Shorter, After War of Ind

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The Population of Turkey after the War of Independence Author(s): Frederic C. Shorter Source: International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 17, No. 4 (Nov., 1985), pp. 417-441Published by: Cambridge University PressStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/163412Accessed: 25-10-2015 16:44 UTC

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Int. J. Midcle East Stud. 17 (1985), 417-441 Printed in the United States of Anmerica

Frederic C. Shorter

THE POPULATION OF TURKEY AFTER

THE WAR OF INDEPENDENCE

The people of Turkey at the end of the War of Independence could hardly have imagined the long era of peace and national development that was to follow. They had just been through more than a decade of struggle to survive against the odds of warfare abroad and at home, epidemics, and serious interferences with the normal material means of livelihood. Loss of life and permanent disability were legacies for many families of the 1911-1922 period. Practically every com- munity was affected in some life-threatening way by the ambitions of outside powers and their local allies or by the last Ottoman campaigns (the Balkans, North Africa, Gallipoli, the Russian front, Mesopotamia, Palestine, and the Hejaz). Only the independence struggle itself finally resolved the issues of territo- riality, governance, and the right to reside in peace. The new Republic was founded in 1923.

CENSIUSES BEFORE AND AFTER INDEPENDENCE

The possibility of taking stock of the Republican Turkish population depended upon having a census. The Ottoman State maintained a continuous registration system. Its main uses were male conscription, taxation, and regulation or migration or settlement. Periodically, there was a special campaign to bring the registers up to date by census-like canvasses. The registers were then summarized from time to time in documents known as Ottoman censuses (Karpat 1978; Shaw 1978; Akarli 1970).

The Ottoman registers reflected their purposes by providing better counts of males than females. The 1895-96 Ottoman census, unlike most of the others, included a classification by broad age groups as well as by sex. Demographic analysis of this census demonstrates that even males were seriously undercounted below age 20, while the completeness of the count of females was hopeless (McCarthy 1978, pp. 22-28). Although useful information was extracted from the registers by the Ottoman summarization procedure, few cross-tabulations, the essence of a good census, were made.

When the Republic was founded, it kept the Ottoman registration system for limited purposes. Registration is the basis for the present-day population booklets (Niifus Ctizdani) that almost every Turk possesses. Birth, marriage, divorce, children, and death are recorded for both sexes in the registers. Summarization

? 1985 Cambridge University Press 0020-7438/85/000417-25 $2.50



418 Frederic C. Shorter

from these records has never been successful in producing complete national counts, which does not necessarily mean that the local records are inaccurate since summarization may be the faulty step. It does confirm, however, the wisdom of the Republic's early decision to institute a genuine census system.

In 1927 the first modern census was held under the direction of a Belgian statistician employed to make sure that the best-known methods were applied. The census was an independent defacto enumeration conducted house to house without linkage to the registration system. The 1927 census reports were among the first important social documents to appear after the founding of the Republic (Turkey Central Statistical Office (CSO) 1929).

Demographers have made less use of the 1927 census than the later series of five-yearly censuses that began in 1935. There were doubts about its quality, and checking was difficult. For example, details about the age structures were obscured in the final reports by grouping into unconventional age ranges. Age information is very useful for demographic assessment. The census questionnaire and the format of the reports were improved in 1935 and retained with few changes thereafter. Consequently, the census reports of 1935 and later provide exceptionally valuable information concerning the demographic and social history of Turkey.

Naturally enough, no census was taken after the War of Independence, but

suppose one had been. It would have provided a benchmark with which to evaluate the condition of the population at the beginning of the Republican period. In order to interpret social trends and policies of the early Republican period, it would be most helpful to know what demographic realities constrained alternatives and affected perceptions. To take a 1923 census now would be

impossible, but to construct an approximate 1923 "census" from information in the censuses that were taken later is actually in the realm of possibility. The

population by age and sex and its approximate size in 1923 can be at the very least estimated. Details of marital status, educational attainment, occupation, and so on are not so easily reconstructed.

The possibility of performing this analytic feat lies in the fact that, except for those who died in the interim, everyone who would have been enumerated in 1923 was enumerated again in 1927, 1935, and later censuses. The balance of

migration in and out of the population blurs the picture, but this can be considered a minor factor as will be explained when the population exchanges at the birth of the Republic are discussed. Another way to indicate the possibility of

taking a 1923 "census" is to note that the census of 1935 (a census that passes tests of reasonable quality) consists entirely of "1923 population" plus persons who were born after 1923 and were, therefore, under the age of 12 in 1935. The 1935 census describes the 1923 population by age and sex by making only two adjustments: it deducts 12 years from everyone's age who is 12 or over and "adds back" population by age and sex of persons who died between 1923 and 1935. Adding the dead back into the population is not so difficult if some idea of the level (or general rate) of mortality is known or can be reasonably assumed. The distribution of the deaths by age and sex follows patterns that are well established



The Population of Turkey After the War of Independence 419

in general historical studies from which families of model life tables have been created (Coale and Demeny 1966).

The general technique for adding back the deaths is known by demographers as "reverse survival." When applied to a whole population, it is termed "reverse population projection." So as not to clutter this presentation with technical details, an explanation of reverse population projection is given in the appendix. A short glossary of demographic terms is also appended.

ESTIMATING A 1923 "CENSUS" BY REVERSE POPULATION PROJECTION

The basis for estimating the 1923 population is as follows. 1. The 1935 census is preferred over the 1927 census as a basis because it is

reported in a standard demographic format (e.g., 5-year age groups) and has passed the scrutiny of demographers as being a reasonably sound census. There have been questions about the 1927 census (e.g., undercounting) which are easier not to tackle directly. The major fault of the 1935 census and all successive Turkish censuses is that their age distributions are no better than the information on age supplied by the respondents themselves to the census enumerators. Patterns of age misreporting have been detected and found to be systematic in the whole series of censuses from 1935 to the present (Demeny and Shorter 1968; Das Gupta 1975; Ntozi 1978). Fortunately the repetitive character of these errors makes it possible to correct the censuses for age misreporting. This was done to the 1935 census (Shorter and Macura 1982, pp. 122-23), and the corrected result is used for the reverse projection.

