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The Adaptation & National Security Webinar Series The Security and Sustainability Forum www.securityandsustainabilityforum.org Our Sponsors_ _______________________________________________________________ Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact on National Security June 21, 2011 A 5 Session Webinar Series Produced by: The Security and Sustainability Forum Washington, D.C.

Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

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Page 1: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

The Adaptation & National Security Webinar Series

The Security and Sustainability Forum

www.securityandsustainabilityforum.org

Our Sponsors________________________________________________________________

Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate

and Its Impact on National Security June 21, 2011

A 5 Session Webinar Series Produced by:

The Security and Sustainability Forum

Washington, D.C.

Page 2: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

• Introduction to the Panel

• Panel Presentations Opening Remarks: Eileen Shea

Planning to Protect: Lynne Carter

Local Responses and Approaches: Missy Stults

Connecting Capital and Climate Risk: Rowan Douglas

• Panel Discussion

• Audience Q&As

• Summary

• Thank you

Agenda

Page 3: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

www.securityandsustainabilityforum.org SSF’s Adaptation Webinar Series Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate

and its Impact on National Security

Moderator Eileen Shea is Chief, Climate Services and Monitoring Division of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (NOAA IDEA) Center. Ms Shea has responsibility for NCDC’s programs in data access; data integration and visualization; user engagement, education and outreach; and international, national and regional climate services partnerships. Ms. Shea is involved in a number of Pacific Island regional endeavors in the field of environmental science and services including leading regional efforts to implement the Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS) and serving as a Member of the Navigators Council (and first Chair) of the Pacific Risk Management ‘Ohana (PRiMO), a collaborative involving a number of Federal Government and state agencies, universities and private sector partners engaged in disaster preparedness activities in the Pacific.

Page 4: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

www.securityandsustainabilityforum.org SSF’s Adaptation Webinar Series Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate

and its Impact on National Security

Panel Member: Dr. Lynne Carter is Associate Director and Program Manager, Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) –a stakeholder-driven program focusing on serving the adaptation and climate information needs of the south-central US (TX, OK, LA, MS, AR, and TN) and Associate Director for the Coastal Sustainability Studio also at LSU

Panel Member: Rowan Douglas Chief Executive Officer, Global Analytics, Willis Re and Chairman, Willis Research Network Willis, Ltd. leads the company’s analytics team and resources to support risk modeling, risk management and reinsurance transactions. In 2008 Rowan was appointed by the UK Science Minister to Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) the public body which oversees public environmental science expenditure.

Panel Member: Missy Stults serves as the Climate Programs Director for ICLEI USA. As part of this role, Missy works with local governments throughout the country to help them identify strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions while also working to building local resilience to climate change and climate variability.

Page 5: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

What does El Niño have to do with the price of eggs?

El Nino / La Nina •Natural oscillation in the Pacific with near-global impacts •Ocean and atmosphere connected

Page 6: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

This report summarizes the

science and impacts of

climate change in the U.S.

Plain language, authoritative

US Global Change Research

Program report, led by NOAA

Extensive review: public (2), blue

ribbon expert (2), U.S. federal climate

agencies review (2)

Draws from all previous assessments,

global and national (IPCC, CCSP etc)

Author team was a 31-member

Federal Advisory Committee body

and included federal, academic and

private sector experts

globalchange.gov/usimpacts

http://www.commerce.gov/cop15

Page 7: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Heavy Downpours More rain is already coming in

very heavy events, and this trend

is projected to increase across

the nation. Such events are

harmful to transportation

infrastructure, agriculture, water

quality, and human health.

.

Coastal Communities Sea-level rise and storm surge

will increase threats to homes

and infrastructure including

water, sewer, transportation,

and communication systems.

Many barrier islands and coastal

marshes that protect the

coastline and support healthy

ecosystems will be lost.

.

.

Agriculture Increasing heat, pests, floods,

weeds, and water stress will

present increasing challenges

for crop and livestock

production.

ecosystems will be lost.

