SENSEMaking! KM in a Hostile Environment October 24, 2001CC: Wizdom Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved Dennis E. Wisnosky CCRP Sensemaking Symposium October

October 24, 2001 CC: Wizdom Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved

SENSEMaking! KM in a Hostile Environment

Dennis E. Wisnosky

CCRP Sensemaking Symposium

October 24, 2001

President, Wizdom Systems, Inc.

[email protected]

630-240-6910



About Wizdom

History: Established 1986 - Naperville, Illinois Offices: Chicago, DC & Los Angeles Business Areas

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· Identification/Significance of the Problem · Complexity involves non-computational processes · Reality is simpler than models · Embedded KM/DSS have systemic faults · Automation works but not without people

Examples of how Sensemaking can be embedded into hostile environments

·

Presentation Outline



• Identification/Significance of the Problem

· Core Problem: Complexity involves non-computational processes

· Reality is simpler than models

· Embedded KM/DSS have systemic faults · Automation works but not without people





Knowledge Observations

Sensemaking

Identification/Significance of the Problem




“Sensemaking is about evaluating a situation, and deciding if it is real, and what to do about it”. - Wisnosky 2000



Commercial aviation

Studies of sensemaking

Computers Collide




Commercial aviation pilots flying "glass cockpit" aircraft such as the MD-80 report that in critical phases of flight (typically final approach) they are busier "flying the computer" then they are flying the aircraft. In some cases this reliance on flight automation appears to have contributed to a loss of situational awareness and subsequent disaster (Perez 1998). "Trapped in the Net - The Unanticipated Consequences of Computerization" and concludes with the question, "What if we can't turn them off?" Studies of sensemaking (Weick 1995) have shown that effective action (i.e., winning) is dependent not on complete or perfect information, but on information that is adequate to make sense of the situation. When sensemaking collapses (Weick 1990), the results can be disastrous, for example: Two 747s collide on the ground in Tenerife because the pilots could not make sense of a confusing situation.




Computers – Collide: The Australian Air Force fools the US Navy into sending intercepting Fighters in the wrong direction (Network Centric Warfare 1999).

Computers – Collide: Supply chains are “optimized” to the longest process. The Automotive Industry Action Group (AIAG), in its celebrated Manufacturing Assembly Pilot (MAP) project, showed that enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems often took the path of least resistance in production planning. In other words, the weakest link in the supply chain set the timing for all events, even though this made no sense. Instead of looking for alternate paths or negotiating, the computers accepted the worst case and planned accordingly.




Before After

React

Know What

Predict

Know Why

Act




•AIAG Manufacturing Assembly Pilot (MAP) Project

BEFORE

AFTER




· Identification/Significance of the Problem · Core Problem: Complexity involves

non-computational processes · Reality is simpler than models






Sensemaking in Organizations – Weick“Illusions of accuracy can be created if people

avoid comparison…, but in a dynamic, competitive, changing environment, illusions of accuracy are short lived, and they fall apart without warning. Reliance on a single, uncontradicted data source can give people a feeling of omniscience, but because those data are flawed in unrecognized ways, they lead to nonadaptive action.”

Complexity involves non-computational processes



• A sensemaking framework weaves facts and events into a tapestry of useful patterns.

• Agent based computing aggregates informational bits and points the users to potential coherent organizations of information.

• A reinforcement-learning paradigm allows the user to make decisions about what organizational relationship is actually useful in a specific context.

• The user validates some patterns of information organization over others.

Sensemaking KM in a Hostile Environment – Wisnosky

Complexity involves non-computational processes




non-computational processes · Reality is simpler than models · Embedded KM/DSS have systemic faults · Automation works but not without people





Corollary Point: Beware of Claude Shannon.

ITP Convenes

07/17/99

Con Ops Evolves

09/30/99

Complete Design

12/31/99

Implementation Begins

01/02/00

New Organization

Phased Implementation

07/10/00

Internal Process Model Internal Process Flow Model

Reality is simpler than models




non-computational processes · Reality is simpler than models






Embedded KM/DSS have systemic faults

• Perrow (1984) uses the Three Mile Island nuclear incident as an example of how a tightly coupled, complex system began to react in unpredictable ways, exceeding the sensemaking capabilities of the

operators. • An Airline Captain directs his AC to fly directly into a

mountain. Another one flies into the ocean.









Automation works but not without people

Polling of computerized systems is necessary but not sufficient. It must be integrated with polling of experts which is also necessary but not sufficient.

Sensemaking requires refinement of classical knowledge engineering into an agile information routing and retrieval paradigm. Much of the work is done behind the scenes in the preparation of conceptual aids and knowledge taxonomies. This knowledge engineering process is expert intensive.

Knowledge engineer and process modeling type workers are required to do specialized work. Computerized systems must be integrated with humans (and their agents) in real time.



Corollary Point: Really Beware of Claude Shannon.

