Upload
lps2001
View
216
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
1/26
www.whiteboardadvisors.com
EducationInsider:TrackingMeasures,
CommonCoreStatus&Momentum,
andHigherEducation
September2013
www.whiteboardadvisors.com
1
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
2/26
WhyEducationInsider?
INTRODUCTION
TheValue
Weharnessthe
wisdomof
wellconnected
influentialsto
provide
insights
andpredict
policyoutcomes
forstakeholders
inthe
education
debate.
Whiteboard Advisors is a policyoriented consulting practice. We provide
proprietary research and strategic support to investors and philanthropicdonors, government leaders, and entrepreneurs who seek unparalleledunderstanding of the education policy and business environment.
Education Insider helps those who need quality information to make highstakes decisions about the direction of federal policy. Education Insider
combines the wisdom of informed crowds with expert analysis to offerunparalleled information, analysis, and forecasting on a range of federaleducation policy issues and likely outcomes.
Education Insider conducts an anonymous survey of a small group of keyeducation influentials (policymakers, thought leaders, and association
heads) to get their thoughts and commentary about the context of thecurrent debate and possible outcomes. This helps surface the underlyingdynamics that can affect the trajectory of policies, positively or negatively,and go deeper than the conventional wisdom and rhetoric.
2
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
3/26
WhyEducationInsider?
INTRODUCTION
TheProcess
Education Insider is a monthly report that cuts through the noise and
provides realtime insights on national education policy trends, debates,
and issuesfrom the handful of decision makers that are really driving the
process. We combine a survey of key education influencers with our own
analysis to provide a unique perspective on the current state of debate.
Who Are The Insiders?
Influential leaders who are shaping federal education reform, includingindividuals who have or are currently serving as key policy and political
insiders, such as:
Current and former White House and U.S. Department of Education
leaders;
Current and former Congressional staff;
State education leaders including state school chiefs and former
governors; and
Leaders of major education organizations, think tanks and other key
influentials
SurveyInsiders
AnalyzeResults
ReportInsights
DriveAction
3
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
4/26
Continuingarecenttrend,InsidersremainconcernedaboutthePARCCCommonCoreassessmentconsortiumwhilegivingtheSBACconsortiumhighermarks.
InsidersremainunconvincedthatESEAwillbereauthorizedanytimebeforelate2014,largelyduetomorepressingmattersfacingCongress,suchasthedebtceilingandthecrisisinSyria.InsiderscontinuetogiveCongressandtheAdministrationlowmarksoneducationpolicy.
InsidersthinkitislikelythatmorestateswilldropoutoftheCommonCoreassessmentconsortia,andseeconcernsaboutcosts,politics,andtechnologicalchallengesaskeyissues.
Amajority
of
Insiders
do
not
think
that
the
Gainful
Employmentrulemakingpanelwillreachaconsensusrule,butfarfewerthinkthatlegislativeactionwillblockimplementationofaGainfulEmploymentregulation.
73%ofInsidersthinkthatPARCC
isonthewrongtrackwhilejust
44%feelthesamewayabout
SBAC.
79%ofInsidersbelievethatmore
stateswilldropoutofthe
CommonCoretestingconsortia
in2013,and90%areconvinced
thenumberofparticipating
stateswill
drop
in
2014.
61%ofInsidersfeelthatthe
opponentsoftheCommonCore
andrelatedassessmentshave
themomentumrightnow.
97%ofInsidersdonotthinkthat
Congresswillapprovethose
aspectsofObamashighered
planthatrequirelegislative
approval.
ExecutiveSummary
INTRODUCTION
4
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
5/26
TableofContents
INTRODUCTION
5
TRACKING MEASURES 6
COMMON CORE STATUS & MOMENTUM 12
HIGHER EDUCATION 19
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
6/26
ApprovalRatingsRemainRelativelyStableforbothCongressand
Administration
6
Question:DoyouapproveordisapproveofthewayCongress/theAdministrationishandlingeducation?
JobApprovalonEducation
10 5 618 14
6 0 08 4
125 4
12 12 8 14 1215
7
90
95 9482
86
94 100100
92
9688
95 9688
88
92
86
88
85
93
7%
93%
Approve Disapprove
40 45
59
35
5750 52
45
50
46
50 50 4846 46 38 33 46 30 37
60 5541
65
4350 48
55 50 54 50 50 52 54 5462 67
5470
63
37%
63%
Approve Disapprove
Congress
Administration
TRACKINGMEASURES
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
7/26
TimingofESEAReauthorization
TRACKINGMEASURES
7
Question: AboutwhendoyoubelieveafinalESEAbillwillbesignedintolaw?
