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Clips

(September 19, 2017)

September 19, 2017 Page 2 of 24

Today’s Clips Contents

FROM THE LOS ANGELES TIME (Page 3)

One thing Mike Trout hasn't hurt is his MVP chances

Angels mailbag: Looking at the last two weeks

FROM THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER (Page 7)

Uber-talented Justin Upton brings bulk to Angels’ lineup

Vladimir Guerrero thanks Angels, fans for recent Hall of Fame honor

Cleveland Indiands juggernaut rolls into Anaheim after historic streak

FROM ANGELS.COM (Page 12)

Trout’s defensive marks limited by chances

Inbox: Angels OK if Upton becomes free agent

Looking to gain WC ground, Halos face Tribe

FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS (Page 17)

Red-hot Clevinger, Indians take on Angels

FROM ESPN.COM (Page 19)

From wild-card chases to MVP races: Your guide to season's final two weeks

FROM SPORTING NEWS (Page 22)

AL MVP: Jose Altuve is clear favorite, but race for second is star-studded

September 19, 2017 Page 3 of 24

FROM THE LOS ANGELES TIMES

One thing Mike Trout hasn't hurt is his MVP chances

By Pedro Moura

One afternoon at Angel Stadium last week, Mike Trout tossed a large foam football around the

clubhouse with some teammates. At one point, Trout fired the football in a tight, perfect spiral across

the room to Garrett Richards, his housemate and the Angels’ ace. Richards returned the throw on an

uneven path. Trout sent him another spiral. Again, Richards returned the throw with a slight wobble.

“Garrett!” Trout exclaimed. “Make an adjustment!”

That’s the paradox: Improvement is typically attributed to adjustments. But Trout, on the verge of

registering his best season to date, maintains he has made none.

“I haven’t changed a thing,” Trout said. “For sure.”

The Angels’ center fielder and reigning American League most valuable player is contending for the

same award this year despite missing nearly seven weeks because of a torn thumb ligament.

Trout, 26, is walking more, hitting for more power and striking out less than ever before. Based on his

plate-appearance pace, he should qualify for the American League batting title on Friday, a technicality

that will allow him to appear on standard leader boards.

He will then take a sizable AL lead in both on-base and slugging percentage. New York’s Aaron Judge will

be next-best, ahead in each over Houston’s Jose Altuve, who is thought to be the current MVP favorite.

Trout, who also won the award in 2014 and finished second in 2012, ’13 and ’15, could become the first

player to finish in the top two in MVP voting for six straight seasons. However, he declined to discuss his

own candidacy.

“I’m just gonna try to finish strong,” he said. “Guys are having great years. With Judge, Altuve, even

[Jose] Ramirez from Cleveland is having an unbelievable season. I’ll keep going to the end and see what

happens.”

Trout said his outlook is the same for the Angels, who sit 1½ games out of playoff position with 13

games to play. Though he never has won a postseason game, this will be the fourth time in six major

league seasons that Trout has had at least a chance to make the playoffs in the season’s final days.

He called each remaining game a “must-win.” Had he not suffered the thumb injury in May, the Angels’

circumstances might be different.

“Being hurt switches up some things,” Trout said. “But the beginning of the year was a good start, the

start you wanted coming out of spring. At the end, you want to be in it, still, which helps a little bit. It’s

been a crazy year, obviously.”

September 19, 2017 Page 4 of 24

For him and for the league. On Tuesday, Major League Baseball will break its record for homers in a

season with nearly two weeks to spare. Theories abound as to why, from increased temperatures to

intended or unintended changes with the baseballs that are being used. Trout thinks it’s because

pitchers are throwing harder.

“I can’t see anything else,” Trout said. “People say maybe the balls are a little tighter, but I haven’t

noticed anything. I just think guys are throwing harder, for sure. I think that’s why strikeouts are up.

“Other than that, I’m speechless.”

Pitchers are actually not throwing harder. Fastballs, sliders and curveballs are all down one tenth of a

mile per hour this season compared to last, according to Statcast data captured by BaseballSavant.com.

But Trout is correct that the game around him is changing. Since the year he debuted, 2011, home runs

are up 34%, walks are up 6% and strikeouts 16%.

So, some of his improvement — what shows up in statistics — can be attributed to him swaying with the

sport as it has changed. Some might be reflective of how pitchers now approach him, and, he says, his

understanding of those approaches. The rest is limiting slumps.

“The biggest thing is, with all the walks, my timing just has been on,” Trout said. “When my timing’s off,

that’s when my strikeouts are up, when I’m swinging at bad pitches. You want to limit it to a game, limit

it to an at-bat, or even pitches within an at-bat.”

On recent days in the Angels’ clubhouse, strength and conditioning coach Lee Fiocchi has approached

several players about planning offseason training regimens. When he went up to Trout last week, the

franchise player playfully pushed back.

“I’m getting old, man,” Trout told Fiocchi to laughter across the clubhouse.

“Man,” 36-year-old second baseman Brandon Phillips said, “come on.”

Short hop

The Angels announced they will begin to sell tickets to potential postseason home games Sept. 27 at 10

a.m. Tickets for up to three games will be available on the Angels’ website or by phone through

Ticketmaster.

Angels mailbag: Looking at the last two weeks

By Pedro Moura

Hello, Angels fans. Well, this is almost it. Your favorite baseball team is 76-73 and off today for the last

time this season. With 13 games remaining in the regular season, they trail Minnesota by two games for

the American League’s second wild-card spot.

September 19, 2017 Page 5 of 24

So, the Angels’ playoff destiny may not fully rest within their control. But, with good play, they can give

themselves a reasonable chance to qualify for the Oct. 3 wild-card game — or an Oct. 2 play-in game in

Minnesota.

It begins Tuesday, when Cleveland comes to town for a three-game series. Luckily, the Angels will

miss Corey Kluber, the Cy Young contender, and Carlos Carrasco. The pitching matchups follow:

Tuesday: RHP Mike Clevinger (10-5, 3.21 ERA) vs. LHP Tyler Skaggs (2-5, 4.37 ERA)

Wednesday: RHP Josh Tomlin (9-9, 5.04 ERA) vs. RHP Ricky Nolasco (6-14, 5.11 ERA)

Thursday: RHP Danny Salazar (5-6, 4.52 ERA) vs. RHP Parker Bridwell (8-2, 3.71 ERA)

Let us get to the questions.

