39
Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA Presenters: Lynn Barr, MPH SOA Antitrust Disclaimer SOA Presentation Disclaimer

Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast

Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA

Presenters:

Lynn Barr, MPH

SOA Antitrust Disclaimer SOA Presentation Disclaimer

Page 2: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

2018 SOA Health MeetingSARAH OSBORNE, HEALTH SECTION CHAIRPERSONHealth Section BreakfastWednesday, June 27th, 2018

Page 3: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

SOCIETY OF ACTUARIESAntitrust Compliance Guidelines

Active participation in the Society of Actuaries is an important aspect of membership. While the positive contributions of professional societies and associations are well-recognized and encouraged, association activities are vulnerable to close antitrust scrutiny. By their very nature, associations bring together industry competitors and other market participants.

The United States antitrust laws aim to protect consumers by preserving the free economy and prohibiting anti-competitive business practices; they promote competition. There are both state and federal antitrust laws, although state antitrust laws closely follow federal law. The Sherman Act, is the primary U.S. antitrust law pertaining to association activities. The Sherman Act prohibits every contract, combination or conspiracy that places an unreasonable restraint on trade. There are, however, some activities that are illegal under all circumstances, such as price fixing, market allocation and collusive bidding.

There is no safe harbor under the antitrust law for professional association activities. Therefore, association meeting participants should refrain from discussing any activity that could potentially be construed as having an anti-competitive effect. Discussions relating to product or service pricing, market allocations, membership restrictions, product standardization or other conditions on trade could arguably be perceived as a restraint on trade and may expose the SOA and its members to antitrust enforcement procedures.

While participating in all SOA in person meetings, webinars, teleconferences or side discussions, you should avoid discussing competitively sensitive information with competitors and follow these guidelines:

• Do not discuss prices for services or products or anything else that might affect prices• Do not discuss what you or other entities plan to do in a particular geographic or product markets or with particular customers.• Do not speak on behalf of the SOA or any of its committees unless specifically authorized to do so.

• Do leave a meeting where any anticompetitive pricing or market allocation discussion occurs.• Do alert SOA staff and/or legal counsel to any concerning discussions• Do consult with legal counsel before raising any matter or making a statement that may involve competitively sensitive information.

Adherence to these guidelines involves not only avoidance of antitrust violations, but avoidance of behavior which might be so construed. These guidelines only provide an overview of prohibited activities. SOA legal counsel reviews meeting agenda and materials as deemed appropriate and any discussion that departs from the formal agenda should be scrutinized carefully. Antitrust compliance is everyone’s responsibility; however, please seek legal counsel if you have any questions or concerns.

2

Page 4: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Presentation Disclaimer

Presentations are intended for educational purposes only and do not replace independent professional judgment. Statements of fact and opinions expressed are those of the participants individually and, unless expressly stated to the contrary, are not the opinion or position of the Society of Actuaries, its cosponsors or its committees. The Society of Actuaries does not endorse or approve, and assumes no responsibility for, the content, accuracy or completeness of the information presented. Attendees should note that the sessions are audio-recorded and may be published in various media, including print, audio and video formats without further notice.

3

Page 5: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Health Section Council

Page 6: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Joe Wurzburger, Health Staff FellowDee Berger, Section Specialist Heather Jameson, PD Administrator

SARAH OSBORNE KAREN SHELTON JACKIE LEECouncil Chair Council Vice-Chair Council Sec/Treas

JOANN BOGOLIN ASHLEE BORCAN GREG FANN JENNY GERSTORFF GEOF HILEMANMARILYN MCGAFFIN RICK PAWELSKI MARGIE ROSENBERG KWAME SMART

HEALTH SECTION COUNCIL – ORGANIZATIONAL CHART 2017-2018As of June 1, 2018

Council Members

STRATEGIC DIRECTION & PROFESSIONAL COMMUNITY

Actuarial CommunityJoe Wurzburger, AAA HPC Liaison

KWAME SMART, Canadian Health LiaisonNancy Hubler, Financial Reporting Section Liaison

Pat Kinney, PDC LiaisonGREG FANN, CCA Liaison

External CommunityRebecca Owen (Research), AcademyHealth Liaison

Sara Teppema, CDC LiaisonAnnette James, Regulatory Outreach Liaison

Professional Community (Council Chair)

