Shaping the Future of welsh RetailRetail industry recommendations to the Welsh Government for its 2018-19 Budget

2 // WRC - Shaping the Future of welsh Retail

A SNAPSHOT

137,000 retail jobs in wales

25% All Business Rates for Wales

12,880 Retail Outlets in Wales 2016

Retail Contributes: of Welsh GVA

of Welsh Businesses are Retailers

9%

32bn Across the UK Retail Pays Tax Per Year

6%

25%

CONTENTS

Foreword 4

Economic overview 6

CHIEF RECOMMENDATIONS 7

Detailed recommendations 8

A Retail Strategy for Wales and the Welsh Economic Strategy 8

Business Rates 8

Welsh Income Tax 9

New Devolved Taxes 10

ApprenticeshipLevy 10

LandTransactionTax 11

Fees,Charges&Levies 11

Deposit Return Scheme (DRS) 11

Regulation 12

Infrastructure 12

Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) - Alcohol 12

WindfallConsequentials 13

Conclusion 13

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The WRC welcomes the opportunity to engage in discussion on the forthcomingWelshbudgetgiventheprivilegedpositionthatretailoccupiesattheheartofourlocalcommunities.

Asthenation’slargestprivatesectoremployerandadrivingforceintheWelsheconomyweunderstandhowbudgetarydecisionscanhavewiderangingimplicationsonbothretailersandourconsumers.Andweareacutelyawareofthechallengesanddifficultdecisionsfacedintryingtomanagethebudget;thesearechallengesthatwegrapplewithonadailybasis,asanindustrythatisundergoingtransformationalchangeandwhichisfacedwithtestingoperatingenvironments.

Increasingfoodandrawmaterialspriceinflationhasbroughtanendtoaneardecadelong period of falling consumer prices, but the fall in the value of Sterling and the impactoffierce,technologyenabledcompetitionmeansthatretailers’marginsareactuallydepresseddespiteoftenmodestlyincreasedpricesforthecustomer.Overthenextdecadetheindustrywillcontinueitsfundamentalchange;becomingmoreautomatedandmoreproductive,butultimatelyemployingsignificantlyfewerpeoplefrommanyfewerphysicalretaillocations.Ascanbeseenfromthecontinueddeclinein the number of shops in Wales, these issues are just the most visible symptoms of theprofoundstructuralchangethatthetraditionalmodelofretailisundergoing.

Itisinthiscontextofenormouschallengeandtransitionthatthecumulativeburdenofgovernment-imposedcostshasbecomeanincreasinglyacuteissue.Inadditiontothelackofreformoftheoutdatedbusinessratessystem,thecumulativeburdenisseeingretailerschallengedwiththeimplicationsofregulatorycostsincludingtheNationalLivingWage,theApprenticeshipLevyandrisingstatutoryincreasesinemployerpensioncontributions.

Ultimately,thefiscalenvironmentiscrucial.Asubstantiallyreformedbusinessratessystemthatadaptstothechangingretailworldwillbefundamentaltothis.Overthenextdecadetherevenuesfrombusinessratesfromretailwillfall.Ifthegovernmentwantsthatfalltobeofamanagednature,theyneedtotakeswiftanddecisiveactiontoreducethecounter-productivelyhighshareofthetotalbusinessratesburdenbornebyretail.Otherwisetherevenuefallwillbemoresevereastheeconomic case for retaining shops becomes less and less sustainable and retailers thus have no choice but to close units and shed jobs at a faster pace than would otherwise benecessary.

InrecognitionoftheroletheretailindustrycanplayweareencouragedbytherecentappointmentofaleadofficialwithinWelshGovernmentfortheretailindustry;wehope that the appointment will ensure that the retail industry is at the forefront of emergingpolicy.

FOREWORD

However,wecontinuetopressthecaseforaretailstrategyforWales,orattheveryleasttherecognitionofourindustrywithintheforthcomingWelshGovernmenteconomicstrategyandthesubsequentactionplans.Theretailindustryisintegral indevelopingsuccessfulandresilientcommunities,itisnotsolelyaboutjobsandgrowthbuttheroleourindustrycanplayindevelopingwidercommunitybenefit;whetherthatbeeconomic,socialorenvironmental.Everyyear,manyretailersmakesignificantinvestmentsinhelpingtoimprovethecommunitiestheyserve,goingfarbeyondofferingawiderangeofqualityproductsinahighlycompetitivemarket.