2. The general rate of mortality between 1923 and 1935 was not recorded at the time, so it is necessary to extrapolate backwards in time from trends observed later, and to use some judgment. Rather than make a single assumption about the mortality rate in 1923, one may consider two alternatives in exploring the census range. First, it is helpful to note the trend of mortality in Turkey after 1935 because that is the information from which a "backwards" extrapolation would be made (Shorter and Macura 1982, p. 95).

Life Expectancy for Period Both Sexes Combined (Years)

1935-40 35.4 1940-45 31.4 1945-50 38.1 1950-55 43.6 1955-60 48.1 1960-65 52.1 1965-70 55.6 1970-75 58.9

The first mortality assumption supposes that a life expectancy of 35 years prevailed from 1923 to 1935. The assumption of low mortality rates (relative to




TABLE 1 Estimated population of 1923: Low and high alternativesa

Population Percentage of total

Sex and age groups Low High Low High

Females 0-14 2,201 2,232 32 32

15-44 3,169 3,209 47 46 45-64 1,063 1,096 15 15 65 and over 367 415 5 6

Total 6,801 6,952 100 100

Males 0-14 2,233 2,260 36 36

15-44 2,804 2,834 46 45 45-64 808 829 13 13 65 and over 321 343 5 6

Total 6,166 6,267 100 100

Both sexes Total 12,967 13,219

Both sexes Sex ratios of males to females (per 100)

Low High 0-14 101 101

15-44 88 88 45-64 76 76 65 and over 87 83

Total 91 90

Note: Some columns do not add to the totals due to rounding. a Figures in thousands.

the second assumption made below) produces by reverse projection the lower of

the two alternative estimates of the 1923 population. (When death rates are

accepted as low, fewer people die between the first (1923) and second (1935) dates, so calculating backwards from 1935, fewer dead people are added back into the population to reach the 1923 estimate.)

The second mortality assumption supposes a trend of rising life expectancy from 1923 to 1935, starting at 30 years and reaching the measured life expectancy of 35 years after 1935. Specifically, 30 years is assumed prior to 1925, 32 years from 1925 to 1930, and 34 years from 1930 to 1935. The assumption of high

mortality rates produces the higher of the two estimates for the 1923 population. In the projections, males and females are assigned the same life expectancy at

birth to reflect the finding in other studies that females generally did not have better survival chances than males during the earliest years for which measurement is possible. Since the 1940s, better female chances emerged with the declin-

ing mortality trend (Demeny and Shorter 1968, p. 15; Shorter and Macura

1982, pp. 63, 89, 92, 95). 3. The remaining details are entirely technical and may be consulted in the

appendix. The exact structure of population in the uppermost age groups-above



The Population of Turkei After the War of Indepnd dence 421

TABLE 2 Census of 1927 compared to reverse projections of population for the same year"

Relative undercount Projections (percentage)

1927 Sex Census Low High Low High

Males 6,564 6,607 6,658 0.7 1.4 Females 7,084 7,160 7,233 1.1 2.1 Both sexes 13,648 13,768 13,891 0.9 1.8

Ratio of males to females (per 100) 92.7 92.3 92.1

a Figures in thousands.

age 68 in 1923-was allowed to follow that of a stationary population because solid information to the contrary was unavailable. Some error for above age 68 is therefore present in the 1923 estimates, but it has little practical effect on the overall population total and various demographic rates obtained for 1923.

When the estimated census of 1923 (see Table 1) is examined, the first point to note is that it makes little difference whether "high" or "low" mortality rates are assumed for the reverse projection. The estimates simply are not very sensitive to error in that assumption. The reason is that 12 years is not a very long period in the dynamics of population change, so that most of the people alive in 1923 were found by the 1935 census.

As a further check on the 1923 results, censuses that followed 1935 were also

reverse-projected to 1923. This was done to determine whether reliance on 1935 was a poor choice. The estimates that are made by using later censuses turn out to be very similar. For example, reverse projection from the 1940 census produces practically no differences in population structure and a change in the estimate of

population size of only 1%.

REEVALUATION OF THE 1927 CENSUS

Since the 1927 census is placed in time between 1935 and 1923, the reverse

projections also provide a comment on the 1927 census. This is not the main

purpose of this paper but allows some points to be cleared up. The reverse-

projected population for 1927 is compared in Table 2 with the actual census. Before the 1927 census was held, there was considerable confusion about the

likely size of the Turkish population. Yuceulug (1944, p. 38) mentions reports of the French and British foreign offices that gave the population in 1924 as

approximately 8 or 9 million. After the census in 1927 counted 13.6 million

persons, there were doubts about the accuracy of the census. Not all of the critics

suspected overenumeration, but rather some suspected underenumeration, the more common defect in censuses. Newspapers in Istanbul published reports of whole sections of the city being missed. After the 1935 and 1940 censuses were




TABLE 3 Various results of the reverse projection: high alternative

1930-35 1927a 1923a

Crude birth rate (per thousand population) 54 53 45 Total fertility rate (children per couple) 7.1 6.6 5.6 Crude death rate (per thousand population) 34 36 36

Expectation of life at birth (years)h 34 32 30 Rate of natural increase (percent) 2.0 1.7 0.9

a Interpolations to correspond with October of each year shown. bThis was an assumption to make the reverse projection. Note: The low alternative projection differs chiefly by giving somewhat lower estimates of fertility at the earlier dates, and higher yearly rates of population increase. The total fertility rate in the low

projection is 5.2 in 1923, rising to 7.0 for 1930 to 1935. The death rate is also lower, because the

expectation of life is held constant at 35 years in the low alternative. The crude death rate is 30 per thousand in 1923, rising to 33 per thousand for 1930 to 1935.

taken, it became more plausible to accept the 1927 census. The eminent economic historian and demographer Omer Celal Sara estimated that the 1927 census was an undercount of 370,000 persons, giving a total size very close to 14 million persons (Sarc 1940, 1942). As a total count relative to later censuses, the 1927 census apparently was not such a poor census after all.