If Upton decides to opt out what do you think he's fetch on the open market? Similar to Trumbo last off

season? More?

Evaluators I’ve asked are torn as to whether Justin Upton could best the $88.5 million the Angels are

currently obligated to pay him over the next four years. Most agree that, if he opts out, he is not going

to crush that number.

Does it make sense to risk $88.5 million for an extra 10% or 15%? Maybe. Maybe if you know the floor is

something like $80 million over four years and you can at least pick the team that will pay you that

money?

I can tell you that he will not be opting out for Mark Trumbo money — three years, $37.5 million. Upton

offers a consistency that Trumbo did not. So while they are generally fair comparisons as bat-first corner

outfielders, Upton is a better fielder, better baserunner, and a better and more consistent hitter. Teams

value that.

Why do the Angels break my heart every year?

To paraphrase A. Bartlett Giamatti, the season is structured to break your heart, if you invest yourself

enough in it. But, occasionally, you will feel tremendous, incomparable satisfaction. Or so I’ve heard.

Do you think Scoscia should replaced? do you think all the pitcher injuries R due 2 lack of knowledgeable

training staff or just R bad luck?

I have zero desire to speculate about any person’s job security. Mike Scioscia remains under contract

through next season. To the latter question, the Angels swapped strength and conditioning coaches

after last season, so the connection between the years is smaller than fans realize. As I’ve written here

before, fans often overestimate the degree to which their teams are snakebit by injuries. Pitchers get

hurt, all over the league, all over the world.

So it’s not like other teams are staying healthy and the Angels are getting wrecked. But it’s true that the

quantity of arm injuries suffered by Angels pitchers in the last two seasons is abnormal, between Garrett

September 19, 2017 Page 6 of 24

Richards’ elbow and biceps, Andrew Heaney’s elbow and shoulder, Nick Tropeano’s elbow, Matt

Shoemaker’s forearm, JC Ramirez’s elbow, Andrew Bailey’s shoulder, Huston Street’s lat and rotator

cuff, and Alex Meyer’s shoulder. That is a ton of significant ailments, representing millions and millions

in lost value.

The Angels do not allow members of their training staff to speak to reporters. We can still be certain

that they are aware and concerned about the array of injuries.

As I wrote last year here, there are other possible factors besides training. It’s not as simple as the

wrong post-start exercises. This will be a topic to explore more in the off-season.

Is bridwell for real? What do the numbers tell us?

The numbers tell us that Parker Bridwell is getting lucky, to a degree. He has a 3.71 earned-run average,

and his peripheral statistics do not support that kind of production. They also tell us that he belongs in

the major leagues. The source of his success is simple: He pounds the strike zone, limits walks, avoids

crazy homer rates, and allows the Angels’ superb defense to go to work saving some hits. His fielding-

independent-pitching metric says he deserves an ERA of 4.56, which is not wonderful but certainly

serviceable. Considering the Angels acquired him for cash in April and they can keep him for cheap for

the next six seasons, he is an asset.

.@pedromoura Have your contacts deep within #Angels front office indicated possible run at signing

Otani this offseason? Or diff options?

The Angels have not had an evaluator at Shohei Ohtani’s recent outings. It’s tough to predict where he

will sign, especially since the differentiation within signing bonuses will be so small because of MLB’s

nonsensical rules, but they are certainly not a favorite.

How do you think the Angels' strength of schedule the rest of the way compares to the rest of the AL

Wild Card contenders?

At this point, the chances are highly likely that either Minnesota or the Angels will win the second wild-

card nomination. Most public playoff odds calculators peg the chances of one of those teams winning it

between 90% and 95%. So, let’s not even worry about Seattle or Baltimore right now.

The Angels play seven road games and six home games. They play six games against good teams, four

games against a bad team, and three games against a team that could be out of the race by the time

they meet.

The Twins play 10 road games and three home games. They play six games against good teams and

seven games against a bad team.

They’re pretty similar schedules, really.

With this September, is Mike Trout wasting Mike Trout's prime?

September 19, 2017 Page 7 of 24

This month, Trout has more than twice as many walks as strikeouts and an .869 on-base-plus-slugging

percentage. Don’t be ridiculous.

FROM THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

Uber-talented Justin Upton brings bulk to Angels’ lineup

By Jeff Fletcher

ANAHEIM — When Eric Byrnes was with the Arizona Diamondbacks, hitting a ball over the batter’s eye at

the club’s spring training home in Tucson, Ariz., was no trivial feat. Maybe a few times a spring, someone

would connect well enough to launch one that far.

In 2007, though, a 19-year-old kid suddenly make it look easy.

This was Justin Upton’s introduction to the big leagues.

“He was flicking balls over it at will,” Byrnes recalled. “Taking one look at Justin Upton, I thought to myself,

I would not be shocked to see this kid in Cooperstown one day. The presence about him. The way he stood

in the box. The natural stance and setup he had… . When you look at a kid like that, you think, that’s what

they’re supposed to look like. That’s what I want to see from a first overall pick.”

Upton has lived with huge expectations from the moment the Diamondbacks tapped him with the first

pick in the 2005 draft, and all the way until the Angels acquired him Aug. 31 with the hope he could push

them into the playoffs.

In Upton’s first 15 games with the Angels, he has produced a .288 average, three homers and a .988 OPS.

Slipped between Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, Upton has added bulk to the middle of a lineup that had

struggled for much of the season. For the season, Upton has a .913 OPS to go with his 31 homers and 103

RBI.

“He’s picked up where he left off,” Manager Mike Scioscia said. “He just changed colors from Detroit’s

uniform to ours.”

Which is a familiar thing for Upton.

For as good as his career has been, what it has lacked is continuity. The Angels are his fifth team in 10

years. This move, his first during the season, was particularly hectic.

Upton changed teams in between a two-city trip with the Tigers and a three-city trip with the Angels.

Besides living out of hotels and one suitcase for nearly three weeks, he also had to relocate his wife and

21-month-old daughter on the fly.