The retail industry looks for a long-term strategic economic vision which will encourageinvestment,anddelivereconomicgrowth.Forretailersthebudgetprovidesagreatopportunitytoassisttheindustrytobemoreproductive,stimulateinvestmentandbolsterconsumersentiment.WewelcometheopportunitytocontinuetoengageacrossallGovernmentdepartmentstoensurewetakeapartnershipapproachtobuildingasustainableindustrywhichcontinuestosupportcommunitiesacrossWales.

SARA JONES HeadoftheWelshRetailConsortium

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ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

ThelongtermtrendtowardsagrowingandwealthierpopulationpresentsgenuineopportunitiesfortheretailindustryinWales.Retailcontinuestobelargestprivatesectoremployer,with137,000colleagues,aswellasoneofitsmostdynamicsectors.However,thisisachallengingtimeforWales’sretailers.Retailsalesgrowthhasbeenanaemic for the past three years, against a backdrop of profound structural, economic and regulatory change for the industry added to more recently by a lack of clarity over whatBrexitwilllooklike.

Retailersarerespondingbyseekingtobecomeproductivethroughinvestinginthefuture.Thatincludesinvestingin:newtechnology,ahigherskilledworkforce,andrevampedlogisticscapabilities.Yetthisinvestmentistakingplaceatatimewhenpublicpolicycostsaregrowing.

Consumerspending,themainstayofWales’seconomyandareliablesourceofeconomicgrowth,facesheadwindsinthemonthsaheadashouseholdfinancescontendwithrisingoverallinflation,weakerearningsgrowth,anddomesticcostpressures.Competitionandinnovationwithinthesectorhasdeliveredsubstantialbenefitsforconsumersandhashelpedkeepdownthecostofliving,andourShopPriceIndexhasrecordedfouryearsoffallingshopprices.However,theeraofsustainedfallingpricesattillsiscomingtoanend,asretailersfinditincreasinglydifficulttoabsorbamixtureofrisingglobalfoodcommodityprices,fluctuationsintheexchangeratesincetheBrexitvote,andchangesinpublicpolicycosts.

Areasofdiscretionaryspendarebeingaffectedthemost,withsalesofnon-fooditemsstrugglingwhilstgroceriesandonlinesalesperformbetter.TheshopvacancyrateinWalescontinuestostandhigherthantheUKaverageat12.1%,abovethe9.6%averageseenacrosstheUK.

Theoutlookremainschallenging.Withfallingshopprices,increasingemptyshops,andfewershoppersinstores,theindustrywillbelookingforcertaintyandcontinuityovertheforthcomingperiod.AtthesametimewewillbeaskingGovernmentto examine where, using the levers at its disposal, it can reduce the burden and help improve the economic prospects for an industry that plays a pivotal role in communitiesacrossWales.

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CHIEF RECOMMENDATIONS

Theretailindustry’schiefrecommendationsfortheWelshGovernment’s upcomingBudget:

• EnsurethatretailisprioritisedintheforthcomingWelshEconomicStrategy,and the industry is engaged in helping to support and deliver on the subsequent actionsplans.

• Build on the current Small Business Rates Review by bringing forward an immediate review on reforming business rates for all over the decade ahead, to ensureratesbetterflexwitheconomicconditions.Deliveramedium-termplantosubstantiallylowertheratesburden.

• Maintain the commitment to not increase the rate of income tax during the course ofthisassembly(post2019).

• Introduceamoratoriumonneworadditionalratesleviesduringtheremainderofthe current parliamentary term

• ProvideanannualreviewontheimplementationoftheApprenticeshipLevyinWalesandconsidertakingforwardaFlexibleSkillsFund.

• Engage the retail industry at the earliest possible opportunity on any proposals thatarisefromthenationaldebateonnewtaxpowers.Ensurethattheunintended consequence of any move to introduce are fully costed and appreciated,andrejectthosewhichwillnegativelyimpactontheretailindustrygiventheongoingcostpressuresandtransformationalchangethatisbeingexperienced.