.

.

Water and Energy As warming increases

competition for water, the

energy sector will be

strongly affected as

power plants require

large amounts of water

for cooling.

.

Water Supply Reduced summer runoff, increased winter

runoff, and increasing demands will

compound current stresses on water

supplies and flood management, especially

in the West.

.

.

Heat Waves Heat waves will

become more

frequent and intense,

increasing threats to

human health and

quality of life,

especially in cities.

.

Energy Supply Warming will decrease demand

for heating energy in winter and

increase demand for cooling

energy in summer. The latter will

result in significant increases in

electricity use and peak demand

in most regions.

Key Finding: Widespread climate-related impacts

are occurring now and are expected to increase

7

Page 8: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

The Climate Is Already Changing

Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate

Global Temperature and CO2

Scientific consensus shows that the Earth’s climate is changing due to

increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

•Most of the warming in the past

50 years has been over land

and in the Northern Hemisphere

• Year-round average temperatures

in the U.S. have already risen 2°F

over the past 50 years

Human fingerprints have been identified in many aspects of climate change

• Temperature • Precipitation • Ocean heat content • Atmospheric moisture • Arctic sea ice

Page 9: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Key Finding: Climate Changes are underway

in the U.S. and are projected to grow

Page 10: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Projected Change in Precipitation by 2080-2099

Key Finding: Climate changes are

underway in the U.S. and are projected to

grow

Winter

Summer

Spring

Fall

Observed Drought

Trends 1958-2007

Page 11: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Climate Change Impacts Are Not Distributed Evenly

• Drought frequency has increased in the Southeast and much of the West

• Heavy precipitation has increased most in the Midwest and Northeast

For example…

Midwestern flooding, NRCS Western drought, CA Dept. of Water Resources

Page 12: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Climate change will interact with existing social & environmental stresses

Changes in population, 1970 to 2008

Page 13: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Climate Change Is Already Affecting Society

• Economy

• Communities

• Energy production/supply

• Human health

• Water availability

• Food production

• National security

• Tribal cultures

• Biodiversity

• Ecosystem services that people depend on for clean water,

coastal protection, food protection, food production,

and recreation

In this context, National Security involves:

Lives, Livelihoods and Lifelines

Page 14: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental
Page 15: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Planning to Protect:

How We Might Think About a Changing Climate and Be More Ready

L y n n e M . C a r t e r , P h . D . A s s o c i a t e D i r e c t o r , S o u t h e r n C l i m a t e I m p a c t s P l a n n i n g P r o g r a m , L S U

A s s o c i a t e D i r e c t o r , C o a s t a l S u s t a i n a b i l i t y S t u d i o , L S U

D i r e c t o r , A d a p t a t i o n N e t w o r k

Page 16: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Adaptation

No “top 10” Adaptation Actions

Adaptations are location and issue specific: can have wider

ramifications

Adaptive capacity is uneven: resources ($, info., expertise); political

will/leadership; stringent policies and regulations; cultural acceptability; vulnerable populations; not automatically translate into reduced vulnerability – need to take action

Scale of info must match scale of issue

Rarely only because of climate change: multiple stressors (e.g.

growing populations in harms’ way); hazard management; win-win opportunities (e.g., actions good for more than one reason)

Climate change - a moving target: requires continuous reassessment

– like other planning considerations

Page 17: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Response Context

Climate Change

not the only challenge

to be juggled

Page 18: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Communities/Businesses/All Have:

• Much to lose from climate impacts: slr, storms, water

issues, health impacts, forest fires, etc.

• Limited resources and tight budgets: competition

• Much to gain from opportunities: economic dev., energy

savings, avoided costs

• Relevant authorities and planning structures: Communities: blgd and dev permits, building codes, locating

infrastructure

Businesses: long-term plans, reg. maintenance/upgrade schedules,

location choices (expansion or new facilities)

• Opportunity to learn from and work with others

Page 19: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Thinking About Possible Consequences and

Approaches to Address Them

Many options:

Learn from others:

guidebooks and specific

projects

How will present situations,

problems, hazards change

under a changing climate?