7
DateofInsiderSurvey12%
33%
10% 12% 18% 8% 15%3%
8%3%
29%
5%
10%
20%18%
9%
10%
8% 4% 4%
8%
4%
24% 33%
35%
32%36%
33% 20%
29%
25%
8%
19%
10%
4%
11% 17%
35%29%
40%32%
29%
50%55%
63%71%
92%
77%
87%81%
85%80%
Apr.'12 Jun.'12 July'12 Aug.'12 Sept.
'12
Nov.'12Dec.'12 Jan.'13 Feb.'13 Mar.
'13
Apr.'13May'13 Jun.'13 July'13 Sept.
2013
TimingofESEAReauthorization
ByDec.2013 ByJun.2014 ByDec.2014 AfterJan.2015
Insidersremain
steadfastin
thinkingthat
ESEAwillnotbe
reauthorized
untilsometime
afterJanuary
2015.
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
8/26
TRACKINGMEASURES
8
InsiderInsight:ESEAReauthorizationTiming
Why?
AnybandwidthCongresshasseemstobedevotedtorelitigatingthehealthcareact.
Theresnosenseofcompromiseandnoincentiveoneithersidetotrytocompromise.
ArneDuncanhassomangledfederaleducationatthispointthatitsgoingtotakeanew
administrationandsecretarytoreframethedebateandofferapathforward.
Noneofthereallykeyincentivestogetitdonearethererightnow.Congressrarelyactswithout
those.
Whoknowswhen;itisnotapriorityrightnow.
TherestofthisyearisshotwithSyria,debtceiling,andappropriationsandnextyearisan
electionyear.Additionally,thereisnoconsensusonwhattodo.
Harkindoesnthavethevotesforthefloor,andanycompromiselegislationbecomeslessand
lesslikelyasprimariesgetcloser.
Harkinisfinallygoneafterthatdate.
Thereisnowilltonegotiate.Plus,thenoneducationissues(e.g.,Syriaandthedebtceiling)will
ruletheday.
Harkinwillhaveretiredbythen.
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
9/26
Question:Aretheassessmentconsortiaontherighttrackorwrongtrack?
Aretheassessmentconsortiaonthe
righttrackorwrongtrack?
CommonCoreAssessments RightTrackorWrongTrack?
TRACKINGMEASURES
9
69%62%
52% 55% 48%
35% 30%22%
38%27% 27%
31% 38%49% 45% 52%
65%70%
78%
63%73% 73%
Sept.
'12
Nov.
'12
Dec.
'12
Jan.
'13
Feb.
'13
Mar.
'13
Apr.
'13
May
'13
Jun.
'13
July
'13
Sept.
'13
PARCC
RightTrack WrongTrack
33% 33% 29% 27% 23%30% 33% 26%
54%62%
56%
67% 67% 71% 73% 77%70% 67% 74%
46%38%
44%
Sept.
'12
Nov.
'12
Dec.
'12
Jan.
'13
Feb.
'13
Mar.
'13
Apr.
'13
May
'13
Jun.
'13
July
'13
Sept.
'13
SBAC
RightTrack WrongTrack
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
10/26
WhydoyoubelievePARCCandSBACareontherightorwrongtrack?
Thedeeperwegetintotheimplementationphase,theharderthisisgoingto
getfieldtesting,
double
testing,
cost,
making
accountability
decisions
in
atimelyfashion(becausethetestsaretobedeliveredrelativelylateinthe
year),etc.aregoingtomakethislessandlessattractiveforstatesand
districts.SBAChasaleguponPARCContheimplementationside,butthiswill
beaveryhardandlongroadforbothconsortiathatpolicymakersin
Washington(and
in
the
states
to
be
fair)
did
not
pay
awhole
lot
of
attention
to.
Botharegettinglostintheweeds,andneitherisabletoaddressthegrowing
oppositiontothetests,particularlyfromstateandlocalteachersunions.
Thereare
alot
of
challenges
and
significant
risks...but
by
all
accounts
they
arebuildinggoodtests.
InsiderInsight:RightTrack/WrongTrack
TRACKINGMEASURES
10
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
11/26
WhydoyoubelievePARCCandSBACareontherightorwrongtrack?
SBACisinbettershapebutbothconsortiaarestrugglingandpeopleare
talkingpretty
openly
about
Plan
B
options.
