Severe Space WeatherPolicy Context: national and international

SEREN Workshop5 - 6 March 2014

Kirsty RouillardSpace Weather Policy & Project Manager, CCS

Overview

Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Severe Space Weather

1. Why should we be concerned about space weather – where did the risk come from?

2. How is the UK government managing this risk?

3. Who are we working with?

4. What planning considerations are there?

5. What opportunities are there?

The Civil Contingencies Secretariat

Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Severe Space Weather

Improve the UK’s resilience to absorb, respond to, and recover from potential disruptive challenges of all types.

•Short-term horizon scanning and medium term risk assessment

•building capability

•ensuring consistency

•critical infrastructure

•supporting community and corporate resilience

•planning for the big stuff

•.......and dealing with it when it goes wrong

• UK NRA discussions started May 2010

• Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) formed November 2010

• Emphasis on (peer reviewed) scientific evidence

• Reasonable Worst Case Scenario

• NRA in 2011

• NRR in Jan 2012

• RAE Report Feb 2013

The origins of severe space weather

   

 

 

Significant (4)

Rel

ativ

e Im

pact

Moderate (3)

Minor (2)

Limited (1)

Catastrophic(5)

Low(1)

Medium Low(2)

Medium(3)

Medium High(4)

Relative Likelihood

High(5)

Significant likely risks: For these risks specific planning is usually merited. For new risks in this area of the grid more detailed advice will be provided on the impacts, existing preparedness and gaps to inform the planning approach for these risks

Significant less likely risks:

The proportionate approach for these risks is usually to rely on

existing planning. For new risks in this area more detailed advice will be provided to inform decisions on how to approach these

risks.

Lower impact risks

The more common risks that are quite plausible but with more

moderate impacts – these can be prepared for in a generic way by

building capabilities to deal with a wide range of typical consequences

Other high likelihood risks with unique consequences:

These may have consequences not

captured by generic planning. For these

risks specific planning for these unique aspects may be

merited.

The National Risk Assessment

Where does severe space weather fit?

The 1859 Carrington Event

The perfect storm – largest CMEs, solar energetic particle events and solar flares

• Storm lasting approx. 3 days but some effects weeks or months• Widespread effects (GPS, aviation, loss of GPS, telecoms,

satellites) likely to be felt globally• Severity of impact will vary with location• Impacts that are not known or fully understood

Other less severe storms

• 1921 – Geomagnetic storm • 1958 – Radio blackout• 1989 – Quebec blackout • 2003 – ‘The Halloween event’

Reasonable Worst Case Scenario

Impacts

Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Severe Space Weather LRFs Presentation

(Credit: K. Turnbull / J. Wild / ESA)

UK Government’s approach

• Worked with experts to define & agree scenarios for space weather – focused on Carrington Event in 1859

• Assessed and scored impacts of new risk in NRA/NRR – 1859 Carrington event : solar flares, radiation storm, CME

• Table top chaired by Government Chief Scientific Adviser, December 2012

• Research undertaken by Royal Academy of Engineering (RAE)

• Set up project to improve awareness and preparedness

• Identified primary areas of impact: aviation, power networks, satellites and communications

• Planning for transformer damage/voltage instability - National Grid

• Identifying GNSS reliant technology and planning mitigation

• Planning for airspace restrictions, understanding health implications – CAA, ICAO

• International collaboration

• Local engagement

• Develop new or additional capability – Gap Analyses

• On going engagement with departments to progress work to fill capability

• Developing 24/7 UK forecasting – Met Office

• Preparedness Strategy

• Keep risk and underpinning science under review - SEIEG

• Workshop to ensure planning is fit for purpose

• UK/US workshops to progress joint learning/ preparedness

Defining and assessing the risks

Planning for the risks Building capabilities

International Context

• UK relationships – US, Sweden, Canada, EU, NATO, France?

• Different stages for different countries – Risk Assessment/Action

• Different priorities depending on infrastructure and vulnerability

• Political difficulties for different countries – EIS = US

• International companies crossing national boundaries (EDF, Shell etc.)o How do Governments work with companies that have a global reach? o Can capability required be built by individual organisations or does it

need intervention at national or international level?

• ICAO – aviation mitigation (too slow)o Impacts likely to be felt internationally. How closely aligned do

international responses need to be?

• There remain significant uncertainties. Science still evolving and hard to evaluate interdependencies between impacts.

• Time from notification of an event to impacts being experienced is short.

• Are we assured that industry is taking the appropriate mitigation actions?

• What information and warning can we give local responders? Are they aware of the risk?

• How do we raise awareness of the risk with industry and the public?o Who can help with public outreach? When and how do we warn the

public? How do we do this without crying wolf?

Policy challenges

Questions?

Kirsty Rouillard Severe Space Weather Policy & Project Manager, CCSkirsty.rouillard@cabinet-office.x.gsi.gov.uk020 7276 2361