Examine various sectors

under projected changes

• Identify vulnerabilities

• Define tipping points for

actions

Page 20: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Present Problems Likely to Get Worse

• Urban Air Quality: Relationship between temperature and air quality: Higher temps - more challenging to meet air quality standards

• Urban Heat Island Effect: Increased temperatures day and night – more heat held by urban areas

• Sea-level Rise Impacts: Relationship to water temperature and melting glaciers, rate of local subsidence -> salt water intrusion, wetland loss, storm surge, flooding

From: Global Climate Impacts in the US, 2009

Page 21: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Infrastructure

Tourism

Energy

Legal considerations

Page 22: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

• Protect: build hard structures-levees and dikes (increases future risks by destroying wetlands, creates a false sense of security causes more development)

• Accommodate: elevate roads, buildings, and facilities; improve flood control structure design; enhance wetlands (Deer Island, reaching Port Fouchon)

• Retreat: accommodate inland movement through planned retreat; require setbacks based on erosion

rates; no armoring; small structures; clear expectations for development; rolling easements

From: USGCRP, 2009

Adaptation Example: Responding to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge

Courtesy of Jack Pellette, NWS

Page 23: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Adaptation Examples: At Risk from SLR

At Risk:

2,400 mi major roads 246 miles freight lines permanent flooding with 4 ft of relative SLR

This region: 6 of top 10 freight gateways threatened by SLR 7 of 10 largest ports 2/3 US oil imports $100s of billions potentially

Page 24: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Building a Resilient Energy Gulf Coast

From: Entergy and America’s Wetland Study, 2010 – title above

Key areas examined w/in 70 miles of coast Asset values by class

Today: Gulf Coast average losses from extreme storms is annual ~$14 billion 2030: economic losses > by 50-65% - economic growth, subsidence, climate change Next 20 yrs: Gulf Coast cumulative economic damage could be $350 billion -7% total capital investment and 3% annual GDP to reconstructive activities Adaptation actions will reduce long term costs: start with “no-regrets” e.g. rebuild wetlands

Page 25: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Adaptation Examples

Agriculture (Food Security) • Switch to plant species that mature earlier

and are more resistant to heat and drought

• Alter planting dates

• Increase crop and livestock diversity

• Minimize need for external inputs such as irrigation

Fire (due to drier conditions) • Thin trees and bushes near structures

• Select ignition-resistant building materials and

design features

• Position structures away from slopes

• Develop emergency plans and evacuation procedures

From: USGCRP, 2009

Page 26: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Adaptation Planning: Many Timeframes

Source: Linda Mearns, UCAR

Page 27: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

We can anticipate, plan, act … be proactive

or we can remain reactive. Some photos: courtesy Joel Scheraga, EPA

Page 28: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

MISSY STULTS, CLIMATE DIRECTOR,

ICLEI USA

Adaptation in a Changing Climate: Local Responses and Approaches

Page 29: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

• Today’s climate is different than yesterday’s … and tomorrow’s

• We are already vulnerable to weather and climate impacts

• Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s vulnerabilities

• Significant time is required to motivate and develop adaptive capacity, and to implement changes

• Climate change will affect our ability to meet existing priorities

• Climate change is a threat multiplier

What We Know

• Proactive planning is more effective and less costly than reactive planning

• Limited resources for planning and action

• Impacts will be local

Page 30: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Barriers to Action

• Imperfect Information (temporally and spatially)

• Lack of access to data – including streamlined access

• Lack of knowledge about what to do and what impacts will be

• Governance and institutional barriers

• Perceived competition with other priorities

• Lack of resources (staffing, financial)