FL
seems
likely
to
bail
out
of
PARCC;thatwillbesignificantfromasignalingperspectiveandhavesome
practicalimplications.
OtherstateswatchedNewYorksurvivethePARCCandlargelytrustthe
informationasamorereliableindicatorofstudentknowledgeandskills.That
bodeswellforbothconsortiamovingforward.
ImconcernedthatPARCCisquicklylosingstateswiththepotentialtolose
more.Ithastobemorethancostissuesandthepoliticalfootballofwhether
tokeepthestandards.Aretheynotworkingcloselywiththeirstates?
InsiderInsight:RightTrack/WrongTrack(continued)
TRACKINGMEASURES
11
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
12/26
Question:DoyouexpectmorestatestodropoutoftheCommonCoreAssessmentConsortiain2013?2014?
MoreStatesDroppingoutoftheCommonCoreAssessment
ConsortiaThis
Year?
COMMONCORESTATUS&MOMENTUM
12
79%90%
21%
10%
2013 2014
0%10%
20%
30%
40%50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
WillMoreStatesDropOut?
YesNo
Almostall
Insidersbelieve
thatmore
states
willdropoutof
thePARCCand
SBACassessment
consortiathisyear(andeven
morebelieveit
will
happen
next
year).
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
13/26
Whyorwhynot?
Cost,lowscores,anditbeingREALLYhardtoimplementsuchalargescale
testis
likely
to
scare
states
away.
(Oh
yeah,
and
the
politicsalmost
forgot
aboutthat.)
IthinktherewillbeaconcertedefforttoattachCCSSbyanyandallmeans
becauseofbudgets,becauseofconcernfromtherightandtheleft,and
becausetheoriginalimplementation,inretrospect,wasrushed.Itisalittle
likeatreeinthetropicsitgrewhigh,buthasnorootsystem.
[Itsa]collectiveaction,PrisonersDilemmaproblem.Individually,stateshave
lotsofreasontodropout(money,politics,habit,etc.)buttheydallbenefitif
theystayedin.Butthemorestatesthatdropout,thelessvalueithasto
othersto
stay
in.
There
were
two
possible
equilibriavirtually
all
in
or
mostly
out.Wereclearlytrendingtowardthelatter.
InsiderInsight:WillMoreStatesDropOut?
COMMONCORESTATUS&MOMENTUM
13
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
14/26
Confluenceofincreasedcosts,ongoingtechnicalchallenges,andpolitics.
Ithinkthereisstillsomeunrest,confusion,uncertaintyinstatesabout
implementationoftheassessments,howtohandlenew,lowerscores driven
primarilyby
extremes
on
the
right
and
the
left.
As
the
day
to
day
work
continues,teachersgainmoreconfidence,andaconcertedefforttobluntthe
politicalattacksmatures,thiswillsettledown.
MyguessisthatSmarterBalancedwillkeeptheirstates.ItsPARCCthatIm
worriedabout.
Thetestsarentthatgood,politicalpressureisrising,andscoreswilladdto
thepressuretoleave.DuncansCaliforniastatementisnthelpfuleither.
Thereisanelectioncoming.
Inevitable.
And
realistic.
But
thats
ok.
InsiderInsight:WillMoreStatesDropOut?(continued)
COMMONCORESTATUS&MOMENTUM
14
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
15/26
Becausestatelegislatorshaveverynarrowviewsandgetbadinformation.
Ascostsandadministrationandscoringproblemsbegintoreartheirugly
heads,morestateswillseelittleincentivetoworkingwithaconsortium.
Itis
likely
that
states
will
see
more
backlash
if
teachers
dont
get
the
supports
theyneedtoimplementthestandards.Politiciansmaycapitalizeonteacher
frustrationaselectionsgetcloser.
2014iswhentherubbermeetstheroadandpeoplewhodidnthavethe
foresightto
drop
out
beforehand
or
never
sign
up
for
this
adventure
finally
realizewhattheyvegottenthemselvesinto.
Itisinevitable,sincethetestsarelikelytocausealotofangstandtheyare
costly.
Some
SHOULD
drop
out.
For
various
reasons,
they
arent
serious
about
CommonCoreand/oraboutassessmentsandaccountabilitysystemsbasedon
it.
InsiderInsight:WillMoreStatesDropOut?(continued)
COMMONCORESTATUS&MOMENTUM
15
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
16/26
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
17/26
Whyorwhynot?
Atleastinthemedia,thatswhatitlookslike.
