September 2017 Commodity Market Outlook - uaex.edu · Commodity Market Outlook Supply and Demand for Field Crops September 2017 H. Scott Stiles Instructor and Extension Economist

Commodity Market Outlook: Supply and Demand for Field Crops

September 2017

Commodity Market Outlook

Supply and Demand for Field Crops September 2017

H. Scott Stiles

Instructor and Extension Economist

University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture 870.972.2481

[email protected]

University of Arkansas, United States Department of Agriculture and County Governments

Cooperating. The Division of Agriculture offers its programs to all eligible persons regardless

of race, color, national origin, religion, gender, age, disability, marital or veteran status, or

any other legally protected status, and is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.

USDA September 2017 Supply/Demand Report corn, soybeans, wheat

USDA September

2017

USDA August

2017

month-to-month

change

USDA 2017 Yield: bushels per acre

Corn 169.9 169.5 + .4

Soybeans 49.9 49.4 + .5

USDA 2017 Production: billion bushels

Corn 14.184 14.153 + .031

Soybeans 4.431 4.381 + .050

USDA 2017 Ending Stocks: billion bushels

Corn 2.335 2.273 + .062

Soybeans .475 .475 0

Wheat .933 .933 0

Source: USDA, September 2017.

USDA September 2017 Supply/Demand Report rice, cotton

USDA September

2017

USDA August

2017

month-to-month

change

USDA 2017 Production:

Long-Grain (million cwt.) 127.1 132.4 - 5.3

Medium-Grain (million cwt.) 52.6 54.0 - 1.4

Cotton (million bales) 21.76 20.55 +1.21

USDA 2017 Ending Stocks:

Long-Grain (million cwt.) 16.1 17.7 - 1.6

Medium-Grain (million cwt.) 9.3 9.5 - .2

Cotton (million bales) 6.00 5.80 +.2


Soybeans

September 2017

USDA 2016/17

September

USDA 2017/18

August

USDA 2017/18

September

Million bushels

Beginning Stocks 197 370 345

Production 4,307 4,381 4,431

Total Supply 4,528 4,777 4,801

Crush 1,895 1,940 1,940

Exports 2,170 2,225 2,250

Seed & Residual 118 136 136

Total Use 4,183 4,301 4,326

Ending Stocks 345 475 475

Average Farm Price ($/bu.) $9.50 $9.30 $9.20

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use

Source: USDA.

U.S. Soybeans, Key Supply-Side Adjustments

2017/18 U.S. Soybean Yield

49.4

49.9

49.1

49.2

49.3

49.4

49.5

49.6

49.7

49.8

49.9

50

August September

bu

./ac.

2017/18 U.S. Soybean Production

4.381

4.431

4.2

4.24

4.28

4.32

4.36

4.4

4.44

4.48

August September

bil

lio

n b

u.


U.S. Soybean Exports / China Soybean Imports

1.317

1.638 1.843

1.942 2.170 2.250 2.200

2.585

2.879 3.058

3.380 3.491

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 est. 2017 proj.

bil

lio

n b

u.

marketing year

U.S. exports China imports

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service .

U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks 2006 – 2017 projected

573

92

191 197

345

475

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

mil

lio

n b

us

he

ls

marketing year


U.S. Soybean Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 2008 – 2017 projected

$14.40

$13.00

$9.50 $9.20

2.6%

8.2%

11.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

$8.50

$9.50

$10.50

$11.50

$12.50

$13.50

$14.50

$15.50

sto

cks-u

se %

$/b

u.

avg. producer price stocks-use %


CBOT November 2017 Soybean Futures daily chart

Source: Barchart.com Inc. © 2017

Rice

September 2017

USDA 2016/17

September

USDA 2017/18

August

USDA 2017/18

September

Million cwt.

Beginning Stocks 22.7 31.3 31.0

Production 166.5 132.4 127.1

Total Supply 209.4 184.7 179.1

Domestic & Residual 99.7 90 88

Exports 78.7 77 75

Total Use 178.4 167 163

Ending Stocks 31.0 17.7 16.1


U.S. Long-Grain Supply and Use

Source: USDA.

