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Rodolfo SabongeVicepresident Market
Research and AnalysisJanuary 15, 2009
Update on the Panama Canal ExpansionUpdate on the Panama Canal ExpansionShifting International Trade RoutesShifting International Trade Routes
• Canal Performance Indicators
• Canal Expansion Program
• Impact and Repercussions of The New Locks
• Canal Performance Indicators
• Canal Expansion Program
• Impact and Repercussions of The New Locks
PCUMS TONNAGEPCUMS TONNAGE
Average PC/UMS Tonnage for Commercial Transits
Average PC/UMS Tonnage for Commercial Transits
4,8324,832 9,9319,931 18,94018,940 23,51023,510
FY 1955 FY 1975 FY 1995 FY 2008
Traffic and RevenuesTraffic and Revenues
OPERATIONAL RESULTS FY-2008
Transits 14,702
Cargo (millions of PC/UMS tons) 309.6
Canal Waters Time (hours) – booked 18.52
31.54Canal Waters Time (hours) – regular
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008
Mill
ion
dolla
rs
Revenues Expenses EBITDA
REVENUES
EBITDA
EXPENSES
(B/. MM) 2000 2008* Var.
Revenues 769 1,994 1,225
128
942EBITDA 140 1,082
Expenses 427 555
*Estimated
Investment ProgramInvestment Program
DredgingDredging
LocomotivesLocomotives
Hydraulic SystemHydraulic System
TechnologyTechnology Rail SystemRail System TugboatsTugboats
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
113113
2007
Accumulated Investment(in millions of US Dollars)Accumulated Investment(in millions of US Dollars)
92 397233144115207126142113
Per year 2008 Proj.
1,5691,569
Project to improve locks chamber lightingProject to improve locks chamber lighting
Started in May 2005, completed in June 200892 high mast light fixtures were replaced, resulting in an increase in brightness as high as 300% between poles.107 retractile luminaries installed in Miraflores Locks; 40 in Pedro Miguel; and 132 in Gatun.
Started in May 2005, completed in June 200892 high mast light fixtures were replaced, resulting in an increase in brightness as high as 300% between poles.107 retractile luminaries installed in Miraflores Locks; 40 in Pedro Miguel; and 132 in Gatun.
New TugboatsNew Tugboats
Eight new tugboats arrived between January 2007 and August 2008 .Contracted 13 more tugboats, the first tugboat is scheduled to arrive by mid 2010.The contract also includes 2 options for 7 additional tugboats each, which will augment the current fleet to 42 tugboats by FY 2014.
Eight new tugboats arrived between January 2007 and August 2008 .Contracted 13 more tugboats, the first tugboat is scheduled to arrive by mid 2010.The contract also includes 2 options for 7 additional tugboats each, which will augment the current fleet to 42 tugboats by FY 2014.
RFP for 2 new tender dredge tugboats in FY 2009, to assist dredging work for the Expansion Program.
RFP for 2 new tender dredge tugboats in FY 2009, to assist dredging work for the Expansion Program.
Second Tie-Up Station North of Pedro Miguel Locks
Second Tie-Up Station North of Pedro Miguel Locks
Completed in December 2008.2 additional transits each day, important during fog season. Completed in December 2008.2 additional transits each day, important during fog season.
Merry-Go-Round System in Gatun LocksMerry-Go-Round System in Gatun Locks
Merry-Go-Round operations with the new turn tables began in October, 2008.The gain in throughput, together with the second tie-up station in Cartagena will increase capacity by two Panamax transits a day.
Merry-Go-Round operations with the new turn tables began in October, 2008.The gain in throughput, together with the second tie-up station in Cartagena will increase capacity by two Panamax transits a day.
New Cutter Suction DredgeNew Cutter Suction Dredge
RFP for new cutter suction dredge which will eventually replace the existing dredge, Mindi. RFP for new cutter suction dredge which will eventually replace the existing dredge, Mindi.
ACP PIERCES A3 PANAMA’S COUNTRY CEILING
ACP PIERCES A3 PANAMA’S COUNTRY CEILING
• Moody’s Investors Service rated A1 Government Related Issuer (“GRI”)
• The Proposed Senior Unsecured Debt Obligations of approximately $2 Billion of the Panama Canal Authority received a Prospective (P) A2
• In Moody’s view, the Panama Canal Expansion Program will likely be completed successfullygiven ACP’s management experience
0% 0% 0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%0.5% 1% 1.2% 2% 4% 7%10%
14%18%
24%
33%
44%
66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
AaaAa1Aa2Aa3A1 A2 A3 Baa1Baa2Baa3Ba1Ba2Ba3B1 B2 B3 Caa1Caa2Caa3
Credit Rating
Default Probability
Investment Grade
Speculative Grade
0% 0% 0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%0.5% 1% 1.2% 2% 4% 7%10%
14%18%
24%
33%
44%
66%
0% 0% 0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%0.5% 1% 1.2% 2% 4% 7%10%
14%18%
24%
33%
44%
66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
AaaAa1Aa2Aa3A1 A2 A3 Baa1Baa2Baa3Ba1Ba2Ba3B1 B2 B3 Caa1Caa2Caa3
Credit Rating
Default Probability
Investment Grade
Speculative Grade
Country Ceiling
Sovereign Rating
ACP
In the relevant routes (Asia-east coast of the United States) the Panama Canal transported 43.0% of the Panama Canal trade cargo in 2008.
The Panama Canal Trade and Main UsersThe Panama Canal Trade and Main Users
64% of Canal cargo traffic originates in or is destined to the United States
Total Cargo Movement FY 2008USERS FY 2007* FY 2008* 2008 (%)
United States 136.8 133.7 64
China 43.7 43.7 21
Chile 22.0 26.7 13
European Union 26.5 26.1 12
Japan 29.2 24.7 12
South Korea 17.3 17.3 8
Peru 13.1 14.1 7
* Measured in Million of Long Tons
Importance of the Panama Canal Countries of America
(in millions of metric tons) CY 2007
Importance of the Panama Canal Countries of America
(in millions of metric tons) CY 2007
Carga a través del
CanalImportancia origen/Total Exportaciones
Importancia del Canal para
las exportaciones
Carga a través del
Canal Importancia
Destino/Total Importaciones
Importacia del Canal para las importaciones
País Origen % % Destino % %Argentina 0.2 0.1 93.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 14.4 0.5 Brasil 3.0 1.4 445.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 87.1 0.9 Canadá 7.5 3.6 233.1 3.2 2.3 1.1 151.5 1.5 Caribe 7.3 3.5 76.8 9.5 7.8 3.7 86.2 9.0 América Central y Panamá 5.1 2.5 19.4 26.5 16.3 7.8 41.1 39.8 Chile 12.4 5.9 42.3 29.3 10.7 5.1 20.4 52.6 Colombia 6.1 2.9 90.4 6.7 4.9 2.3 18.2 26.8 México 4.9 2.3 133.4 3.7 5.7 2.7 63.5 8.9 Otros países CE Suramérica 0.1 0.0 14.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 13.4 0.4 Ecuador 7.6 3.6 24.7 30.9 6.7 3.2 8.1 82.0 Perú 6.9 3.3 26.9 25.8 6.6 3.1 12.8 51.4 Venezuela 5.1 2.4 304.5 1.7 2.0 1.0 14.8 13.6 Estados Unidos 71.8 34.4 449.2 16.0 66.0 31.6 985.7 6.7 Total carga del Canal 208.9 208.9
Sorce: ACP with maritime trade projections of Global Insight (“Global Trade Navigator”), Jun 2008.
PC/UMS by Market Segment(in millions - FY 2002-2008)
PC/UMS by Market Segment(in millions - FY 2002-2008)
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
Container 64 79 86 98 113 128 124
Dry Bulk 57 50 53 55 59 50 51
Liquid Bulk 30 26 30 34 33 39 43
General Cargo 8 7 7 7 8 8 8
Refrigerated Cargo 16 17 18 19 17 18 18
Passenger 7 8 11 10 9 9 9
Vehicle Carrier 35 37 37 36 37 41 40
Others 17 19 24 20 20 19 17
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Growth of container traffic throughthe Panama Canal (1995 - 2008)
Growth of container traffic throughthe Panama Canal (1995 - 2008)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Tran
sits
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Mill
ion
TEU
s
Transits (1,302 - 3,544)
Capacity TEUs (0.75M-12.9M)
Based on the capacity of transiting vessels – Source: ComPair Data
IMPACT OF U.S. ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ON CONTAINER SERVICES THROUGH THE PANAMA CANAL
IMPACT OF U.S. ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ON CONTAINER SERVICES THROUGH THE PANAMA CANAL
Oct. Oct.
20012001
Oct. Oct.
20022002
Oct. Oct.
20032003
Oct. Oct.
20042004
Oct. Oct.
20052005
Oct. Oct.
20062006
Oct. Oct.
20072007
Oct. Oct.
20082008
Capacity (M. TEUs) 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.2 5.1 6.5 6.3 6.4
Vessels Deployed 181 198 256 264 270 324 290 299
Average Vessel Size (TEUs) 2,816 2,942 3,189 3,201 3,298 3,516 3,559 3,595
Number of Services Through the Canal 20 23 32 33 34 42 38 37
• Canal Performance Indicators
Short-term Forecast
• Canal Performance Indicators
Short-term Forecast
World Economic OutlookWorld Economic Outlook
4.22.5-1.54.97.49.1Goods
World trade growth (%)
8.07.47.09.411.911.6China
1.40.5-1.21.12.62.9Euro area
0.90.5-1.70.12.42.0Japan
2.10.7-2.01.12.02.8US
2.71.5-0.42.43.94.1World (market exchange rates)
Real GDP growth (%)
201120102009200820072006
Economist Intelligence UnitJanuary, 2009
8.59.18.55.84.68.88.47.66.8Unemployment Rate (percent)
69.065.157.163.785.657.255.258.057.7Consumer Sentiment (Univ. Of Michigan)
1.3390.9760.6040.9061.3410.6020.5610.5660.670Housing Starts (Millions)
3.42.4-2.23.82.92.2-0.9-6.9-9.3Consumer Price Index (% change y/y)
77.3851.2534.2599.5972.1835.0030.0032.6758.45Oil Price, WTI (Dollars/barrel)
4.863.362.333.674.632.342.222.183.26Ten-Year Treasury Yield (percent)
3.340.940.131.935.020.130.130.130.54Federal Funds Rate (percent)
3.22.2-2.51.22.00.5-1.8-5.4-5.6US Real GDP (percent change)
2011201020092008200709:309:209:108:4
AnnualQuarterlyIHS Global InsightJanuary, 2009
Source: ACP with information from The Economist Intelligence Unit.
U.S. GDP Growth Forecasts(Source: EIU)
-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
(ann
ual g
row
th ra
te %
)
April 2006
Jan 2007
Real
Feb 2008
Jul 2008
Sep 2008
Nov 2008
World trade could decrease for the first time in more than 20 years
World trade could decrease for the first time in more than 20 years
World Trade Growth(EIU, Dec 2008)
-202468
101214
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rat
e of
Gro
wth
(%)
World Developed Countries Developing Countries
US Containerized Imports from North East AsiaUS Containerized Imports from North East Asia(in million TEUs)(in million TEUs)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 TotalUS East Coast .6 .6 .7 2.0 .6 .6 .7 2.0 3.5% 3.7% -3.9% 0.8%Us Gulf Coast .0 .0 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 9.6% 3.7%-15.7% -2.2%US East C. Total .7 .7 .8 2.1 .7 .7 .8 2.1 3.9% 3.7% -4.7% 0.6%US West Coast 2.0 2.2 2.3 6.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 5.7 -8.6%-10.8%-10.0% -9.9%Total 2.6 2.8 3.0 8.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 7.9 -5.5% -7.4% -8.6% -7.3%
2007 2008 % Var
Source: PIERS
China´s GrowthChina´s Growth
UPDATE 1-IMF: lower China growth, unprecedented slowdownMon Dec 15, 2008 7:22am EST MADRID, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The IMF could cut its forecast for Chinese 2009 economic growth to around 5 percent in its next revision as theglobal economy suffers an unprecedented slowdown, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Monday.In its last forecast released in November, the International Monetary Fund had predicted that China's growth would fall to 8.5 percent in 2009 from 9.7 percent this year. November's forecast for 2009 was 0.8 percentage points lower than the IMF's previous forecast."We started with China at 11 pct growth, then 8, then 7 then China will probably grow at 5 or 6 percent. The possibility of a global recession isreal, we realize something must be done," " said Strauss-Kahn during a conference in the Spanish capital."We are facing an unprecedented decline in output and we have evidence of substantial uncertainty limiting the effectiveness of some fiscal policy measures," he said."We anticipate that the gross effect will last some time. We need large and diversified stimulus support that will last longer than one or twoquarters.""An adequate level will be around 2 percent of (world) GDP -- $1.2 trillion -- and this may make a sizeable difference and reduce the risk of a damaging global recession," he said."The good news, with some exceptions, maybe a lot of exceptions, we can see the beginning of the recovery end of 2009, beginning of 2010, butthere are a lot of downside risks," he added. (Reporting by Andrew Hay; Editing by Jason Webb and Christian Lowe)
UPDATE 1-IMF: lower China growth, unprecedented slowdownMon Dec 15, 2008 7:22am EST MADRID, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The IMF could cut its forecast for Chinese 2009 economic growth to around 5 percent in its next revision as theglobal economy suffers an unprecedented slowdown, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Monday.In its last forecast released in November, the International Monetary Fund had predicted that China's growth would fall to 8.5 percent in 2009 from 9.7 percent this year. November's forecast for 2009 was 0.8 percentage points lower than the IMF's previous forecast."We started with China at 11 pct growth, then 8, then 7 then China will probably grow at 5 or 6 percent. The possibility of a global recession isreal, we realize something must be done," " said Strauss-Kahn during a conference in the Spanish capital."We are facing an unprecedented decline in output and we have evidence of substantial uncertainty limiting the effectiveness of some fiscal policy measures," he said."We anticipate that the gross effect will last some time. We need large and diversified stimulus support that will last longer than one or twoquarters.""An adequate level will be around 2 percent of (world) GDP -- $1.2 trillion -- and this may make a sizeable difference and reduce the risk of a damaging global recession," he said."The good news, with some exceptions, maybe a lot of exceptions, we can see the beginning of the recovery end of 2009, beginning of 2010, butthere are a lot of downside risks," he added. (Reporting by Andrew Hay; Editing by Jason Webb and Christian Lowe)
_
Crecimiento del PIB - China
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Fuente: EIU, Dec 2008
?
China´s GDP Growth
Freight Rates for Dry Bulk Carries by Route(Nov 2007 through Dec 2008)
Freight Rates for Dry Bulk Carries by Route(Nov 2007 through Dec 2008)
Fuente: Clarkson Research Services Limited 2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
11/2
4/06
12/2
4/06
1/24
/07
2/24
/07
3/24
/07
4/24
/07
5/24
/07
6/24
/07
7/24
/07
8/24
/07
9/24
/07
10/2
4/07
11/2
4/07
12/2
4/07
1/24
/08
2/24
/08
3/24
/08
4/24
/08
5/24
/08
6/24
/08
7/24
/08
8/24
/08
9/24
/08
10/2
4/08
11/2
4/08
12/2
4/08
Weeks
$ / t
on
Golf of Mexico to Japan Pacific NW to Asia Difference
Price of Corn (FOB)
165
177
171
160
155
165
147 15
016
416
4 171 18
020
622
023
424
624
428
726
523
523
418
316
4
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-0
7Aug-07Sep
-07Oct-
07Nov-0
7Dec
-07Ja
n-08Feb
-08Mar-
08Apr-0
8May
-08Ju
n-08Ju
l-08
Aug-08Sep
-08Oct-
08Nov-0
8
Pric
e pe
r Met
ric T
on( $
)
Fuente: World Bank, Pink Sheets. Costo FOB de maíz amarillo en puerto del Golfo, EE.UU.
Price of Coal (FOB)
52.9
52.9 55
.2 56.1 58
.1 61.6 67
.3 69.6
68.4 74
.8 84.6 91
.0 91.8
132.0
123.3
123.0
133.2
159.8
180.0
157.5
150.0
111.3
92.3
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07Ju
l-07
Aug-07Sep
-07Oct-
07Nov-0
7Dec
-07Ja
n-08Feb
-08Mar-
08Apr-0
8May
-08Ju
n-08Ju
l-08
Aug-08Sep
-08Oct-
08Nov-0
8
Pric
e pe
r Met
ric T
on($
)
Fuente: World Bank, Pink Sheets. Costo FOB de carbón australiano en puerto de Newcastle
Price of Copper
5616 5676
6452
7766
7651
7474
7973
7502 76
49 8008
6967
6588
7061
7888
8439 86
8583
8382
61 8414
7635
6991
4926
3717
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07Ju
l-07
Aug-07Sep
-07Oct-
07Nov-0
7Dec
-07Ja
n-08Feb
-08Mar-
08Apr-0
8May
-08Ju
n-08Ju
l-08
Aug-08Sep
-08Oct-
08Nov-0
8
Pric
e pe
r Met
ric T
on($
)
Fuente: World Bank, Pink Sheets. Costo del metal de cobre grado A (incluye cátodos y cables)
Price of Steel Bars (FOB)48
548
8 515 53
3 545
545
493
475
545
545 56
955
7 575 59
974
579
079
093
398
010
3079
376
068
3
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100Ja
n-07Feb
-07Mar-
07Apr-0
7May
-07Ju
n-07Ju
l-07
Aug-07Sep
-07Oct-
07Nov-0
7Dec
-07Ja
n-08Feb
-08Mar-
08Apr-0
8May
-08Ju
n-08Ju
l-08
Aug-08Sep
-08Oct-
08Nov-0
8
Pric
e pe
r Met
ric T
on($
)
Fuente: World Bank, Pink Sheets. Costo FOB de barras de acero(steel rebar) en Japón.
PC/UMS Tonnage ProjectionsPC/UMS Tonnage Projections
PCUMS Tonnage Projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
Mill
ion
tons
Historical Projections
• Canal Performance Indicators
• Canal Expansion Program
• Canal Performance Indicators
• Canal Expansion Program
Panama Canal Expansion Program Objectives
Panama Canal Expansion Program Objectives
Maintain Canal competitiveness as well as the value of the route
Increase capacity and allow the transit of larger ships
Reduce water consumption
Improve safety and efficiency
Sustain tonnage and profitability growth
Maintain Canal competitiveness as well as the value of the route
Increase capacity and allow the transit of larger ships
Reduce water consumption
Improve safety and efficiency
Sustain tonnage and profitability growth
Canal Expansion Program Components
Canal Expansion Program Components
• Deepening of Pacific and Atlantic entrance channels
• Deepening and widening of the Gatun Lake navigation channel
• Construction of new access channel for Pacific Locks
• Construction of new Post PanamaxLocks and water saving basins in the Atlantic and the Pacific
• Increase the maximum operating level of Gatun Lake
294.1 m (965’)294.1 m (965’)
33.5 m (110’)33.5 m (110’)
32.3 m (106’)32.3 m (106’)
294.1 m (965’)
294.1 m (965’)
366 m (1,200’)366 m (1,200’)
55 m (180’)55 m (180’)
49 m (160’)49 m (160’)
427 m (1,400’)
427 m (1,400’)
12.8 m (42’)
18.3 m (60’)
6
12.4 m(39.5’)12.4 m(39.5’)
15.2 m(50’)
15.2 m(50’)
Existing Locks –Maximum Vessel:Existing Locks –Maximum Vessel:4,400 TEUs4,400 TEUs
New Locks –Maximum Vessel:New Locks –Maximum Vessel: 12,600 TEUs12,600 TEUs
New LocksNew Locks
Existing Locks
Existing Locks
Dimensions of the Locks and Post-Panamax ShipsDimensions of the Locks and Post-Panamax Ships
7
Atlantic Entrance Deepening & WideningAtlantic Entrance Deepening & Widening
width: 225m (740´) ▶width: 225m (740´) ▶
Volume: 14 M m3
Bid scheduled for: December 31, 2008
8
Post-Panamax LocksPost-Panamax Locks
Atlantic and Pacific Locks(30 M m3 Dry Excavation)
Atlantic and Pacific Locks(30 M m3 Dry Excavation)
1 Contract1 Contract
Gatun LocksGatun Locks
Gatun LakeGatun Lake
Atlantic OceanAtlantic Ocean
New LocksNew Locks
Gatun DamGatun Dam
9
Atlantic Locks Atlantic Locks
West LaneWest Lane East LaneEast Lane
New LaneNew Lane
10
Pacific LocksPacific Locks
East Lane East Lane
West Lane West Lane
New Lane New Lane
North Access Channel to New Pacific Locks 46M m3 of Dry Excavation - 4 Contracts
North Access Channel to New Pacific Locks 46M m3 of Dry Excavation - 4 Contracts
PAC 4PAC 4PAC 2PAC 2PAC 3PAC 3
PAC 1PAC 1
PAC 1PAC 3
PAC 2
New Locks
PAC 4
Elev
atio
nin
Met
ers
Post-Panamax Water Saving BassinsLocks Operation
Post-Panamax Water Saving BassinsLocks Operation
Basin 1 Basin 2 Basin 3
Existing LocksExisting LocksNew LocksNew Locks
Wat
er U
tiliz
atio
nW
ater
Uti
lizat
ion
With the reutilization water basins the new Locks will use 7% less water than the existing Locks
With the reutilization water basins the new Locks will use 7% less water than the existing Locks
12
13Arrived October 10, 2008
Pacific Entrance Deepening and Widening(9.1 M m3)
Pacific Entrance Deepening and Widening(9.1 M m3)
Companies
Dredging International Boskalis International BV
Jan De Nul N.V/Van Oord Dredging and Marine Contractors BV
RFP issued: August 30, 2007.Pre-Bid Conference: September 20, 2007.Site visit: September 19, 2007.Bid Opening: March 14, 2008.Awarded: April 01, 2008.Amount: $177,500,676.78Company: Dredging International (Belgium)Start date: July, 2008.
RFP issued: August 30, 2007.Pre-Bid Conference: September 20, 2007.Site visit: September 19, 2007.Bid Opening: March 14, 2008.Awarded: April 01, 2008.Amount: $177,500,676.78Company: Dredging International (Belgium)Start date: July, 2008.
14
Contractor’s Equipment and the Pacific Entrance Dredging Works begins
Contractor’s Equipment and the Pacific Entrance Dredging Works begins
Cut & Suction DredgeCutter of 1,766 kW
Suction and Discharge of 900mm of diameter
Cut & Suction DredgeCutter of 1,766 kW
Suction and Discharge of 900mm of diameter
Hopper DredgeCapacity: 5,200 m3 / 11,650m3
Drilling & Blasting Barge of 10 TowersDrilling & Blasting Barge of 10 Towers
Cut & Suction DredgeCutter of 8,160 hp / 6,000 KwSuction and Discharge of 1,000mm of diameter
Cut & Suction DredgeCutter of 8,160 hp / 6,000 KwSuction and Discharge of 1,000mm of diameter
Vlanderen XIXVlanderen XIX
Locks Design-Build ProjectProcurement Schedule
Locks Design-Build ProjectProcurement Schedule
New dateLast Individual Meeting with
Consortia17-DIC-08
AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR APR MAY
2007 2008 2009
Issue RFQ27-AUG-07
Issue Draft RFP21-DEC-07
SOQ Due15-NOV-07
Short-ListSelection
14-DEC-07
One-on-One Meetings with
Consortia29-JAN-08
Pre-BidConference26-MAR-08
Final RFP Issued
18-APR-08
Designation of the Technical
Evaluation Committee
14 months14 months
InformationMeeting
13-SEP-07
Bid Proposal Due In
3-MAR-09
ContractAward
JUNE 2009
15
Consortio Members Designers Gate Frabricators
ACS Servicios, Comunicaciones y Energía, S.L. – Líder Sener Ingeniería y Sistemas
Acciona Infraestructuras, S.A. Haskoning Nederland BV
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A. Mott Macdonald Limited
Hochtief Construction AG Hochtief Consult
C.A.N.A.L.
Constructoras ICA S.A. de C.V.
ACS Servicios, Comunicaciones y Energía, S.L.
Bouygues Travaux Publics – Líder
Bilfinger Berger
VINCI Construction Grands Projets
Construcoes e Comercio Camargo Correa S.A.
Construtora Andrade Gutierrez S.A.
Construtora Queiroz Galvao S.A.
ALSTOM Hydro Energia Brasil
Atlántico-Pacífico de Panamá
BARDELLA Ind. Mecánicas
AECOM – Líder ALSTOM HydroEnergia Brasil
Bechtel, Taisei, Mitsubishi Corporation
Bechtel Internacional, Inc. – Líder
Bechtel Internacional, Inc. –Líder Wuchang Shipyard Taisei Corporation
Mitsubishi Corporation
Grupo Unidos por el Canal
Sacyr Vallehermoso S.A. – Líder Montgomery Watson Harza(MWH) – Líder
Heerema Fabrication GroupImpregilo S.p.A. IV-Groep
Jan de Nul n.v. Tetra Tech
Constructora Urbana, S.A.
Prequalified ConsortiaPrequalified Consortia
Expansion Program Financing StructureExpansion Program Financing Structure
Multilateral Agencies Amount
European Investment Bank (EIB) $ 500 million
Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC)
$ 800 million
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) $ 400 million
International Finance Corporation (IFC) $ 300 million
Corporación Andina de Fomento(CAF)
$ 300 million
Terms and Conditions of the ProposalTerms and Conditions of the Proposal
EIB EIB JBIC JBIC IADBIADB IFCIFC CAFCAF
Commercial Commercial Banks with Banks with
NEXI NEXI guaranteeguarantee
Amount up Amount up toto (millions) (millions) $500 $500 $800 $800 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400
Tenor /GraceTenor /Grace(years) (years) 20/1020/10 20/1020/10 20/1020/10 20/1020/10 20/1020/10 20/1020/10
Fees rangeFees range5.55% 5.55% (Fixed)(Fixed)
L + 48 bpsL + 48 bps
L + L + 7575 bpsbps
L+ 120 L+ 120 bpsbps L+ 135 bpsL+ 135 bps L+ 140 L+ 140
bps (3)bps (3)
6.35% (Fixed)6.35% (Fixed)L+ (120 + 42) L+ (120 + 42)
bpsbps
Commitment FeeCommitment Fee Not Not ApplicableApplicable 0.25%0.25% 0.25%0.25% 0.25%0.25% 0.25%0.25% 0.40%0.40%
Initial Initial CommissionCommission
Not Not ApplicableApplicable 0.50%0.50% 0.50%0.50% 0.50%0.50% 0.50%0.50% 0.85%0.85%
Agency Agency CommissionCommission 0.02%0.02%
As ofAs of October 8, 2008 October 8, 2008 -- Libor 6M = Libor 6M = 4.1075%4.1075%
EXPANSION PROGRAM´S PROGRESS COMUNICATIONEXPANSION PROGRAM´S PROGRESS COMUNICATION
19
• Canal Performance Indicators
• Canal Expansion Program
• Impact and Repercussions of The New Locks
•In Panama
•Trade Patterns
• Canal Performance Indicators
• Canal Expansion Program
• Impact and Repercussions of The New Locks
•In Panama
•Trade Patterns
21
294.1 m (965’)294.1 m (965’)
33.5 m (110’)33.5 m (110’)
32.3 m (106’)32.3 m (106’)
294.1 m (965’)
294.1 m (965’)
366 m (1,200’)366 m (1,200’)
55 m (180’)55 m (180’)
49 m (160’)49 m (160’)
427 m (1,400’)
427 m (1,400’)
12.8 m (42’)
18.3 m (60’)
21
12.4 m(39.5’)12.4 m(39.5’)
15.2 m(50’)
15.2 m(50’)
Existing Locks –Maximum Vessel:Existing Locks –Maximum Vessel:4,400 TEUs4,400 TEUs
New Locks –Maximum Vessel:New Locks –Maximum Vessel: 12,600 TEUs12,600 TEUs
New LocksNew Locks
Existing Locks
Existing Locks
Dimensions of the Locks and Post-Panamax ShipsDimensions of the Locks and Post-Panamax Ships
22
U.S. Port Working DepthsU.S. Port Working Depths
U.S. East Coast MLW
Boston 38’
New York / New Jersey 43’
Philadelphia 38’
Baltimore 40’
Norfolk 48’
Wilmington 42’
Charleston 47’
Savannah 42’
Jacksonville 38’
Miami 39’
35’New Orleans
40’Houston
MLWU.S. Gulf
U.S. West Coast MLW
Los Angeles / Long Beach 50’
Oakland 50’
Portland 35’
Seattle / Tacoma 50’
Depths at Mean Low Water (MLW)
Tampa 43’
23
NS’ Intermodal Network
Norfolk Southern System
Intermodal Terminal
Market Expansions thru 2011
New Facilities/Markets
IM Port Terminal
TCS Terminals
24
NS Is Currently Engaged in Over $3 billion in Network improvements Targeting IntermodalNS Is Currently Engaged in Over $3 billion in Network improvements Targeting Intermodal
• Meridian Speedway: $300mm– Complete 2010
• Heartland Corridor: $250mm– Complete 2010
• Patriot Corridor: $140mm– Complete 2010*
• Crescent Corridor: $2.4bb– Completion tbd
• Meridian Speedway: $300mm– Complete 2010
• Heartland Corridor: $250mm– Complete 2010
• Patriot Corridor: $140mm– Complete 2010*
• Crescent Corridor: $2.4bb– Completion tbd
*Still under review by STB
25
Norfolk Southern System
NS Intermodal Routes
Clearance Restrictions
NS’ Core Intermodal Network4 Corridor Strategy
26
Dry Bulk Carriers Additional Cargo Capacity in the Expanded Panama Canal
Dry Bulk Carriers Additional Cargo Capacity in the Expanded Panama Canal
Existing Canal
Vessel data:
Cargo carrying Capacity ( tons) 80,238 100,000 -119,000
120,000 –150,000
151,000 –169,000
170,000 –200,000
Utilization rate via the Panama Canal 78% 98% 78% 76% 74%
Cargo (Metric Tons) 62,430 107,310 105,300 121,600 136,900Length (meters) 272.5 260.5 273 289 292Beam (meters) 32.3 43.9 43 43.1 48Salt Water Draft (meters) 14.1 13.8 17.5 17.4 18
Length (meters) 294.1 365.8 365.8 365.8 365.8Beam (meters) 32.3 48.8 48.8 48.8 48.8Tropical Fresh Water Draft (meters) 12 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Utilization rate via the Panama Canal without restrictions 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Cargo without restrictions (Metric Tons) 80,238 107,310 132,300 156,800 181,300
Expanded Canal
Typical Panamaxvessel
Maximum size
ConceptSize Range for Dry Bulkers carrying Coal in the expanded canal
Panama Canal Restrictions:
27
Tankers Additional Cargo Capacity in the Expanded Panama Canal
Tankers Additional Cargo Capacity in the Expanded Panama Canal
Existing CanalTanker Vessel with Maximum
DimensionsVessel Data Aframax Suezmax VLCCTotal Cargo Capacity of vessel 88,170 100 - 119,999 120 - 199,999 > 200,000Utilization percentage of vessel through the Canal 70.0% 94.7% 89.6% 73.9%
Cargo in metric tons 64,257 107,520 146,316 226,205 LOA (m) 272.5 269 267 326Beam (m) 32.2 39.3 46.3 49Fresh water draft (m) 15.5 16.0 17.02 20.64Dimensions allowed by the Panama CanalLOA (m) 294.2 366 366 366Beam (m) 32.2 49 49 49Fresh water draft (m) 12 15.2 15.2 15.2Unrestricted vessel utilization percentage 100% 100% 100% 100%
Cargo carrying capacity with maximum draft of 15.2 m 88,170 101,818 131,107 167,064
Additional cargo allowed with expanded Canal (in MT) 23,913
Expanded CanalSize Range for Tanker Vessels in
Expanded Canal
28
CO2 Footprints per TEU: Container Route Shanghai - New York
CO2 Footprints per TEU: Container Route Shanghai - New York
2.62 2.64
4.07
2.863.02
2.182.38
3.37
2.86
2.51
1.92
2.23
2.98
2.53
2.21
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
Panama Canal Landbridge Cape Horn Cape of Good Hope Suez Canal
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
PanamaxPost-Panamax 8000 TEU
Post-Panamax 8700 TEU
29
CO2 Footprints per MT: Tanker Route Esmeraldas, Ecuador – Houston, U.S.
CO2 Footprints per MT: Tanker Route Esmeraldas, Ecuador – Houston, U.S.
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
Panama Canal Cape Horn Cape ofGood Hope
Suez Canal
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
in M
T
PanamaxAframaxSuezmax
30
International Ports Connected through the Panama Canal every Week
International Ports Connected through the Panama Canal every Week
Source: ACP and ComPairData, 2007Source: ACP and ComPairData, 2007
SavannahSavannahYantianYantian
KwangyangKwangyang
Hong KongHong Kong
PusanPusan
SavannahSavannahKeelungKeelung
WilmingtonWilmingtonPusanPusan
NJ/NYNJ/NY
RotterdamRotterdam
Le HavreLe Havre
HalifaxHalifax
FelixstoweFelixstowe
Long BeachLong BeachLos AngelesLos Angeles
BremerhavenBremerhaven RotterdamRotterdam
KaohsiungKaohsiung
CharlestonCharleston
NagoyaNagoya ThamesportThamesport
OaklandOakland
SeattleSeattle
TokyoTokyo
ColomboColombo
ShanghaiShanghai
YokohamaYokohama
Newport NewsNewport News
HakataHakata Manzanillo (Mx)Manzanillo (Mx)
RotterdamRotterdam
KobeKobe
OsakaOsaka HamburgHamburg
ShimizuShimizu Port SaidPort Said
ZeebruggeZeebrugge
ChabangChabang
TahitiTahiti
AucklandAuckland
DoniamboDoniambo
BrisbaneBrisbaneSydneySydney
MelbourneMelbourne
Tanjung PriokTanjung Priok
SingaporeSingapore
MarseillesMarseilles
La SpeziaLa Spezia
TilburyTilbury
DunkerqueDunkerque
QingdaoQingdao
BuenaventuraBuenaventuraGuayaquilGuayaquil
CallaoCallaoAricaArica
CoquimboCoquimbo
San AntonioSan AntonioSan VicenteSan Vicente
Puerto LimónPuerto Limón
IquiqueIquique
MantaManta
AntofagastaAntofagastaValparaísoValparaíso
..