HIGH GROWTH RATES BEFORE WORLD WAR II: TRUE OR FALSE'?

Two successive censuses are a reasonable basis for estimating the growth rate of a population, provided the extent of coverage does not change between the two censuses. A simple comparison of 1927 and 1935 without adjustment gives an average growth rate during the 8 years of 2.1% per annum. After adjusting the 1927 census and allowing for a small amount of international migration, Sary estimated 1.6%. The reverse projection indicates a somewhat higher rate, reaching 2.0% by the end of the period (see Table 3). From today's perspective of theories about demographic change in developing countries, all of these estimates must seem high. Turkey had not entered the "demographic transition" of reduced death rates with high fertility inherited from a long stable past. Mortality rates did not decline substantially until after World War II, so how could Turkey possibly have had high population growth rates unless the data themselves were in error?

In pre-war Turkey, let it be said, this question was not asked. The general perception of Turks was that population was deficient, and commentators all welcomed the apparent high growth rate. The model of "demographic transition" had not yet been announced or become the expected format of demographic change in developing countries (Notestein 1945).

To explain the high growth rates, the structure of the population's age and sex must be noted. It was in no sense normal. Many years had to pass after 1923 for persons to be born, to grow up, and for some kind of balance in the population to be reattained. In 1923, and for several decades thereafter, the Turkish population was short of males, but children were conceived and born nevertheless. The




reverse projection in Table 3 shows a rising fertility trend from 1923 to 1935. Extraordinarily high crude birth rates were reached, and hence high growth rates in the population were also reached. The crude birth rate (CBR) is equal to yearly births divided by the total size of the population. The denominator was deficient in the category that does not bear children (males), and this is why the CBR became so high. Turkey had high growth rates before World War II because of the unusual composition of the population by age and sex, not because of any demographic transition.

SCARS AND IMBALANCES IN THE 1923 POPULATION

The special problems of Turkey's population trace back to the tumultuous period ending with the War of Independence. The years 1911 to 1922 saw many Turks die in military action (during the Italian war, Balkan wars, World War I and the Independence War itself, and many other persons also suffered to the point of death from civil disorders and very poor living conditions. There is no certain way to construct estimates of the Turkish population that would have been counted in 1923 if none of the excess mortality had occurred. A way to make a rough approximation comes to mind nevertheless.

Populations acquire a unique age structure due to their history of fertility and mortality. When fertility and mortality levels (age-specific fertility and mortality schedules) persist unchanged for a long period of time, the population structure becomes what demographers term a "stable population." The population pyramid has a fixed proportionate distribution of persons of each sex in each age group. Its total size reflects past history; it is not constant but changes over time at a constant rate. If this pyramid were known for Turkey in 1923, it would provide a standard against which to compare the actual population.

The age structure of 1923 is depleted at most ages by mortality rates that were excessive in the immediate past. To give meaning to the term excess mortality, any deaths in excess of those for a life table expectation of life at birth of 30 years may be considered to be excess deaths. These excess deaths are the reason that the actual population pyramid in 1923 is depleted in an uneven manner compared to a stable population pyramid that would be uniquely created by a life expectancy of 30 years and a stable past fertility level. The "normal" fertility level can be assumed to be the fertility level of 1923. Averaging the high and low estimates in Table 3 and its footnote gives a total fertility rate of 5.4 children. The past fertility level, just as the past mortality level, is assumed arbitrary for the stable population but provides reasonable standards of "normal" against which to evaluate the effects of excess mortality.

International migration alters the stable pyramid marginally if it is sex or age selective. Since the Turkish population exchanges were whole families (see below), not special groups such as workers, this factor does not need special consideration when setting up the 1923 standard.

First, the stable population pyramid is calculated in terms of the proportion of population in each age group (Coale and Demeny 1968). Then, the pyramid is sized. In this instance it is calculated to agree with the actual size of the 15-19




AGE

FEMALE MALE 75+ -I

70-74

65-69 I ACTUAL 60-64 I STABLE

55-59 LOI -DIFFERENCE 50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 THOUSANDS

FIGURE 1. Actual and stable population structures for Turkey in 1923

age group. This group is selected because, of all the age groups, it was probably least affected in numbers by the years of turmoil preceeding 1923. Excess infant mortality did not affect this cohort because the individuals were already old enough. Risks of death in children are low once they are past the first three or four years of life, even in the face of unusual nutritional and disease hazards. These youngsters in the cohort 15-19 of 1923 were at the same time too young to be drawn in significant numbers into military action. Some excess mortality of a civilian nature no doubt affected them, but of all the 5-year cohorts alive in 1923 this one can be accepted as the least scarred. Older cohorts, particularly males, were exposed to the excess mortality of military action. Younger cohorts of both sexes had to survive intensified risks of nutritional deficiency and exposure to infectious diseases in early childhood.

The stable population is compared with the reverse-projected actual population of 1923 in Figure 1. A minor inconsistency occurs at the highest ages where "actual" exceeds "stable." This is due to technical factors in the stable and the reverse projection, particularly the stationarity assumption that was made earlier (assumption number 3) for the reverse projection. The main elements of the comparison are valid measures of the scars found in the 1923 population.