“I’ve always looked at it as part of the game,” Upton said. “At the end of the day, you get to step on the

field every day and wear a jersey and compete. Each place I’ve been, I’ve enjoyed.”

September 19, 2017 Page 8 of 24

Upton, who just turned 30, will soon have the power to decide if he’s going to pack up again, or stick

around for a while. The deal he negotiated with the Tigers before the 2016 season included an opt-out

following the 2017 season. After the World Series, Upton will have the choice of staying with the Angels,

for four years and about $89 million, or becoming a free agent again. He would be one of the top hitters in

a free agent class that would also include J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

Without tipping his hand – and it’s likely he doesn’t even know the answer yet – Upton sounds ready to

settle down.

“It would be nice to get comfortable somewhere,” he said. “You never know with baseball. Baseball is

unpredictable. You’ve got to play it by ear.”

Byrnes suspects Upton will stay with the Angels.

“I talked to him right after the trade and he is stoked to be in Anaheim,” Byrnes said. “He was really

excited to be playing meaningful games and also to get back to the West Coast. It’s been a place I think

he’s always felt really comfortable. He’s pumped to be back there. … I think he has a better chance of not

opting out now that he’s in Anaheim, than when he was in Detroit in that rebuild. … If (the money) is

relatively equivalent in his contract, I don’t see why he would opt out.”

Byrnes, who played with Upton in Arizona for three of the four seasons before he retired and became an

analyst, said he still keeps in regular contact with him. He marvels at the player he has become.

“He’s put together a very nice resume of consistency, which is something in today’s game,” Byrnes said.

“You see a lot of guys having big years and then falling off. It’s the most difficult thing in the game to do,

year in and year out, especially changing teams like he has.”

Ask Cameron Maybin, who has known Upton twice as long as Byrnes. Maybin, who is from North Carolina,

and Upton, from Virginia, regularly played against each other in elite tournaments starting when they were

9 or 10 years old.

In 2005, Upton was the No. 1 pick in the draft, and Maybin was 10th. They then played together with the

San Diego Padres (in spring training), Atlanta Braves and Tigers.

“It’s fun to still be going at it,” said Maybin, who just missed Upton with the Angels, having been sent the

same day to the Houston Astros when Upton’s acquisition rendered him expendable. “It’s fun to watch.

He’s always been fun to watch. He’s physically gifted.”

The Diamondbacks obviously knew that before they used the draft’s most precious pick to take him.

“You could tell right away, he was the best player on the field on any given night,” said Astros manager A.J.

Hinch, who was the Diamondbacks’ farm director during Upton’s first season.

Hinch watched Upton make the smooth conversion from shortstop to outfield, reaching the majors after

just one full season in the minors. When he got to the big leagues in 2007, “he had the weight of the

September 19, 2017 Page 9 of 24

franchise on his shoulders, and he handled it very well,” Hinch said. “He was mature beyond his years

when he got there.”

By 2009, he was an All-Star, hitting .300 with 26 homers. Upton had a second All-Star season in 2011,

helping the Diamondbacks to a second division title in his first five seasons. In 2012, the numbers slipped

and so did his stature in the organization.

Ironically, the maturity that Hinch so admired might have been twisted into something else when the

Diamondbacks were looking to trade Upton, after Hinch was gone. Upton rejected a deal to the Seattle

Mariners in January 2013, but days later was dealt to the Braves. A report later said the Diamondbacks

didn’t believe Upton played with enough intensity.

Now, Upton simply shrugs: “They had to have a reason for the trade. They had to justify it.”

Byrnes and Hinch both said it was unfair. Byrnes recalled a game against the Rockies in the 2007 NLCS in

which Upton – as a rookie – broke up a double play so aggressively that he was called out for interference.

“I always felt there’s no way this guy should get any sort of stigma that he doesn’t play hard or doesn’t

care,” Byrnes said. “In my opinion, this dude played his (tail) off.”

Hinch, who managed Upton in Arizona after he was promoted from farm director, agreed.

“There were outbursts behind closed doors,” Hinch said. “He may not have wanted to show it on the field.

He might have wanted to give off the impression he was cool and calm and collected, but don’t confuse his

stoic nature with lack of intensity, because that would be a disservice to him.”

Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who played with Upton with the Braves, said Upton has just the

right demeanor.

“He’s not too quiet but he’s not too loud,” Simmons said. “He’s a great hitter. He carried that team for a

good amount of time.”

That production, after all, is what really matters.

Although his career has had ups and downs, like just about every big leaguer, he has maintained a

relatively high level of performance. He is one of only 42 players who have had nine full seasons before

age 30 with an adjusted OPS over 100 – better than average.

Of the others, 29 are in the Hall of Fame.

“I’m not sure anyone could live up to the hype that surrounded him — I’m watching Carlos Correa go

through the same thing – but watching Justin methodically go through it, he’s having a better career than

people give him credit for,” Hinch said. “He’s run the race with a lot of respect.”

September 19, 2017 Page 10 of 24

Vladimir Guerrero thanks Angels, fans for recent Hall of Fame honor

Staff Report

Dear Angels, Angels fans …

I write this letter from the bottom of my heart to thank you, on behalf of myself and my family for the

unbelievable and wonderful experience we lived on August 26th. Being inducted into the Angels Hall of

Fame was something that I never dreamed of when I signed as a free agent and wore that very special

jersey for the first time in 2004.

I can’t thank the entire Angels community and the organizational staff enough for how special they’ve

always

made me feel with the way they’ve treated me and my family. On that Saturday, being next to my former

teammates again brought the most vivid memories about our many celebrations on the field after

reaching our goals. To have my name next to those outstanding players that are part of the Angels Hall of

Fame, very precious to me, forever.

To Mr. and Mrs. Moreno, I’m extremely grateful for your call, and for the opportunity to once again step

on that field and feel the warmth of the many, many people that hold a special place in my heart. I ask God

that I can represent the organization with pride and dignity for the rest of my life.

To this talented 2017 team, keep fighting.

Gracias, immensely grateful…and may God bless you,

Vladimir Guerrero

Cleveland Indiands juggernaut rolls into Anaheim after historic streak

By J.P. Hoornstra

In July, a reporter asked Angels manager Mike Scioscia to comment on the success of the Dodgers, who

were in the midst of winning 14 of 15 games. Scioscia obliged the question, but quickly noted that he and

his players were focused on their own fate.

