Shaping the Future of Education in Gloucestershire...to 150 places (2.4%) by 2022 Critical areas: Cirencester (Chesterton), Fairford, Moreton-in-Marsh and Bourton-on-the-Water, all

Shaping the Future of Education in Gloucestershire …

Changing Demographics and the Impact on Gloucestershire Schools

Moira Pratt Senior Manager (School Place Planning)

Gloucestershire County Council

National patterns of pupil numbers in

mainstream state-funded schools since 1970

‘The nursery & primary school population has been rising since 2009 and reached 4.50 million in 2016.’ ‘The secondary school population rose to 2.76 million in 2016 (the first rise since 2005) as the increased births from 2002 reached secondary school age. ‘

Why?

‘Changes in the school age population are largely driven by the birth rate. ‘ ’The overall effect of these changes on the projected population is that the number of children (up to and including age 15) attending all state-funded schools has been rising since 2010, and is projected to continue on an upward trend to 2025. ‘

DfE National pupil projections Statistical First Release 25/2016, 14 July 2016

The most recent Office for National Statistics (ONS) birth trend data shows a mixed pattern of growth across Gloucestershire.

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County

2001 1,108 723 729 1,319 1,098 805 5,782

2002 1,112 718 750 1,384 1,037 796 5,797

2003 1,163 748 812 1,456 1,120 789 6,088

2004 1,171 758 787 1,438 1,057 806 6,017

2005 1,126 739 773 1,441 1,068 799 5,946

2006 1,231 719 793 1,476 1,151 841 6,211

2007 1,358 761 805 1,700 1,098 840 6,562

2008 1,361 760 817 1,746 1,137 909 6,730

2009 1,372 725 782 1,669 1,135 846 6,529

2010 1,385 727 843 1,789 1,202 929 6,875

2011 1,413 697 783 1,810 1,101 916 6,720

2012 1,365 725 803 1,903 1,138 946 6,880

2013 1,351 712 734 1,760 1,080 917 6,554

2014 1,407 723 759 1,709 1,032 988 6,618

2015 1,247 732 786 1,796 1,166 970 6,697

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS)

County - Medium term trends in pupil numbers

England - Medium term trends in pupil numbers

County - Long term trends in pupil numbers

Population growth of 5 to 10 year olds, by District

2011 - 2015

Office for National Statistics

PRIMARY PUPILS - District level changes

Change in totals from 2016 to 2020

Forest of Dean

• Growth from 6129 to 6232

• Surplus reduced from 910 to 830 places (11.8%) by 2022

Critical areas:

Severnbanks – related to housing.

Minor issues at a small number of schools.

Tewkesbury


• Surplus increased from 247 to 272 places (6.2%) by 2022.

Critical areas:

Bishops Cleeve and Walton Cardiff– related to housing.

Cotswold



Critical areas:

Cirencester (Chesterton), Fairford, Moreton-in-Marsh and Bourton-on-the-Water, all related to housing.

Stroud

• Decline from 7862 to 7713

• Surplus increased from 912 to 1096 places (12.4%) by 2022.

Critical areas:

Cam/Slimbridge area, related to housing.



Gloucester



Critical areas: Quedgeley, Abbeymead/Coopers Edge, and Linden Planning Areas.

Cheltenham


• Surplus reduced from 752 to 30 places (0.3%) by 2022.

Critical areas: Swindon Road and Hatherley/Leckhampton Planning Areas.

The pressure in the critical areas above are linked to both basic need and housing.



Population growth of 11 to 16 year olds, by District

2011 - 2015

Office for National Statistics

SECONDARY PUPILS (Y7-11) - District level changes


Forest of Dean


• Surplus increased to 1143 places (22%) by 2022

Critical areas:

Smaller intakes at schools in the centre of the Forest of Dean.

Tewkesbury


• Shortfall of over 400 places (12.4%) by 2022.

Critical areas:

Significant housing in this planning area. S106 will fund additional 300 places at Cleeve.

Cotswold


• Shortfall of over 70 places (1.3%) by 2022

Critical areas:

North Cotswold – S106 funding is supporting additional accommodation at both schools.

Stroud


• Surplus reduced from 796 to 290 places (4.5%) by 2022.

Critical areas:

No major issues in either of the two planning areas.



Gloucester


• Shortfall of over 850 places (7.9%) by 2022

Critical areas:

Mobility of pupils is a challenge.

Two schools are consulting on expansion.

Extreme north and south of the city will be under pressure as a result of housing.

Cheltenham


• Shortfall of almost 700 places (14.6%) by 2022.

Critical areas: Leckhampton and Hatherley.

Schools in these areas are popular with parents from a wide geography.

Over 240 pupils expected from housing.



Core strategies ‘A core strategy document is the key compulsory local development

document specified in United Kingdom planning law.

Every other local development document is built on the principles it sets

out, regarding the development and use of land in a local planning

authority's area.‘

The six district councils are at varying stages of

completion of their strategies.

In total, there are emerging plans and proposals

to build in the region of 50,000 new homes across

the six districts by 2031. Some of these have

already been given outline planning permission.

Joint Core Strategy (JCS) www.gct-jcs.org

Cheltenham Borough Council,

Gloucester City Council and

Tewkesbury Borough Council have

prepared a Joint Core Strategy ,

identifying the need for

approximately 35,000 new homes:

• Gloucester 14,359 new homes

• Cheltenham 10,917 new homes

• Tewkesbury 9,899 new homes

• The Forest of Dean District

Council Core Strategy includes 4,812

new homes.

• Stroud District Council projections

suggest a need for at least 11,400 new

homes.

• Cotswold District Council has

established a need for 8,400 dwellings.

How important is school size?

Small and large schools: pros and cons Curriculum Academic achievement

Attention to students Community

Finance Safety

Conclusions

• easier to develop more meaningful connections among staff,

students and parents in small schools.

• Large schools may lack a sense of community, but small schools

aren’t able to offer as wide a range of activities and a broad

curriculum.

• Some studies show small schools demonstrate higher

achievement levels among students.

• The right size school for your child will depend on his or her

needs for attention, curricular offerings and activities.

• Size is only one factor to look at in evaluating a school; the

quality of the teachers and what they teach are important factors to consider, too.

Preferred models

At present, we have three types of primary school:

• Infant - Reception, Year 1 and Year 2

• Junior - Years 3 ,4, 5 and 6

• Primary - Reception through to Year 6.

Pupils transfer to secondary schools generally at age 11.

Looking ahead, we may consider other models of schools. One

model that is being explored is all-through schools.

An all-through school could take pupils in reception at the age of

four and give them an option to remain until the end of Year 11 or

sixth-form at 18.

Surplus places

The Audit Commission produced a

management handbook called Trading

Places, recommending that local

authorities maintain a surplus capacity

of between 5% and10% across their

supply of places.

Increasing Published Admission Number

(PAN)

• Admission authorities MUST notify their local authority

of their intention to increase the school’s PAN and

reference to the change should be made on the school’s

website.

• Own admission authorities are not required to consult

on a proposal to increase their PAN.

• For community or VC schools, the local authority must

consult at least the governing body of the school on a

proposed increase to PAN.

• There is a strong presumption in favour of an increase

to the PAN.

Source: School Admissions Code Dec 2014

Case studies

1.Expansion of Primary School –

temporary or permanent?

2.New secondary school for a

large strategic development

Documents

Shaping the Future of Education in Gloucestershire...to 150 places (2.4%) by 2022 Critical areas: Cirencester (Chesterton), Fairford, Moreton-in-Marsh and Bourton-on-the-Water, all