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A Retail Strategy for Wales and the Welsh Economic Strategy

TheWRCwelcomestheappointmentofaretailleadofficialwithinWelshGovernmentto support our engagement across all sectors and ensure that the industry is representedatanearlystageinpolicydevelopmentandnewlegislation.Earlycontactwithindividualretailersbytheleadofficialiscrucial,andwearekeentoseeaformalprocessofengagementwiththeofficialthroughourWRCBoardmeetings.

WearecognisantofthenewEconomicStrategywhichisbeingdraftedanddueforimminentpublicationbytheWelshGovernment.Wewouldaskthatthestrategyacknowledgestherolethattheretailindustryhastoplay.

AsthelargestprivatesectoremployerinWales,andaccountingforaquarterofbusiness rates both government and retailers have a shared interest in improving the conditionsfortheindustrytoflourishandsucceed.Wewouldalsoaskthattheactionplansthataredevelopedtoimplementthestrategyutilisestheskillsandexperienceoftheretailindustryandidentifieswaysinwhichourmemberscansupportonmeetingaspirations.

The retail industry is undergoing seismic change against a challenging backdrop driven bychangesinshoppinghabits,newtechnology,stiffcompetition,andburgeoningcosts1.Thesechangesarealreadyhavingprofoundimplicationsforfirm’sbusinessmodelsandinvestmentplans,jobsandproductivity.Thechangeswillalsohaveprofoundimplicationstoofordevolvedpublicpolicy,particularlyforemploymentprospectsinmorevulnerablecommunitiesmorereliantonretailjobs,forourtowncentresandforfuturerevenuesfromtaxessuchasbusinessrates.

Consequently,wecontinuetocallforajointretailstrategytobedevelopedinorderto support a more strategic and coherent approach towards public policy which nurturesthegrowthoftheindustryoverthedecadeahead.Thestrategyoughttoincludeaclearroad-mapsettingouttheintendedregulatoryandtaxchangesthatarelikelytoimpactontheindustryoverthedecade.Thiswillbeofbenefittoretailandthecustomersitserves,butalsoitssubstantialsupplychainandtheothersectorsittouches.

Business Rates

AccordingtotheOECDcommercialpropertytaxesintheUKarethehighestintheOECD2.TaxrevenuesfrombusinessratesinWaleshaveleaptby38%overthepast10yearsandfirmshavefacedrisesintheheadlinepoundageratefrom41.4pto49.9pinthe£overthesameperiod.Retailisapropertyintensiveindustrybutisbecominglessso,duringthepastsixyearstherehasbeenanetreductionof780shopsinWales(6%ofthetotal)whichultimatelymeanslesstaxrevenuesforgovernment.RetailersarekeentoseefundamentalreformofWales’s£993mannualbusiness rates system in order to support investment, business growth and revive ourhighstreetswhere1outofevery8premisesisvacant.Keepingtaxesdownandpredictablehelpsretailersfundtheirinvestmentplans,asretainedprofitsareacrucialsourceoffinancinginvestmentintentions.

1.ThecumulativeimpactofrecentUKpublicpolicyhasforexamplemeantretailersrespondingtotheNationalLivingWageandhigher employerpensioncontributions,overandabovetheApprenticeshipLevyandrisesinbusinessrates2.CommercialpropertytaxesintheUKarethehighestinOECD:https://data.oecd.org/tax/tax-on-property.htm

DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS

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WithSeptember’sRPIexpectedtobeintheregionof4%retailersarelikelytofacea£280millionincreaseinbusinessratesacrosstheUKinApril2018leadingtofewershopsandfewerjobs.WeremainconcernedthatcommunitiesacrossWalescannotaffordafurtherincreaseinbusinessratesandtheresultinglossofinvestment.Waitinguntil2020,orlater,toslowthegrowingburdenforratepayersbyswitchingtoCPIindexationissimplytoolate.AfairerlevelofpropertytaxationthatiscompetitivecomparedtootherOECDandEuropeancountriesisneedednowtoencourageinvestment.

WeaskthattheWelshGovernmentcontinuestoprovidegreaterurgencytotherangeofoptionswhichmayrecastbusinessratesforthedecadeaheadanddeliverasystemwhichismodern,sustainable,coherentandcompetitive.Afundamentallyreformedratessystemwhichflexeswitheconomicandtradingconditionsandleadstoasubstantiallylowertaxburdenwouldincreaseretailers’confidenceaboutinvestinginnewandrefurbishedshoppremisesandhelprevivehighstreetsandtowncentres.