Hopefully their focus hasn’t wavered.

The Cleveland Indians roll into Anaheim this week having recently won 22 consecutive games, an American

League record. There’s a strong case for calling it the longest, most dominant regular-season streak ever in

Major League Baseball.

Cleveland trailed at the end of only eight innings during the 199 innings it played. Once, the Indians won in

their final at-bat. Mostly they won by grappling teams into submission early, leaving no room for a

reversal. They outscored opponents, 142-37.

September 19, 2017 Page 11 of 24

The streak began on Aug. 24 and ended Friday. For the Indians’ rookies who were summoned when rosters

expanded in September, a 4-3 loss to the Kansas City Royals marked the first time they ever tasted defeat

in the major leagues. Cleveland beat Kansas City on Saturday and Sunday, beginning a new streak. After

Sunday’s win, the team wasted several bottles of champagne in celebration of an AL Central title.

Through one prism, the Indians’ rise is a story of successful drafting and developing, and signing

homegrown players to team-friendly contracts. Their $139 million payroll ranks 19th in baseball according

to Spotrac.

Infielder Jose Ramirez, an MVP candidate at age 24, is signed through 2021 at a total cost of $26 million.

Pitcher Corey Kluber will make $7.5 million this year – more if he captures his second career Cy Young

Award. Other key contributors include young (read: inexpensive) talents such as Francisco Lindor (23),

Mike Clevinger (26) and Bradley Zimmer (24).

The success of Clevinger, who starts Tuesday opposite Tyler Skaggs, is a case of what might have been for

the Angels.

Clevinger had a 5.37 ERA at Class-A Inland Empire when the Angels traded him to Cleveland for Vinnie

Pestano in August 2014. He was 23 years old at the time, three years removed from hearing his name

called in the fourth round of the 2011 draft.

Pestano, a left-handed relief specialist, was perfectly serviceable for an Angels team en route to its only

division title this decade. He was charged with one run in 12 relief appearances after the trade. But within

a year, Pestano was outrighted off the Angels’ 40-man roster. He hasn’t appeared in a major league game

since.

Meanwhile, Clevinger became a bona fide prospect. The right-hander breezed through the Indians’ system

and debuted in 2016. This year he’s 10-6 with a 3.21 ERA. During the streak, he was 4-0 with a 0.38 ERA.

Clevinger has made 30 major league starts; all other pitchers drafted by the Angels this decade have made

20 starts combined.

To call Clevinger part of the best rotation in baseball history is accurate by one metric. No team’s starting

pitchers have struck out more batters per nine innings than the Indians, at 10.01. (To be fair, this statistic

has been skewed by the era. The top five team-seasons ever are all from this year.)

The Angels will miss former UCLA standout Trevor Bauer (16-9) in the three-game series. Erstwhile reliever

Danny Salazar will start Thursday’s game instead, while Bauer and the rest of the starting rotation will

receive an extra day of rest. Is this merely a playoff-bound team choosing to rest its regulars, or a possible

bit of strategy?

Therein lies the important subplot to this series. If the Angels manage to qualify for the playoffs, win the

wild-card game, and advance to the American League Division Series, a trip to Cleveland could easily

follow.

September 19, 2017 Page 12 of 24

The Indians lead the Houston Astros by a game and a half in the race for the AL’s best record. The team

with the second-best record is all but certain to play the winner of the AL East: the Boston Red Sox or the

New York Yankees. With The Streak in the rear-view mirror, you don’t have to squint to see Angels-Indians

as a postseason preview.

FROM ANGELS.COM

Trout’s defensive marks limited by chances

Statcast data shows he hasn't had many opportunities for tough catches

By Mike Petriello / MLB.com

Despite missing seven weeks due to injury, Mike Trout still very much has a path to win the American

League Most Valuable Player Award, primarily because he's added so much value with his bat

(.315/.452/.638) as the Angels hang around in the AL Wild Card race.

But value, as we know, is about far more than just hitting, and defense matters. So why, after a career

of highlight catches and award nominations, are Trout's fielding numbers down in 2017?

It's true across the board, really. Defensive Runs Saved sees Trout as having saved just one run, as

opposed to six last year. By Ultimate Zone Rating, it's -5.3. And by Outs Above Average, the

newest Statcast™ outfield range metric, he's at -4, tied just for 95th of the 121 outfielders with 100

opportunities. (Compare that to Byron Buxton's MLB-leading +24 OAA for context).

So regardless of which metric you prefer, Trout hasn't been seen as adding a ton of defensive value this

year. In fact, his best catch all year had a relatively high 65 percent Catch Probability. It's good, not

great, by the standards of "a player's best catch."

But why? Generally, the first place you'd look when you see an outfielder decline in production is that

he's gotten slower as he's aged or has been injured, yet that's not the case here. We measure foot

speed with Sprint Speed -- feet per second in a player's fastest one-second window -- where 27 feet per

second is the league average. In 2015, Trout was an above-average 28.6 feet per second; in '16, he was a

nearly-identical 28.4 feet per second; this year, it's still 28.4 feet per second. If he's not Buxton or Billy

Hamilton (30.1 feet per second), he's still fast and is not getting slower. So it's not that.

Nor is it an abundance of mistakes, either. For what little errors are worth, Trout has committed just one

this year, and even that was him letting a grounder skip byrather than him failing to track down a

catchable fly ball.

So what is it? It's all about the difficult opportunities -- or lack thereof -- and what happens on them.

September 19, 2017 Page 13 of 24

Using our new Outs Above Average tools, we can dig into that a little more deeply. Looking at the same

list of 121 outfielders with 100 chances this year, Trout has the highest Expected Catch Probability at 89

percent.

What that means is that based on the difficulty of batted balls hit to him, an average fielder would be

expected to make the play 89 percent of the time. That's well higher than the Major League average of

83 percent, and it's far higher than what Robbie Grossman of the Twins is seeing, as he's all the way at

the bottom, getting opportunities an average fielder would make only 75 percent of the time.