BalboaBalboa
AntwerpAntwerp
ItajaiItajai
SavannahSavannahBaltimoreBaltimore
New OrleansNew Orleans
ParanaguaParanaguaSantosSantos
Puerto CabelloPuerto Cabello
VeracruzVeracruz ManzanilloManzanilloColon Colon
CartagenaCartagenaLa GuairaLa Guaira
GuantaGuantaMaracaiboMaracaibo
EvergladesEverglades
KingstonKingston
MiamiMiami
Transit the CanalFeeder services that don´t transit the Canal
BostonBoston
31
Port Development in Panama
Port Development in Panama
Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT)
Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT)
Colon Container TerminalColon Container Terminal
Panama Ports Company - BalboaPanama Ports Company - Balboa
Panama PortsCompany –Cristobal
Panama PortsCompany –Cristobal
32
1996: 235 Thousands TEUs2008(e): 4.7 Millions TEUs1996: 235 Thousands TEUs2008(e): 4.7 Millions TEUs
Source: Panama Maritime Authority (AMP).
33
Panamax Cranes PPX TotalPPC-Balboa 8 10 18PPC-CRI 3 3 6CCT 4 6 10MIT 2 14 16
17 33 50
34
Inventory of gantry cranes (Ship-to-Shore gantry cranes) in Latin America and the Caribbean
33 - Mexico
1 – Costa Rica
2 - Guatemala
1 - Nicaragua2 - Honduras
Source: Containerization International Yearbook 2008
17 - Jamaica7 – Dominican Rep.
6 – Puerto Rico10 - Bahamas
4 - Cuba
4 –Trinidad & Tobbago
3 - Guadeloupe
18 - Argentina
31 - Brazil8 - Chile
4 - Colombia
2 - Uruguay
1 - Ecuador
5 – French Antilles
1 - Haiti1 - Aruba
50 – Panama (21%)
187 – LA & the Caribbean
237 – Total
35
Forecast2010: 6.6 millions TEUs2015: 8.4 millions TEUs
Forecast2010: 6.6 millions TEUs2015: 8.4 millions TEUs
Source: Panama Maritime Authority (AMP).
36
PSA Panama International Terminal• ½ million TEUs capacity
• USD$ 70 million investment
• 20 yr concession agreement
37
NEW PORT FACILITY:
FARFAN LOCATION?
NEW PORT FACILITY:
FARFAN LOCATION?
Population Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2007
Map of insufficiencies in transportation and logistics in Latin America and the Caribbean
Sources: R. J. Sánchez , G. Wilmsmeier, CEPAL, DRNI, ACPSources: R. J. Sánchez , G. Wilmsmeier, CEPAL, DRNI, ACP
This is a graphic approximationThis is a graphic approximation
• Demand dispersion• Insufficiency in cargo requirements in
density and frequency• Deficient transportation infrastructure• Investments difficult to justify• Topographical problems• Congestion or shortage at borders• Population dispersion• Shipping services restrictions• Waterway insufficiencies• Deficiencies in connectivity among
production and consumption centers
• Demand dispersion• Insufficiency in cargo requirements in
density and frequency• Deficient transportation infrastructure• Investments difficult to justify• Topographical problems• Congestion or shortage at borders• Population dispersion• Shipping services restrictions• Waterway insufficiencies• Deficiencies in connectivity among
production and consumption centers
Short Sea Shipping NetworkShort Sea Shipping Network
POST-PANAMAX MOVEMENT
CO
NN
ECTI
NG
PO
RTS
CO
NN
ECTI
NG
PO
RTS
MANZANILLOLAZARO CARDENAS
ACAPULCOSALINACRUZ
SAN JOSEPUERTO QUETZAL
ACAJUTLALA LIBERTAD
CORINTOPUERTO SANDINO
PUNTARENASCALDERAGOLFITO
PUERTO ARMUELLESBALBOA
BUENAVENTURATUMACO
ESMERALDASGUAYAQUIL
PAITACALLAO
ANTOFAGASTAVENTANAS
VALPARAISOSAN ANTONIOTALCAHUANO
TAMPICOVERACRUZCOATZACUALCOSBELICE CITYPUERTO CORTESPUERTO CASTILLAPUERTO CABEZASEL BLUFFPUERTO LIMONCHIRIQUI BRANDECRISTOBAL-MIT-EVERGREENCARTAGENABARRANQUILLAPUERTO BOLIVARPUERTO CABELLOLA GUAIRASUAP / PCEMRECIFEVITORIA TUBARAURIO DE JANEIROSEPETIBASANTOSPARANAGUAMONTEVIDEOBUENOS AIRESBAHIA BLANCA
Panama key indicators
Indicator 2006 2007 2008e 2009f 2010fReal GDP(% change, annual rate) 8.5 11.5 9.3 5.2 7.5Inflation rate(% change, annual rate) 2.5 4.2 8.7 4.0 2.5Unemployment rate(As % of Economically active population) 7.1 4.9 4.2 4.0 4.0Fiscal surplus (or deficit)(Non Financial Public Sector as % of GDP) 0.5 3.5 1.3 3.8 4.1Total public debt(As % of GDP) 61.0 53.7 45.5 42.1 38.4
Source: ACP with data of Indesa.
The Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) had a fiscal surplus in 2006 and 2007. In the following years, the NFPS surplus is expected to be between 1.3% and 4.1 %, which will reduce the public debt as percentage of GDP.