Attheheartofthisagendashouldbeamedium-termplantosubstantiallylowertheratesburdenwithmorefrequentrevaluations,ensuringindependentvaluations,shouldbeimplementedatevery3yearsandamovetounderstandingthelegislativevehiclebywhichCPIindexationcanbetakenforward.

There are also a number of shorter term measures which Ministers should pursue and theseshouldincludeamoratoriumonanyneworadditionalbusinessratetaxesandthattheoutcomesoftheSBRRconsultation,whichgenerallyisawelcomerecognitionoftheneedtokeepdowncostsforfirms,doesnotundulyimpactonmultiplesandlargepremises.

Thecurrentratessystemisopaque,unwieldyandonlyseemstofunctionthroughamyriadofexemptionsandreliefsthatcontinuetogrowasanoverallproportionofthetotalincomefrombusinessrates.Wequestionhowsustainablethis‘stickingplaster’approachisandhoweffectiveitwillbe.

Welsh Income Tax

Theretailindustrytakesagreatinterestinpersonaltaxationissuesbecauseofthepotentialimpactoncustomers’disposableincomesanddiscretionaryspending,thepotentialimpactonemployeesandonretailers’administrativesystems,andbecauseofthepotentialknockonimplicationsforothertaxes.

Any moves which would lead to those working in Wales having to pay higher taxes thanelsewhereintheUKcouldaffecttheabilityofretailerstoretainorattracttalent- either on a permanent or temporary basis - especially when compared to other parts oftheUK.Walesisanattractiveplacetoliveandworkandinorderforittoremainsowe would request Ministers to maintain the commitment to not increase the rate of incometaxduringthecourseofthisassembly.

Theamountconsumershavetospendisofcourseinfluencedbyawiderangeoffactorsincludingthecostoflivingwhichcanbeaffectedbybroaderpublicpolicydecisions.Retailerscananddoplaytheirpartinkeepingdownthecostofliving forfamilies.

10 // WRC - Shaping the Future of welsh Retail

TheWRCbelievesWales’sprospectscanbeenhancedfurtherbyusingfuturepowersoverincometaxtopositivelysupporttheeconomyandconsumerspending.Thebestoutcome for retailers, households and the economy is for income tax rates for the vast majorityoftheWelshpublictobeatleastascompetitiveastheyareovertheborder.

New Devolved Taxes

WiththerecentannouncementbytheCabinetSecretaryregardingthenationaldebateonideasforpotentialnewWelshtaxes3,theWelshRetailConsortiumiskeentooutlineandengageontheseideasattheearliestpossiblestage.

WhilstwearesupportiveofexamininghowthenewleversavailabletotheNationalAssembly for Wales can be used to change behaviours and deliver improvements forourcommunities,wewouldurgeextremecautioninaddingundueburdenandfinancialpenaltyonasectorthatisundergoingsuchtransformationalchangeandwhichislikelytoseeacontractioninitsstorefootprintandjobsovertheforthcomingperiod.Wewouldalsosuggestthat,ifthedrivingforceischangingbehaviour,howwecanuseexistingtoolsratherthantaxationasameanstochange.

ReflectingonsomeoftheproposalsmootedbytheBevanFoundationreportwhichwere cited by the Finance Secretary, our concerns would be drawn to the unintended consequenceshouldsomeoftheseproposalsbeprogressedfurther.Decisionmakersmustbemindfulofthecrossborderimpactofintroducingnewlegislation,whichislikelytobeasacuteinourbordercommunitiesasanywhereelseintheUK.Withsuch a porous border, and with the recent announcement on the scrapping of the SevernBridgetolls,thereisthepotentialforconsumerstomovemorefluidlyand a greater focus for business to consider where it invests should undue costs be imposedthroughtaxation.

Apprenticeship Levy

RetailershaveastrongrecordontrainingandcareerprogressioninWales’slocalcommunities,withmanyprovidingawiderangeofapprenticeshipsindiverseareassuchaslogistics,warehousingandfoodpreparationalongsidemanyotheraccreditedorjobrelatedqualifications.Thatrecordisunderthreatbytheasymmetricapproachtotheimplementationofthe(UK-imposed)ApprenticeshipLevy.

