SESAR Single European Sky ATM Researchthe former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Malta Moldova Monaco the Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Serbia-Montenegro Slovakia Slovenia

1

SESAR

Single European Sky ATM Research

Dave YOUNG

EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre

13th February 2007

European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

2

FI

GEAM

AZ

EE

UA

MD

TR

CY

FR

LV

LT

BE

NL

DE

GB

IE BY

RO

AL

BG

GR

CH

IT

AT HU

S-M

ESPT

DK

NO SE

PL

CZ

MTMA DZ TN

KZ

RU

LU SK

SIHR

M

C

BH

MK

Albania

Armenia

Austria

Belgium

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Bulgaria

Croatia

Cyprus

the Czech Republic

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Lithuania

Luxembourg

the former Yugoslav

Republic of Macedonia

Malta

Moldova

Monaco

the Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Serbia-Montenegro

Slovakia

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

Ukraine

United Kingdom

EUROCONTROL

37 Member States37 Member States

3

Strategy ATM 2000 +

Managing Agent

Route Charges

Collection

Training institute

Training engineering

IFPS

Flow Management

UAC for DE, NL, LU, BE

UAC for CZ, SK, HU, AU,

SL, HR, BiH

Regulatory Unit

R&D for ATM

Performance

Monitoring

Safety Regulation

EUROCONTROL

Director GeneralDirector General

CRCO

Brussels

CRCO

BrusselsEATMP

Brussels

EATMP

Brussels

CFMU

Brussels

CFMU

BrusselsEEC

Bretigny

EEC

Bretigny

M-UAC

Maastricht

M-UAC

MaastrichtIANS

Luxembourg

IANS

Luxembourg

CEATS

Praha, Budapest

CEATS

Praha, BudapestSupport Services

Brussels

Support Services

Brussels

RU

Brussels

RU

Brussels

PRU

Brussels

PRU

BrusselsSRU

Brussels

SRU

Brussels

4

Objective of Europe's Air Traffic Management

System

To harmonise and integrate Air Navigation Services in Europe, aiming at the creation

of a uniform Air Traffic Management System for civil and military users, in order to

achieve the safe, orderly, expeditious and economic flow of traffic throughout

Europe. (Article 1 of EUROCONTROL's Revised Convention)

EUROCONTROL's membership includes 37 States and the European Community

Overarching Objective:

5

Current Performance of Air Traffic Management in Europe

Excellent performance, in a context of traffic growth:

IATA: 1995-2004 Western-Built Jet Hull Loss rate

1.20

1.321.27

1.34

1.27

1.111.05

0.94

0.87

0.78

0.65

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

HL/M SEctors

Hull Losses / Million Sectors

10 Year Average

� Safety ensured

� Delays eliminated

� Costs reined in

6

An Evolving European Aviation

Landscape

Society� Noise &

Climate change

� Safety

� Security

� Sustainable

growth

� Mobility

Airspace Users� High cost pressure (+fuel)

� 9/11 and economic downturn

� Low cost airlines

� VLJs, UAVs

Airports� Aviation: just a business

ANSPs� Corporatisation/privatisation

� Under pressure of users

Supply Industry� Concentration

� Global

Air Traffic forecast to double by 2025

7

Need for a Future Air Traffic Management

System

To address the European Challenges for predicted Air Transport Growth

� Enable a 3-fold increase in capacity

which will also reduce delays, both on the

ground and in the air,

� Improve the safety performance by a

factor of 10,

� Enable a 10% reduction in the effects

flights have on the environment and

� Provide ATM services at a cost to the

airspace users which is at least 50% less.

Capacity

with

planned

system

Capacity

with

current

system

Traffic

}Gap:

need for

future sys

tem

Closing the capacity gap

A shift towards a new paradigm is required

8

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004-Planned

Industry

Tax payers

Users charges(National)

Tax payers (EC)

Users charges(EUROCONTROL)

Origin of ATM R&D Relative Budget 1996-2004

46 45 5364 70 59

72 77 82

32 32

42 2742

39

55 4454

81

113

74

73

55

43 44

51

19

17

12 933

34

22

23

23

2818

25

83

1213

122611

32

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

M€

Source draftARDEP 2005

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004-Planned

Industry

Tax payers


Tax payers (EC)


46 45 5364 70 59

72 7782

32 32

42 27

42

39

55 44

5481

113

74

73

55

4344

51

19

17

12 933

34

22

23

23

28

18

25

83

1213

12

2611

32

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

M€

Origin of ATM R&D Relative Budget 1996-2004Origin of ATM R&D Relative Budget 1996-2004

