Securing our nuclear future
Presented to:
University of Western Ontario
Presented by:
Duncan Hawthorne
President & Chief Executive Officer
September 28, 2006
2
Global Energy Factors
• Increase in worldwide demand.
• Security of supply concerns
• Aging infrastructure
• Market designs changing
• Greater recognition of environmental concerns
• Society preference for renewables… but changing !!!!
Given this common set of global energy factors the need
for new nuclear is clear. For this reason, the debate over new
nuclear is taking place throughout the world.
3
Global Electricity Demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2002 2010 2015 2020 2025
*Billion Kilowatthours
By 2025 electricity
consumption from
emerging
economies will
increase by over
250%.
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Solar Wind Hydro Gas Nuclear Coal
Source: Ipsos-Reid, 2005.
Public Opinion
5
“There is no sensible alternative to
nuclear power if we are to sustain
civilization.”
James Lovelock, preeminent
world leader in the development
of environmental consciousness
6
Nuclear in the world today
• There 440 commercial nuclear power reactors operating
in 31 countries, with over 364,000 MWe of total
capacity.
• These units supply 16% of the world's electricity, as
base-load power, and their efficiency is increasing.
• 56 countries operate a total of 284 research reactors.
The vast majority of these commercial nuclear power reactors will
be reaching their end of life in the next 2 decades and will require
either refurbishment or replacement.
7
Reactors Globally
441Total
4Japan, France, RussiaFast Neutron Reactor (FBR)
12RussiaLight Water Graphite Reactor (RBMK)
40Canada, China, RomaniaHeavy Water Reactor (CANDU)
23United KingdomGas-cooled Reactor (Magnox & AGR)
94United States, Japan, SwedenBoiling Water Reactor (BWR)
268United States, France, Japan,
Russia
Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)
NumberMain CountriesType
8
New Reactors Globally
6China, India, RomaniaHeavy Water Reactor (CANDU/PHWR)
2ChinaBoiling Water Reactor (BWR)
21China, India, Russia, Japan,
Finland, Pakistan
Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)
NumberMain CountriesType
Approximately 30 power reactors are being constructed in 11 countries:
9
7%
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56%
3%
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15%
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31%
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79%
31%
37%
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49%
20%19%
0%
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10%
20%
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40%
50%
60%
70%
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11
Performance of nuclear plants worldwide
78.4 78.4
83.5
91.1
79.3
67.4
73.8 71.6
87.3
77.3 77.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
W orld W ide CANADA CHINA FINLAND FRANCE INDIA JAPAN RUSSIAN
FEDERATION
SW ITZERLAND UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA
Lifetime Unit Capability Factor (until 2005)
12
Opportunities
USAUSA
"A secure energy future for
America must include more
nuclear power."
President George W. Bush
CanadaCanada
"Nuclear power provides reliable
baseload power and has
historically been the backbone of
Ontario’s energy system."
Energy Minister Dwight Duncan
13
Opportunities
FinlandFinland
OlkiluotoOlkiluoto--33
RussiaRussia
10 GW of new 10 GW of new
nuclear by 2020nuclear by 2020
ChinaChina
30 new reactors 30 new reactors
by 2020by 2020
FranceFrance
National Debate National Debate
on new buildon new build
UKUK
““Back on the Back on the
agenda with a agenda with a
vengeancevengeance””
PM Tony BlairPM Tony Blair
New Entrants
Venezuela
Considering nuclear
Venezuela
Considering nuclear
Vietnam
Announced
intention to build
Vietnam
Announced
intention to build
Indonesia
Considering
nuclear
Indonesia
Considering
nuclear
North Korea
Proliferation concerns
North Korea
Proliferation concernsIran
Proliferation concerns
Iran
Proliferation concerns
Turkey
As many as five plants
Turkey
As many as five plants
Nigeria
Diversify Energy Mix With
Nuclear
Nigeria
Diversify Energy Mix With
Nuclear
Slovenia
Slovenia
Exploring New Build
Slovenia
Exploring New Build
15
Nuclear’s Market Share in Canada Today
Nuclear
15%
Gas
3%
Renewable
1%
Coal
22%
Hydro
59%
Source: Canadian Nuclear Association
New
Brunsw ick
5%
Ontario
90%
Quebec
5%
16
The need to plan ahead
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Ja
n-
01
Ja
n-
02
Ja
n-
03
Ja
n-
04
Ja
n-
05
Ja
n-
06
Ja
n-
07
Ja
n-
08
Ja
n-
09
Ja
n-
10
Ja
n-
11
Ja
n-
12
Ja
n-
13
Ja
n-
14
Ja
n-
15
Ja
n-
16
Ja
n-
17
Ja
n-
18
Ja
n-
19
Ja
n-
20
Ja
n-
21
Ja
n-
22
Ja
n-
23
Ja
n-
24
Ja
n-
25
C
ap
ac
ity
(M
W
)
Operating Capacity Units 1,2 and 3 Capacity when Refurbished
New Build or
Bruce B refurbishment
The output profile of the Bruce site is the same as many
commercial nuclear facilities throughout the world
17
Ontario’s Energy Supply Mix - 2005
Natural Gas
7%
Coal
19%
Nuclear
51%
Hydro/Renewables
23%
18
Ontario’s Supply Mix – Directive to OPA
Natural
Gas/Co-gen,
9,400
Gasification,
250
Conservation,
6,300
Nuclear,
14,000
Renewables,
15,700
• Long-term coal replacement
through conservation and
renewables.
• Increase in gas to meet growing
p
