Transportation and Bell Times- An Analysis by Seattle Start School Later 5/6/15

What are the factors that create efficiencies or inefficiencies in our Transportation

system?

Can we design a system that is cost effective and gives students bell times that

support our mission- academic excellence for all?

Note: Publicly available data and reports are used in this analysis, but authors are aware than

there are facts and considerations that are unknown to them, and welcome more information

and deeper analysis of this issue.

History

SPS had a two tier bus system until five or six years ago. That was a time of financial crisis, and

a change to three tiers was proposed in order to save money. The projected savings of going to

three tiers was $4 million dollars.

The two tier system had the following bus arrival/departure times:

7:45 a.m 2:15 p.m. for Middle/High,

9:10 a.m.-- 3:10 p.om for Elementary schools

(Taken from the 2008-09 Transportation Service Standards report. Note that morning bell

times are generally around 15 minutes later than arrival times.)

You will notice that there are 85 minutes between the tiers in the morning, and 55 minutes

between the tiers in the afternoon. Transportation has long insisted on the need for at least

50 minutes between tiers in order to run buses efficiently; these schedules were set up to

maintain at least a 50 minute spacing.

Current Situation

The three tier system has had various adjustments over the past five years, but we currently

have the following schedule (somewhat simplified by omitting some of the special case/ one or

two school exceptions.)

Arrival/Departure Times for Three tiers- from 2013-14 Transportation Standards, as amended:

7:35 a.m. 2:30 p.m. for 20 Middle/High (214 buses)

8:25 a.m.-- 3:00 p.m. for about 30 Elementary (179 buses)

8:25 a.m. 3:20 p.m. for 5 K-8s (12 buses)

9:15 a.m.- -3:50 p.m. for about 30 Elementary (202 buses)

9:15 a.m. 4:10 p.m. for 5 K-8s (26 buses)

Please note that there are 50 minutes between each tier in the morning, exactly what

transportation department says that they need to run efficiently.

In the afternoon however, there are only 30 minutes between the Tier 1 Middle/High

and the Tier 2 Elementary bus departure times, which means that many* afternoon

Tier 1 buses cannot be used in Tier 2, because there isnt enough time to get to the

next school. *We have been requesting actual bus route start and end times in order to establish the number

of buses affected by this short tier; we have asked repeatedly to meet with transportation to

discuss this- but are still waiting for an answer or a meeting. We estimate that at least 60 and

up to 90 or more Tier 1 buses cannot be used for Tier 2 afternoon routes. Using the Districts

figure of $66,000 per bus, this represents a cost of $4 million to $6 million.

Because Middle and High come before Elementary, which has a 20 minute shorter school day, a

30 minute short tier is created. This short tier causes huge inefficiencies- Transportation

estimates for the various bell time options add 30% (about $5 million) largely to account for this

structural problem.

Because of this structural problem, the three tier system never achieved the savings that

were promised. In a report to the Board dated Feb, 2012, the actual savings were said to be $2

million, rather than the original projection of $4 million. (We would like to see the details of

these savings, because even $2 million seems doubtful after reviewing the data below.)

This system has never come close to achieving three tiers; we are currently at 2.165 and have

not reached 2.3 during the years (2011 to present) for which data is available.

The data comes from the Quarterly Transportation Reports, which are published on the OSPI

website:

Year Quarter # routes #buses EffectiveTiers

Total Students on buses

SPED kids

SPED buses

HMLS Kids

HMLS Buses

2015 winter 734 339 2.165 11732 2666 182 35 25

2014 fall 720 336 2.143 12208 2675 182 18 15

2014 spring 846 382 2.215 14312 2975 183 77 16

2013 winter 840 382 2.199 14446 2932 183 52 12

2013 fall 840 382 2.199 16077 2506 183 16 12

2013 spring 768 357 2.151 15177 2088 172 16 2

2012 winter 768 367 2.093 15021 2132 172 2 2

2012 fall 768 367 2.093 20717 2075 172 1 2

2012 spring 762 358 2.128 16062 2184 167 224 0

2011 winter 804 360 2.233 17129 2163 165 213 0

2011 fall 804 360 2.233 16934 2427 165 155 0

Some observations on the table:

As you can see, our rate of Effective Tiers (Routes divided by number of Buses) is consistently in

the low 2s; we do not have a three tier system in terms of number of buses used. (We do have

the three tier bell schedule however, one that does not support student learning, health or

safety and causes major inconvenience for many working families.)

Note also that while our number of students getting bus transportation (this does not include

students on Metro) has fallen greatly, the number of buses is relatively fixed:

High/Low # Buses # Students

2015 Winter 339 11732

2012 Fall 367 20717

Change # -28 -8985

Change % -8% -43%

This same pattern is evident for Special Education buses, where the number of students

transported has varied from 2075 to 2975, but the number of buses ranged only from 165 to

182.

