Seignorage, Money Supply and Inflation

8/14/2019 Seignorage, Money Supply and Inflation

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Chapter 8

Seignorage, Money Supply and Inflation

A monetary system is like some internal organ; it should not beallowed to take up very much of ones thought when it goes

right, but it needs a great deal of attention when it goes wrong.

[ D. H. Robertson]

Since the beginning of 1990s many developing countries had experienced extreme

instability in the exchange rate of their domestic currency. Though some could have comeout with stability of their currency regime, many suffered for a long time. This instability

in the financial sector has a profound effect on the growth and stability of the real sectorof the economy. This chapter will explore all these aspects in greater detail.Money in the modern world is a fiat paper currency as its intrinsic value depends on the

legal guarantee of the sovereign government. By issuing paper currency the government

earns income that is known as seignorage in the monetary theory. Seignorage ( SNG) is

defined in the literature as:

. a duty levied on the coinage of money for the purpose of covering the expenses of

minting , and as a source of revenue to the crown, claimed by the sovereign by virtue of

his prerogative.

[ McKinnon, 1979: p. 283]

According to Professor S. Black (1998), seignorage is the excess of the face value over

the cost of production of the fiat money. The rationale why the issuer should get the

seigorage is that the minting of money makes its supply limited and for the resultinglimited supply money yields a rent that should go toseigneur.

One interesting aspect of SNG is that it remained more or less absent during theera when money meant metallic coins, either silver or gold. The reason was obvious as

the difference between the face value of the coin and the cost of production including the

cost of the metal was not significant. This prevented the rulers to issue reserve money for

the sake of reaping the SNG. The invention of paper money facilitated the process assuch type of money could be released in the economy with a minimum cost.

During the period of metallic currency, principal gain from SNG was the premiumor the commission charged when the coins were first released to the economy. Once the

money was released, coins were to be maintained at a cost for its storage and transport.

Even coins used to lose its weight through wear and tear leading to the situation that facevalue of the coin became less than the metal value.

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During the regime of metallic coin, excess supply of money leading to inflation

should be a rare phenomenon as that would necessitate a large supply of the metal at a

relatively less cost. Inflation in a commodity money situation may happen only when thecommodity used in the minting of coins becomes excess in supply and also cost of

minting of coins becomes less. Both are unlikely events and so we see a long period of

price stability during this phase of history. But once paper money came into circulation,these commodities, like gold and silver, were released for other social use. In a sense the

introduction of paper money brought huge amount of social savings in the society.

But the introduction of paper brought huge advantage to the governments as they

found in it larger scope of marshalling resources from the economy by giving paper

money, which is very cheap to produce. This is the disadvantage of fiat money as a

system. The intrinsic value of paper money depends on strict control on its supply and thelegal backing of the government. But its cheapness leads to its abuse by the issuer and

then it loses its credibility. In this perspective J.M. Keynes observed:

There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of Society than to

debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the

side of destruction..

[ Keynes, 1923; p. 80 ]

We have observed that paper money, also called fiat money, has no intrinsic value. Fiatmoney can retain its market perceived value if asset- holders remain confident that its

rate of supply to the economy will remain strictly controlled. This remains true because

the demand for paper money is derived from how readily it is accepted rather than how

fully it is backed. This has been proved many a time through historical events and morerecently it is revealed in the events of Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, Russia, Brazil

and Argentina. The governments of these countries fully backed their currencies. In spite

of that the individuals and institutions that were holding monetary instrumentsdenominated in these currencies lost confidence in the credibility of the governments and

substituted away from these financial instruments. The public perception was found true

when it was revealed that the central banks of these countries were unable to purchase thedomestic currencies at prices fixed by them. That led to large scale devaluation of these

currencies as were seen in cases of Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah, Russian rouble, and

Brazilian real etc.

One important element common in all the cases as stated above is that the

governments of these countries tried to finance their budget deficits by the seignorage

reaped through the increase in the supply of money. This makes SNG inter-related to

budget deficit and inflation. We are to discuss this aspect.

8.1. Measurement of Seignorage

The common measure of SNG is the real rent from issuing reserve money, and it

is defined as currency in circulation plus reserve of the bank held by the central bank. Thereal rent is computed as the change in the reserve money divided by the price level. This

we can write:

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SNG = d M / P Equation 8.1

Here d denotes change in the sense of differential calculus, M the reserve money as

defined and P the price level. Since the differential d (M/P) can be expanded as;

d( M/ P ) = [ P . dM M . dP ] / P2 = d M / P ( M /P ) . d P / P,

therefore,dM /P = d ( M/P) + ( M / P ) . . Equation 8.2

where

= dP / P i.e., rate of inflation.