S p eca l A ss is tan t

W orker

W orker

W orker

W orker

W orker

W orker

W orker

W orker

W orker

W orker

M id d le M an ag er

B ig B oss

B ig B ig B oss

Everyone knows his place There is no place

Automation works but not without people










For processing incomplete, unstructured, and unpredicted data the human brain is far more powerful than any computer. An iterative human-in-the-loop computerization strategy - Sensemaking Enhancements for Nonlinear Simple Environments, would optimize the rapid, high-volume, structured information processing capability of the computer and the sensemaking capabilities that enable informed decisions by humans.



SensemakingAgent

Weapon

Shooter

Command and Control Inputs

Command and Control Outputs

Control

Feedback

TheaterObjectInformation

Sensemaking Information

Sensemaking Information

NegatedObjects

Feedback

EXAMPLE



EXAMPLE

Sensemaking Agents

ContractorAgent

Observe Collaboration and Processes

Observed Contractor State

(Contracts, Projects)

Observed ContractorPerformance

(Work Performed)

GovAgent

Advice to Contractor(Time and Delivery

performance)Contractor Reward

Contractor Reward

Advice to Gov(Contractor Information)



SENSE

Data

InformationKnowledge

WizdomKnowledge

InformationData

OBSERVATIONSS

ACTIONSS



SENSE

•Architecture

•Agent based computing

•Reinforcement Learning

•User in the loop

•More



A Basic Sensemaking Architecture

Individual & Cell view

Model Portal

Individual Portal

Process Portal

Enterprise Portal

EnterpriseKnowledge…Looking out

Individual Work

WorkTemplates

Group WorkManaging Across

Apply Standards Best Practices

CC:Knowledge Consultants, Inc. &



Sensemaking Environment

Work Groups, Cells, Teams etc.

Model Portal

Individual Portal

Process Portal

Enterprise Portal

Model Portal

Individual Portal

Process Portal

Enterprise Portal

Model Portal

Individual Portal

Process Portal

Enterprise Portal

Model Portal

Individual Portal

Process Portal

Enterprise Portal

Model Portal

Desktop Portal

Process Portal

Enterprise Portal

Operating UnitBusiness Intelligence Level

Incremental, repeatable architecture

CC:Knowledge Consultants, Inc. &



SocioTechnicalSystem Specs

–Treat emerging systems as units of interaction with the wider environment and include them in a ‘new’ system of action

–Invest in information infrastructure to monitor changing conditions

–Design a scalable knowledge base, with access to information appropriate to each level of action

–Avoid intermittency in risk assessment through a systematic program of monitoring risk conditions

Dr. Louise Comfort



References

• Weick, Karl E., Sensemaking in Organizations, Thousand Oaks, CA, Sage Publications, 1995. • Alberts, David S., Garstka, John J., Stein, Frederick P., Network Centric Warfare, Developing and Leveraging Information

Superiority, CCRP, 1999.• Casti, John. Complexification : Explaining a Paradoxical World Through the Science of Surprise. Harperperennial Library.

(1995).• Epstein, Joshua M., Nonlinear Dynamics, Mathematical, Biology, and Social Science. Reading, Addison Wesley, 1997.• Kaufman, Stuart, "Our Home in the Universe" Oxford Univ Pr 1996.• Maturana, H. R. &Varela, F. J. The Tree of Knowledge, the biological roots of human understanding. Shambhala,Boston.

(1998).• Pattee, H. The nature of hierarchical controls in living matter. In R. Rosen (Ed.), Foundations of Mathematical Biology,• Vol. I (Subcellular Systems). New York: Academic, pgs. 1-22. 1972.• Perez, Alex, A Reconstruction of the American Airlines Flight 985 Accident at Cali, Columbia: The Death Spiral in Controlled

Flight into Terrain. Detroit, MI. Department of Anthropology. Wayne State University.• Perrow, Charles, Normal Accidents, New York, Basic Books.• Pospelov, Dmitri. Situational Control: Theory ad Practice. Russian publication Nauka, Moscow 1986.• Pribram, Karl. Brain and Perception. ERA 1991.• Prueitt, Paul. Foundations of Knowledge Management in the 21st Century. In manuscript form only.• Rochlin, Eugene, Trapped in the Net. New York. Basic Books. 1997.• Rosen, Robert. "What is Life". 1992• Sutto, R. & Barto, A. Reinforcement Learning : An Introduction to Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning. MIT Press;

ISBN: 0262193981 (1998)• Wisnosky D. E. & Feeney Rita, BPR Wizdom, A Practical Guide to BPR Project Management with Introduction to Ring

Thinking, WizdomPress, ISBN#1-893990-03-63, 1999



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Documents

SENSEMaking! KM in a Hostile Environment October 24, 2001CC: Wizdom Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved Dennis E. Wisnosky CCRP Sensemaking Symposium October