Strategic Planning CommitteeGREG FANN, Committee Chair

GEOF HILEMAN, Committee Vice-ChairMARILYN MCGAFFIN

Strategic Initiative LeadersJay Hazelrigs+Kelsey Stevens, Value Based Care

Sara Teppema+Julia Lerche, Actuaries and Public Health

2018-19 HSC Election SlateKAREN SHELTON, Council Vice-Chair

Initiative 17|10SARAH OSBORNE

Brian Pauley

Strategic Direction (Council Vice-Chair)

EDUCATION & RESEARCH

CE Plan CoordinatorJENNY GERSTORFF

2018 Spring MeetingASHLEE BORCAN, ChairGREG FANN, Vice-Chair

RICK PAWELSKI, Vice-Chair

2018 Annual MeetingKAREN SHELTON, Chair

GEOF HILEMAN, Vice-Chair

Other CE Event CoordinatorsKWAME SMART, Boot Camp Chair

ASHLEE BORCAN, Val ActJOANN BOGOLIN, Webcasts

DAVE DILLON, Podcasts

Continuing Education

Joe Wurzburger (Staff Fellow)

Basic Education

Brian Hartman, Committee ChairMARGIE ROSENBERG, Committee Vice-Chair

Research Committee

SOA – Staff Partners

MEMBER COMMUNITY

Subgroup CoordinatorJENNY GERSTORFFSubgroup Vice-CoordinatorASHLEE BORCAN

Subgroup LeadersBehavioral Finance Randy HermanDental Joanne FontanaDisability Income Dan SkwireEmployee Benefits [TBD]Medicare Matt ChambleeMedicaid JENNY GERSTORFFSupplemental Health ASHLEE BORCAN Technology Jason SiegelValue-Based Care Mark Wernicke Indiv/Small Group Jian YuPublic Health Engy SutherlandPharmacy Gregory Warren

Special Interest Subgroups

Volunteer Liaison JOANN BOGOLIN

SOA Volunteer Database

HealthWatch Editor JOANN BOGOLINHW Editorial Board HSC LEADERSHIPHealth e-News Dee Berger Social Media Dave Dillon Section Website Marilyn McGaffin

Communications & Publications (C&P)

Page 7: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Health Section Mission StatementThe purpose of the Health Section within the Society of Actuaries (the “SOA”) is to prepare health actuaries for positions of leadership and promote the relevance of health actuaries in the marketplace by:• Providing relevant educational opportunities and member

communications• Facilitating practical research, and • Continually expanding the marketplace relevance of the

health actuary brand.

6

Page 8: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Health Section Activities

• Webcasts• Podcasts• HealthWatch• Research• Strategic Initiatives• Free Health Affairs subscription

• Meeting Planning and Content• Health Meeting• Annual Meeting• Health Boot Camps• Valuation Actuary Symposium• Influence Training Seminar

• Subgroups• Regulatory Resource Webpage

7

www.soa.org/health

Page 9: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Health Section Strategic InitiativesCommercial Health Care: What’s Next

•Focused on actuarial aspects of commercial health care as the Trump Administration seeks to unwind the ACA •Output: A series of six online articles offered as web-exclusives via The Actuary

Public Health•Task force to educate and advance the role of actuaries in Public Health•Output: A series of ten online articles offered as web-exclusives via The Actuary

The Role of the Actuary in Self Insurance•Focused on actuaries as advisers to and developers of tools used by self-insured employers•Output: a monograph addressing the role of actuary in benefit design, stop loss and regulation for self-insured employers

Value-based Care•Focused on the role of the provider actuary•Output: a monograph addressing the necessary foundation for health care actuaries to support providers in managing their value-based care arrangements and business initiatives

8

Page 10: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Initiative 18|11:What Can We Do About the Cost of Health Care?

• A joint initiative between the SOA’s Health Section and the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF)• Summit held at KFF conference center in D.C. with industry thought leaders across a variety of perspectives

including:- Providers- Hospital systems - Data analytics organizations- Employers- Local ACOs- Federal and State government - Researchers - Voluntary health organizations - Public health professionals

• Action items and next steps from summit now being identified and prioritized• Look out for upcoming Health Watch articles

9

Page 11: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:
Page 12: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

traveling together for better care

Scaling ACOs for Success

June 27, 2108

Lynn Barr, CEO- Caravan Health

Page 13: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

2

Helping Providers Navigate the Challenges of Value-Based Payments

CPC+MACRA

Founded in 2013

38 Accountable Care Organizations

250 Health Systems

>14,000 Clinicians

>1,000,000 Medicare Lives

Results (cms.data.gov)

95%- 97% Quality Scores

>10x National Average of Savings

ACOs Practice Transformation

About Caravan Health

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution

Page 14: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Background

3www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution

Page 15: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Where Does the ACO Program Stand Today?