• Communication and visualization challenges

• Local – to – regional collaboration needs

Page 31: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

How We’re Planning

Using Existing Planning Processes • Hazard mitigation planning and climate adaptation • Adaptation – Mitigation co-planning • Comprehensive / Master planning

Starting with Today’s Vulnerabilities Tailored to Local Context Internal Operations vs. Community-Wide Always with Stakeholder Involvement Regional Collaboration Where Relevant/Applicable

Page 32: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Dealing With Uncertainty / Imperfect Information

“No regrets” strategies Address climate change projections in a manner that

provides benefits now regardless of the future impacts. Focus on existing weather-related problems and flexible actions.

“Low regrets” strategies

Address climate change projections in a manner that creates greater climate resilience at little additional cost or risk

“Win-win” or “Co-benefit” strategies Reduce climate change impacts while providing

other environmental, social, or economic benefits

Example: Chicago’s Heat Island Preparedness

• Win – Win strategy with lots of co-benefits • Is a valuable strategy regardless of the extent of

temperature increase

Page 33: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Lack of Local Data: Adaptation in Lewes, Delaware

Integration of Hazard Mitigation Planning and Climate Adaptation Planning

Looks at planning for future climate as opposed to historic

1. Synthesizing available information on existing risks and hazards in the community;

2. Using regional climate data for future information

3. Stakeholder process – using local knowledge to make decisions that are flexible and responsive to local priorities

Page 34: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Institutionalizing Adaptation: Utilizing Local Planning Tools in Keene, NH

● One of the first communities in the country

to undertake adaptation planning

● Each department asked to evaluate existing

and potential future vulnerabilities

● Group then discussed vulnerabilities to

identify connections

● Adaptation integrated into individual

department plans/strategies AND

● Integrated into Comprehensive Plan

Page 35: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Preparing Regionally for SLR in San Diego Bay

Collaboration of 5 municipalities, Port, and Airport

Focused on preparing for sea level rise

Integration of individual municipality plans/strategies with regional strategy

Steering Committee guides process – supported by Stakeholder Committee

Initiated in Spring 2010 and end

products due in September 2011

Existing Conditions Report

Vulnerability Analysis

Final Sea Level Rise Strategy

Page 36: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental
Page 37: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

THE WILLIS RESEARCH NETWORK

C O N N E C T I N G C A P I T A L A N D C L I M A T E R I S K I N A

M O D E L L E D W O R L D – H O W R E / I N S U R A N C E A N D

P U B L I C S C I E N C E A R E I N T E G R A T I N G T O S U P P O R T

C L I M A T E A D A P T A T I O N , S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y A N D

F I N A N C I A L R E S I L I E N C E A T L O C A L A N D G L O B A L S C A L E S

Page 38: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Grand Challenge for Global Society

How populations share costs of extreme events & natural catastrophes

At local & international scales

Via Public (taxation) or Private (insurance) mechanisms

Re/Insurance is the ultimate community product

Catastrophe risk modelling is moving beyond the relative backwater of insurance analytics into the mainstream of climate change, and adaptation and disaster policy.

This move offers enormous opportunities for our existing community, as well as new entrants. But it also brings fresh challenges.

Page 39: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

From Grand Challenges for Society to tough Questions for Re/Insurers

Insurers’ Questions:

¯ What is their maximum probable loss in a 1 in [250] year return period?

¯ Where is risk located?

¯ What scenarios are of genuine concern?

¯ What if ‘x’ event happens there, how much would it cost?

Why they are asking:

To ensure insurers comply with regulatory requirements and keep their promises to pay after major catastrophes;

Massive scale: the majority of the world’s private property assets are insured & reinsured.

Cost: Society shares the cost of natural catastrophes via taxation, re/insurance, or a hybrid of both public and private funding (e.g. US$50 billion transferred to insurance claimants after Hurricane Katrina, with no major insurer failures).

Requires modelling of hazards (wind, flood, quake, etc), exposures (buildings infrastructure, etc), vulnerabilities & financial impacts.