Now this could be due to any number of things. It could be that Trout (or his coaches) has done an

excellent job of pre-play positioning. It could be about the batted balls allowed by Angels pitchers, who

have surrendered the fifth-most homers in baseball, thus removing plenty of potentially difficult

catches. It could also just be about pure random batted-ball luck. In 2016, Trout's Expected Catch

Probability was a more middle-of-the-pack 85 percent.

Trout's Actual Catch Percentage, by the way, is 88 percent, so he's basically performing as an average

outfielder would -- given his 89 percent Expected, he's essentially even in terms of adding or subtracting

value.

But let's break this down into two sets of plays -- easy and hard. For our purposes, we'll call the "easy"

plays ones that have a 70 percent Catch Probability or higher; these are the cans of corn that most

competent Major League outfielders can easily pull in, and they do -- 97 percent of these balls turn into

outs. (If this seems confusing, remember this: catch probability is not evenly distributed, and a

disproportionate number of fly balls have a catch probability above 90 percent.)

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Trout aligns with that perfectly; he's seen 213 of these "easy" plays, and he's caught 209 of them,

converting 98 percent.

September 19, 2017 Page 14 of 24

It's far different, however, with the "hard" plays. As we said, Trout simply hasn't received a ton of

opportunities -- just 25, which ties him for 89th most. Obviously, he missed several weeks of play, and

that's a factor, but it's not just that. Nick Williamshas 33, and he was only called up in late June. Bryce

Harper has 33 as well, and he's missed nearly as much time as Trout did. Put another way, Mookie

Betts gets one of these tougher plays an average of every 1.7 games, Ender Inciarte gets one every 1.8

games, and Trout gets one only every 2.8 games.

Trout has had fewer than half as many opportunities as Inciarte to make a tough play.

So it's that, to start with. Even Buxton can't will a great opportunity to come out of thin air. But it's also

that of the 93 fielders who have been presented with at least 25 of these tougher chances, Trout is one

of only three who hasn't converted one, along with Matt Kemp and Melky Cabrera.

Let's take a look at a few. For example, in early April, Khris Davis hit a liner to center where it appeared

Trout misjudged the wall, pulling up on a ball with a 35 percent Catch Probability.

"Little surprised that he stopped at that one," said the Angels' broadcast. "I thought Trout had an

opportunity."

Earlier this month, Trout had a shot to get a 29 percent ball off the bat of Yuli Gurriel, which we can

show compared to a nearly identical 32 percent Inciarte play from April. Trout pulled up, but Inciarte

aggressively made the play.

If these look like difficult chances, they're supposed to be; we showed, after all, that on the easier plays,

Trout is performing just like everyone else. And of course, within this group, not all are created equally.

For example, one play Trout didn't come up with was this liner by Justin Smoak in April, a ball that had a

mere six percent Catch Probability. It's extremely difficult to make that catch, though not impossible,

since Kevin Pillar made a similar play last summer.

But we can account for that, too, by looking at Expected Catch Percentage on just these more difficult

plays. On the easy plays, the expectation was that Trout would catch 97 percent of the chances, and he

September 19, 2017 Page 15 of 24

caught 98 percent. On these harder plays, the expectation was that he'd catch 23 percent of them, yet

he's caught zero -- tied with Kemp for the largest negative differential. By comparison, the tougher balls

hit to Kevin Kiermaier had a similar expected conversion rate of 30 percent, but he tracked down 56

percent of them, the largest positive improvement, showing how elite he is.

So why don't the metrics favor Trout as much this year? It's mostly because he simply hasn't received

the same opportunities other outfielders have -- and partially because when he has, he's not made the

great plays we're used to seeing from him. Trout is still very much in the AL MVP Award conversation, of

course. It's just that this year, it's his bat that will carry him more than his all-around game.

Inbox: Angels OK if Upton becomes free agent

Beat reporter Maria Guardado answers fans' questions

By Maria Guardado / MLB.com

Even if we do secure a Wild Card spot, what do you believe are the chances of Justin Upton staying next

season?

-- @JDeGeytere via Twitter

It's an interesting question, and one that I don't think will become entirely clear until the end of the

season. I'm sure Upton's level of comfort in Anaheim will factor into his decision, but I think the greater

consideration will be whether his camp believes a bigger payday awaits in the free-agent market. If he

doesn't opt out, the Angels will owe Upton $88.5 million over the next four years. That's a significant

sum, but Upton is also enjoying his finest offensive season to date, batting .280 with a .913 OPS with 31

home runs and a career-high 103 RBIs, so it's not unrealistic to think he could land a better offer as a

free agent. The Halos obviously understood that when they acquired him, so they're prepared for either

scenario.

What do you think our rotation looks like next year?

-- James M., Huntington Beach, Calif.

Will Ricky Nolasco/Jesse Chavez start a game for the Angels in 2018? Is someone returning from injury

to next year's rotation?

-- @LAAngelsBrasil via Twitter

Assuming everyone is healthy, I think my best guess for the Angels' rotation next year would be Garrett

Richards, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemakerand Nick Tropeano. There are plenty of

question marks there, though, since the first three all spent extended time on the disabled list this year

and the latter two will be coming off surgery. If someone gets hurt, I think you could see Parker

Bridwell or JC Ramirez slide back into the rotation, though it's unclear if Ramirez will be available next

year after suffering a partial tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his right elbow.

It's unlikely that Nolasco or Chavez will be back next year, as Chavez will be a free agent and Nolasco has

a $13 million team option that I don't expect the Angels to pick up.

September 19, 2017 Page 16 of 24

Who are some possible starting pitchers available next year? We need a stopper we can depend on.

-- Humberto U., Anaheim

Given the injury concerns surrounding their projected rotation next year, I wouldn't be surprised if the

Angels attempt to bolster their staff via the open market this winter. This year's free-agent class will be

headlined by Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish, though there will also be plenty of mid-tier arms available,

including Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, Andrew Cashner, Trevor Cahill, Jaime Garcia, Miguel Gonzalez, Tyler

Chatwood, Jeremy Hellickson, etc.

Is it the Angels' medical staff, throwing programs for pitchers or both that need to be reevaluated?

These injuries with pitchers are too much.