RetailersinWalesareestimatedtocontributecirca£9millionayeartowardstheLevy,forwhichitremainssomewhatunclearwhattheygetinreturn,withmanyviewingitassimplyanothercumulativecostburden.TheWRCwelcomedthedecisionbytheWelshGovernmenttoincreaseitsinvestmentduringthecurrentfinancialyearinLevel2apprenticeships,followinginitialproposalstoreducethenumberofplacesavailable.Weaskthatthisfundingismaintainedandthataone-yearreviewisinitiatedwiththepotentialthatthisreviewcouldleadtoaFlexibleSkillsFund.

3.‘Haveyoursayinthedevelopmentofpotentialnewtaxes’,WelshGovernmentstatement,4July2017

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Land Transaction Tax

Due to the nature and scalability of the industry many retailers have a choice over wheretobuy,rentorinvestinretailpremisesandwarehousesintheUK.WiththeLandTransactionTaxreplacingStampDutyLandTaxinWalesfromApril2018therates,bandsandthresholdsforLandTransactionTaxmustensureWales’staxesonpurchasesofcommercialpropertyarecompetitive.

Fees, Charges & Levies

TheWelshGovernment,itsagencies,andWelshlocalauthoritiesdetermineorarehighlyinfluentialinthesettingofanumberoffees,chargesandlevieswhichareorcanbeapplicabletoretailers.Theseincludeplanningapplicationfees,BusinessImprovement District levies, water and sewerage charges, fees for building warrants andtheCarrierBagCharge.TheWRCiskeentoseeeffective,well-resourcedandconsistentregulatoryservices,underpinnedbyaclearrationaleforvariationsinchargeswithcommensurateimprovementsinservicesandbasedontimelydialoguewiththeindustry.

Deposit Return Scheme (DRS)

Welsh retail is amongst the most climate-conscious industries and retailers have taken aleadinreducingtheenvironmentalimpactsofboththeirowndirectoperations andsupportingimprovementsrightalongtheirsupplychainandwithcustomers4.

AlongsidetheeffortsbeingmadebyindustryitiswelcomenewsthatWalesisnowrankedthethirdbestrecyclingnationintheworld.

TheWelshGovernmentiscurrentlyundertakingresearchintoExtendedProducerResponsibility and will look at the feasibility of a Deposit Returns Scheme as part ofthisresearch.Wecontinuetoworkcloselywithofficialsonthisissue,whilstremainingfirmlyopposedtoanysuchschemefordrinksandothercontainers.Suchanation-widedepositschemeor‘bottletax’woulddisproportionatelypenalisetheconsumerbypushingupprices,bytensofmillionsofpounds,atatimehouseholdfinancesarecomingunderincreasingstrain.ADRSwouldundermineexistingkerbsiderecycling,forwhichthereareambitiousplansandwhichalreadybenefitsfromsignificantsumsofsunkinvestmentfromtaxpayers.

Furthernegativeconsequenceswouldbeanincreaseincarbonemissionsthroughextraconsumerjourneysandretailerhaulageoperations;askingshopsandgrocerydeliveryvanstotakewastelikethiscouldincurenvironmentalhealthissues.ADRSalsohasthepotentialtodisproportionatelyimpactonconsumerswithmobilityissues.TheequipmentrequiredtoaccommodateaDRSwouldreducetradingspaceinshopsonourhighstreetswhichisincongruouswithanyambitionstorevitalisetowncentres.Wewouldseeafurtherlossoftradingspace,costsofstorage,associatedinstallationinfrastructure,andstafftraining.Givenournation’spositiverecyclingfigures,andtheongoingeducationalinitiativesbeingundertakenbyWelshGovernmentandlocalauthoritiestoencouragegreaterrecycling,webelievetheintroductionofaDepositReturnSchemewouldbearetrogradestep.

4.‘ABetterRetailingClimate:DrivingResourceEfficiencyinWales’,WRC,2015

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Regulation

Withasignificantnumberofretailersoperatingonanationalandinternationalstagethe ease and cost of doing business is a major factor in their decisions of where to invest.Importantstepshavebeentakeninrecentyearsincludingthedevelopment of Primary Authority which will guarantee greater regulatory consistency across the22localauthoritiesinWales.Wearekeentoensurefutureregulationstakefullaccountofthedramaticstructuralchangeoccurringinindustrieslikeretailandwewould welcome the opportunity for further discussion with our industry in ensuring thatregulationdoesnotplaceunnecessaryburdenonretailersgiventhecurrent fluxfacingtheindustry.

Infrastructure

Transportisvitaltothesuccessoftheretailindustry.Withoutletslocatedinmostcitiesandtowns,retailersrelyonaccesstogoodqualityandreliabletransportforthedailyoperationoftheirbusinesses–foreaseofaccessforcustomers,todelivergoods,andtoenableemployeestoreachtheworkplace.

Rail is increasingly used to distribute freight for retailers around the country, and changesincustomerdemandandhowpeopleshopisputtingapremiumonhavingeffectivehighspeedbroadband.Asaresult,anywindfall‘consequentials’receivedfromUKBudgetsshouldbeusedforGDP-enhancinginfrastructureprojectsor towncentreregenerationwhichbenefitthebusinessenvironment.

Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) - Alcohol

TheWelshGovernmenthasannouncedthatitwillthisyearintroducelegislationthatwillmakeitillegalforalcoholtobesoldbelowasetprice.RetailershavehadanumberofconcernsaroundMUP.Firstly,onprincipleweopposemeasureswhichinterferewiththemarketandputcostsupforourcustomers.SecondlywebelievethereisaconcernthatMUPmayhitlessaffluentmoderateconsumersofalcoholwhilstnotnecessarilyhavingthedesiredimpactonproblemdrinkers. However,ifMUPisbroughtin,it’scrucialthatthereisaclearandrigorousapproachtakentoassessingtheimpactofthepolicy.Aswellasthedataside,thatalsorequiresGovernmentnottobringforwardanyfurthermeasureswhichwouldmakeitimpossibletoaccuratelyunderstandwhattheimpactofMUPhasbeen.TheWRCisamemberoftheWelshGovernmentAlcoholIndustryNetworkandwillcontinueto work with all partners on this issue and promote the use of a range of targeted measureswhicharelikelytoproduceagreaterimpact.

WRC - Shaping the Future of welsh Retail 13

CONTACT DETAILS

SARA JONES HeadoftheWelshRetailConsortium Sara.Jones@brc.org.uk 07785619333

Windfall Consequentials

AnywindfallconsequentialsreceivedbythedevolvedadministrationfromUKBudgetsshouldbeusedtokeepdownbusinesstaxesanddirectedtowardsGDP-enhancinginfrastructureandtowncentreenhancements.

Conclusion

Retail is an industry undergoing enormous structural change during a sustained period of weak demand, and growing government-imposed costs have become an acute issue.WebelievethisBudgetprovidesanexcellentopportunitytobettersupporttheindustry’spotential,togrowandflourishcontinuingtosupportcommunitiesinWalesandofferjobopportunitiesasWales’slargestprivatesectoremployer.Weareverymuchopentofurtherdialogueonhowthiscanbebetterrealised.

ABOUT THE WRC

Retailisanexciting,diverseanddynamicindustryundergoingtransformationalchange.TheWRCisattheforefront–enhancing,assisting,informingandshaping.Ourmissionistomakeapositivedifference totheretailindustryandtothecustomersitserves.Ourbroadrangeofstakeholdersdemonstrateshowretailingtouchesalmosteveryaspectofourculture.The WRC leads the industry and works with our memberstoshapedebatesandinfluenceissuesandopportunitiesthatwillhelpmakethatpositivedifference.Wecareaboutthecareersofpeoplewhoworkinourindustry,thecommunitiesretailtouchesandcompetitivenessasafundamentalprincipleoftheindustry’ssuccess–our3Cs.

Inadditiontopublishingleadingbell-weatherindicatorsonWelshfootfallandshopvacanciesintowncentres,ourpolicypositionsareinformedbyour255-strongmembershipanddeterminedbytheWRC’sBoard.

welsh RETAIL CONSORTIUM

WelshRetailConsortium,Suite103,209CityRoad, Cardiff,CF243JD|07785619333|info@brc.org.ukBritishRetailConsortium-acompanylimitedbyguaranteeRegisteredinEnglandandWalesNo.405720|10260mb17