• About 1/3 of all hospitals and clinicians participate in the program.• Under the Track 1 model CMS pays random earnings by chance.

• MSSP will mature into downside risk to remain sustainable for Medicare.

• Under risk models, providers will pay CMS random losses by chance.

Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar talks tough to hospitals…

“…make no mistake: we will use these tools to drive real change in our system. Simply put, I don’t intend to spend the next several years tinkering with how to build the very best joint-replacement bundle — we want to look at bold measures that will fundamentally reorient how Medicare and Medicaid pay for care ….

….As just one example, we are looking at our efforts regarding Accountable Care Organizations. The program was intended to give providers three years to learn how to accept risk and share savings, but the results have been lackluster.….

….as costs continue to skyrocket, the current system simply cannot last.”

Page 16: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Unpredictable Results are Unsustainable

• Small ACOs experience savings and losses plus or minus 10-20% simply due to statistical variation in health care spend and in HCC coding in performance and benchmark years

• 73% of MSSP ACOs have fewer than 20,000 lives

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution5

Savings and Losses by Size of ACO

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,0002013 2014 2015 2016

Page 17: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Wild Swings in Performance are Common

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution6

Year over Year Changes in ACO Savings and Losses by ACO Size

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016

Page 18: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

7

In Most Cases Savings Are Modest

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution

Caravan ACOs consistently save 1% per year

Caravan ACOsMSSP National Average

$107$126

$222

Year 1 Year 1 Year 2*

n=52,925

On average, ACOs savings and losses fall between -0.2% and 0.5%

2015 Starts

2016 Starts

2016 Starts

Savings Per Beneficiary Per Year

n=221,262($4) ($4)

$25 $3

($29)

$54

$16 $31

($22)

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 1

2013 Starts

2014 Starts

2015 Starts

2016 Starts

Page 19: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Expected Variation of Calculated Savings Ratio by ACO Size

Number of attributed lives

Standard Deviation

of calculated savings ratio

50% Confidence Interval

75% Confidence Interval

90% Confidence Interval

95% Confidence Interval

99% Confidence Interval

5,000 0.0346 +/-2.34% +/-3.98% +/-5.70% +/-6.79% +/-8.92%10,000 0.0242 +/-1.63% +/-2.79% +/-3.98% +/-4.75% +/-6.24%20,000 0.0171 +/-1.15% +/-1.96% +/-2.81% +/-3.34% +/-4.40%30,000 0.0137 +/-0.92% +/-1.58% +/-2.25% +/-2.68% +/-3.53%40,000 0.0123 +/-0.83% +/-1.41% +/-2.02% +/-2.41% +/-3.16%50,000 0.0106 +/-0.71% +/-1.22% +/-1.74% +/-2.07% +/-2.73%60,000 0.0095 +/-0.64% +/-1.10% +/-1.57% +/-1.87% +/-2.46%70,000 0.0090 +/-0.61% +/-1.03% +/-1.48% +/-1.76% +/-2.31%80,000 0.0083 +/-0.56% +/-0.95% +/-1.36% +/-1.62% +/-2.13%90,000 0.0078 +/-0.53% +/-0.90% +/-1.28% +/-1.53% +/-2.01%

100,000 0.0074 +/-0.50% +/-0.85% +/-1.22% +/-1.45% +/-1.91%150,000 0.0059 +/-0.40% +/-0.68% +/-0.98% +/-1.16% +/-1.53%200,000 0.0050 +/-0.34% +/-0.58% +/-0.82% +/-0.98% +/-1.29%250,000 0.0044 +/-0.30% +/-0.51% +/-0.72% +/-0.86% +/-1.13%

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution8

Page 20: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Impact of Random Winnings and Losses on Organizational Culture

Failure is an orphan…. • Losing while you’re trying

hard is deflating.

• Finger-pointing and blame break out

• Dis-engagement creeps in• Is it you or is it bad luck?