-- @WestCoastBias87 via Twitter

The Angels actually expanded their training staff and modified pitchers' postgame routines in an

attempt to cut down on injuries this season, so I think it's been more of an extreme case of bad luck

than anything. Pitchers get hurt, and while the Halos have been hit hard over the last two years, they

aren't alone. Just look at the Mets and the Mariners this year, for example.

Outside of Mike Trout and Andrelton Simmons, who do you think makes valuable contributions to the

lineup next year?

-- @oraciofranquez via Twitter

Among the players who are currently under contract with the Angels next season, I think Kole

Calhoun, Luis Valbuena and C.J. Cron have the potential to make the biggest offensive impact. All three

endured slow starts this season, a big reason why the Halos' offense struggled in the first half, but

they've all enjoyed recent surges.

Calhoun batted .207 with a .605 OPS through his first 53 games this year, but he's hit .267 with a .787

OPS since then, which is in line with his career numbers. After hitting .185 with a .585 OPS in the first

half, Valbuena is now batting .213 with an .885 OPS since the All-Star break, with 21 of his 30 hits going

for extra bases (six doubles and 15 home runs). Cron also slumped badly over the first three months and

was demoted twice to Triple-A Salt Lake, but he's been one of the club's hottest hitters since returning,

batting .287 with a .920 OPS and 13 homers in 53 games.

If the trio can match that production over a full season next year, the Angels figure to be in good shape

offensively.

What's going on with Yunel Escobar?

-- @daflowerchica via Twitter

Escobar, who has been out since Aug. 8 with a right oblique strain, is set to start taking swings again on

Tuesday after experiencing a couple setbacks in his rehab. Once he's ready for live pitching, he will likely

go play in some Instructional League games in Arizona. The Angels have said they expect Escobar to

return before the end of the season, but there are only 13 games left to play, so time is running out.

September 19, 2017 Page 17 of 24

Looking to gain WC ground, Halos face Tribe

By Ben Weinrib / MLB.com

Fresh off celebrating their second straight American League Central title, the Indians will begin a six-

game West Coast road trip against a team they could host in the first round of the postseason.

Currently second in the AL West, the Angels are within striking distance of the second Wild Card spot.

With a win in a potential Wild Card Game, they would potentially be slated to face the Indians, who lead

their season series, 3-0.

Mike Clevinger will get the nod for the Indians, and he's in one of the best stretches of his young career.

He has given up just three runs (one earned) over 23 2/3 innings in his past four starts. However,

Clevinger faced the Angels once before this year, and he gave up a season-high six runs (five earned)

over 4 1/3 innings.

Opposing him will be Tyler Skaggs, who is coming off perhaps his best start of the season. Last time out,

the 26-year-old lefty held the high-powered Astros scoreless over seven innings with three hits, one

walk, and five strikeouts.

Three things to know about this game

• Both Skaggs and Clevinger use a curveball as one of their top secondary offerings. Skaggs has been

great at limiting hard contact on the pitch, as his 82.8-mph average exit velocity on the pitch ranks 18th

among 90 qualified pitchers, according to Statcast. Clevinger, however, has an average exit velocity of

89.0 mph against his curveball, which is ninth-worst.

• When Clevinger faced the Angels in July, Luis Valbuena and Kole Calhoun both took him deep.

However, Clevinger has been able to avoid the long ball lately with none given up in his past four starts

and just one multi-homer game in nine starts since facing the Angels.

• The Indians' lineup is full of switch-hitters, but Skaggs doesn't have severe platoon splits this season.

Righties are hitting .260 and slugging .433 against him, while left-handers are hitting .271 and slugging

.390 against him.

FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Red-hot Clevinger, Indians take on Angels

Associated Press

ANAHEIM, Calif. -- The last time Cleveland Indians right-hander Mike Clevinger faced the Los Angeles

Angels, he had his worst start of the season.

September 19, 2017 Page 18 of 24

Clevinger, who will take the mound on Tuesday night at Angel Stadium, gave up six runs (five earned) in

4 1/3 innings in Cleveland's 11-7 win on July 25. It also happened to be the game that Clevinger was told

he had to change his glove.

Major league rules state that a pitcher cannot use a glove that is gray or white, so Clevinger's gray glove

was a violation. Umpire crew chief Bill Miller told Indians manager Terry Francona and Clevinger that the

pitcher had to switch out the glove after the first inning.

Following a scoreless inning and a change of gloves, Clevinger gave up four runs in the third and another

two runs in the fifth before being removed from the game. Cleveland's 7-0 lead was cut to 7-6, and the

game eventually went to extra innings. The Indians won on an 11th-inning, walk-off grand slam by Edwin

Encarnacion.

"I don't want to make excuses," Clevinger told cleveland.com, "but on a night when I didn't have my

best stuff, (changing gloves) didn't help."

Francona said it wasn't the Angels that alerted Miller about the glove.

"That came from (Miller)," Francona told cleveland.com. "I think what happened is that the last time we

were in Baltimore, somebody chewed on (Miller's) ear because he didn't say something. That was what

he told me. He said, 'I'm not trying to stir anything up. I just don't want to get yelled at.'"

Neither Clevinger nor the Indians are the same as they were on July 25. Back then, Cleveland was in first

place, but only 1 1/2 up and just eight games over .500. Now, the Indians have won 24 of 25 and have

clinched the American League Central, and Clevinger (10-5, 3.21 ERA) has won five of his past seven

decisions.

He also has won four starts in a row, during which he allowed only one earned run (three runs total) in

23 2/3 innings.

In his career against the Angels, Clevinger is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts.

Tyler Skaggs (2-5, 4.37 ERA) will start for Los Angeles, coming off his best start of the season. He shut out

the Houston Astros on three hits and one walk over seven innings of a 9-1 win on Wednesday. It was his

first victory since he missed 3 1/2 months with a strained oblique muscle.

Skaggs said big differences in his success against the Astros were his two-seam fastball and his overall

command of all his pitches.

"(The two-seamer is) completely different from my four-seamer," he told the Orange County Register.

"It's a little slower, moves a little better. I also threw some good changeups. I threw the curveball for a

strike. When I can throw it for a strike, it opens up everything."

While the Indians have already wrapped up the division crown, the series will be huge for the Angels:

Los Angeles is 1 1/2 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the second AL wild card.