Considerable confidence can be placed in the estimate of the structure of population losses by age and sex that these two pyramids show. Differences in judgment about the parameters for the stable population would not be likely to eliminate the basic pattern of scars on the population that is shown by Figure 1. Most striking is the deficiency of persons in the working ages, particularly males. Both the sexual imbalance and the general shortage would take many decades to disappear as these people aged and younger ones grew up to take their places. There is also a notable deficiency of very young children. Excess infant and early childhood mortality was no doubt the main cause, but a temporary period of




reduced childbearing (below the standard of 5.4 children for the stable population) also could have been responsible. The effect of both causes was to make demographic recovery after independence even slower. New generations not yet born would be needed.

POPItLATION SIZE AND PRE-REPUBLICAN LOSSES

Comparison of the two pyramids also throws some light on population losses during the late Ottoman period that were caused by excess mortality or tem- porarily depressed fertility. It is necessary to define carefully the population stock whose losses are measured by the difference between the two pyramids. Strictly speaking, reverse projection from the 1935 census to 1923 reconstructs the size and composition in 1923 of the Republican population stock that was living in Turkey in 1935. The 1923 population consists of either the very same individuals, or forebearers and compatriots who died after 1923 but before 1935. The estimate for 1923 does not include population stock that left Turkey.

The population exchange with Greece, formalized in the Treaty of Lausanne of 1923, involved not less than one million Greeks (Pentzopoulos 1962, pp. 96-100) and 400,000 Turks (Turkey CSO 1930, pp. 99-101; Barkan 1949, p. 206). The exchange was completed quickly, the Greek migration commencing immediately after the defeat of the Greek armies in 1922 and before the treaty was negotiated. The reverse-projection estimate of the population in October 1923 does not include any of the Greek population that left Turkey. It includes all the Turks who came into the Republic under the exchange, arriving over a period of several years. It also includes the substantial Greek population that chose to remain in Istanbul (120,000 in the 1927 census).

The concept of a Republican stock is ideal for a discussion of the impact on Republican Turkey of the special demographic conditions of 1923, because this is the population that constituted Republican Turkey. It is not exactly the same as the population living in the territory of Turkey in October 1923, for the reasons just explained, but it is very similar.

Subtracting the estimated population pyramid in 1923 from the stable pyramid shows that the population stock was short by about two million persons (15.36 - 13.22 = 2.14 million). This shortage can be interpreted as an estimate of excess mortality, possibly including some unrealized fertility, as well. Most likely the losses were concentrated in the decade before independence. The estimate is a minimum one because some additional losses could have occurred and been hidden from view by the absence of any survivors in the young age group (15-19) that was used here as a benchmark. It should be noted that this estimate does not depend upon having direct knowledge of the size of the same population stock at any time during the Ottoman period.

MAKING UP THE LOSSES

Numerical recovery after a major demographic disaster takes time, but demographic recovery is speeded if fertility substantially exceeds the level of births




required for replacement from generation to generation. Because of Turkey's high mortality rates of the 1920s and 1930s, women needed to bear on average nearly four children each to achieve population replacement. (At an expectation of life of 35 years, the required level of the total fertility rate is 3.9.) Since actual fertility was higher by a comfortable margin and rising, population growth was rapid. It took only 10 years (until 1933) for the shortage of two million persons to be made up.

However, the deficit was met by adding children to the population, not adults in the prime of their working lives. Males in the prime working ages, who were the shortest supply, were replenished by youth "aging" into their ranks. The shortage in 1923 of males aged 20-54 was approximately one million. It took until 1939 for this deficit to be overcome.

Sexual imbalance in the working ages persisted longer. Unbalanced cohorts had to "age out" of the working ages. About 30 years were needed to accomplish this completely. However, new cohorts with slightly more males than females, a sex ratio typical of unscarred populations, were growing into the working ages. Thus, it was possible for the proportion of males in the working ages overall to reach 50% as early as 1942. A normal balance with small excesses of males was reached by the 1950s.

SOME CONSEQUENCES OF THE SPECIAL DEMOGRAPHIC CONDITIONS

The influence of Turkey's special demographic conditions on its economic and social evolution through the 1920s and 1930s is considered next. The approach is to open the subject by exploring the impact on two types of social and economic change: agricultural production and women's participation in the economy. Change of both types is produced by multiple factors, one of which, it will be argued, was demographic. When there are multiple determinants, a paradigm is needed to select the principal determinants and place them in reasonable relation- ship to each other. For agricultural production, the possibility of offering a paradigm is strengthened by the existence of a valuable body of Turkish research on the subject. Concerning women's participation in the economy, knowledge is in a less settled state, but some suggestions leading toward an appropriate paradigm are offered nevertheless. Because demographic factors are part of the fabric of many types of social change, additional topics ought to be explored, but a beginning is made here.

Agricultural Production

The principal products of agriculture in the 1920s and 1930s were wheat and other cereals; next came animal products (wool, leather, and meat); and on a smaller scale, but commercially important, a variety of crops, including tobacco, raisins, and cotton. The pace of agriculture was set by wheat production, which is suited to Turkish growing conditions and was also urgently needed by Turkey's postwar economy. The technology of agriculture was traditional rain-fed cultivation using animals for draft power, human labor, and unimproved land.




Until after World War 11, there was no notable change in agricultural technology: neither mechanization nor the use of commercial inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, and high-yielding seed. There were many reasons for the delay in technological transformation until after World War 11, one of which was that traditional technology was sufficient to support a remarkably successful period of agricultural expansion from 1923 to World War II.

