Ad-Hoc Policy Commissions in the Senate

MPSA 2013

Second Street Gangs

Kristen Coopie Allen Zachary James Auter

Ian Palmer CookUniversity of Pittsburgh

Jennifer Nicoll VictorGeorge Mason University

Bipartisan, ad-hoc, policy-specific coalitions with select membership, attempting to find a solution to a policy

problem

FIRST, OUR DEFINITION

RECENT NOTABLE GANGS: THE GANG OF 14

Worked to avert “nuclear option” on Senate filibuster in 2005

GANG OF 8, IMMIGRATION, AGAIN

Policy gangs are a preference discovery and aggregation mechanism Committees have failed to produce policy agreeable to the whole Senate

On contentious issues, committees may be representative of the chamber

Senators from outside the committees will have information about the chamber

But this does not explain why Senators may join

GANGS SIDESTEP THE COMMITTEE STRUCTURE (AND ALL ITS

PROBLEMS)

Gangs offer senators substantive & strategic advantage to policy negotiation

Greater policy expertise in relevant policy area and who have many connections to other senators on a given topic Operationalizing connectedness: Eigenvector Centrality in

Senate committee network

H1: Senators more central in the committee membership network are more likely to join a policy gang.

THEORY AND HYPOTHESES: CONNECTIONS TO OTHER

SENATORS

Major gangs have had even numbers, and not by chance

Gangs have no chairs doled out by party leadership as rewards or favors Gathering information on the other party’s preferences

requires collaborating on an even playing field A stalled policy issue that has been stalled and

gained enough prominence that a gang has formed to confront it sheds doubt on the possibility of the committee members representing the full range of the chamber’s views

H2: Ideological moderates are more likely to join gangs than ideological extremists.

THEORY AND HYPOTHESES:BIPARTISANSHIP

Publicity for gang membership has both positive and negative consequences

Party control over assets necessary for running in an election: breaking from the party line could be costly

But cost would be lessened the more secure the senator is in her seat

H3: The greater a senator’s vote share in their most recent reelection, the greater their likelihood of joining a gang.

H4: The more terms a senator has served, the more likely the senator is to join a gang.

THEORY AND HYPOTHESES: COSTS OF MEMBERSHIP

DV: Did a Senator join a gang or not? Pooled by Congressional session; not over time

Employ Rare Events Logit to account for small ratio of gang members in each Congress

Robust standard errorsPlot Predicted probability of joining gang

DATA AND METHODS

GANG OF 14

RESULTS

0.2

.4.6

.81

Pred

icte

d Pr

obab

ility

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Absolute Value of Senator Nominate Scores

Probability of Joining Gang Lower 95% CIUpper 95% CI

Probability of Joining Gang of 14 across Increasing Ideological Extremism

GANG OF 12 AND 20

RESULTS

0.2

.4.6

.8Pr

edic

ted

Prob

abili

ty

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Absolute Value of Senator Nominate Scores

Probability of Joining Gang Lower 95% CIUpper 95% CI

Probability of Joining 110th Congress Gang across Increasing Ideological Extremism

RESULTS

RESULTS

0.2

.4.6

.81

Pred

icte

d Pr

obab

ility

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Margin of Victory in Previous Election

Probability of Joining Gang Lower 95% CIUpper 95% CI

Probability of Joining Gang of 6 across Increasing Electoral Security

Encouraging, but not confirmatory, results

Leaves us on the cusp of a decision, and we’re seeking feedback

Two alternatives, though not mutually exclusive in the long run

DISCUSSION

Need to increase the sample size by expanding the range of Congresses

Gather richer information on the gang members Employment history, previous shared committee

posts

Explore extensions: Use gang membership as an explanatory variable for

electoral success

1: EXPAND THE DATA AND ANALYSIS

More explicitly American Political Development-like

Expand the historical discussion of the gangs, include a wider range of examples, even when not specifically called “Gangs”

Pose hypotheses and expectations, but not challenges for study and data gathering

Highlight importance to policy issues

2: ENRICH CASES, DEMONSTRATE IMPORTANCE

GANG OF 14(PLAIN: COMMITTEE, BOLD: SUBCOMMITTEE, ITALIC: GANG)

GANG OF 12(PLAIN: COMMITTEE, BOLD: SUBCOMMITTEE, ITALIC: GANG)

GANG OF 6(PLAIN: COMMITTEE , BOLD: SUBCOMMITTEE, ITALIC:

GANG)