Inpolitics,youlookforintensity.Theantishaveit.
Imnotsureeitherreallyhasmomentum.Somemorestateswilldropoutoftheconsortia,and
maybesomestatesthatevenbackoutofthestandards.ButIthinkCommonCorewillmove
forwardinmostplaces.
Notthattheyrelettingthefactsgetintheway.Someoftheobjectionsarenotremotelyaligned
withreality.
Finsto
the
left,
fins
to
the
right.
The
left,
including
state
and
local
teachers
unions,
are
attacking
thehighstakestestandthefocusonscores.Therightdistruststhefederaltakeoverofpublic
education.Itisatightspot.
Theopponentsbecausetheirargumentiseasier.But...itwillchangeatsomepointwhenthe
questionturnstohavingagoodtest.Aretheregoodalternatives?
Theproponents
are
still
in
pretty
good
shape;
alot
of
states
have
adopted
[the
standards]
and
willimplementeveniftheyjumpshipontheassessments.Buttheopponentshavegonefroma
marginalpresencetohavingrealimpactanditsunclearwhatthepushbackisfromthe
proponents.KathleenPorterwritesgreatblogpostsontheactualfactshere,butthisisnot
turningonthefactsorwhatbloggersthink.
InsiderInsight:CommonCoreandAssessments Proponentsvs.
Opponents
COMMONCORESTATUS&MOMENTUM
17
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
18/26
Whyorwhynot?
Evenifafewmorestatesdropoutoftheassessmentconsortia,momentumto
implementisstrongandgrowinginthemajorityofstates.
Istillgiveaslightedgetotheopponents,becausemostofthemediacoveragewesee
isnegative.ButIdohaveasenseitisdyingdownabit.
StillstrongwhenthecaseismadeandelectedGovernorsareholdingtheirground.
Theopponentshaveturbulence.Theproponentshavetheinertiaofcurrentpolicy.
Momentummay
not
be
the
right
metaphor.
NewYorkCitytookthetestsandwaslargelysuccessfulwithmessaging.Theresno
reasonwhyotherswontbeabletofollowsuit.
ItlookslikeWorldWarIinitsearlyyears.Ijustdontthinktheoutcomewillbeas
good.LotsofdeathsandnoAlliedvictory.
Neither.Momentumcantbebuiltonlies.Idothinktheproponentsarebeginningto
gettheirinformationoutthere.
OpposingthefederalgovernmentalwayshasmoremomentumintheObamaera.
InsiderInsight:CommonCoreandAssessments Proponentsvs.
Opponents(continued)
COMMONCORESTATUS&MOMENTUM
18
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
19/26
Question:Onascaleof1to5,howlikelydoyouthinkitisthatCongresswillapprovethePresidentsplantoratecollegesbasedonopportunityand
outcomesandrequirestudentstocompletetheircoursesbeforereceivinggrantsforthenextsemester?
CongressionalApprovalforObamasHigherEducationPlans
HIGHER EDUCATION
19
AlmostallInsiders
thinkthatthe
components
of
Obamashigher
educationplanthat
requireCongressional
approvalspecifically
ratingcolleges
on
opportunityand
outcomesandtying
studentgrantsto
course
completionwillnotcometo
fruition.
38%
59%
3%
0%
0%
1 Definitelynotgoingtohappen
2 Unlikelytohappen
3 Maybegoingtohappen
4 Likelytohappen
5 Definitelygoingtohappen
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
HowlikelyisitthatCongresswillapprove
thePresidentshighereducationplan?
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
20/26
Whyorwhynot?
IthinkCongresscanprobablyagreeonnamingsomepostoffices.Andthatspretty
muchit.
Itwillnegativelyimpactfartoomanyschools,particularlyHBCUsandHSIs.
DonothingCongress,especiallythecloserwegetto2014elections.
Iusedtothinkthatunionswerethemostpowerfuleducationlobbyatthestatelevel.
Nope.Collegepresidents.Theywontlikethis,theylltelltheirgovernorsandfederal
reps.And
it
will
die.
ThePOTUSwillneedtodoasmuchaspossiblethroughexecutiveaction.
Mostuniversitiesespeciallyprivateoneswillcontinuetobeopposedtoanysortof
accountability.Andtheyarepoliticallypowerfulentities.However,youarestartingto
seecracksintheunifiedfrontinstitutionsandtheirassociationstypicallypresentso
wewillseerealconversationsthisgoround,andbiggerchangeinthenext
reauthorization.
