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8/2/2019 SEBs oil market report: Gasoline boosting refinery economics
1/12
Oil Market ReportGasoline boosting refinery economics
3 APRIL 2012
8/2/2019 SEBs oil market report: Gasoline boosting refinery economics
2/12
2
SEB Oil Market Report
Crude oil market
Brent crude is likely to face several headwinds over thenext few months. Weak seasonal demand this springtogether with fading hopes of a rapid globalmacroeconomic recovery may potentially interrupt thegenerally bullish momentum supporting the Brentcrude rally so far this year. Nevertheless, we believeany short term weakness will merely mask a probablegradual tightening of the oil market as July 1approaches when sanctions against Iran fully impact.Anecdotal evidence of widespread hoarding of oil bygovernments worldwide due to concerns regarding thesituation in Iran is already offsetting some seasonalweakness. Iranian oil exports will be restricted inseveral ways, not only to Europe. In addition to far-reaching US sanctions, European insurance companieswill be prevented from insuring shipments of Iranian oilfrom July 1, a restriction likely to impact that countrysoil shipments worldwide with Europe a global centrefor shipping insurance. In conclusion, while we couldsee oil prices weaken in coming weeks, they willsubsequently increase due to the projected full impactof Iranian sanctions and growing seasonal oil demandworldwide.
As supplies of Iranian oil decrease they must be replaced byincreased supply from Saudi Arabia, oil released from the
Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), and drawdowns fromcommercial stocks. Politicians in the US, UK and Francehave already provided verbal confirmation of future SPR
releases as Iranian oil supplies are restricted.
Saudi Arabia is making various preparations. Drilling activitystands at a post-2007 high while plans have already been
announced to restart production at its Dammam field,mothballed in 1980. It is also filling its private oil storagefacilities worldwide and has contracted 11 VLCCs to
transport oil or provide temporary storage. In addition, itsleaders have sought to reassure markets by announcing it
has spare capacity totalling 2.5 mb/d available if required.
Despite question marks over the hoped for global recovery,
and particularly the European outlook, the worldwideeconomy overall still appears set on a gradual upturn over
the next two years. Ab initio, European crude oil stocks arearound 15-year lows and global stocks below their 5-yearaverage; US oil demand is cyclically low; while the situation
will be inevitably compounded by the full impact of theupcoming Iranian oil embargo. In addition, we estimate
OPEC reserve capacity at 2.5-3.0 mb/d, a very low level forthe start of a cyclical upturn, albeit a weak one. Inconclusion, we believe both current and prospective
macroeconomic and oil market conditions are likely toremain highly supportive for oil prices over the next few
years.
Crude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115120
125
130
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
NYMEXWTI
ICE Brent
IEA gIEA gIEA gIEA global crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimateslobal crude oil demand estimates(mb/d)
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
jan-0
9
apr-
09
jul-09
okt-09
jan-1
0
apr-
10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-1
1
apr-
11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-1
2
2009 2010 2011 2012
Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
MonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthly global crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimatesglobal crude oil demand estimates
2011
(mb/d)
Revision
(kb/d)
2012
(mb/d)
Revision
(kb/d)IEA 89.1 +10 89.9 +10EIA 87.90 -30 88.96 -290
OPEC 87.77 -40 88.63 -130
SEBSEBSEBSEB average Brent crudeaverage Brent crudeaverage Brent crudeaverage Brent crude oiloiloiloil price forecastprice forecastprice forecastprice forecast
($/b) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FullYear
2012 120 115 115 120 1182013 - - - - 120
Q2-Q3 2012 pending revision for geopolitical risk premium
8/2/2019 SEBs oil market report: Gasoline boosting refinery economics
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SEB Oil Market Report
Crude oilCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil priceCrude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)
12 month12 month12 month12 month time spreadtime spreadtime spreadtime spread(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango,
8/2/2019 SEBs oil market report: Gasoline boosting refinery economics
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SEB Oil Market Report
Crude oilUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventoriesUS crude oil inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)
OOOOECDECDECDECD totaltotaltotaltotal industry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocksindustry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year average
2011
2012
c
2525
2550
2575
2600
2625
2650
2675
2700
2725
2750
2775
2800
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
2012
5 year average
OECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocksOECD Europe industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
OECD North America indOECD North America indOECD North America indOECD North America industry oil stocksustry oil stocksustry oil stocksustry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
1010
1020
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
2012
5 year average
1175
1200
1225
1250
1275
1300
1325
1350
1375
1400
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
2012
5 year average
OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocksOECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks(mb, monthly data)
OPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC productionOPEC production(kb/d, monthly data)
375
380
385
390
395
400
405
410
415
420
425
430
435440
445
450
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5 year range, top
5 year range, bottom
2012
5 year average
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
jan-0
8
mar-
08
ma
j-08
jul-08
sep-0
8
nov-0
8
jan-0
9
mar-
09
ma
j-09
jul-09
sep-0
9
nov-0
9
jan-1
0
mar-
10
ma
j-10
jul-10
sep-1
0
nov-1
0
jan-1
1
mar-
11
ma
j-11
jul-11
sep-1
1
nov-1
1
jan-1
2
OPEC-12 production
OPEC-11 production
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research
8/2/2019 SEBs oil market report: Gasoline boosting refinery economics
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SEB Oil Market Report
European oil product markets
Global refining economics continued to improve inMarch due to the impact of the closure during the pastyear of Atlantic basin capacity totalling around 1.0
mb/d, and relatively low global output resulting fromseasonal spring maintenance, especially in Asia whichis set to last until May. However, the latter is likely tobe at least partly offset by new capacity start-ups andearthquake damaged Japanese refineries coming backonline. The latest improvement in refinery economicsis mainly due to a sharp upturn in the gasoline crack. Atthe same time, cracks and prices for the rest of thebarrel were relatively stable in March. While refineryshutdowns in the Atlantic basin may continue in 2012,they will probably be offset by additional new Asiancapacity. Indeed, we expect the industry to continue toswitch from older developed market refineries to new
complex facilities in emerging markets, maintainingsurplus global capacity.