Combining Equations (8. 1) and ( 8. 2) , we can write,

SNG = d ( M / P ) + . ( M / P ) Equation 8. 3

The SNG has two components. The first term on the right is the change in the

real reserve money. It measures the increasing command over the commodities availableto the government through ts release of additional reserve money. The second term is the

inflation tax that the authority collects from the holders of fiat money as the extent to

which inflation erodes the intrinsic value (purchasing power) of the fiat money held by

the public. It measures the capital loss suffered by the holders of paper money as pricelevel changes. One interesting aspect of fiat money is that once the asset holders start

thinking that the supply of fiat money is far in excess than what is warranted, the newly

issued money debases the existing money in circulation. This is equivalent to the capitalloss of the holders of the fiat money, and the first term is a measure of that as it indicates

the change in the real reserve money.

8.2. Broader Measure of Seignorage

A rapid expansion of reserve money and hence money supply can lead to a gain to

the government in the form of inflation tax and seignorage, and it may lead to a cost as

the holders of existing money stock think it as a form of capital loss. This capital gains or

losses induced by a rapid expansion of money supply can be measured by making theconcept of seignorage a bit broader. This can be pursued by using the stylized set of

accounts for the monetary authority that McKinnon used. According to McKinnon

(1979), total assets consists of money reserves and investment denoted by I and totalliabilities consists of deposits, say D. From this SNG is computed as

SNG = r. I r* D C Equation 8. 4

Where, r = open market rate of interest on investment

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r* = deposit rate of interest on holding of international currency

C = cost of servicing the existing stock of money

One implication of this McKinnon identity is that if the government has large externalliability ( that makes a negative I, or I < 0 ), it will lose seignorage. This is an interesting

result as extended money creation by the government leads to loss of revenue on account

of SNG. We will see later more on this.

Professor M.J.M. Neumann (1992) has deduced a formula of extended seignorage

(ESN) by using a similar format. His identity is:

ESN = SNG + ( i D + i* F + GR )/ P Equation ( 8.5)

Where, ESN = extended seignorage

SNG = seignorage as defined above

i = interest rate on the stock of private debt ( D ) held by the monetary authority

i* = interest rate on official foreign loan made by the monetary authority

F = amount of foreign loan of the authority

P = consumer price level

GR = unrealized capital gains on assets

These equations put together a system that links inflation, seignorage, exchangerate movements, interest rate, fiscal deficit and some other macro variables. We can show

the link between seignorage and exchange rate movements through a simplified version

of monetary authoritys accounts. Whenever there is changes in the balance sheet of themonetary authority, reserve money changes. Put in symbols, change in the reserve money

(d M) is the sum of the changes in the net foreign assets ( d F), changes in the net

domestic credit ( d D) and change in other items ( dZ). We can write,

dM =d F + d D + dZ Equation 8. 6

where Z = proxy for other items, or parameters that influence macro variables in theeconomy.

Dividing through by the price level P, we write

dM / P = dF / P + d D / P + dZ / P Equation 8.7

Similar to Equation ( 8.2), we can manipulate

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d( F/P) = dF /P (F/ P ). dP /P, or,

dF/ P = d( F/P ) + . ( F/ P) Equation (8.8)

Similarly,dD / P = d( D / P) + .( D /P) Equation (8.9)

and, dZ /P = d( Z /P) + .( Z /P) Equation (8. 10)

Combining Equation (8.7) to ( 8.10) we can write,

dM /P = d( F /P) + . (F /P) + d( D /P) + . (D /P) + d( Z/P )+ .( Z /P)

Equation (8.11)

We can now interpret equation (8.11). We see that the generation of SNG depends onfactors that change net foreign assets, net domestic assets and net change of other items

(Z) being a proxy of some macro variables, along with rate of inflation and the extent thelatter affects the parameters as mentioned.

8.3. Seignorage and Exchange Rate

Net foreign asset F can be written as

F = e . F* , Equation 8.12

When, F* = dollar value of foreign assets, ande = exchange rate of domestic currency.

Expanding the expression we can write,

dF = de. F* + e. dF* ,

or after a little manipulation , we get

dF / P = [ de /e + dF* /F* ]. F /P

Equation (8. 13)

When money supply is increasing rapidly, both the exchange rate ( e) and the dollar value

of foreign liabilities will increase. This means both de and dF* will be positive. For a

highly indebted country, net foreign asset ( F /P) will be negative and that makes thevalue of the right hand side of [ 8.13] negative.

When net foreign assets of the monetary authority are large and negative, the effects of

exchange rate changes [ as measured by dF/ P in equation 8.13 ] subtract in a major

way from the generation of SNG as in Equation 8.11. So a country with huge foreign

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liability and high inflation is caught in a bind as further money creation leads to a

negative seignorage and more money creation is needed to compensate the latter. This

aspect will be clear if we analyze the cases of two highly indebted countries, Russia andZambia:

Table: Seignorage and its Components: year 1997

Country dM /P dF/P dD /P F* a**b**

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Russia 1.76 0.49 1.27 1.85 0.10 0.36

Zambia 1.22 -- 0.15 1.36 - 28.6 - 2.27 1.92

Note: a** = (de /e). F /P, b** = (df /f ). F /P

Source: International Financial Statistics, IMF, March, 1999.