23% 21% 20%

31% 32% 31%34%

40% 37%

16%15% 16%

13%19% 21%

26%

23%24%

41%

37%

43%

36%

33% 29%20%

22% 23%

7%8%

6%6%

4%

16% 15% 13%11% 11% 12% 13%

9% 11%

5%12%

6%6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004-Planned

Relative budget

Industry

Tax payers


Tax payers (EC)


Funding of European ATC Research

Because of the corporatisation of ANSPs and pressure on ATC costs the trend has been reduction of

national R&D budgets paid by users' charges totally offset by CEC /FP budget increase

Currently, European R&D in ATM = 200 M€/year:

� 70 % European Commission + EUROCONTROL + Industry

� 30 % Others (national ATS providers and R&D Centres)

9

A black mark for European R&D

We (research community) are criticised as there

seems to be a missing link between

successes and implementation**

� R&D perceived as being conducted in a

fragmented manner

� Not addressing identified needs

� Lacking robust user requirements

� Insufficient Business planning analysis and/or

Safety case work

**SESAR D1 Conclusions

10

Europe at Work

European Institutions are taking action now

to anticipate the Air Traffic Management challenges

of the future

11

A European ATM Master Plan To Unlock Air

Transport

� Converging Industry, EC &

EUROCONTROL

� Needs:

� Turn off fragmented approach

� Accelerate ATM evolution in

response to challenges

� Synchronise & integrate

plans from research to

operations

� Synchronise airborne and

ground deployments

� Converging Industry, EC &

EUROCONTROL

� Needs:

� Turn off fragmented approach

� Accelerate ATM evolution in

response to challenges

� Synchronise & integrate

plans from research to

operations

� Synchronise airborne and

ground deployments

Address European needs and global interoperability

12

SESAR Definition Phase

50 partners and associates from the Air Transport Industry

Representing different operational & business needs

BUT

Committed to a partnership for the best possible Future System

50 partners and associates from the Air Transport Industry50 partners and associates from the Air Transport Industry

Representing different operational & business needsRepresenting different operational & business needs

BUT BUT

Committed to a partnership for the best possible Future SystemCommitted to a partnership for the best possible Future System

Under Project management responsibility of EUROCONTROL

Co-funded by EC through TEN-T

Industry wide consortium

with substantial EUROCONTROL effort contribution

This structure ceases to exist at the end of the Definition Phase.

Under Project management responsibility of EUROCONTROL

Co-funded by EC through TEN-T

Industry wide consortium

with substantial EUROCONTROL effort contribution

This structure ceases to exist at the end of the Definition Phase.

€ 60 Million

2 years

300 man-years

€ 60 Million

2 years

300 man-years

13

Definition Phase Study : what it will deliver

� Propose detailed specifications of the future system ...... set initial set initial

indicative targets for Key Performance Areas indicative targets for Key Performance Areas

� Impose ONE technical solution...... propose one single functional propose one single functional

architecture architecture

� Get commitment from all major players ... build a partnership build a partnership

involving all stakeholdersinvolving all stakeholders

� End with a fully validated concept element ..... define a detailed define a detailed

plan for validation and testplan for validation and test

But above all : a roadmap that is acceptable and supported as THE

European way forward for ATM modernisation by all stakeholders of the

Air Transport Industry

Basis for subsequent commitment, financing and implementation

14

European ATM Roadmap2005 2010 2015 2020

2005 2010 2015 2020

DeploymentIndustrialisation

Foundation

DeploymentValidation Development

SESAR Concept

Building upon an evolving Institutional Framework (SES Regulation)

DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation

Collaborative – High Performance

Definition Development Deployment

15

A Paradigm Shift

ProceduralEstimate the

current and

planned a/c

positions

Past

RadarKnow the

current and

estimate

planned a/c

positions

Today

TrajectoryKnow & share

the current and

planned a/c

positions

A320

Future

16

The Future System Features

� Airspace configured according to operations

� Automated control functions

� 4-D Trajectories

� Air-Ground datalink

� System Wide Information Management (SWIM)

� Advanced airport tools

� Satellite navigation

� Autonomous airborne separation

17

Air

Transport

Framework:

The

Current

Situation

Air

Transport

Framework:

The

Current

Situation

ATM

Performance

Targets

ATM

Performance

Targets

SESAR Definition Phase

Main Milestones and Deliverables

ATM

Target

Concept

ATM

Target

Concept

ATM

Deployment

Sequence

ATM

Deployment

Sequence

ATM

Master Plan

ATM

Master Plan

Work

Programme

for

2008-2013

Work

Programme

for

2008-2013

D2D2D3D3

D4D4D5D5

D6D6

We are here

July 06 Dec 06 June 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 March 08

D1D1

18

SESAR Development Phase

� Governance: key to success

� Oversight by States (through EC and EUROCONTROL)

� Clear Funding Mechanisms

� Efficient Decision Making / Professional Management

� Simple Cost-effective Structure

� Transparency, Involvement & Buy-In

� EC to set up a “JU” (Art 171 of Treaty)

� private funding or 3rd Countries

� EC – EUROCONTROL founding members

� EUROCONTROL Agency providing Expertise and Facilities

� Set up to be reconsidered for

the Deployment Phase (2014+)

Execute the plan - Channel and integrate European Research

19

One view of the potential Research for

SESAR

� What do we mean by Research for SESAR ?

� Some ideas on the main potential Research activities.

� A paradigm shift in the organisation of Research in

Europe.

20

From a vision to implementation:

Research - a mandatory step

D 3

06/2007

Concept

selection

Deployment

2013 2020

Systems and Equipments

development

R &

D

Concept Validation

Technology development

and Validation

21

D 3

06/2007

Concept

selection

Deployment

2013 2020


development

R &

D

Concept Validation


and Validation

Potential Research Activities

22

Potential Research Activities Concept Validation

The main objective of Concept Validation

is to provide evidence, or otherwise, that

the SESAR 2020 Concept of Operation:

� is “safe in principle”

� can attain the “proposed level of

performance”

� is environmentally efficient

� and is “operationally viable”

23

Performance and Environment

impact assessment

Safety assessment

• New concept will impact operators

& organisation:

• CDM for 4D trajectory

management from strategic

planning to pre-tactical de-

confliction

• New repartition of roles for

Separation Management,

• …

=>• Validation of working procedures:

• HIL simulations

• Prototyping

• HF experimentations

• Validation of collaborative

processes:

• Modelisation of actors

behaviours

• Trials with real data

• Validation of optimisation

algorithms:

• Optimisation of trajectories

• Controllers Tools

Operational viability assessment


Pilots

ATC

Civ/MilAOC/Mil

LANDSIDE

AIRSIDE

The

Human at the

centre of the

concept

PilotsPilots

ATC

Civ/Mil

ATC

Civ/MilAOC/MilAOC/Mil

LANDSIDE

AIRSIDE

LANDSIDE

AIRSIDE

The

Human at the

centre of the

concept


24

Safety assessment


impact Assessment

•Provide the evidence that the

system can attain the

required level of

performances:

• Capacity X3

• Environmental impact -

10%

• Predictability -1mn/+3mn

•Using 2020 traffic forecast:

• Analytical modelling,

• F/T simulation,

• Noise and emission

modelling,

• ATFM modelling

• …



impact assessment


25


impact assessment


Safety Assessment

•Provide evidence that the

system can maintain today's

level of safety with

tomorrows traffic:

• Safety level X10

•Apportioning TLS:

• Using a holistic top-down

modelling (Integrated Risk

Picture-IRP)

•As a first cycle of certification

process:

• Following EUROCAE /

RTCA process

Safety assessment

SPR Safety &Performance

Requirement

Specification

Aircraft ANSP User

INTEROP InteroperabilityRequirement

Specification

SARPS

ICAO

SARPS

ICAO

ETSO EuropeanTechnical

Standards

Order Environmental Conditions Specifications

Development Methodology Specifications

Platform Customisation

Suppliers “Options” & “Add-Ons”