A function of increased science in re/insurance since 1980s; specifically an emerging discipline of catastrophe modelling involving academic and industry inputs.

In spite of success, considerable uncertainties persist, many of which are driven by climate change.

Page 40: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

After 2008, A Growing focus on the Normality of Extremes

EU European Systemic Risk Board (Central European Bank), Jan 2011

G20 Financial Stability Board

EU Solvency 2 Insurance Regulation

NAIC Climate Risk Disclosure Surveys, Mar 2010

SEC Climate Change Disclosure, Jan 2010

Climate Resilience & National Security UK Climate Change Act 2008; DECC

UK National Security Strategy, Oct 2010

Page 41: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

41

Grand Unification & the rise of the Modelled World

Reinsurance and the management of extremes is now undertaken inside a modelled world.

A development of the last 20 years (e.g. property catastrophe reinsurance), there are immense benefits, with new challenges.

A developing continuum – science, cat modelling, capital modelling, regulatory and credit modelling, public policy planning.

Risk based modelling is creating new, unified rules of the game.

This integration of public science and re/insurance is driving the response to the current generation of modelling challenges. It’s become the common currency of communication and interaction.

Public science is also recognising the unique role of the re/insurance industry to both understand and confront some of our greatest challenges.

The sector is at the forefront of society confronting the normality of extremes.

Page 42: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

From Grand Challenge to Grand Unification

The greatest opportunity may be to integrate the growing focus on ‘sustainability’ with the emerging forces of capital regulation. The epicentre for this is the role and position of re/insurance modelling and techniques in a wider sphere.

Sustainability means avoiding or managing (undesirable) extremes. (E.g. Financial stress and bankruptcy/ poverty and mortality)

New alignments of cross disciplinary, multi national, public and private institutions are coming together to confront these challenges driven by progressive individuals and teams

The Forum can playing a leading role in this exciting intellectual sector by integrating the development of aspects of the sustainability and security agenda and framework

Page 44: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Modelling regional extremes – climate risks

• Historical data is no longer sufficient.

• The industry is entering a new era of extreme climate & weather risk modelling.

• Simulation of planet’s climate system using high resolution Global Climate Models.

• Improved evaluation of current risk levels.

• Global & regional teleconnections – diversification benefits.

Page 45: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Modelling the black swans – with groundbreaking science

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truth?

Alternative (plausible) climate scenarios – including

strong/weak El Nino or La Nina, Atlantic Multidecadal

Oscillation and other drivers of hurricane activity

Page 46: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Modelling the black swans – with groundbreaking science

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truth?

Alternative (plausible) climate scenarios – including

strong/weak El Nino or La Nina, Atlantic Multidecadal

Oscillation and other drivers of hurricane activity

Page 47: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Modelling the black swans – with groundbreaking science

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Historical

storms –

truth?

Alternative (plausible) climate scenarios – including

strong/weak El Nino or La Nina, Atlantic Multidecadal

Oscillation and other drivers of hurricane activity

Page 48: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Tropical cyclone – NCAR led research

North Atlantic Hurricane - a flagship WRN research programme – improving estimation of frequency/severity and geographic correlation / dependency

Combining expertise at NCAR (Dr Greg Holland, Dr James Done), Dr Tom Knutson, Dr Isaac Held (GFDL Princeton), plus UK and international organisations

Key research areas include:

Correlated land falling modelling of US/Caribbean hurricane from nested global/regional climate models

Hurricane formation and track position under climate variability

Hurricane damage indices

Page 49: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

US WRN partners at end 2010

National Center for Atmospheric Research (hurricane and tropical cyclone research)

