Seasonal OutlookLong Range Forecast

Krissy ScottenNWS AMARILLO

CLIMATE DATA OUTLETS

• National Weather Service Amarillo– http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?

wfo=ama

• U.S. Drought Monitor– http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

• National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

• Climate Prediction Center (CPC)– http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Amarillo 2011 Climate Stats• Currently the warmest year on record (63.6° F) • Currently the driest year on record (4.84 inches -

14.01 inches below normal) • Record for most number of 100-degree days in a

calendar year (50) • Record for most number of 90-degree days in a

calendar year (107) • Record for most consecutive 90-degree days (50) • July was the warmest month ever on record (85.2° F) • Warmest July (85.2° F) and August (85.1° F) on

record

Drought Information

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif

El Niño, La Niña, and Everything In Between

What exactly do they mean? How will it affect you?

The Facts El Niño and La Niña episodes typically occur

every 3-5 years. However, in the historical record this interval has varied from 2 to 7 years.

El Niño typically lasts 9-12 months, and La Niña typically lasts 1-3 years.

They both tend to develop during March-June, reach peak intensity between December and April, and then weaken May-July.

EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA•Individual storms or events CANNOT be blamed on La Niña or El Niño!

•Rather, these climate extremes affect the position and intensity of the jet streams and the normal regions of high and low pressure, which in turn affect the average intensity and track of storms.

Jet Stream Position

Effects on Texas EL NIÑO

Cooler and wetterJet Stream farther

southSnowier than normal

• LA NIÑA• Warmer and drier• Jet Stream farther

north• Drought and fires

common

Current ENSO Forecast

• La Niña Advisory is in Effect! • La Niña conditions are expected to

gradually strengthen and continue through the 2011-2012 winter.

• El Niño conditions (cool and wet for Texas Panhandle) have less than a 2% chance of developing.

1-Month Temperature Outlook

1-Month Precipitation Outlook

3-Month Temperature Outlook

3-Month Precipitation Outlook

Snow in La Niña Years 1950 - 0.1” 1951 - 6.4” 1955 - 2.3” 1956 - 15.7” 1963 - 8.9” 1965 - 13.1” 1968 - 13.6” 1971 - 27” 1972 - 17.3” 1974 - 6.7”

1975 - 18.9” 1976 - 6.4” 1985 - 10.7” 1989 - 9.8” 1996 - 15.5” 1999 – 23” 2000 - 33.9” 2001 - 20.5” 2008 - 7.1” 2011 - 14.6”

**Amarillo Normal: 17.9”**Average La Niña Years: 13.4”

Tornadoes in La Niña Years• 1955 - 6• 1956 - 2• 1963 - 5• 1965 - 12• 1968 - 22• 1971 - 39• 1972 - 19• 1974 - 13• 1975 - 16

• 1976 - 10• 1985 - 3• 1989 - 32• 1996 - 35• 1999 - 25 • 2000 - 9• 2001 - 22• 2008 - 12• 2011 - 5

**Forecast Area Normal: 21**Average La Niña Years: 16.5

Climate Normals for Amarillo

Average Temperature Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 1981-2010 37 40.3 47.9 56.3 65.6 74.4 78.3 76.8 69.5 58.3 46.3 36.9 57.4 1971-2000 35.8 40.6 47.9 56.2 65.2 74.3 78.2 76.3 69.1 58.2 45.1 37 57

Average Max Temperature Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 1981-2010 50.6 54.2 62.5 71.1 79.5 87.7 91.4 89.4 82.6 71.9 60 49.7 71 1971-2000 48.9 54.1 62.2 70.6 78.6 87.4 91 88.7 81.8 71.8 58.4 49.8 70.3

Average Min Temperature Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 1981-2010 23.4 26.4 33.3 41.6 51.8 61 65.2 64.2 56.4 44.7 32.5 24 43.8 1971-2000 22.6 27 33.6 41.7 51.7 61.1 65.3 63.8 56.3 44.6 31.8 24.1 43.6

Precipitation Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 1981-2010 0.72 0.56 1.39 1.4 2.29 3.16 2.84 2.91 1.92 1.66 0.8 0.71 20.36 1971-2000 0.63 0.55 1.13 1.33 2.5 3.28 2.68 2.94 1.88 1.5 0.68 0.61 19.71

Snow Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 1981-2010 4.7 2.9 2.9 0.7 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.2 2.5 3.7 17.8 1971-2000 4.8 4.1 1.7 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0.4 2.4 3.7 17.9

Long Range Texas Forecast

• Warmer and drier conditions continuing???

• Increased fire threat?• Continuation of significant drought

conditions?

YES!

Climate is what you expect.Weather is what you get.

ANY QUESTIONS?

Krissy Scotten

(806) 335-1421

Kristin.Scotten@NOAA.GOV