September 19, 2017 Page 19 of 24

Cleveland does have something to play for, as the Indians hold a 1 1/2-game lead on Houston for the

best record in the AL.

FROM ESPN.COM

From wild-card chases to MVP races: Your guide to season's final two weeks

By David Schoenfield / ESPN Senior Writer

Two weeks left in the regular season. Stay focused. You're not going to win your fantasy football league

anyway. Here's a quick rundown on the important races to follow:

Division races still up for grabs

The New York Yankees last led the American League East on July 31, but have been closer than three

games on just two days since Aug. 4, both times 2.5 games behind. You get the feeling that, if they could

get it down to two games, then maybe the Boston Red Sox feel that little added bit of pressure. The

Yankees have gone 11-5 in September, but the Red Sox have gone 9-6. So Boston's lead is three games

with 13 remaining. Remaining schedules (of course, the schedule-makers couldn't do the fun thing and

schedule two Boston-New York series the final two weeks):

Yankees -- Minnesota (3), at Toronto (3), Kansas City (1), Tampa Bay (3), Toronto (3)

Prediction: Tie. We deserve a tie somewhere, somehow. A tiebreaker game would be played Oct. 2, a

Monday, with the loser then hosting the wild-card game on Oct. 3. Who would start that game? Right

now, our pitching schedules have Chris Sale in line to start the final Sunday of the regular season, but it's

much more likely he goes Wednesday-Monday-Saturday, which would give him four days of rest before

the division series starts on Oct. 5. In other words, no matter how the rotation falls, he's unlikely to be in

line to start either a division tiebreaker game OR a potential wild-card game.

Meanwhile, in the National League Central, the Chicago Cubs basically eliminated the St. Louis

Cardinals with a three-game sweep this weekend. Their lead over the Milwaukee Brewers is four and the

Cubs do play four in Milwaukee the final week -- and remember that the Brewers swept the Cubs at

Wrigley last weekend.

Prediction: Cubs take it.

American League second wild card

Well, so much for our seven-way tie. This has basically turned into a two-team chase between

the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels. The Twins are just 8-8 in their past 16 games, but in this

race to mediocrity, that has been good enough to keep a two-game lead over the Angels. That's not

even a joke. September records for wild-card contenders:

September 19, 2017 Page 20 of 24

Twins: 8-8

Mariners: 8-8

Angels: 7-8

Royals: 8-9

Rangers: 7-9

Rays: 6-9

Orioles: 5-11

Good job, everyone!

Remaining schedules:

Twins -- at Yankees (3), at Detroit (4), Cleveland (3), Detroit (3)

Angels -- Cleveland (3), at Houston (3), at White Sox (4), Seattle (3)

The Twins get seven games against the Tigers. That should help them hold on.

Prediction: Twins

National League second wild card

That road trip to Los Angeles and Arizona probably saved the Colorado Rockies' season -- they won all

four games in L.A. and the first two in Arizona. With a 2.5-game lead over the Brewers, their odds of

winning the second wild card register about 88 percent. They head out on another road trip, but it's to

San Francisco for two games and San Diego for four, before finishing up at home against the Marlins and

Dodgers. The Brewers are without ace Jimmy Nelsonthe rest of the way and have tough series against

the Cubs and Cardinals.

Prediction: Rockies hold on.

Home-field advantage

In the AL, the Cleveland Indians are 1.5 games up on the Houston Astros. In the NL, the Los Angeles

Dodgers have recovered from losing 16 of 17 and are six up on the Nationals. Cleveland's next three

series are at the Angels, at the Mariners and hosting the Twins, so no easy ones there, but they're so hot

right now they should hold off the Astros. They also hold the tiebreaker edge if they finish with the same

record, having won the season series 5-1.

Prediction: Indians, Dodgers

September 19, 2017 Page 21 of 24

American League Cy Young race

I was listening to the Kansas City Royals-Indians game on the radio on Sunday as Corey Kluber was

spinning seven shutout innings and, at one point, the Indians broadcaster cheered that "Chris Sale has

had a terrific season, but Corey Kluber has had a better season." My first thought was that enthusiasm

may have been ripe with a little homerism, but it does feel like Kluber has the momentum. He now owns

a notable lead in ERA and has cut into Sale's lead in innings and strikeouts:

Kluber: 17-4, 2.35 ERA, 191.2 IP, 129 H, 34 BB, 252 SO, 7.1 bWAR, 6.5 fWAR

Sale: 16-7, 2.86 ERA, 201.1 IP, 153 H, 41 BB, 287 SO, 5.9 bWAR, 7.6 fWAR

Sale should get those final three starts, but Kluber may get only two more starts -- with an off day on

Monday, he probably starts again on Saturday and then once the final week. If Sale gets to 300

strikeouts that could help his case, and he also owns the lead in FanGraphs WAR. It wouldn't surprise if

Terry Francona backs off Kluber's pitch counts a little bit as well, although he'll have plenty of time off

between his final start and the first game of the division series. Point being: I think it's still basically a

coin flip. When Kluber won in 2014, he barely edged out Felix Hernandez. This one will be close as well.

Prediction: Kluber

National League Cy Young race

Max Scherzer has allowed 11 runs in his past two outings, which suddenly opened up this race. Zack

Greinke has had a run of outstanding starts while Clayton Kershaw leads in ERA and is tied with Greinke

in wins. Those seem to be the top three guys, with apologies to Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg.

And don't ignore Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, who is 5-0 with 38 saves, a 1.27 ERA and 101 strikeouts

against just seven walks. Relievers don't get the support they once did, so he's probably a long shot.

Prediction: Kershaw. He starts Monday, so should get three more starts, which gives him a chance at 20

wins. If he gets 20 while leading in ERA, I think that may push him over the top in a split vote, even

though he won't come close to 200 innings because of the 40-day DL stint.

American League MVP race

Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor got a lot of play for their unbelievable production during Cleveland's

22-game win streak, but this still looks like Jose Altuve's award thanks to his .348/.409/.556 line. He

leads Mike Trout and Aaron Judge in both Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs WAR (with Ramirez

fourth in both). My only hesitancy is that while MVP voters have gotten a lot smarter, they still naturally

side to the RBI guys and Altuve has only 77 RBIs. That seems a little weird since he has hit third in the

order almost all season -- yet he's .348 with men on and .310 with runners in scoring position.