Light ends: Naphtha and gasoline prices have divergedsignificantly in recent weeks. Worldwide gasoline demand isstrong while inventories are low or falling. Further support isprovided by the switch to more expensive summer quality
gasoline and the approaching driving season. The naphthamarket is relatively well balanced with its gasoline
counterpart pulling naphtha into the blending pool, whilepetrochemical demand is relatively healthy. However, the
naphtha crack remains negative and European inventoriesare rising. The light end of the barrel looks likely to remain
well supported in the short-term.
Middle distillates: The unusually warm winter both inEurope and the US continues to affect middle distillatemarkets. Several tens of millions of barrels less than normalhave been consumed in the Atlantic basin. Still, both cracks
and prices are relatively firm and the overall inventorypicture fairly normal for the season. While jet fuel is still
limited by seasonal weakness, inventories remain slightlybelow the 5-year average which may provide additionalsupport when demand returns. The diesel market is quiet
but supported by solid non-European demand keepingarbitrage cargoes elsewhere. The gasoil market is weak in
Europe though heating oil is even weaker in the US,maintaining open bearish arbitrage barrel flows to Europe.
Heavy ends: The LS-HS differential continued to increasein March, driven both by weak HS and strong LS. The
European HS market is being adversely affected by the lackof ships available to transport surplus barrels eastbound
where demand is stronger, although it is supported byrefineries seeking alternatives to expensive crude oil. Theapproaching change from HS to LS gasoil in US and
Canadian waters (August 1), which is likely to switch ~200kb/d in demand, is probably an increasingly important
driver. In addition, Atlantic basin refinery shutdowns arehurting LS supply more than that of its HS counterpart.
European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lightightightight endendendend benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
Naphtha
Gasoline
European mEuropean mEuropean mEuropean middleiddleiddleiddle distillatedistillatedistillatedistillate benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
Jet fuel
Diesel 10 ppm
Gasoil 0.1%
EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil benchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarksbenchmarks($/t, daily closing)
350375400425450475500525550575600625650675700725750775800
jan-
10
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-
10
jul-10
aug-
10
sep-
10
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-
10
jan-
11
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-
11
jul-11
aug-
11
sep-
11
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-
11
jan-
12
feb
-12
mar-
12
High sulphur fuel oil (3.5%)
Low sulphur fuel oil (1.0%)
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
8/2/2019 SEBs oil market report: Gasoline boosting refinery economics
6/12
6
SEB Oil Market Report
Oil productsUS gUS gUS gUS gasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventoriesasoline and distillate inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)
US product benchmarksUS product benchmarksUS product benchmarksUS product benchmarks(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 5 year average
Gasoline 2012
Distillate fuel oil 5 year average
Distillate fuel oil 2012
180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330
340350360
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
Gasoline
Heating oil
US refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilizationUS refinery utilization(%, weekly data)
ICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil andICE Gasoil and European premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiumsEuropean premiums to Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoilto Gasoil($/t, daily closing)
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2007-2011 avg.