InsiderInsight:CongressionalApprovalforObamasHigher
EducationPlans
HIGHER EDUCATION
20
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
21/26
Whyorwhynot?
Toomuchontheirplateandproposalistoocontroversial;needstobeworkedon.
Does
anyone
really
believe
that
the
public
thinks
the
federal
government
is
the
best
assessorofcollegequality?AsmuchastheintelligentsiamaydislikeU.S.Newsand
WorldReport,ithasabrandthatthepublicknowsandrespects.Further,the
AdministrationscollegeratingproposalisNCLBonsteroids.
EDwilldowhateveritcandowithoutCongresssapproval.Anythingthatrequires
Congressionalapproval
will
need
to
look
very
different
than
the
Presidents
plan
to
passtheHouse.
WhenwillthisAdministrationfinallygetittheycantoutsmarteveryoneandthey
cantlegislateperfectdecisionsforeveryone?Itmightjustbethatwewillalwayshave
goodschools,averageschools,andpoorschools.Andunfortunately,noteveryonewill
choosegood
or
even
average.
Setting
up
some
system
that
allows
the
federal
governmenttopreventpeoplefromdoinganythingconsideredbadishubrisinthe
extremeandamisunderstandingofhowchoice,forbetterorworse,inhigher
educationhasmadeoursystem,onaverage,thebestintheworld.
ItsanotherdumbWashingtonbasedsolutionthataddsnovalue.
InsiderInsight:CongressionalApprovalforObamasHigher
EducationPlans
(continued)
HIGHER EDUCATION
21
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
22/26
Question:Willthegainfulemploymentrulemakingpanelreachaconsensusrule?
GainfulEmploymentRuleMaking
HIGHER EDUCATION
22
MostInsidersdo
notthinkthat
thegainful
employment
rulemaking
panelwillreach
aconsensus
rule.
18%
52%
30%
Willthegainfulemploymentrulemaking
panelreachaconsensusrule?
Yes
No
Don'tknow
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
23/26
Whyorwhynot?
Thegaponhowtoaddressthisistoowide.
Itsalways
easier
to
agree
amongst
friends
youve
selected
to
debate.
Thedepartmentdoesntwantconsensusandtheywilljust
regulate
anyway.
InsiderInsight:GainfulEmploymentRuleMaking
HIGHER EDUCATION
23
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
24/26
Question:DoyoubelievelegislativeactionwillblockimplementationofaGainfulEmploymentregulation?
LegislativeActionandGainfulEmploymentRegulations
HIGHER EDUCATION
24
Onlyafew
Insidersbelieve
thatlegislative
actionwillblock
implementation
ofaGainful
Employment
regulation.
4%
57%
39%
Willlegislativeactionblockimplementation?
Yes
No
Don'tknow
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
25/26
Whyorwhynot?
Dependsontherule.
Right
now,
legislative
action
may
be
an
oxymoron. Ianswereddontknowbecauseitdependsontoomanyvariablesrightnow:What
doestherulelooklike,doesitcomethroughtheprocessorfromEDafterconsensus
fails.Butaswesawlasttimethisisanissuewithsomelocalimplicationssoabancould
getthroughtheHouseandwithsomeDemvotes,theSenateistougherbutnotoutof
thequestion
at
allespecially
if
its
arider
on
alarger
must
pass
bill.
CongresscantagreeonmajoritemslikeSyriaorfundingthegovernment.Icant
imagineanissuelikeblockingtheregbeingtheonethingaboutwhichthetwohouses
cometogether.
ThisispossiblebutitdependswhatisfinalizedinOctober.
HarkinwouldneverallowtheFoxxbill(oranypartofit)topasstheSenate.
NochancetheSenateorPresidentagreetotheHousesregulatorypausebill.
No,Democratswillalwaystrytodestroytheprivatesectorandtheyloathetheideaof
anyonebesidestheircroniesmakingaprofit.
InsiderInsight:LegislativeActionandGainfulEmployment
Regulations
HIGHER EDUCATION
25
7/29/2019 Sept 2013 - Education Insider (Tracking Measures, Common Core, Higher Education)
26/26
WhiteboardAdvisors
26
Email:
Follow: WhiteBdAdvisor
Visit:
http://www.whiteboardadvisors.com
Blog: http://www.whiteboardadvisors.com/news
Sign
up
for
Whiteboard
Weekly
Notes
for
the
latest
educationnews.SubscribeusingyourQRCode
readerorbyvisiting:http://eepurl.com/nW3D