Prediction: Altuve. Trout's only chance is if the Angels make the playoffs. Even then, he'll likely fall short

as voters can't look past the 45 games he missed.

September 19, 2017 Page 22 of 24

National League MVP race

No consensus has developed here, although public opinion seems to have narrowed the field

to Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and maybe Anthony

Rendon (Joey Votto will get a lot of top-five votes, but with the Reds mired in last place, he is an unlikely

winner). Stanton had possibly emerged as the favorite despite playing for a non-playoff team, but he has

hit .170 in September with three home runs, so his pursuit of reaching 60 is in jeopardy. If he gets to 60,

maybe he's back to being the front-runner. Can he hit six in 13 games? The Marlins do have three games

in Arizona and three in Colorado, two homer-friendly parks. The two Rockies need to make the playoffs

to have a chance.

Prediction: Goldschmidt. With Arenado right behind. They're 1-2 in RBIs. Arenado has the amazing

defense, but also carries the Coors Field anchor (although he has hit a solid .289/.359/.543 on the road).

Goldschmidt has a much higher OBP without playing half his games at Coors. Arenado has the best

chance to do something dramatic these final days to help the Rockies clinch a playoff spot. Another big

moment -- like his three-run homer off Kershaw that kicked off that four-game sweep of L.A. -- could get

him the extra credit he needs.

FROM SPORTING NEWS

AL MVP: Jose Altuve is clear favorite, but race for second is star-studded

By Ryan Fagan

The National League MVP race is crowded. We looked at that field of candidates here.

In the American League, though? It’s pretty much a one-Astro race.

Jose Altuve is putting the finishes on yet another incredible season for Houston. Remember when we

were all amazed that a guy listed at 5-6 could be an impact player in the majors? Those days feel like a

long, long time ago.

At this point, Altuve has established himself as one of the best players in the sport, period. He leads the

majors with a .348 batting average, and he’s going to lead the AL in hits for the fourth consecutive

season. He’s tops in stolen bases (31), to go with 23 home runs, a .409 on-base percentage, a .956 OPS

and an AL-best 165 OPS-plus. He leads AL position players in WAR, both in Baseball-Reference’s version

(7.8 rWAR) and FanGraph’s calculation (7.0 fWAR).

He finished third in last year’s AL MVP race and he’s going to win for the first time this year. So here’s

real question in the AL: Who will finish second to Altuve? The list of candidates is long and star-studded.

September 19, 2017 Page 23 of 24

Mike Trout, Angels

Why he could finish second: Before he got hurt, we were watching Trout put together his best season in

the majors, which is kind of amazing considering he’s finished first or second in the AL MVP race each of

his five full seasons. And even though he missed a month-and-a-half of 2017 with that thumb injury, he’s

still third among AL position players in fWAR (6.2) and fourth in rWAR (6.2). That’s kind of insane. As for

his numbers, he’s slashing .315/.452/.638, with 29 homers, 21 stolen bases and a 1.090 OPS in 102

games this season.

Corey Kluber, Indians

Why he could finish second: He leads all MLB players in Baseball-Reference WAR, at 7.9 (a smidge

above Altuve’s 7.8). That’s a good starting point, eh? Kluber had an up-and-down start to 2017, but in

his 21 starts since coming off the DL at the beginning of June, the right-hander has a 1.69 ERA with 211

strikeouts in 154 1/3 innings. For the season, he’s at 2.35 with an average of 11.9 strikeouts per nine

innings. He has three shutouts this year; the Cardinals and Twins are the only TEAMS this year with at

least three combined shutouts.

Aaron Judge, Yankees

Why he could finish second: Judge’s post-All Star funk dropped him out of the conversation for the top

spot, but his overall season is still very worthy of consideration near the top of the ballot. He still leads

the AL with 43 homers and 116 runs scored, with a .413 on-base percentage and .997 OPS. And it’s hard

to imagine the Yankees are in great playoff position without Judge’s breakthrough rookie campaign.

Chris Sale, Red Sox

Why he could finish second: It might be impossible to overstate Sale’s value to Boston this year. He

made an immediate impact — an 0.91 ERA in his first four starts — after the offseason trade and has

been a rock in a Boston rotation that’s dealt with disappointing seasons from former Cy Young winners

David Price and Rick Porcello. He leads all pitchers in fWAR, at 7.6 (Kluber is second at 6.9) and has 287

strikeouts in 201 1/3 innings, with a 2.86 ERA and 2.31 FIP.

Jose Ramirez/Francisco Lindor, Indians

Why either could finish second: These guys are just so very good. Lindor has been an established star

for a couple of years now, and he’s doubled his career high in home runs (from 15 to 30), while still

stealing 14 bases and posting a career-best .847 OPS and playing outstanding defense at shortstop. Also

worth noting that Cleveland is 33-6 since manager Terry Francona moved Lindor into the leadoff spot on

a permanent basis in early August.

And Ramirez? He’s a fascinating rising star. And I say that not because he hasn’t yet become a star but

because I’m pretty sure we haven’t seen him stop rising. For the season, Ramirez is batting .314 with a

.944 OPS, 27 homers, 75 RBIs, 15 stolen bases and an AL-best 50 doubles. And he’s done this while

splitting time between third base (86 games) and second base (54 starts). Oh, and remember what we

September 19, 2017 Page 24 of 24

said about Lindor moving into the leadoff spot? Francona put Ramirez permanently into the No. 3 spot

one game earlier.

Others in the conversation …

Andrelton Simmons is second in rWAR among AL position players, at 6.7. He’s long been regarded as

baseball’s best defensive shortstop, but he’s continued his improvement at the plate with the Angels (14

homers, .763 OPS, 19 stolen bases), which is a big reason his WAR is so high. If Carlos Correa had stayed

healthy, the former No. 1 overall pick would have been up near his teammate Altuve, but he’s only

played 98 games this season — with a .304 average, .906 OPS and 21 homers. George Springer, with his

32 homers and .908 OPS, is another Astros player you’ll see receive votes. Gary Sanchez missed a month

early this season, but with 31 homers and an .887 OPS in 112 games for the Yankees, he’ll likely be

named down on a ballot or two.