2012
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
ICE Gasoil 0.1% (left)
Jet fuel premium (right)Diesel 10 ppm premium (right)
EuropeanEuropeanEuropeanEuropean pppproductroductroductroduct crackscrackscrackscracks($/b, daily closing)
European lEuropean lEuropean lEuropean lowowowow ---- hhhhighighighigh sulphursulphursulphursulphur fuel oilfuel oilfuel oilfuel oil differentialdifferentialdifferentialdifferential($/t, daily closing)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1015
20
25
30
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
Naphtha GasolineJet fuel Gasoil 0.1%Low sulphur fuel oil High sulphur fuel oilDiesel 10 ppm
-15-10-505
101520253035404550
5560657075
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research
8/2/2019 SEBs oil market report: Gasoline boosting refinery economics
7/12
7
SEB Oil Market Report
Oil productsRegional 3Regional 3Regional 3Regional 3----2222----1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks1 cracks($/b, daily closing)
European naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocksEuropean naphtha stocks(kt, monthly data)
-6-4-202468
1012141618202224262830
32343638
jan-1
0
feb
-10
mar-
10
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
Asia (Minas)US (WTI)Europe (Brent)Persian Gulf (Dubai)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
European gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocksEuropean gasoline stocks(kt, monthly data)
European jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocksEuropean jet fuel stocks(kt, monthly data)
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
100
150
200
250
300350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
European gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocksEuropean gasoil stocks(kt, monthly data)
European fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocksEuropean fuel oil stocks(kt, monthly data)
1000110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230024002500260027002800290030003100
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
j f m a m j j a s o n d
4 year range, top
4 year range, bottom
2012
4 year average
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research
8/2/2019 SEBs oil market report: Gasoline boosting refinery economics
8/12
8
SEB Oil Market Report
Oil productsUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demandUS implied crude oil demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
US implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demandUS implied gasoline demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
13,5
13,8
14,0
14,3
14,5
14,8
15,0
15,3
15,5
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5y avg.
2011
2012
8,5
8,7
8,9
9,1
9,3
9,5
9,7
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5y avg.
2011
2012
US implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demandUS implied distillate demand(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkGasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York($/t, daily closing)
4,0
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
5,0
5,2
5,4
5,6
j f m a m j j a s o n d
5y avg.
2011
2012
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New YorkMiddle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York($/t, daily closing)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
Heating oil/Gasoil
Jet fuel/Kerosene
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research
8/2/2019 SEBs oil market report: Gasoline boosting refinery economics
9/12
9
SEB Oil Market Report
Related energy marketsUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas priceUS natural gas price(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
UKUKUKUK natural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas pricenatural gas price(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90$/MMBtu (left axis)
GBp/therm (right axis)
Nordic power priceNordic power priceNordic power priceNordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
Continental power priceContinental power priceContinental power priceContinental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
EUA priceEUA priceEUA priceEUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
CoalCoalCoalCoal pricepricepriceprice(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115120
125
130
135
apr-
10
ma
j-10
jun-1
0
jul-10
aug-1
0
sep-1
0
okt-10
nov-1
0
dec-1
0
jan-1
1
feb
-11
mar-
11
apr-
11
ma
j-11
jun-1
1
jul-11
aug-1
1
sep-1
1
okt-11
nov-1
1
dec-1
1
jan-1
2
feb
-12
mar-
12
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB C ommodity Research
8/2/2019 SEBs oil market report: Gasoline boosting refinery economics
10/12
10
SEB Oil Market Report
Market indicatorsMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI WorldMSCI World equity market indexequity market indexequity market indexequity market index(weekly closing)
UBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCIUBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market indexcommodity market index(price index, weekly closing)
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
JPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMIJPM global manufacturing PMI(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
Regional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:sRegional PMI:s(monthly data)
32
34
36
3840
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
mar-
06
jun-0
6
sep-0
6
dec-0
6
mar-
07
jun-0
7
sep-0
7
dec-0
7
mar-
08
jun-0
8
sep-0
8
dec-0
8
mar-
09
jun-0
9
sep-0
9
dec-0
9
mar-
10
jun-1
0
sep-1
0
dec-1
0
mar-
11
jun-1
1
sep-1
1
dec-1
1
mar-
12
US
Eurozone
China
Reference
Regional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial productionRegional industrial production growthgrowthgrowthgrowth(%, y/y, monthly data)
OECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicatorsOECD composite leading indicators(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
mar-
06
jun-0
6
sep-0
6
dec-0
6
mar-
07
jun-0
7
sep-0
7
dec-0
7
mar-
08
jun-0
8
sep-0
8
dec-0
8
mar-
09
jun-0
9
sep-0
9
dec-0
9
mar-
10
jun-1
0
sep-1
0
dec-1
0
mar-
11
jun-1
1
sep-1
1
dec-1
1
US
EurozoneChina
8889
9091
92
93
94
9596
9798
99
100101
102103
104105
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
China
Eurozone
OECD
USA
Reference
Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research
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SEB Oil Market Report
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SEB Commodity Research
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity [email protected]
+47 9248 9230
Filip Petersson, Commodity [email protected]
+46 8 506 230 47
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