Segregation and

integration in the UKLudi Simpson

Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey

Research, University of Manchester

Politics and demographyASEN conference, LSE September 29-30 2006

www.ccsr.ac.uk/staff/ludi/race.htmlClaims and evidence

• “Whites will soon become a minority in Birmingham and other major British cities, posing a critical challenge to social stability, Britain’s race relations watchdog has warned.

• “The warning comes as government statistics show that white and ethnic minority communities are becoming increasingly segregated by growing population movement and immigration.

• “Phillips will highlight the issue this week at a conference in Leicester, which the CRE predicts will become a plural city by 2011, with the others [Birmingham, Oldham and Bradford] crossing the threshold by 2016.”

Sunday Times, March 19th 2006, David Leppard

N o t t r

u e!

Population dynamics, England• Growth of Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani and

Bangladeshi populations is more through natural growth (reproduction) than immigration, 1991-2001

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

African

Bangladeshi

Pakistani

Chinese

Indian

White

CaribbeanBlack: natural change (excess of births over deaths).

Grey: Net migration.

Source: Williamson (2003)

Natural change 1991-2001Total persons White Black Indian Pak’ni B’shi Other

Asian settlement 1991 5164 -1158 -3 77 3410 2527 314Asian growth 91-01 2442 -812 17 43 2160 583 448Small Asian growth 795 302 9 3 233 122 126Other areas 885 382 5 14 168 46 269

Net migration 1991-2001Total persons White Black Indian Pak’ni B’shi Other

Asian settlement 1991 -4188 -4454 -300 -358 -211 741 392Asian growth 91-01 -3481 -6599 -164 -56 1743 1037 555Small Asian growth 414 -494 -54 9 508 258 185Other areas -3253 -3640 -105 -4 168 53 270

www.ccsr.ac.uk/research/egpd.htm

Oldham and Rochdale, Migration 1991-2001

www.ccsr.ac.uk/research/migseg/index.html Mixing, growth and migration

More mixed wards?

(10% each White and Others)

Natural growth or immigration?

(Non-White in one year)

Coloured flight? (Net migration in UK from the least White

ward in one year)

1991 2001 Births Immig White Other

Birmingham 18 27 1,411 718 786 out 1,320 out

Coventry 6 11 208 103 17 out 346 out

Dudley 4 5 67 38 63 out 40 out

Sandwell 10 18 137 67 78 out 84 out

Stoke-on-Trent UA 1 3 55 91 476 in 7 out

Telford & Wrekin UA 2 4 16 12 43 in 11 out

Walsall 7 8 180 52 99 out 114 out

Wolverhampton 13 17 100 66 3 in 139 out

East Staffs 5 4 41 21 58 out 8 out

www.ccsr.ac.uk->working papers-> “Ghettos of the mind…”

Indices of segregationIndex of dissimilarity

(evenness)Index of isolation

(exposure)

1991 2001 1991 2001

White 61.4 58.8 95.3 93.5

Caribbean 68.9 67 7.6 7.3

African 71.1 70.6 4.3 8.2

Indian 65.3 62.1 15.6 15.5

Pakistani 75.1 71.7 13.9 17.4

Bangladeshi 74.2 71.6 10.9 13.8

Chinese 42.2 41.3 0.8 1.2

N of polarised enclaves 8 8

Indices of movement and diversity

Movement 1991 2001

Migration Dispersal Index (net % moving from Non-White areas) White 2.0

All others 1.4

Migration Dispersal Index (net % moving from White areas) White -0.1

All others -1.1

Diversity 1991 2001

% Mixed areas (with 10% each of White and other) 9 12

Standardised Reciprocal Diversity Index 1.07 1.78

http://asp.ccsr.ac.uk/dwp Those who move out of inner areas are better off than

those who stay, but big inequalities remain

Male unemployment rate at age 25 and older, 2001 Census. Ethnic group and ethnic composition

England & Wales

Diverse areas:

less than 50%

White

Mixed areas:

between 50% and 87%

White

Unmixed areas: more than 87%

White

White Briton 5% 8% 5% 4%

ALL PEOPLE 5% 10% 6% 4% Chinese 5% 8% 5% 4%

Indian 5% 7% 5% 3% Pakistani 12% 14% 12% 9%

Caribbean 13% 16% 13% 8% African 14% 16% 14% 8%

Bangladeshi 16% 21% 13% 7%

Other research

• Greater London Authority Nov 05– Simpson’s Diversity Index: greater diversity over time– Polarised enclaves: fewer in 2001 than 1991– Ghettos: none

• Poulsen (Johnston and Forrest) Sept 05– Index of isolation: increased– Ghettos: none

• Phillips, survey-based Society and Space 05– Dispersal in fact and in aspirations of young Asian families

• Dorling and Rees 2002, and many others– Social geography becoming more polarised

• Rees, 2005 for Joseph Rowntree Foundation

What’s round the corner? and what can be done about it?

• More Black and Asian areas, with probably higher proportions of Black and Asian residents– Indices of ‘isolation’ will go up for Asian populations– Not policy sensitive: we don’t ask people not to have

children• More dispersal to other areas: diversity and

mixing; a residential mosaic– Increase labour market equality and economic

prosperity– Remove barriers in the housing market– The safety and comfort of potential new areas outside

settlement areas

What’s round the corner? and what can be done about it?

• Fear– at top and bottom

• Community cohesion / CRE policies for equality, interaction and participation

• View clusters as a means to integration, not its antithesis

• Reduce inflammatory views of Black areas• New thinking on the meaning of integration

and segregation