken

Magma MSB Spell Magma MSB Spell Magma MSB Spell

0.990 0.990 0.990

0.990 0.990 0.990

0.990 0.990 0.990

0.877 0.847 0.837

0.855 0.826 0.817

0.610 0.592 0.591

0.990 0.990 0.990

0.990 0.990 0.990

0.973 0.929 0.914

0.531 0.512 0.517

0.513 0.495 0.501

0.294 0.285 0.293

0.990 0.990 0.990

0.990 0.990 0.990

0.667 0.644 0.642

0.576 0.558 0.558

0.523 0.507 0.509

0.397 0.386 0.389

5376 5544 5896 3039 3142 3441 3996 4144 4446

43 41 40 27 25 24 35 33 32

Notes:

Sheet tabs in lower left

This table compares Magma, Molten Shrapnel

and Spellbook using the V2 Luck model and the

best weapons for each season.

Last Updated September 11, 2010

Spreadsheet continues

Scroll Down to Winter Mage

Est'd A Magma/Shield

Weak Tact Alt Mouse M ZFM ZFM 2010

Summer Mice Season to Effect Effect Power P Est Actual Est

Hot Head Sum Tact 150% 0% 2290 0 0.990 0.997 0.990

Monarch Sum Tact 150% 0% 2535 0 0.990 0.993 0.990

Firefly Sum Tact 150% 0% 3695 0 0.901 0.963 0.990

Stinger Sum Tact 150% 0% 13085 0 0.486 0.564 0.506

Firebreather Sum Tact 150% 0% 15525 0 0.434 0.515 0.446

Summer Mage Sum Tact 150% 0% 24495 0.1 0.312 0.366 0.312

# Attractions Sampled 2052


Trap Luck 34 42

8/27/2010 Est'd A

Weak Tact Alt Mouse M CoT/Mag CoT/Mag CoT/MSB

Fall Mice Season to Effect Effect Power P Est Actual Est

Whirleygig Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 2180 0 0.990 0.996 0.990

Pumpkin Head Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 2395 0 0.990 0.992 0.990

Scarecrow Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 3170 0 0.973 0.990 0.929

Harvest Harrier Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 10875 0 0.531 0.541 0.512

Fall Familiar Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 11460 0.1 0.513 0.563 0.495

Harvester Fall Tact,Shd 100% 200% 24495 0.1 0.294 0.368 0.285

# Attractions Sampled 1769


Trap Luck 27 25

Magma/Shield Molten/Shield

2010 ZFM ZFM 2010 2010

Actual Est Actual Est Actual

1.000 0.990 0.987 0.990 1.000

1.000 0.977 0.994 0.990 1.000

0.991 0.876 0.990 0.990 1.000

0.656 0.477 0.545 0.490 0.743*

0.588 0.427 0.554 0.433 0.529

0.442 0.307 0.348 0.304 0.375

1036 1072 120

5030 3683

32 40

CoT/MSB

Actual

1.000

1.000

0.981

0.574

0.462

0.447

670

Notes

Summer

Results were compiled 8/24 from hunter reports from a

thread in Lore section. There may be bias in such

results, with hunters not having caught Mage or

with weak results failing to report.

If they hold true, these early results suggest that the

preliminary Summer estimates are low for stronger mice.

* Small sample

Fall

Results were compiled 8/27-28 from hunter reports to a

Forum thread. A total of 1,769 CoT/Magma and 670

CoT/MSB attractions were reported.

Some significant deviations from the Luck model were

found for Scarecrow and Harvester (MSB only).

Results shaded in yellow are significantly

different than model estimates, with 95%

confidence (two-tailed z-test)

Bill Comeau Last Updated August 28,2010

4280

Commentary

First, note that many of the differences between the trap's estimated catch rates are very small, so it might takes 100's, or in some cases, even 1000's of hunts to show a difference between top trap setups.

The "Luck" Catch Rate model is greatly influenced by Trap Effectiveness x Luck Bonus, which is squared in the formula.

Therefore, we should expect high luck traps to have an even greater edge when hunting in an area where Trap Effectiveness is high.

This is certainly true with three of the seasons, including Winter, where the modifier is 200%.

Since Luck is being squared, you clearly will get a lot more impact as well moving from 33 to 40 than from 10 to 17, for example.

So adding luck to an already high luck setup will work the best.

Conversely, setups with only 100% effectiveness, such as Tactical in Fall and Winter are less influenced by the luck bonus.

In addition, the formula is affected by high vs low mouse power, so you may see one trap performing better on weaker mice but not stronger mice.

So, to sum up, a choice of trap based on this model is really situation-specific, there may not be one "blanket" answer.

Zugzwang's First Move (Tactical 3660 Power, 15% Power bonus, 0% Attraction bonus, 17 Luck)

My comments above help to explain a ZFM vs 2010 comparison.

First, with much higher power but lower luck, ZFM tends to be at its best against higher power mice.

When Effectiveness is higher, such as Summer, it loses ground to 2010 which has higher luck.

When Effectiveness is at 100%, such as Winter, it consistently edges out 2010, especially for the most powerful mice.

So I see ZFM as a useful addition to anyone's inventory, when used in the right situations and it may be especially helpful in the Tower against the most powerful mice there.

Heat Bath (Hydro 4000 Power, 5% Power bonus, 0% Attraction bonus, 14 Luck)

This new Hydro trap barely misses catching the Kraken LE trap against Winter mice based on the Luck CR model and is superior to ASG!

This is a perfect example of where the comments above apply: the 200% modifier for Winter/Hydro means that Kraken's 4 higher luck is boosted significantly and balances out HB's much higher power.

An easy decision for those without Kraken. It may not have much benefit otherwise, unless hunting in an area with low trap effectiveness modifier and powerful mice.

Bill Comeau August 2010

Documents

Seasonal Garden Catch Rate Estimates