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution9

While success has many fathers…• Winning breeds deeper

engagement and re-investment

• New initiatives become easier to sell internally

• But did you really deliver excellence or did you get lucky?

Page 21: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Most ACOs Taking Risk are Rolling the Dice

• 101 ACOs are now taking risk under the MSSP, with 62% having fewer than 20,000 lives

• 89 ACOs will be required by program rules to enter into risk-bearing arrangements in 2019

• Based on analyses, Caravan expects that 10 of the current risk-bearing ACOs will have to write a check to CMS – averaging $7 million

• Organizations writing checks to CMS will exit the program – but many leaving will actually be good performers

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution10

Page 22: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

The Collaborative ACO Model

11www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution

Page 23: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

12

Collaborative ACO Results

Revenue Quality

Shared SavingsMIPS

For 2014 starts, average inpatient revenue is up by 7% and outpatient revenue by 17%. For the 2015 starts, average gross inpatient revenue is up by 4%, and outpatient gross revenue by 15%.

Within one year of ACO participation, Caravan

Health hospitals increased their overall quality score by 15%.

In 2016, Caravan Health ACOs generated savings

greater than 10x the national average.

All Caravan Health ACO partners are projected to score 87% or higher under MIPS and are expected to get an upward adjustment of Part B payments in 2019.

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution

Page 24: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

How Do You Win in the MSSP?

1. Manage your patients better than fee-for-service1. Wellness2. Prevention3. Chronic Care Management4. Behavioral/Mental Health Support

2. Accurately code chronic conditions every year3. Have enough lives to reduce statistical variation.

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution13

Page 25: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution14

The Future of Population Health Depends on Scale

Participants need to form collaborative ACOs with more than 100,000 lives to minimize impact of statistical variance and administrative burden

Greater likelihood of predictable shared savings through:• Lower minimum

savings rates • Better link between

effort and outcome

Be fully prepared for future risk models, payer and employer contracting and provider based health plans, which also need scale

Page 26: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution15

Maintain Independence and Control

Every community of providers operate independently and are paid on their own performance.

Independent providers can fully participate in value-based payments while retaining their autonomy.

All health care decisions are kept local.

Significant changes to participation agreements (if any) will be made by July 1 of each year so participants can elect to leave the ACO and form their own in the unlikely event they don’t agree.

Page 27: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution16

Shared Governance: Shared Accountability, Local Control

Two types of participants: Principal Participants & Participants. A principal participant is the entity that loans the MSO fees to the ACO on behalf of itself and the participants in its community.

If shared savings are earned, the principal participant recovers its fees before shared savings are paid to the participants. If shared savings are not earned, the ACO has no obligation to repay the fees and the loan is forgiven.

Each Principal Participant in the Caravan Collaborative ACO has one vote.

All participants will be required to promote wellness, prevention and chronic care management and consistently document chronic conditions for HCC coding purposes. They will be required to report quality measures and comply with program regulations. If in Track 1, they must also report Advancing Care Information.

Membership. Flow of funds.

Voting. Expectations.

Page 28: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Why Take Risk?

• New MIPs delay will reduce maximum performance adjustment to 2-3% of Part B payments – and only if you have a perfect score.

• ACO participants taking risk will get 5% lump sum payments that are not counted in shared savings – making your specialists happier and more attractive to others in value-based payments.

• CMS is steadily increasing incentives for risk-takers• Higher rewards for MSSP performance• Reduce risk corridor to 0.5% or lower• Direct admissions to SNFs• Telehealth to patients homes as a billable visit• Exempt from MIPS and Meaningful Use• 0.5% higher annual increases in Part B starting in 2026• More to come….

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution17

Page 29: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

18

Risk-Sharing Models for ACOs

https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Medicare-Fee-for-Service-Payment/sharedsavingsprogram/Downloads/New-Accountable-Care-Organization-Model-Opportunity-Fact-Sheet.pdf

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution

One-Sided Risk Model Current Two-Sided Risk Models

Track 1 Track 1+ Track 2 Track 3

82% of ACOs (460/561) 10% of ACOs (55/561) 1% of ACOs (8/561) 7% of ACOs (38/561)

Up to 50% maximum sharing of savings

Up to 50% maximum sharing of savings, 30% sharing of losses

Up to 60% maximum sharing of savings or losses

Up to 75% maximum sharing of savings or losses

No risk of loss 4% maximum downside 5-10% maximum downside 15% maximum downside

Six Year Maximum 2019 and 2020 only, can start in Track 1 in 2019, cannot go back to Track 1