U.S. Long-Grain Production

131.90 133.40

166.50

127.1

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

180.00

190.00

mil

lio

n c

wt.

marketing year

Source: USDA-ERS.

U.S. Long-Grain Ending Stocks 2008 – 2017 projected

16.2

31.3

16.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

mil

lio

n c

wt.

marketing year


U.S. Long-Grain Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 2008 – 2017 projected

$6.71 $6.93

$4.33

$5.63

11.9%

10.3% 9.9% 9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

sto

cks-u

se %

$/b

u.



November 2017 CBOT Rough Rice Futures weekly continuation

$13.44 Oct. 2015 high


Corn

September 2017

USDA 2016/17

September

USDA 2017/18

August

USDA 2017/18

September

Million bushels

Beginning Stocks 1,737 2,370 2,350

Production 15,148 14,153 14,184

Total Supply 16,940 16,573 16,585

Feed & Residual 5,425 5,450 5,475

Food, Seed, Industrial 6,870 7,000 6,925

Exports 2,295 1,850 1,850

Total Use 14,590 14,300 14,250

Ending Stocks 2,350 2,273 2,335


U.S. Corn Supply and Use

Source: USDA.

U.S. Corn, Key Supply-Side Adjustments

2017/18 U.S. Corn Yield

169.5

169.9

169

169.4

169.8

170.2

August September

bu

./ac.

2017/18 U.S. Corn Production

14.153

14.184

14.12

14.16

14.2

August September

bil

lio

n b

u.


U.S. Corn Ending Stocks 2008 – 2017 projected

1.232

1.731 1.737

2.350 2.335

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016est

2017proj

bil

lio

n b

us

he

ls

marketing year


U.S. Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 2008 – 2017 projected

$6.89

$3.35 $3.20 7.4%

16.1% 16.4%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

sto

cks-u

se %

$/b

u.



CBOT December 2017 Corn Futures daily chart


Cotton

September 2017

USDA 2016/17

September

USDA 2017/18

August

USDA 2017/18

September

million bales

Production 17.17 20.55 21.76

Total Supply 20.98 23.36 24.52

• Mill Use 3.25 3.35 3.35

• Exports 14.92 14.20 14.90

Total Use 18.17 17.55 18.25

Ending Stocks 2.75 5.80 6.00

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use

Source: USDA.

U.S. Cotton Production 2006 – 2017 projected

21.6

12.9

17.2

21.8

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

mil

lio

n b

ale

s

marketing year

Source: USDA-ERS.

U.S. Cotton Exports 2010 – 2017 projected

14.38

9.15

14.92 14.90

5.00

7.00

9.00

11.00

13.00

15.00

17.00

mil

lio

n b

ale

s

marketing year Source: USDA-ERS.

U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks 2008 – 2017 projected

6.34

2.75

6.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

mil

lio

n b

ale

s

marketing year


U.S. Cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) 2008 – 2017 projected

$0.61 $0.60

38.0%

30.2%

32.9%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

$0.45

$0.55

$0.65

$0.75

$0.85

$0.95

$1.05

sto

cks-u

se %

$/l

b.



December 2017 Cotton Futures daily chart


Wheat

September 2017

CBOT July 2018 Wheat Futures daily chart


U.S. SRW Total Demand Trend 2013 – 2017 projected

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

mil

lio

n b

u.

marketing year

seed

exports

feed

food

Source: USDA-ERS.

U.S. SRW Demand by Category 2013 – 2017 projected

171

162 147

55

283

90

113

229

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

mil

lio

n b

u.

food & seed feed exports carry-out

Source: USDA-ERS.

U.S. SRW Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-Use %

242 229

69% 75%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016est.

2017proj.

% s

tocks-u

se

milli

on

bu

.

marketing year Source: USDA-ERS.

Commodity Calendar

• The next USDA supply/demand report is

October 12.

Documents

September 2017 Commodity Market Outlook - uaex.edu · Commodity Market Outlook Supply and Demand for Field Crops September 2017 H. Scott Stiles Instructor and Extension Economist