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Sensitivity Analysis for Modelling Parameters Used for Advanced Evacuation Simulations – How
Important Are the Modelling Parameters When Conducting
Evacuation Modelling?
Olaf Albano Pérez SalgueiroFire Safety Engineer, JVVA Fire & Risk
Methodology / Approach
• Study objective (importance of input parameters)• Approach (parametric study)• Analysis (simulations)• Evaluation (results)• Conclusions
Analysis Base: Building Type & Scenario• Building type (Stadium)• Scenario (Simultaneous evacuation)1. Symmetrical2. High occupation density3. Merge of flows4. Wide and narrow corridors5. Stairs and ramps
Simulation – Software (Pathfinder)
Simulation – Input ParametersParameter Units Default valueVelocity m/s 1.19
Size cm 45.58
Acceleration time s 1.10
Boundary layer m 0.15
Comfort Distance m 0.08
Comfort Distance(From Queue density)
Pers/m2 4
Persist time s 1
Collision response time s 1.50
Stair riser cm 17.78
Max edge length m 2.50
Inverse Steering Behaviours
Simulation – Cost Parameters Path planning Locally quickest
Simulation – Design Scenario (Model)• Building is165m long and
112m wide• Grass is 103m long and
52m wide• 4 different terraced
standing areas
Simulation – Design Scenario (Population)Area Population (n. of people)
Terrace A 1023
Terrace B 2147
Terrace C 1023
Terrace D 2147
Total 6340
Analysis – Parametric StudyNmod Input value min Input value max
Velocity 12 0.3 1.9
Size 11 30.00 70.00
Acceleration time 11 0.6 2.0
Boundary layer 10 5.00 45.00
Comfort Distance 6 2 45
Comfort Distance(From Queue density)
6 3 6
Persist time 4 0.5 2.0
Collision response time 7 0.5 3.5
Stair riser 10 13.00 20.00
Max edge length 6 1.0 6.0
Analysis – Parametric Study (Results)
Walking Speed Shoulder Width
Analysis – Parametric Study (Results)
Persist time Collision response time
ConclusionsParameter High sensitivity Medium sensitivity Low sensitivityVelocity ✔Size ✔Acceleration time ✔Boundary layer ✔Comfort Distance ✔Comfort Distance(From Queue density)
✔
Persist time ✔Collision response time ✔Stair Riser ✔Max edge length ✔
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
11th CONFERENCE ON PERFORMANCE-BASED CODES AND FIRE SAFETY DESIGN METHODS, 23-25 MAY, WARSAW, POLAND
Olaf Albano Pérez SalgueiroFire Safety Engineer, JVVA Fire & Risk