Indefinite, cannot go back to Track 1 or 1+

Indefinite, cannot go back to Track 1 or 1+

No risk of loss4% maximum downside - 8% of

personal Part B revenue for MD only ACO

5-10% maximum downside 15% maximum downside

No risk of loss Physician ACO risks ~ $50-$150/pt, Hospital ACO risks ~$400/pt ACO risks ~$500-$1000/pt ACO risks ~$1500/pt

Page 30: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

www.CaravanHealth.com | Proprietary & Confidential, Not for Distribution

In Summary

Statistical Variation can Hurt your ACOThe effects of statistical variation on small ACOs create unreliable and spurious results that can wrongly penalize or reward most ACOs.

Now is the Time to Take ActionThis is the last year to take advantage of the lowest risk option. Validate your ACO performance in a Track 1 to prepare for downside risk.

Operate Independently in a Collaborative ACOGet paid for you work and gain the benefits of risk without having to write a check.

Maximize Value-based Reimbursement> 100,000 life ACO increases likelihood of predictable shared savings, through lower minimum savings rates.

Page 31: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Health Section Council2018 CANDIDATE SLATE

Page 32: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Deana Bell, FSA, MAAAConsulting Actuary

Milliman, Inc.Seattle, WA

SOA Experience (Section and committee memberships and participation)I am a member of the health section, and participate on the health financial reporting subgroup conference calls. I have also recorded an SOA Health Podcast “Medicare Advantage Risk Scores: Transition to encounter data,” and presented at the SOA Health meeting about best practices for Actuarial Memorandums for health companies. I have supported actuaries on my staff with exams and their education. Examples include proctoring VEE exams, supervising DMAC submissions, leading study groups, and mentoring.

Why are you interested in leading the Health Section?I am enthusiastic about giving back to my actuarial community. Being on the health council would be a rewarding way to funnel my energy and skills to move the actuarial profession forward. I want to enhance our education and outreach, keep our content on the cutting edge of health and risk areas, promote diversity and inclusion and bring my own perspective to the conversation, support others and make meaningful connections, and learn something new in the process.

2

Page 33: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Kelsey Stevens, FSA, MAAASenior Consulting ActuaryWakely Consulting Group

Tampa, FL

SOA Experience (Section and committee memberships and participation)Currently, I co-lead the Value Based Care Strategic Initiative within the Health Section of the Society of Actuaries. I have contributed to the Health Watch publication, presented at several SOA meetings and webcasts, conducted peer review of SOA sponsored research papers, and written questions for and graded FSA-level exams.

Why are you interested in leading the Health Section?I am running for a seat on the Health Section Council because I want to contribute to the direction of section activities. My favorite part about the healthcare industry is its dynamic nature; healthcare costs are rising, technology is exploding, regulations are changing, and the financing and delivery of healthcare is reforming. I serve health plans, health systems and government clients alike, and I am excited to collaborate with others to influence the future direction of healthcare actuaries.

Page 34: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Joan C. Barrett, FSA, MAAAConsulting Actuary

Axene Health PartnersTolland, CT

SOA Experience (Section and committee memberships and participation)• I am comfortable working in a volunteer environment on both a strategic and operational basis thanks to my extensive experience with the SOA,

including:• Team member, Initiative 18/11: What can we do about the cost of healthcare? • Vice-President, 2015 to 2017

• Chair, Value of the Credential Task Force• Member, Issues Advisory Committee• Member, Policy and Governance Committee• Member, Cultivating Opportunities Team

• Elected Board Member, 2011 to 2014• Chair, International Committee• Chair, Audit Committee• Member, Business Analytics Team

• Section Experience• Chair, Education and Research Section Council• Board Partner, Health Section Council• Board Partner, Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section Council• Chair, Evolution of the Health Actuary Task Force, chartered by the Health Section Council• Member, Health Section Council

• Basic Education Experience• General Officer, General Insurance Curriculum• General Officer, Group and Health

• Continuing Professional Development Experience• Chair, Health Meeting• Board Partner, Continuing Professional Development Committee• Frequent speaker and author

• Research• Chair, Project Oversight Group, “Enterprise Risk Management Practice as Applied to Health Insurers, Self-Insured Plans and Health Financial