The success story begins with agriculture in ruins in 1923. Because the technology relied essentially only on labor and land, the revival of production did not wait upon new capital or the inputs of nonexistent commercial or industrial sectors. To be sure, even traditional methods require some capital: draft animals, wagons and carts, a few tools, and the opening of virgin fields by a first plowing and clearing. However, this form of capital accumulation could proceed com- fortably within the institution of agriculture and its pace of expansion. Within a few years after 1923, wheat production and export crop production (e.g., tobacco and raisins) were again functioning. This was confirmed by the agricultural census of 1927 (a busy year with three censuses, the third being the industrial census).

Weather is a cause of major year-to-year fluctuations in production of wheat because cereal production is critically dependent upon rainfall. Therefore, statistical assessment of the upward trend in agricultural production can lead to various estimates, depending upon how this factor is handled. The percentage of land area planted to wheat is much less affected by weather fluctuations, because the fields are planted before the next growing season's rainfall is known. The area planted in wheat increased from 1927 to 1940 at 4.1% per annum (fitted geometric curve using data assembled by Hirsch and Hirsch 1963, p. 376).

As cereal cultivation expanded extensively by bringing more land under the plow, there was a risk that production yields per hectare would fall. This does not seem to have happened, although the data on hectare yields are sparse and blurred by weather fluctuations, which make confirmation uncertain. Land of quality similar to that at the margin of current cultivation was plentiful, as indicated, for example, by the rarity of court cases dealing with agricultural land disputes. It was available at low prices or was free by allocation from village common and state lands, including agricultural lands released by the population exchanges (Keyder 1982, p. 38).

Sustained 4% growth in agricultural output is a major success for any agricultural economy. Growth of crops and agricultural products (e.g., animals) other than wheat may have increased at even faster rates. Thus, the estimate of 4% growth should be accepted as a minimum assessment of the trend until World War II.

The paradigm that accounts for the high growth rate has two parts: one describes an environment of market inducements and taxation that caused Turkish peasants to choose to devote their productive resources fully to agriculture; the other describes the growth of productive forces available to the

peasants and their commitment to production. Keyder (1982, pp. 23-69) provides a well-articulated account of the com-

mercial environment for agriculture during the 1920s. Two of his points will




characterize the texture. The Ottoman tithe of one-eighth of production, admin- istered by middlemen who took something in addition for themselves, was abolished in 1924. A relatively free market, with progressive commercialization, emerged. The national structure of taxes and prices neither transferred a surplus out of agriculture nor prevented price and cost incentives from reaching the producers themselves. The other point illustrating the environment is that transport infrastructure was improved (e.g., railway extensions). Transport pricing was also changed so that farm products could, for the first time, reach coastal markets at costs competitive with international imports. Major strides in transport continued to be made in the 1930s until World War II delayed further investment.

When the economic cataclysm of the 1930s struck Turkey, the terms of trade turned against agriculture (Boratav 1981). Ameliorative efforts by the government using price supports were of little avail (Silier 1981, pp. 56-81, 91). Peasants did not react by producing less, because alternatives for them were undeveloped. They suffered and strove even harder to produce with traditional techniques.

The productive forces of the peasants are the second "leg" of the paradigm. Unlimited supplies of free, or almost free, agricultural land without diminishing returns presented an extraordinary opportunity for farmers as long as it lasted (until the 1950s). The key constraint on agricultural production was labor. In 1923, the labor constraint was severe, but it relaxed over time, which is to say that this productive force increased steadily. Quantitatively, labor supply was linked to population change. The general population was growing at 1.7% per annum from 1923 to 1940, but the male population of labor-force age (20-54) was growing at 2.0%; female population, at a lower rate. The high rate of growth for male labor force was due to the arithmetic of the filling-in process as demographic recovery proceeded. (If annexation of the Hatay population in 1939 were included, the rates would be 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively.)

The withdrawal of manpower for the army was dramatically reduced as compared with earlier decades. During the wars, practically all rural males aged 20-45 were conscripted for long periods (four years with repeat call-ups was common). After the wars, conscription was reduced to two years, and even though the law obligated each man to serve, many exceptions were made. Farmers who increased their farm size to 50 hectares (a large farm) or 250 animals acquired exemption for two sons and a hired helper. Two-year universal conscription implied an army on the order of 250 to 300 thousand men judging by the size of the population cohorts, but the size of the army was reported to be only 162 thousand men in the 1927 census.

Qualitative gains in the labor force also were a factor. Population in the age range 20-54 of both sexes became more youthful during this period. The older scarred cohorts were aging out of the work force whereas full new cohorts were aging into it at the younger ages. Furthermore, as the population took on the characteristics of a high fertility pyramid, the youthfulness of the labor force was sustained. In addition, the sexual balance recovered from a preponderance of females to become the more usual one of slight male preponderance. Even if women work as effectively in the field as men, which was quite possible with



The Population of Turkey Afier the War of Independence 429

TABLE 4 Percentage of population living in urban places 1927 to 1950 a

Census population Percentage

Year (thousand) urban

1927 13,648 16.4 1935 16,158 16.9 1940 17,821 18.0 1945 18,790 18.3 1950 20,947 18.6

"Places with population 10,000 and over. Source: Censuses.

their long history in Turkish agriculture, they do have competing tasks. Child-

bearing, rearing, and household labor limit their full availability for farmwork. At seasons of peak labor demand, this is particularly apparent because men can

drop everything else, whereas women can only stretch themselves to work even harder in the fields or on the threshing floor.

With male labor input growing quantitatively at generally two percent in the

country, there was even faster growth of male labor in agriculture where the scars on the population had been the greatest. There was additional growth of labor input due to the quality factor, and no important shift of population from rural to urban. A slight urbanward move toward the end of the 1930s is notable as a likely consequence of hard times in agriculture coupled with growth of urban-based economic opportunities as an alternative (Table 4). Resources in the form of labor force did not move decisively out of agriculture until the 1950s, which lies beyond the present study.

