• Name: Simon McGree• Title: Senior Climatologist• Organisation: COSPPac-BoM

Second Pacific Islands Climate Outlook ForumPICOF-2

“What was different from a 'normal' El Niño”“How accurate were the rainfall prediction models”

El Niño year the event begins

El Niño T+1 year after the eventbegins

Areas with significantly wetter (green) or drier (orange) conditions during El Niño events (left) and La Niña (right) for year T (top) and year T+1 (lower) (Smith et al. 2008)

ENSO relationship with Pacific rainfall

Drought begins in Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and Niuelong before 2015-16 El Niño

Drought begins in Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and Niuelong before 2015-16 El Niño

Warm SST anomalies in NINO 3, 4, 3.4 going back to mid-2014

SPCZ and ITCZ Displacement in early2015

Good model skill when we need it most

Statistical models still have value