GFDL - Princeton (hurricane, tropical cyclone and storm surge) Florida State (hurricane, capital structures) Princeton (hurricane, flooding and geostatistics) Oklahoma (convective systems/severe storms) Institute for Business and Home Safety (weather risks, building

vulnerability) Scripps / Merced (wildfire, climate change) Georgia Tech (seismic risk to container ports) Colorado (demand surge, Business Interruption, vulnerability) Wharton (climate change adaptation, heuristics, capital) Temple (actuarial school) Georgia State (financial modelling)

Page 50: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

50

WRN Integrating Re/Insurance, Public Science & Funding Agencies

WRN Extreme Weather & Climate Liaison Group

US/UK Science Institutions with Global Re/Insurers

Developing shared agenda and plans for climate research and services

Operational climate forecasting and risk assessment

From climate, to hazard to risk

Re/insurance as a proxy for wider public & private sector needs

WRN Extreme Weather & Climate Liaison Group

Willis Building, London, July 10th 2009

Page 51: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Making forecasting relevant

• Willis Hurricane Index

• Developed to assess GoM hurricane damage potential

• Will be coupled to NCAR WRF high resolution climate / weather models for the 2010 season – generating damage forecasts

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An Example of how things might come together: Global Earthquake Model

•OECD Global Earthquake Model •Standard models of earthquake risk worldwide: for insurance and public sector •5 year, Euro 30m programme •Willis is one of 4 founding private sponsors, with Munch Re, Zurich and AIR •Singapore is one of eight country sponsors •WRN members and technology supporting GEM •GEM Exposure sets may become base for multi-hazard risk modelling

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Developing climate services for insurers

WCC-3 HIGH-LEVEL DECLARATION, Geneva Sept 2009 DO 1 We, Heads of State and Government, Ministers and Heads of Delegation present at the High-level Segment of the World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, noting the findings of the Expert Segment of the Conference;

OP 1 Decide to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (hereafter referred to as “the Framework”) to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services;

OP 2 Request the Secretary-General of WMO to convene within four months of the adoption of the Declaration an intergovernmental meeting of member states of the WMO to approve the terms of reference and to endorse the composition of a task force of high-level, independent advisors to be appointed by the Secretary-General of the WMO with due consideration to expertise, geographical and gender balance;

OP 3 Decide that the task force will, after wide consultation with governments, partner organizations and relevant stakeholders, prepare a report, including recommendations on proposed elements of the Framework, to the Secretary-General of WMO within 12 months of the task force being set up. The report should contain findings and proposed next steps for developing and implementing a Framework. In the development of their report, the taskforce will take into account the concepts outlined in the annexed Brief Note;

OP 4 Decide further that the report of the task force shall be circulated by the Secretary-General of WMO to Member States of the WMO for consideration at the next WMO Congress in 2011, with a view to the adoption of a Framework and a plan for its implementation; and

OP 5 Invite the Secretary-General of WMO to provide the report to relevant organizations, including the UN Secretary-General.

Page 54: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

PANEL DISCUSSION

Question 1: What if the scientific

projections of climate change aren’t

“right”?

Questions 2: What do you think are the top

3 impediments to adaptation?

Question 3: How can we translate potential

climate risk into financial impacts to aid

decision making in private and public

sector?

Question 4: How can we move the

discussion from addressing impacts to

strengthening the resilience and long-term

sustainability of communities, businesses

and natural resources?

Page 55: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

AUDIENCE Q&A

R E M E M B E R T O R E G I S T E R F O R

S E S S I O N 2 : A D A P T A T I O N S T O P R O T E C T T H E N A T I O N ’ S F O O D A N D C L E A N W A T E R S U P P L Y

A U G U S T 4 , 2 0 1 1 1 : 1 5 – 2 : 4 5 P M E D T

G O T O

W W W . S E C U R I T Y A N D S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y F O R U M . O R G

Adaptation in a Changing Climate and its Impact on National Security

Page 56: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Energy Assurance

Why Should Federal, State, and Local Governments Care? Economic vitality, public health, homeland security, and risk

management all depend on a reliable energy supply.

Resistance to energy supply fluctuations brings stability and confidence to local and global markets.