Comparing 4% growth in agriculture with greater than 2% growth in labor

input, the driving force of the demographic factor is apparent. Because of a

particular conjuncture of technological and input conditions described by the

paradigm, the demographic conditions of 1923 are a compelling explanation of

Turkey's rapid agricultural expansion. Some residual remains unexplained. The test of the paradigm came in the 1940s. When Turkey mobilized its manpower for war but ended up remaining neutral, the expansion of agriculture stopped. The trend of expanding wheat cultivation levelled off and declined, recovering pre-mobilization levels only at the end of the 1940s. A curve fitted to the data for cultivated wheat land from 1940 to 1950 shows a zero rate of increase.

Wonmen '

Participation in the Econolmy: Agriculture

Women were already working in agriculture prior to the 1920s, but the extent of their participation and the type of tasks they performed are not clearly known. The literature of the wars carries praise for the contributions of women to farmwork. No concern was expressed about sex segration or "veiling" while

getting the job done (Yalman 1930, p. 237). After the wars, agricultural produc-




TABLE 5 Rural population aged 15 and over w,orking in agriculture, 1935 Census a

Males h Females h

Agriculture 2,718 (79) 2,696 (65) Other sectors 516 (15) 91 (2) Not working or unknown 221 (6) 1,374 (33) Rural population 3,455 (100) 4,161 (100)

"Places with population less than 10,000. Figures in thousands; parentheses indicate percentage of population.

Source: Turkey CSO 1937, pp. 332-33.

TABLE 6 Work hb rural women: Comparison by percentage of survey and census results, 1975

Village Rural

Occupation survey census"

Non-agricultural work 14 2

Agriculture 73 68

Homemaking 13 30 Total 100 100

"Places of less than 10,000 population. Source: Ozbay 1981, p. 166; Turkey State Institute of Statistics (SIS) 1982, pp. 126-127, 38-39.

tion expanded, for the reasons discussed above, without threat of diminishing returns. So there was no limit to the work that could be assigned to farm women other than the competition of non-farm tasks and the family's choice between work and leisure. In the low-income conditions of the period, it is doubtful that much leisure was chosen.

To measure the actual extent of women's participation in agriculture, the censuses are of some help but have limitations. According to the entire series of censuses from 1927 to the present, large proportions of adult women in rural

Turkey make agriculture their main occupation. The 1935 census, for example, shows that almost the same number of women worked as men (Table 5). This result derives directly from the rules of classification for the census: When the women's husband or household head is a farmer, she is mechanically classified as an agricultural worker unless some other main occupation is reported. The census rules probably express a valid insight, which is why the rules exist, but the numerical results are not genuine measures of work by women.

The census rules can be tested by comparing the census with some other enumeration that was open to different answers. For 1975, both a census and a

survey are available. They are not of use for the 1920s and 1930s but illustrate the point. Women in 25 villages distributed nationally were asked about the work that they do. Answers were classified by giving first chance to nonagricultural work, then agricultural work, and finally homemaking as a last resort. The

results, shown in Table 6, confirm that women work extensively in agriculture,




even when the classification system favors nonagricultural work. Mubeccel Kiray observed in the 1960s that rural women she studied in Cukurova (Adana) region knew how to do all the farm tasks, without exception (Hinderink and Kiray 1970).

Nonagricultural Employment of Women

Following independence, there was an increase of women's employment outside the agricultural sector. It happened in modern factory industry, in white-collar occupations, and in the professions, within both the private sector and government. No such trend had been noted before independence except that a moderate amount of female employment sprung up during the wars. Regarded by commentators as quite exceptional, female employment was encouraged by the war government and reinforced by formal organizations. In Istanbul, the Islamic Association for Employment of Ottoman Women was established in 1914 to find employment for women so that they could "earn income honestly and thereby be protected" (Toprak 1982, p. 314 ff.).

Demographic factors played a role on the supply side of female labor, leading to a willingness to seek employment and to press for income-earning opportunities in the Republican economic environment. The story of the 1920s and 1930s concerns a small number of women, compared with present-day employment of women, but the nonagricultural sectors where jobs could be sought were also small, although expanding. The analytic paradigm to explain the movement of women into the labor force has several demographic elements.

Female participation was favored in a general way by the sexual imbalance of the population. To support families, women would have to carry proportionately more of the burden. However, there was more to the demographic pressure than simple sex ratios. Although Turkey had not yet entered its demographic transition, fertility was low in the cities. This was an enabling condition because women who spend less time with pregnancies and child care can find more time for work outside the home. Reference to urban fertility is highly relevant to the analysis of nonagricultural employment because the jobs outside agriculture, and especially the ones that women obtained, were mainly urban.

The basic evidence concerning urban fertility refers to the early 1930s. It is the number of young children enumerated separately for urban and rural places in the 1935 census that implies the number of births during the immediately preceeding years. The births can be estimated approximately by assuming plausible rates of child mortality. This is done in Table 7 and shows that urban fertility was on the order of one-half that of rural fertility. While the computations refer to the early 1930s, the 1935 census data also imply a rural-urban differential extending back into the 1920s. The assumptions necessary to make long backwards estimates of differentials are tenuous, so quantification is restricted to the early 1930s.