As Director Carr and others have long stated, we need to shake the etchisketch on transportation.

Revamping bell times gives us a perfect opportunity to do that. We need to both get rid of the

expensive short tiers, and re-evaluate routes to increase use of bus capacity.

Correcting the Short Tier Flaw- the Task Force Top Three

The Bell Times Task Force evaluated eight options in the course of their work and ranked them in the

following table. Data for this was prepared by Task Force project manager, Sam Markert:

Their top three options schedules are:

1) Two Tiers:

Elementary 8:00 -2:10

Middle/High/K-8 8:50 -3:20

2) Mod Flip 2-( K8 in Tier 2):

Elementary 8:00 - 2:10

K-8/ High 8:50- 3:20

Middle 9:40- 4:10

3) Mod Flip 1 (K8 in Tier 3)

Same as above, with K-8 in Tier 3

All of the top three correct the short tier problem- there is always at least 50 minutes between each tier, thus creating significant cost savings. Some tiers have a 70 minute spread, similar to the 85

minute spread in the schedule from 2008. There is some cost in this having a longer than 50 minute tier,

but we calculate it in the low hundreds of thousands, rather than the millions created by the short tier.

When the decision on which options to present to the public was made, the Task Forces top two

options were removed from consideration. We did not get an explanation; the task force was only told

they cost too much. An analysis was never provided, and figures were quoted by staff ranging from

$16 million to $20 million in additional cost. (For a system such as Two Tiers to save maybe $2 million

when you move away from it, to now cost $20 million if you move back, lacks credibility.)

Our summary of the costs of each option are below. These calculations include a cushion of 26 buses:

6 back-up buses to use in case of breakdowns (current practice)

10 dedicated homeless and special trip buses (current practice)

10 extra buses since tiers cannot be perfectly balanced

The numbers speak for themselves.

Transportation prepared estimates which are shown below; they are quite different from ours. There

are a couple of reasons for this:

They do have the caveat that they have not balanced number of buses between the tiers, which

is needed to be efficient; our numbers do balance the buses, and also add the 10 extra buses as

a cushion.

They add a 30% error rate to the Modified Flip 1, since that is what was used in the current

system. However, that error factor is due to the short tier problem, and so is not needed for

the Modified flip options. (It is needed for the no change, or Extended HS Day, since those

options still have a short tier.)

We have heard and share the concern regarding the possibility that state will reduce our transportation

funding if they rate us as inefficient. We recognize this as a valid concern. However, our efficiency is

currently just above two effective tiers; it would not decline much in going to a Two Tier option. In

addition, there are many inefficiencies in routing that need to be addressed; we should be able to

significantly reduce the number of buses we are operating, and increase the average number of kids on

each bus, thus being able to satisfy the state standards.

OptionAnnual Base

Cost

Additional

Cost (Savings)

from Base

# of

GenED/Gifted

Buses

# of

sped/other

Buses

Back up

buses/tier bal

or amt to get

current actual

Total

Buses

Total

Routes

Current System 23,469,600 113 140 103 356 703

Two Tier System 25,080,000 1,610,400 154 200 26 380 703

Modified Flip 1 18,876,000 (4,593,600) 119 141 26 286 703

Modified Flip 2 - K8 in T-2 20,790,000 (2,679,600) 124 165 26 315 703

Extended HS 27,060,000 3,590,400 120 163 26 309 786

Summary of Transportation Report 4/9/15 Additional Cost:

Current System-Base

Modified Flip 1- w/ 30% cushion 2,970,000

Extended HS- w/ 30% cushion 6,468,000

Conclusion

Our three tier Transportation system has suffered from a major structural flaw, the 30 minute tier, since

it was implemented about 6 years ago. This flaw creates significant unneeded costs (approx. $5 million

annually); while supporting a bell structure that impedes rather than supports student learning, health

and safety.

Changing our bell times to ones that align with childrens changing sleep/wake cycles makes intuitive

sense to most people. Hundreds of research papers support this premise, as well as a growing list of

endorsements. Add the ability to correct a costly structural problem in our transportation system

and achieve this goal with a modest cost (under $2 million for Two Tiers- less if we can re-route

effectively) or even save money (Modified Flip 2) is a winning combination.

Respectfully submitted,

- Start School Later Seattle- Dianne Casper, Cindy Jatul, Catherine Darley, and Kitty Harmon

Later Secondary Starts are endorsed by:

American Academy of Pediatrics

SEA- Seattle Teachers Union

Seattle School Nurse Association

Seattle Council PTSA

Washington State PTA

El Centro de la Raza

Seattle NAACP

Seattle Urban League

Society of Pediatric Nurses

Foundation for Suicide Prevention

over 4,400 petition signers