Upload
seb-group
View
221
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/7/2019 SEB's crude oil comment: Long position best for day ahead
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-crude-oil-comment-long-position-best-for-day-ahead 1/2
TUESDAY1 MARCH 2011Gaddafi digs into his stronghold in Tripoli
TECHNICALANALYSIS
EUR/USD: bullish Brent crude: bullish
COMMODITY
RESEARCH
Bjarne SchieldropChief CommodityAnalyst+47 92 48 92 30 Filip PeterssonCommodityStrategist+46 8 506 230 47
Yesterday Brent crude closed 0.30% lower at $111.8/b after having traded in a$111.25-114.5/b intraday range. Brent crude reached its intraday high during theAsian session on the news that demonstrations also had erupted in Oman. Thedemonstrations turned out to be of limited scope so far, but still resulted in the killingof two demonstrators clashing with the police. The overall threat to supply seemedless threatening yesterday as the Libyan rebels now holds control in a large part of the
country. The head of Libya’s national oil company yesterday said that output was onlydown 50% rather than the 75% feared by the market. Repeated pledges from SaudiArabia that it will ramp up production to meet any shortfalls due to the currentproduction disruptions also helped to calm the market. Thus Brent crude traded downto about $112/b before mid-day European time where after it traded mostly sideways.
Gaddafi has lost control over a large part of Libya, his army is fragmented, his earlier allies and friends around the globe are turning against him and his or Libya’s assetsabroad are becoming out of reach (the US froze $30bn yesterday). Non the less, hestill controls Tripoli (1.5 million inhabitants and a third of Libya’s population) and a10000 strong army in the vicinity of Tripoli as well as a substantial amount of militaryhardware. He has lost the initiative, he is pressured from all fronts but he still has thecapacity to inflict substantial damage on the population. Even if his day’s as a ruler
are numbered he is likely to dig in and defend him selves in Tripoli and it could be anextended period before that situation is resolved. Statistical releases today include German unemployment rate (09:55), Germanmanufacturing PMI (09:55), EU manufacturing PMI (10:00), EU CPI Estimate (11:00),US Construction spending (16:00), US ISM Manufacturing, US ISM Prices paid(16:00), Indicative US oil inventories by API (22:30) and US vehicle sales (23:00).
This morning Brent crude is trading 0.5% higher at $112.4/b. Asian equities are well inthe black with Nikkei up 1.2% and the MSCI AP equity index up 0.8% as a morestable oil price and yesterday’s higher US personal income is boosting optimism for continued recovery. US equity futures are 0.3% while the USD index is unchanged. Even though the supply concerns for Libya now are lower, the main concernhas all the time been the fear of wider supply disruptions across the MENAregion further down the road. Focus is directed towards the potential for uprisings and possible disruptions in Algeria (1.3 mb/p), Oman (0.9 mb/p), Iran(3.7 mb/d) and not the least Saudi Arabia (9 mb/d). In Iran opposition leadershave been arrested in order to avoid protests scheduled today. In Saudi Arabia,the 87 year old King Abdullah is not only showering his supporters with money,but even hosing them with money in order to avoid comparable uprisings. Withgeriatric and/or autocratic leaders versus young and informed populations inthe above mentioned countries, a continued spreading of uprisings seems morelikely than not. Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Analyst Commodities
To subscribe or unsubscribe, please e-mail [email protected]
8/7/2019 SEB's crude oil comment: Long position best for day ahead
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/sebs-crude-oil-comment-long-position-best-for-day-ahead 2/2
Crude Oil Comment
DISCLAIMER & CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division withinSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”). Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change
without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sourcesbelieved to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made withrespect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon asauthoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to basehis or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document isbeing provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to theextent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arisingfrom use of this document or its contents. SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant atmajor Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as somenon-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated byNASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise
and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subjectto limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment businessin the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEBconducts operations.
SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.
SEB Commodity Research
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity [email protected]
+47 9248 9230
Filip Petersson, Commodity [email protected]
+46 8 506 230 47
Technical Analysis
Anders Söderberg, Chief Technical [email protected]
+46 8 506 230 21
Dag Müller, Technical [email protected]+46 8 506 231 29
2