Professionals”• Chair, Project Oversight Group, “Risk and Mitigation for Health Insurance Companies”• Chair, Project Oversight Group, “Measurement of Healthcare Quality and Efficiency: Resources for Healthcare Professionals”

Why are you interested in leading the Health Section?In today’s rapidly changing healthcare environment, it is more important than ever that healthcare actuaries have the tools to do their day-to-day jobs and that the voice of the actuary is heard outside the profession. I am interested in running for Health Section Council to continue my work on these efforts. Specifically, I am committed to incorporating predictive analytics into the day-to-day work of actuaries and in continuing my work on Initiative 18/11, which will be instrumental in breaking down siloes between the actuarial profession and other professions, like health economists. My prior SOA volunteer experience and my professional experience will serve me well in these efforts.

Page 35: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Kamran Malik, ASA, MAAAConsulting ActuaryWakely Actuarial

Harbor, FL

SOA Experience (Section and committee memberships and participation)

Served on SOA Marketing and Distribution Council for the past 4 Years. Currently serving on planning committee for the Supplemental Health, DI & LTC Conference.

Why are you interested in leading the Health Section?

I would like to contribute to the health section, whether responsibilities include helping plan the health meetings, webcasts, publications or research projects. I have been a health actuary for two decades now, and I have seen the section’s educational opportunities grow tremendously over this period. I would like to be an integral part of our section’s growth in the future.

Page 36: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Wendy Kwan, FSA, MAAAActuaryTriNet

New York, NY

SOA Experience (Section and committee memberships and participation)Wendy participates in various SOA activities:Vice Chair of the International Section (2017-present)

Led initiative and hosted several successful networking events

Volunteer for updating Health Economics Module (2018-present)Group Health Core Exam Grader (2016-2017)

Why are you interested in leading the Health Section?I would love to lead the Health Section for the following reasons:Engage health actuaries by targeting what would bring membership valueIncrease awareness to the current value proposition of the Health SectionHelp connect health actuaries from everywhere to forge more friendships and facilitate information exchange!

Page 37: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Joseph P. Slater, FSA, MAAAPartner and Consulting Actuary

Axene Health PartnersCharlotte, NC

SOA Experience (Section and committee memberships and participation)Member, SOA Health Section Self-Insurance Task Force (2017- )Member, SOA Group and Health Advanced Exam Committee (2016)Member, SOA Group and Health Design and Pricing Exam Committee (2011)Member, SOA Health Section (2008- )Member, SOA Small Smaller Insurance Company (2016- )Why are you interested in leading the Health Section?The Health Section has done excellent work to develop timely and useful professional development material for practicing health actuaries in the form of meetings, webcasts, seminars, white papers, research, podcasts, and the Health Watch newsletter. I want to build on the successes of prior health section councils, and help develop additional interesting and useful material. One idea I have is to work with the Health Section and the SOA to develop a series of hands-on online and/or boot camp style seminars that use the case study format. Topics for these seminars could include technical actuarial subjects, practical uses of the latest programming tools such as Python and R, and regulatory updates in a “what you need to know and do now” format. My hope is that the health section council would use their contacts in the industry to help determine the demand for different types of seminars to tailor the offerings to the profession’s needs.

Page 38: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters:

Casey Hammer, FSA, MAAAConsulting Actuary

MillimanSan Francisco, CA

SOA Experience (Section and committee memberships and participation)Casey is a member of the Health Section and presented “Non-Actuarial ACA Provisions: How They Affect Actuaries” at the 2016 SOA Health Meeting. She has also moderated a session at the Health Meeting, proctored exams, and served as a representative for the “Ask an Actuary” networking event. Why are you interested in leading the Health Section?I take great pride in being a health actuary. It only feels natural to me to want to give back to the organization to which I belong. Since receiving my FSA three years ago, I’ve volunteered mostly through assisting aspiring actuaries and health research, and I have the capacity to do more. Given my breadth of experience across several areas within the health care industry, my skillset is well-suited for a broader leadership role such as the one the Health Section Council offers. I enjoy the content that the section produces and would appreciate the opportunity to be involved with its development, organization, and communication.

Page 39: Session 108: Health Section Breakfast - MEMBER | SOA · 2018. 5. 23. · Session 108B, Health Section Breakfast . Moderator/Presenter: Sarah C. Osborne, FSA, MAAA FCA . Presenters: