Upload
vudien
View
225
Download
8
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Shaping a Bold & Abundant FutureShaping a Bold & Abundant Future
Penn State University –April 2014Live Tweeting? I’m @PeterDiamandis
Peter H. Diamandis, MD
Human development over 150,000+ years…Human development over 150,000+ years…
LOCAL + LINEARLOCAL + LINEAR
EXPONENTIAL + GLOBALEXPONENTIAL + GLOBAL
Human development over 150,000+ years…Human development over 150,000+ years…
Disruptive Stress/Opportunity
EXPONENTIALEXPONENTIALLINEARLINEAR
1996
MarketCap: $28B
Employees: 140,000
2012
Bankrupt
Employees: 17,000
April 2012
MarketCap: $1B
Employees: 13
“The New Kodak Moment”“The New Kodak Moment”
In 10 years, it’s predicted that
40% of the Future 500 Companies
will no longer exist.
In 10 years, it’s predicted that
40% of the Future 500 Companies
will no longer exist.
* Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company April 2011, page 121.
“The average lifespan of a company
listed in the S&P 500 has decreased from
67 years in the 1920’s to 15 years today.”
- Richard Foster, Yale University
“The average lifespan of a company
listed in the S&P 500 has decreased from
67 years in the 1920’s to 15 years today.”
- Richard Foster, Yale University
Singularity UniversityNASA – AUTODESK – GENENTECH – GOOGLE – CISCO– NOKIA
www.SingularityU.orgMountain View, California
GSP10^9+
EPExecutiveProgram
IPPFortune-200
C-SuiteExecutives
Crowd/Community Tools1. Incentive Competitions
2. (Big) Data Mining
3. Crowdsourcing
4. Crowd Funding
5. DIY Communities
6. Crowd Creativity
Exponential Technology1. Computation/Networks
2. Artificial Intelligence
3. Robotics
4. 3D Printing
5. Synthetic Biology
6. Digital Medicine
EXPONENTIALEXPONENTIALLINEARLINEARSU Curriculum
What does EXPONENTIALgrowth feel like?
Take 30
paces…
Take 30
paces…LINEARLINEAR
0102
0304
0506
0708
0910
1112
13
30 meters
01 02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256
… 1,073,741,824 meters
26Xaround the Earth!
Take 30
steps…
Take 30
steps…EXPONENTIALEXPONENTIAL
Sensor Explosion
1976 – 1st Digital Camera (Kodak)0.01 MP / 3.75 lbs / $10,000
2014– Mobile Digital Camera>10 MP / 0.03 lbs / $10
1000x Resolution1000x Lighter1000x cheaper
1,000,000,000 x better
1,000x Resolution & 1,000 lighter & 1,000 cheaper
Steven Sasson
Sensor Explosion
Early ICBM NavigationInertial Measurement Unit1960’s – $ Millions – 50 lbsVelocity/Orientation/Accel.
Accelerometer: $1
Gyroscope: $3
Molecular MachinesFree & embedded
Sensor Explosion
1st commercial GPS Receiver in 1981Weight: 53 lbs; Cost: $119,900
Single Chip GPS Receiver 2010; <$5 each
Cal
cula
tions
/Sec
per
$10
00 c
ompu
ter
Moore’s Law – 5th Paradigm of Exponential Growth
The exponential growth of computing on a Logarithmic PlotCalc./second for a $1000 laptop vs. Time
Cal
cula
tions
per
Sec
ond
per $
1000
Year
1
20232050
2010
Faster,Cheaper,ComputingPower
Ubiquitous Networks
Ubiquitous Sensors
Artificial Intelligence
Robotics
3D Printing
Synthetic Biology
Materials Sciences
“WATSON vanquishes human opponents”
Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence
Infinite Computing•2,880 POWER7 processor cores;•16 Terabytes of RAM•200 million pages of content (Wikipedia)•Process 1 million books per second
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Robotics- Boston Dynamics / Google
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car
Paradigm Change: Robotics
Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car
Paradigm Change: Robotics
LIDAR64 lasers10 RPM
1.3 mil datapoints or 750 Mbytes/second
Light Detection And Ranging)
LIDAR: Light Detection & Ranging
Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car
Paradigm Change: Robotics/Sensors
Perfect Knowledge, Anything – AnytimeLight Detection And Ranging)
LEO Constellations ~ .5m global resolution5 Known ConstellationsIncluding Skybox
Quad Copter~ 1 cm global resolutionPlummeting costsSolar Powered
Google Glass~ 1 mm global resolution
3D Printing
3D Printing – A $10 Trillion Industry
2010 (1st synthetic life) Fuels, Foods & vaccines
Genome Sequencing & Synthetic Biology
2001 (Sequenced First Human)
Critical Insights…1. The rate of innovation is exploding.2. Innovation is coming from everywhere.3. If you don’t disrupt yourself, then someone else will.4. Competition is no-longer the multinational overseas…5. If you’re dependent upon innovation from (only) inside
your company, you’ll be dead.
….So where do you source your innovation?
Crowdsourcing Genius
• $10 Million purse
• Privately funded teams
• 3 person crew
• 100 km altitude
• Two flights within 2 weeks
ANSARI X PRIZEHamid & Anousheh Ansari, Benefactor
ARCA Space Transport
Pablo DeLeonStarChaser Scaled Composites
DaVinci Project Canadian Arrow Rocketplane
Armadillo Aerospace
WINNING THE ANSARI X PRIZE
• 26 Teams• From 7 Nations• Spending > $100 million
October 4th, 2004Mojave Desert
Image from Video
OPENING A NEW ERA…
> 10 Billion Media Impressions Worth in Excess of $120 Million
VIDEO: Ansari X PRIZE (historical)
History Was Made
Board of Trustees & BenefactorsBoard of Trustees & Benefactors
LARRY PAGE,CEO, Google
ELON MUSKCEO, Tesla & SpaceX
RAY KURZWEILInventor & Futurist
Dr. ANOUSHEH ANSARIAstronaut & CEO
DR. CRAIG VENTER,Genetic Pioneer
RATAN TATAChairman of Tata Group
JIM GIANOPULOSChairman/CEO, FOX
JAMES CAMERONFilmmaker and explorer
Jim GianopulosJim Gianopulos
Jim CameronJim Cameron
WENDY SCHMIDTSchmidt Family Fndtn
Wendy SchmidtWendy Schmidt
DEAN KAMEN, CEO, DEKA Research
Prize Groups
Energy & Environment
Life Sciences ExplorationSponsored
Learning & Global
Development
$30 million$30 millionPlus, $30 million inNASA contractsPlus, $30 million inNASA contracts
~20 Teams fromaround the world~20 Teams fromaround the world
Does it have to be a $10M purse?
$1.4 million
Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min
$1.4 million
• 350 pre-registered teams
• 10 Finalists – head to head
7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement
Top Team = 6x Improvement
$1.4 million
• 350 pre-registered teams• 10 Finalists – head to head• Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min
7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement
Top Team = 6x Improvement
$10MHEALTHCARE IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND…FUNDED BY THE QUALCOMM FOUNDATION
Qualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE Team DistributionQualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE Team Distribution
>330 TOTAL TEAMS 33 NATIONS AS OF 2012
16 from Canada16 from Canada
115 from USA115 from USA
1 from Brazil1 from Brazil
1 from Argentina1 from Argentina
2 from Sweden2 from Sweden25 from UK25 from UK
3 from Ireland3 from Ireland
5 from Germany5 from Germany
1 from Switzerland1 from Switzerland
1 from Portugal1 from Portugal
2 from Denmark2 from Denmark2 from Russia2 from Russia
1 from Czech Rep.1 from Czech Rep.
1 from Austria1 from Austria
2 from Bulgaria2 from Bulgaria
2 from Italy2 from Italy
1 from Turkey1 from Turkey
2 from Georgia2 from Georgia
20 from India20 from India
1 from Yemen1 from Yemen
1 from Saudi Arabia1 from Saudi Arabia
1 from Kuwait1 from Kuwait
2 from China2 from China
4 from Singapore4 from Singapore
2 from Australia2 from Australia
Where is X PRIZE going next ?
Where is X PRIZE going next ?
Insights… Incentive Prizes• Any grand challenge can be attacked with an
Incentive Prize (XPRIZE).
• Pay only the winner; & drive a new industry.
• Teams spend 10 – 50x the prize purse.
• Tap into the world’s smartest innovators.
If you’d like a copy of my PPT slides...
Text your First Name & Emailto: (310) 299-8772
We are heading towards a world of Abundance…We are heading towards a world of Abundance…
Really?Really?
ABUNDANCE:The Future Is Better Than You ThinkABUNDANCE:The Future Is Better Than You Think#1 on Amazon; #2 on New York Times
AMYGDALAAMYGDALA ALL VISUAL INFORMATIONALL VISUAL INFORMATION
ALL AUDIO INFORMATIONALL AUDIO INFORMATION
The End of Poverty (June 2013)The End of Poverty (June 2013)
The Decline of ViolenceThe Decline of Violence
“In primitive societies 15% of people died violently; now 0.03% do…
“Violence is 1/500th of what it used to be.”
“In primitive societies 15% of people died violently; now 0.03% do…
“Violence is 1/500th of what it used to be.”
‐ Prof. Steven Pinker, Harvard
NAPOLEON III THE KING OF SIAMAGAGSILVER
AuAuGOLD
ALALALUMINUM
“Technology can
take that which was
scarce, and makes it
Abundant..”
“Technology can
take that which was
scarce, and makes it
Abundant..”
ABUNDANCE: ENERGY
Solar – Exponential ChangeSolar – Exponential Change
Source: GTM Research
SOLAR PANELS AVG. PRICE PER WATT
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
1980 1990 2000 2010
1975‐201297.2%
2012: 84¢
ANNUAL PV PRODUCTION MWATTS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1995 2000 20102005
Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported that the price of solar panels fell by almost 50 percent in 2011.They are now just one‐quarter of what they were in 2008.
ABUNDANCE: WATER
ABUNDANCE: COMMUNICATIONS
ABUNDANCE: HEALTH & EDUCATION
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
FORCE: Rising BillionFORCE: Rising Billion
2000 2010 2020
GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS)
6%
23%
66%
Global Population
Internet Users
3 BILLIONNEW MINDS
What will 3 Billion New Minds…What will 3 Billion New Minds…
createcreate
consumeconsume
discoverdiscover
desiredesire inventinvent…Tens of trillions of annual PP
…Greatest period of Innovation (ever)
If you’d like a copy of my PPT slides...
Text your First Name & Emailto: (310) 299-8772
www.singularityU.org – Singularity University
www.xprize.org – XPRIZE Foundation
Follow me: @PeterDiamandis
For a copy of these slides:Text your First Name & Email
to: (310) 299-8772