Column 4 shows direct gains from seignorage to GDP. Its value becomes low when the

growth of reserve money becomes fast. In case of Zambia, growth of money supply

became very high, that reduces the value of the gains from seignorage to GDP.In column 3, the value shows the effects of exchange rate changes. When net foreign

assets of monetary authority are large and negative( liability ), the effects of exchange

rate changes subtract in a major way from the generation of seignorage. Here the data ofZambia are striking as the figure is negative.

8.4. Dynamic Effects

Some economists prefer the study of the dynamic effects of reserve money

changes. In the developed countries the growth of reserve money is stable and budgetdeficit does not lead to money creation. That leads to the discussion of seignorage in

terms of a steady state equilibrium. But critics point out that in the developing

countries the growth of the reserve money is volatile and rapid. Even the economists haveemphasized the existence of a Laffer Curve [named after Professor Laffer showing

retrograde relation between rate of tax and tax revenue ] relating seignorage to rate of

inflation and growth of reserve money in the perspective of hyper-inflation. The idea boils down to the existence of an optimum seignorage point and whether a country

makes a transition back to optimum point once it crosses the limit. Economists argue that

this transition is very important for the highly indebted countries that have movedbeyond their optimum international credit limits. They find themselves in a dilemma ----they are caught in a spiral of accelerating inflation as they try to gain access to the

increasing amount of foreign exchange needed to meet the debt service obligations. As

the rate of reserve money creation increases, the task of meeting foreign obligationsbecomes increasingly difficult.

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From the theoretical exercise above we can write briefly the policy implications

faced by the highly indebted countries today.

The countries that face twin problems of a large amount of foreign debt and itsservicing obligations and a potential high inflation may have the temptation of servicing

the foreign debt obligation by the creation of reserve money and appropriating the

seignorage. But this boils down to the large scale debasement of the domestic currencyand hyper inflation. In such a situation the country can better seek a rescheduling of debt

obligation even if that means a default and adverse international repercussions.

8.5. Cost of Seignorage

Some developing countries are prone to maximize revenue from seignorage, andin the process these countries face trouble in unstable currency. There is also a cost of

seignorage and that can be placed as follows.

The important cost of SNG is the resource cost of printing, issuing, storing and

maintaining the stock of fiat money. Sometimes countries facing very high inflation areto import large stock of printed currency at a substantial cost.

Another cost of SNG is the inflation tax imposed on the economy as hyper-inflation sets in. The authority may collect resources through inflation tax, may even

facilitate a desirable redistribution of income, but this also leads to currency substitution

and a capital loss on fixed- income liabilities.

The literature has noted that through currency substitution and asset substitution

the public can reduce their holdings of financial instruments denominated in domestic

currency. The asset holders in unstable economies having track record of high inflationhave become efficient in using this method and this way they insulate their assets from

the negative effects of monetary disruptions. This situation is common in countries like

Russia, Argentina, Peru , Bolivia, Serbia and some others.A country with a large external debt faces capital loss when hyperinflation

becomes chronic. A commitment to repay foreign liability is associated with several risks.

International interest rates may increase, and that will increase the cost of debt. Thecountry faces same effects when the domestic currency depreciates. While the first

increases the cost in foreign exchange, the second increases the cost in domestic

currency.

8.6. Conclusion

The monetary authority enjoys seignorage and inflation tax through the release of

reserve money. So long the latter maintains an equilibrium relation with the countrys

GDP and other macro parameters, the economy faces no problem. Instead the society as awhole is benefited by the positive externality of the existence of money as an institution.

Apart from that the control of reserve money gives several benefits to the authority and

these are: (i) accrual of monopoly rents due to the difference of yields on official

liabilities, and (ii), real gains to the issuers of financial instruments.

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The authority gets the monopoly rents as the official financial instruments held by the

private sector at rates below the market rates. One example is the reserve requirements of

banks.The authority issues fixed coupon bonds and when inflation continues due to

rapid increase of reserve money, the real value of these bonds are deflated. The

difference between the face value of the bond and the real value is the gain to the issuer.Does sovereign money matter? Or, is it a desirable thing in the global scene that some

190 plus independent nations should have their own sovereign currencies? These are a bit

complex questions. In the above we get the theoretical backdrop about the cost andbenefit of the issuance of reserve money, and now we are in a position to pursue this issue

in the next chapter.

Web Sources::

www.standardandpoors.com

This is the web site of Standard and Poors. It provides data on macro parameters of many

countries.

www.rbi.org.com

This web site is of Reserve Bank of India. It provides wide range of information aboutthe economy of India.

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Seignorage, Money Supply and Inflation