A quick response to an energy emergency – caused by economic crisis, natural disaster, or man-made disruption – reduces losses and increases speed of recovery.

Cadmus Can Help You: Assess your organization’s resiliency

Develop your comprehensive energy assurance plan

Test your readiness with training exercises

Contact Julio Rovi | [email protected] | (703) 247-6128

Page 57: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

SPONSOR SLIDE

HOLDER

Page 58: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

SPONSOR SLIDE

HOLDER

Page 59: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Summary Points

Point 1: Changing climate will always be addressed in a broad, multi-stress context: Adaptation is just another cost of doing business

Many Adaptation actions can have important benefits independent of climate

Focusing on adapting to climate impacts (e.g., sea-level rise) can change the discussion dynamic.

Page 60: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Point 2: Disaster management actions/issues can be a starting point for adaptation planning Understanding patterns, trends and impacts

Documenting successful strategies

Point 3: Disaster management actions/issues can be a starting point for adaptation planning

Point 4: We can learn from one another but need to adapt to specific place and context

One size doesn’t fit all

Summary Points

Page 61: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Point 5: Proactive planning is more effective than reactive response

Point 6: Adaptation, like the climate system, will evolve over time; need to respond to changing scientific insights and social, cultural, economic and environmental conditions

Point 7: Today’s choices shape tomorrow’s vulnerability – and resilience

Point 8: Translating potential climate risk into financial impacts may be essential to success

Summary Points

Page 62: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

SSF Adaptation & National Security Series

Session 2 : Adaptations to Protect the Nation’s Food and Clean Water Supply; Session 3: Adaptations to Protect the Health of the Nation; Session 4: Adaptations to Protect the Nation’s Physical Infrastructure; and Session 5: Adaptations to Maintain Economic Growth in a Changing Climate.

Check the Schedule and register at: www.securityandsustainabilityforum.org

Thank you to our Steering Committee

• James Buizer, Science Policy Advisor to Arizona State University • Shannon Cunniff, Director, Chemical and Material Risk Management at DoD • David Evans, Director of Noblis’ Center for Sustainability: Earth, Energy & Climate • Alex Beehler, Former Assistant Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Environment, Safety &

Occupational Health) and former Acting Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Installations & Environment) at DoD

• Edwin Pinero, Veolia and former White House CEQ Federal Environmental Executive • Danielle Miller Wagner, Director of Programming, Center for Environmental Innovation and

Leadership (CEIL), and Principal, Local 2 Global Solutions, LLC • Marianne Horinko, Horinko Group and former EPA Acting Administrator • Ed Saltzberg, SSF Managing Director and former corporate officer with SAIC and Battelle

SESSION 2 :Adaptations to Protect the Nation’s Food

and Clean Water Supply

August 4, 2011 1:15 – 2:45 PM EDT

www.securityandsustainabiityforum.org

Page 63: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Thank you to our Sponsors!

Also our Webinar Partners:

SESSION 2 :Adaptations to Protect the Nation’s Food

and Clean Water Supply

August 4, 2011 1:15 – 2:45 PM EDT

www.securityandsustainabiityforum.org

Page 64: Session 1: Adaptation in a Changing Climate and Its Impact ... in a Changing Climate.pdfNOAA National Climatic Data Center and Director of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental

Resources

U.S. Global Change Research Program. 2009 Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States http://www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts

U.S. Global Change Research Program Synthesis and Assessment Products http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/saps

National Academies of Science. 2010 Advancing the Science of Climate Change, America’s Climate Choices http://americasclimatechoices.org/panelscience.shtml Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change http://americasclimatechoices.org/paneladaptation.shtml

NOAA’s Climate Portal http://www.climate.gov

SESSION 2 :Adaptations to Protect the Nation’s Food

and Clean Water Supply

August 4, 2011 1:15 – 2:45 PM EDT

www.securityandsustainabiityforum.org