Session A2: 10:20am WELCOME TO EDMONTON: THE IMPACT OF

POPULATION GROWTH ON THE HOUSING MARKET

Session A2: 10:20am WELCOME TO EDMONTON: THE IMPACT OF

POPULATION GROWTH ON THE HOUSING MARKET

•  Moderator:    Brad  Gingerich,  Senior  Vice  President,  CBRE  Limited  •  Panel:  •  Bill  Blais,  Vice  President  Land  Development,  Maclab  Enterprises  •  Chris?na  Butchart,  Senior  Market  Analyst,  CMHC  •  Rohit  Gupta,  President,  Rohit  Communi?es  •  Michael  Smith,  Senior  Vice  President,  Mul?  Family,  WAM  Development  Group  

Housing market intelligence you can count on!!

2014 Edmonton Real Estate Forum !

May 8, 2014 Edmonton Economic and Housing Market Outlook Christina Butchart, Senior Market Analyst

•  Economic  Outlook    New  Single-‐family  Market    New  Mul8-‐family  Market    Rental  Market  

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Economic & Housing Outlook - Agenda

Edmonton CMA Net Migration���Net migration boosts housing demand

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014f

2015f

•  net  migra?on  

•  Source:    Sta?s?cs  Canada,  July  to  June,  CMHC  Forecast  (f)  

Edmonton CMA Population Growth"

Net migration fuelling higher population growth!

0.0"

1.0"

2.0"

3.0"

4.0"

1988" 1991" 1994" 1997" 2000" 2003" 2006" 2009" 2012"

Source: Statistics Canada!

year-over-year per cent growth"

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION!

Edmonton CMA Employment Growth"Employment to increase in 2014 and 2015!

-2%"

-1%"

0%"

1%"

2%"

3%"

4%"

5%"

6%"

7%"

2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014f" 2015f"

employment growth year-over-year"

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)"

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Edmonton’s New Single-Detached Market

Edmonton CMA Single-detached Starts New construction

trending upward in Edmonton!

0"

1,000"

2,000"

3,000"

4,000"

5,000"

6,000"

7,000"

8,000"

9,000"

10,000"

2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"

SAAR" Trend"

units"

Source: CMHC, SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate)"

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION!

Edmonton CMA Single-detached Supply"Supply gradually trending higher!

0"

1,000"

2,000"

3,000"

4,000"

5,000"

6,000"

7,000"

8,000"

2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"

Inventory" Under Construction"

complete and unabsorbed plus units under construction"

Source: CMHC"

Edmonton CMA Single-detached Starts"Continued growth in single-detached construction in 2014

0"

1,000"

2,000"

3,000"

4,000"

5,000"

6,000"

7,000"

8,000"

9,000"

10,000"

2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014f" 2015f"

units"

Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)"

Edmonton CMA Single-detached Price"Absorbed prices starting to move higher!

$0"

$100,000"

$200,000"

$300,000"

$400,000"

$500,000"

$600,000"

2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"

Average" Median"

absorbed price (6-month moving average)"

Source: CMHC"

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Edmonton’s New Multi-family Market

Edmonton CMA Multi-family Market Share���Multi-family starts accounting for a larger share of the market

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

2013

Semi

Row

Apartment

•  Mul?-‐family  starts  as  a  percentage  of  total  starts  

•  Source:    CMHC  

Edmonton CMA Multi-family Starts��� Multi-family construction trending lower

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

SAAR

Trend

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

units

Source: CMHC, SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate)

Edmonton CMA Multi-family Inventory���Lower apartment inventories spurred construction in 2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Semi

Row

Apt

•  units  

•  Source:    CMHC  

Edmonton Multi-family Under Construction���Increase in units underway to put upward pressure on

inventories

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Semi-detached

Row

Apartment

•  units  

•  Source:    CMHC  

Edmonton CMA Multi-family Starts���After strong performance in 2013, expected to moderate in 2014

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014f

2015f

•  units  

•  Source:    CMHC,  CMHC  Forecast  (f)  

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Edmonton’s Rental Market

Edmonton CMA Apartment Vacancy Rate���Vacancy rate continued to decline in 2013

0

1

2

3

4

5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014f

2015f

per cent

Source: CMHC, October Surveys, CMHC Forecast (f)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Edmonton CMA Rental Apartment Starts���Low vacancy rate has led to rental apartment construction

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

units

Source: CMHC

Edmonton CMA Average Apartment Rent���Rents will continue to rise

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014f

2015f

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

average two-bedroom rent

Source: CMHC, October Surveys, CMHC Forecast (f)

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION!

2012! 2013! 2014f! 2015f!

Economy!

Employment Growth (%)! 3.3! 3.6! 2.2! 2.0!

Net Migration! 24,928! 38,511! 20,000! 18,000!

Resale Market*!

Total Sales! 17,641! 19,552! 19,800! 20,100!

Average Price! $334,319! $344,977! $353,000! $360,000!

New Home Market!

Single-detached Starts! 5,658! 5,970! 6,200! 6,300!

Multi-family Starts! 7,179! 8,719! 7,000! 6,400!

Rental Market (October Survey)!

Apartment Vacancy Rate! 1.7%! 1.4%! 1.6%! 1.7%!

Average Two-bedroom Rent! $1,071! $1,141! $1,175! $1,200!

Edmonton CMA Forecast Summary"

!* Total Residential!!!Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)!!The forecasts included in this table reflect information available as of January 22, 2014!

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Christina Butchart

Senior Market Analyst, CMHC

cbutchar@cmhc.ca

(780) 423-8729

Contact Information

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Thank You!!