Fiscal Surplus(As pecentage of GDP)
0.5
3.5
1.3
3.8 4.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2006 2007 2008e 2009f 2010f
% o
f GD
P
Public Debt(As perentage of GDP)
61.053.7
45.5 42.1 38.4
010203040506070
2006 2007 2008e 2009f 2010f
% o
f GD
P
Source: ACP with data of Indesa.Source: ACP with data of Indesa.
Transport and logistics cluster indicatorsTransport and logistics cluster indicators
Indicator
Canal
Revenues
(% change, annual rate)
Trans-shipment ports
TEU's
(% change, annual rate)
Railway
TEU's
(% change, annual rate)
Colon Free Trade Zone
Re-exports (Thousands of dollars)
(% change, annual rate)
Passenger air hub
Tourist and transiting passenger
(% change, annual rate)
International air cargo
Air cargo
(% change, annual rate)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
774.5 829.3 953.5 1,086.3 1,262.5 1,588.1 1,786.2-1.4% 7.1% 15.0% 13.9% 16.2% 25.8% 12.5%
1,591,472 1,672,315 1,991,659 2,428,836 2,774,579 3,029,872 4,074,17817.1% 5.1% 19.1% 22.0% 14.2% 9.2% 34.5%
3,709 28,240 41,550 60,354 142,920 168,229 303,003661.5% 47.1% 45.3% 136.8% 17.7% 80.1%
5,410.1 4,837.1 4,566.9 5,469.8 6,664.3 7,666.1 8,523.31.7% -10.6% -5.6% 19.8% 21.8% 15.0% 11.2%
2,103,861 1,938,933 2,077,657 2,364,756 2,710,857 3,164,582 3,764,8548.8% -7.8% 7.2% 13.8% 14.6% 16.7% 19.0%
74,370 84,361 83,488 92,847 100,063 79,648 93,6331.1% 13.4% -1.0% 11.2% 7.8% -20.4% 17.6%
Source: ACP with data of Contraloría General de la República and Dirección Nacional de Aeronáutica Civil.
Panama Transport & Logistic ClusterPanama Transport & Logistic Cluster
CANALINTEROCEANIC
TRANSIT
ACP
LOGISTICS
WATERSHED
HYDROGRAPHY
TOURISM
BUNKERING
TRAINING
UNIONS
SHIPPINGAGENCIES
RELATED AND COMPLEMENTARY SERVICES
DATABASE
SPECIAL REGULATORYZONES
PUBLICSERVICESAIRPORTS
OVERLAND TRANSPORTATION
FINANCIAL SERVICES
WAREHOUSINGSERVICES
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
MARITIME CHAMBER
PILOTS
INSPECTION
FLOATING CRANES
INDUSTRIALSERVICES
TUGBOATS AND LAUNCHES
INSURANCEBANKING
BOARD OF INSPECTORS
ENERGY
WATER
REFRIGERATION
LABOR UNIONS
DREDGING
TRAFFIC CONTROL
Canal Museum
SPORTSFISHING
TourismInstallations
TOUR GUIDES
TRADE
URBAN TRANSPORTATION
HOTELS
RESTAURANTS
UNIVERSITIES
Maritime Training and Development
PORTS
SCHOOLS
COMMUNICATIONSERVICESLAWYERS
OPTIC FIBER
SHIPFITTERS
INTERNATIONALUNIONS
RAILROAD
SHIP MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR
Source: ACP with information of the Panama Canal Impact.
Transport and Logistics Cluster InvestmentTransport and Logistics Cluster Investment
Source: ACP with information of Capital Financiero, La Prensa and Panama Commerce Chamber.
ProjectUS$
(Millions) Start date End date
Cluster: TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS 9,762Canal expansion 5,250 2007 2014
Trans-shipment Ports and railway 2,391Panama Port Company terminal (Balboa and Cristobal) 1,000 2008 2010Manzanillo International Terminal 211 2008 2010Colon Container Terminal 450Rodman container terminal (Singapur -PSA Internacional) 100Farfán Container Terminal (Palo Seco) 600Panama Canal Railway Company 30 2008 2008
Cruiseship terminal 18Colón 2000 cruiseship terminal ( Home Port) 14Farfan terminal for ship chandlering and others services 4 2009 2010
Panama-Pacific Economic Area (Howard) 477Howard Development Master Plan 405 2008 2016Caterpillar and Hewlett Packard regional distribution and logistic center 72
Bunker terminal-Colon Oil and Services, S.A. (COASSA) 22
Passenger and cargo air hub 652COPA passenger and cargo air hub 582 2007 2008Tocumen air port 70 2009 2010
Colon Free Trade Zone (Infrastructure, warehousing, etc.) 200 2009
Pipeline expansion (Pumping Capability: Atlantic to Pacific ) 150
Other projects in Canal area 770Real estate in Canal area 700Gehry Museum 70
Economic Impact of the Panama Canal ExpansionEconomic Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion
Unemployment RatePercentages
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Years
Without ExpansionWith Expansion
InvestmentIn Millions of Dollars at 2006 prices
2,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Years
Without Expansion
With Expansion
Gross Domestic ProductIn Millions of Dollars at 2006 prices
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Years
Without ExpansionWith Expansion
Cluster Exports In Millions of Dollars at 2006 prices
4,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Years
Without ExpansionWith Expansion
Source: ACP.
Main Logistics Hubs Main Logistics Hubs
SINGAPORESINGAPORE
HONG KONGHONG KONG
SHANGHAISHANGHAI BUSANBUSAN
ROTTERDAMROTTERDAM
HAMBURGHAMBURG
DUBAIDUBAI
LA/LBLA/LBNY/NJNY/NJ
SHENZHENSHENZHEN
HAMPTON RDS.
HAMPTON RDS.
SAVANNAHSAVANNAH
FREEPORTFREEPORTKINGSTONKINGSTON
ALGECIRASALGECIRAS
PANAMAPANAMA
Thank You!Thank You!
Rodolfo SabongeVice president, Market Research and [email protected]