Implementing Rules

Community Specification

Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational

Performance Specification

Ground System

Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Air System

European

Equipment

Specification

European

Equipment

Specification

Concept Validation

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

ED 78A


Requirement

Specification

Aircraft ANSP User


Requirement

Specification

Aircraft ANSP User


Specification


Specification

SARPS

ICAO

SARPS

ICAO


Standards

Order


Standards



Environmental Conditions Specifications






Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Ground System

Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Ground System

Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Air System

Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Air System

European

Equipment

Specification

European

Equipment

Specification

Concept Validation

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

Concept Validation

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

ED 78A

Taxiw

ay collision

Mid-air

collision

Runw

ay collision

WV

CFIT

Fault Tree Model

Influence Model

IRPRisk Classification

Taxiw

ay collision

Mid-air

collision

Runw

ay collision

WV

CFIT

Fault Tree Model

Influence Model



Requirement

Specification

Aircraft ANSP User


Specification

SARPS

ICAO

SARPS

ICAO


Standards





Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Ground System

Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Air System

European

Equipment

Specification

European

Equipment

Specification

Concept Validation

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

ED 78A


Requirement

Specification

Aircraft ANSP User


Requirement

Specification

Aircraft ANSP User


Specification


Specification

SARPS

ICAO

SARPS

ICAO


Standards

Order


Standards



Environmental Conditions Specifications






Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Ground System

Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Ground System

Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Air System

Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Implementing Rules


Guidance Material

MOPS

Minimum Operational


Air System

European

Equipment

Specification

European

Equipment

Specification

Concept Validation

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

Concept Validation

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

OHA

Operational

Hazard

Analysis

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

Allocate Safety

Objectives &

Requirements

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

OSED &

Operational

Performance

Analysis

ED 78A

Taxiw

ay collision

Mid-air

collision

Runw

ay collision

WV

CFIT

Fault Tree Model

Influence Model


Taxiw

ay collision

Mid-air

collision

Runw

ay collision

WV

CFIT

Fault Tree Model

Influence Model



26

Human in Loop

Fast Time

Analytical

Macro & System Model

Human In Loop

Fast Time

Analytical


Trade-Off and

Results consolidation

and conclusions

Final Trade-Off and


and conclusions

Cycle 1

Generic Assessment

Cycle 2

Local Specific

Assessment

SESAR

Definition

Phase

Human in Loop

Fast Time

Analytical


Human In Loop

Fast Time

Analytical


Trade-Off and


and conclusions

Final Trade-Off and


and conclusions

Cycle 1

Generic Assessment

Cycle 2

Local Specific

Assessment

SESAR

Definition

Phase

Concept Validation Approach

� Two or three Cycles:

� Cycle 1: Generic Validation;

� Cycle 2: Refinement (Local Specific).

� Potentially a 3rd cycle for final refinement

� EUROCAE / RTCA formalism

SESAR

Definition

phase

Results

consolidation

and Trade-off

Results

consolidation

and Trade-off

Concept Validation

27

Concept

selection

D 3

06/2007

Deployment

2013 2020


development

R &

D

Potential Research Activities

Concept Validation


and Validation

28

Potential Research Activities Technology development

and Validation

The main objective of Technology development

and validation is:

� To identify the impact of the future concept

on the ATM system architecture,

� To assess the technological feasibility of the

required evolution,

� To provide the evidence that the ATM system

can deliver the required performances.

29

System Performance assessment

Technology feasibility

System Architecture studies

•Design of Architecture

evolution

•Design and prototyping of

Network centric backbone:

• Exchange Mechanism

• Middleware,



and Validation

30




• Identification and feasibility

studies (prototyping) of

critical elements:

• A/G trajectory exchanges,

• FMS / TP accuracy,

• CDM mechanisms,

• Controller tools,

• Cockpit evolutions,

• …


RTA

AUTHORIZED

RBTA

Current Pos

EXECUTED

RBTX

PLANNED

RBTP

RTA

AUTHORIZED

RBTA

Current PosCurrent Pos

EXECUTED

RBTX

PLANNED

RBTP

Cop

yrig

ht A

irbus

Cop

yrig

ht A

irbus


and Validation

31



System performance assessment

•System performance

modelling (System Capacity,

Response times,

Reliability…)

•Large scale trials



and Validation

32

Research Enablers

�Concept Validation:

�Modelling tools for performance

assessments: Network models,

F/T simulators

�Experimental Real Time

simulators: ATC, TMA, TWR,

CDM

�Human Factors evaluation tools

�Technology validation:

�Prototypes,

�Architecture modelling

� Huge gaps exist in current

environment,

� Need to:

�Fill the gaps

�Federate European infrastructure

� EATRADA initiative to assess

existing tools, identify gaps,

and recommend solutions

� SESAR definition phase

complements the analysis

33

Conclusion

� SESAR brings a new dimension to European ATM

� The challenge: agree on, and accept to change

� New challenges to European Research

� Success? Maybe not the panacea, but with SESAR we

can take major steps forward efficiently by federating

our forces!

Documents

SESAR Single European Sky ATM Researchthe former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Malta Moldova Monaco the Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Serbia-Montenegro Slovakia Slovenia