UNCLASSIFIED

SHORT FORM ANALYTIC REPORTAndy Analyst

Intelligence Analyst, US Africa Command - Djibouti

14 January 2013Djibouti

Source: http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-PT033_drones_G_20110920220004.jpg

DJIBOUTI UNLIKELY TO SUSPEND US DRONE FLIGHTS FROM CAMP LEMONNIER

Sources: Camp -- http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpgMap -- https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/dj.html

Executive Summary

No pressure from Djiboutian government

U.S. military presence helps Djibouti’s economy

Regional partners support drone operations UNCLASSIFIED

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A Predator drone crash site in Djibouti (May 2011)Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg

Estimate:Djibouti unlikely to suspend drone flights

Background

Camp Lemonnier provides local economic boost

USD38 million lease – 3% of GDP

USD1.4 billion base expansion

UNCLASSIFIED

3

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg

Camp Lemonnier - Djibouti

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg

Discussion

Five crashes: January 2011 – February 2012

No public pressure to suspend operations

Djiboutian government continues to support Camp Lemonnier

UNCLASSIFIED

4

Source: http://dronewarsuk.wordpress.com/drone-crash-database/

No pressure from Djiboutian government

Date Drone Type Cause

21 Feb 2012USAF MQ-1B Predator Mechanical failure

17 May 2011USAF MQ-1B Predator Undetermined

7 May 2011USAF MQ-1B Predator Undetermined

15 Mar 2011USAF MQ-1B Predator Undetermined

14 Jan 2011USAF MQ-1B Predator Undetermined

Drone Crashes in Djibouti

Discussion

Camp Lemonnier provides local economic boost

USD38 million lease – 3% of GDP

USD1.4 billion base expansion

UNCLASSIFIED

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Djibouti’s 2011 GDP was USD 1.1 billion. Source: Jane’s Information Group. (2012). North Africa Security Assessment. Jane’s Sentinel, 31.

U.S. Military Presence Helps Djibouti’s Economy

Discussion

Statements of support from: Yemen

Ongoing drone operations from: Ethiopia

Lessens pressure on Djiboutian government

UNCLASSIFIED

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Regional partners support drone operations

Source: http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BC588A_DRONE_D_20110920201505.jpg

Somalia

Seychelles

Comments

No civilian deaths in previous crashes

February 2012 crash was near residential area

Civilian deaths may lead Djibouti to request: Investigation Plan to address

crashes

UNCLASSIFIED

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Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg

Civilian deaths may increase pressure

Source: Guardian UK

Analytic Confidence

Analytic confidence = High

Source reliability = High (40.65)

Analyst’s Expertise = High

Subject Complexity = Medium

Time Available = AdequateUNCLASSIFIED

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Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Questions?

Andy Analyst

US Africa Command – Djibouti

Email: AAnalyst@mercyhurst.edu

Analyst Contact Information

UNCLASSIFIED

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Full report available by request.

References

http://dronewarsuk.wordpress.com/drone-crash-database/ http://djiboutitoday.com/m_news.php?ID=181 Jane’s Information Group. (2012). North Africa Security Assessment. Jane’s

Sentinel, 31. http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-10-25/world/35499227_1_drone-

wars-drone-operations-military-base http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-09-29/world/35497110_1_drone-s

trikes-drone-attacks-aqap http://allafrica.com/stories/201202270467.html http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-10-27/world/35276956_1_drone-fl

ights-drone-operations-reaper-drones

UNCLASSIFIED

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