Another demographic factor that enhanced the supply of female labor was the extraordinary level of widowhood in post-independence Turkey. The 1927 census counted approximately one million widows. The same was not true of men, who were fewer in number to begin with and who mostly remarried younger women after losing their spouses. Male widowers were only one-tenth as numerous as




TABLE 7 Urban-rural fertility differentials for the early 1930s based on the 1935 census age distributions

Proportion of Crude birth rate Corresponding population implied by infant total fertility

Division of the population under age 10 mortality rate (I MR) of 270 rate

Total Males .3344 Females .2963 54 71

Urban (> 10,000) Males .2106 Females .2202 33 (30)" 4.4 (3.9)

Rural (< 10,000) Males .3618 Females .3107 58 (59)" 7.7 (7.8)"

aEstimates are given of fertility that would result if an assumption of child mortality lower in urban than rural areas were used in the estimation procedure (IMRs of 200 and 290 per thousand respectively). It is known that urban child mortality was lower than rural by one-third or more from 1945 to the present (Shorter and Macura 1982, p. 9), so a similar assumption for the 1930s is entirely plausible. The results are shown within parentheses. Note. Column 1 shows the number of children enumerated in the 1935 census expressed as a

proportion of the total population. The fertility estimates (columns 2 and 3) are made by a standard demographic technique that is suitable for application to subdivisions of a national population. It is similar in principle to reverse-population projection. In this application, the infant mortality rate that is assumed is similar to that used for the reverse projections in Table 3. The method is explained in Demeny and Shorter (1968) and makes use of tabulations of stable population models for convenience in calculation (U.N. 1967, Ch 3B). Changes in the assumption about the general level of child mortality would affect the estimate of the overall level of fertility but would not affect the differentials significantly. Since the urban population of mothers in 1935 contained few immigrants, one can rule out misallocation of children between rural and urban areas as a measurement bias that would, in any event, tend to raise, not lower, estimates of urban fertility.

widows. Widowhood included young and middle-aged women as well as older women. The age pattern is confirmed by the 1935 census for which the widowhood data are given by age groups (Table 8). High proportions of widows meant that there was an increased number of female-headed households and more than

expected numbers of women living in the households of relatives. The inducement

(or pressure) to enter the economy is strongest in the urban areas, where more cash income is required for family support than in rural settings. With these

pressures, widows themselves had reason either to enter the economy or to take

charge of home tasks, freeing other women of the household to do so. The demographic factors refer to the supply side of female labor and must be

placed in a context that involves demand factors as well. Two different labor markets may be identified to cover a substantial portion of nonagricultural female employment. One market is for production workers in manufacturing industry. The other is for white-collar and professional workers. Each is considered separately.




TABLE 8 Widows in urban and rural places by age, 1935 a

Urban Rural

Ever-married Ever-married Age in 1935 Women Widows Percentage Women Widows Percentage

Under 30 192 7 4 1,130 24 2 30-39 185 18 10 931 59 6 40-49 139 39 28 628 152 24 50-59 102 53 52 460 230 50 60 and over 110 88 80 512 378 74 Totalh 728 205 28 3,661 844 23

a Figures in thousands.

hExcluding women of unknown age. All figures are computed from unrounded data and then rounded for presentation. Note: Illustrative of high widowhood rates in cities, 33% of ever-married women were widows in Istanbul in 1927. For men, it was 5%. The lower widowhood rates for rural areas are explained by remarriage of women after becoming widows. The agricultural setting makes it especially difficult for women to support themselves alone as widows, so stronger social pressures exist there than in cities for remarriage. However, as can be seen above, that strategy is only marginally successful. Men tend to marry much younger upon remarriage.

Manufacturing was a home industry, for the most part, prior to the 1920s, providing consumer goods such as textiles, rugs, garments, and all kinds of artisanal products. Home industry went into a decline during the 1920s because of the competition of foreign products and the disappearance of organizing enterprises headed by Greeks and other minorities. In the 1930s, there was a temporary revival due to tariff protection (prevented before 1929 by the Lausanne Treaty) and Turkish replacement of lost entrepreneurial skills. How-

ever, modern manufacturing was growing under the impetus of a state industrial

policy (etatism). the first modern textile mills were opened in 1925, and by 1938

they took over most of the internal market (West 1958, p. 42; Boratav 1981). Women worked in home industry, along with children and men. As factory

industry expanded, home-industry jobs were diminished, but women were recruited into the new expanding sector of manufacturing. It is unlikely that the same women lost employment in one place and gained it in another. While rural families suffered, urban families in the lower economic classes acquired new jobs. The 1927 industrial census, which counted workers at their workplaces, shows 38 thousand females at work in establishments of 4 or more workers, 26% of all

production workers. The largest concentration was in textiles, where 16 thousand female workers accounted for 52% of the work force. Distributions of the female work force by age indicate that women of a wide range of ages were employed, not merely young women for a few years prior to marriage. Indeed, to be married before accepting factory employment was considered desirable.

By any account, the extent of female participation in the new, mainly consumer-

goods industries of Turkey must be considered remarkable for a nominally sex-

segregated society. In addition to the demographic factors that translated into




TABLE 9 School enrollment and Graduates for primary Schools, 1929-30 to 1949-50'

Males Females

Enrollments and graduates 1929-30 1939-40 1949-50 1929-30 1939-40 1949-50

Enrollment 316 609 986 163 282 572

Population aged 7 to 11 616 1,191 1,237 636 1,143 1,149 Enrollment ratio 51% 51% 80% 26% 25% 50%

Graduates 16 54 119 6 21 51

Population aged 12 109 207 241 113 198 222 Graduates ratio 15% 26% 50% 6% 11% 23%

Graduates of secondary and higher schools

School level Secondary 2,497 9,550 8,123 899 3,492 3,219 Technical secondary -h 1,497 10,868 _h 1,072 2,367 Lycee 548 2,319 4,414 150 645 1,185 Higher institutions 566 1,253 2,468 38 287 657

aFigures in thousands. bNot available. Note: To minimize the influence of year-to-year fluctuations so that trends are revealed, all data are three-year averages centered on the dates shown. The enrollment data are from a special compilation, presumed to be comparable over time, from the 1953 Statistical Yearbook. The population denominators for the ratios come from the censuses after adjustment for age misreporting and from the reverse projections of the present study.

economic pressures on the supply side, there was the legitimizing influence of

prior women's work in home and cottage industry. Also, there was the limited wartime experience in Istanbul, and the generally more "open" texture of the

large-city environments. Finally, Greek and other minority women were with- drawn from the labor market, so they were not available to compete for jobs when the demand for factory labor arose. Although the precise impact of

demographic factors cannot be calibrated, the configuration of forces outlined here suggests they were important. It may be significant that after all the changes that have occurred since the 1920s and 1930s, women's employment in the

manufacturing sector today (1975 population census) accounts for only 18% of

production jobs, though the number employed has increased (to 242 thousand women) with the growth of the sector itself.

The second labor market covers a broad range of white-collar and professional workers, most of them urban. This market is middle and upper class, and entry requires education. To account for women's employment in this market, another factor in addition to growth of production in the sector of employment must be introduced. Education, the intermediate long-term factor that opens the way for

employment of the middle and upper classes, was given a high priority by the

Republic. The results are shown in Tables 9 and 10. Until women entered the educational system, very little middle- and upper-class employment was possible.




TABLE 10 University graduates, 1920-1938

Percentage Year first Field Males Females Females female graduated

Law 2,915 313 10 1924 Science and mathematics 329 241 42 1921 Medicinea 3,343 234 7 1924 Letters 212 224 51 1920 Teaching 554 133 19 1932 Other 3,326 107 3 1932 Total 10,679 1,252 10

aIncludes medicine, pharmacology, and dentistry. Istanbul University graduated 61 women medical doctors out of a total of 1,864 medical doctors (3 percent). The first woman medical doctor was graduated in 1927. Source: 1937-38 Statistical Yearbook, pp. 449-452.

During the wars, only a small number of women had taken government posts in the postal and nursing services.

Though education was nominally open to all, facilities were located mainly in the cities. Consequently, when interpreting the national statistics (Table 9), the use of national population denominators overstates schooling in rural areas and understates the educational accomplishments of the cities. Istanbul was the great center, where approximately 75% of girls attended primary school (estimated from provincial enrollment data for 1929-30 and population estimates from the reverse projections for the age group 7 to 11). Approximately the same number of boys as girls were enrolled in primary schools in Istanbul. Izmir and Bursa were not far behind, and other cities were, to varying degrees, centers of education.

To present generations, it will not seem remarkable that families availed themselves of educational opportunities for their daughters and supported some of them for long periods of schooling. For young women in the 1920s, however, this was a new mode of preparation. The parent generation had learned in the difficult economic times of post-independence Turkey that women often had to contribute to the support of their families by falling back on their own earning capabilities. Thus, in urban Turkey, helping daughters equip for a future that no one could predict was an idea born out of the struggle for a living that Turkish women themselves were experiencing.

Concurrent with the educational expansion, there was a rapid rise in demand for Turkish workers with educational qualifications. A contributory factor was the withdrawal of minorities, previously important suppliers of trained personnel. In addition, the new policies of the Republic were expanding the government services, and the demand for workers from private commerce and industry was also rising. Women could compete successfully for a share of employment because of the general scarcity of skills that plagued the Republic in its early years, but their progress was limited by the limited number of educated women.




TABLE IWomen's white-collar and

professional employment, 1927 to 1945 a

Percentage Year Males Females female

1927 133 9 6 1935 380 18 5 1945 661 32 5

a Figures in thousands. Note: Census definitions and categories are not fully comparable over time: 1927, sum of liberal professions, func- tionaries (memur), magistrates, and post and telegraph employees; 1935 and 1945, sum of liberal professions, public services, and administration.

Already by 1929-30, women filled 5,030 teaching posts. By 1939-40, the number was 7,950, including 131 at the university level (13% of the university staff). Women were employed in banking, communications, and government service, including the judiciary branch. A general view of the initial uptake of women in white-collar and professional work is shown by the population censuses (Table 11). Like the educational facilities that women attended to qualify for these jobs, the work was located largely in the cities. The only important exception was primary-school teaching. Istanbul employed 40% of all the women

nationally employed in 1927 in white-collar and professional jobs. In the social classes of the cities where women were given education, especially

at the higher levels, controlled fertility in the parents' as well as daughter's generations was undoubtedly of great importance. It is known from studies at later dates that education is strongly associated with fertility differentials in

Turkey (Timur 1977). When this enabling condition is combined with the economic pressures, including widowhood, of post-independence Turkey, the enrollment of daughters in schools and their subsequent entry into the labor market are understood. Attention is paid in other studies to the emancipation of women or to processes of class stratification and protection that may have drawn women into the highest-ranking professions (Tekeli 1981; Oncu 1981), but it is suggested here that the demographic factors were also important.

DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS IN SOCIAL CHANGE

These notes have emphasized the particular demographic conditions that obtained in the early years of post-independence Turkey. They are quantified and set out in some detail for the period. The influence of these factors on social

change is illustrated by referring to two aspects of social and economic history: agricultural development and the participation of women in the economy during the first two decades or so of the Republic. These illustrations by no means exhaust the potential for taking into account the intertwining of demographic factors with the process of social change. Demographic conditions are not




constants. They change powerfully over time, with built-in time lags, playing determinative roles in what has happened and what is going to happen.

POPULATION COUNCIL

WEST ASIA AND NORTH AFRICA

CAIRO

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I want to acknowledge the collaboration of Belgin Tekce and the valuable suggestions of Mubbecel Kiray, Caglar Keyder, and Leila Bisharat.

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APPENDIX

Reverse Population Projection

The technique of reverse population projection is most often used in demographic

analysis to estimate fertility levels for periods of time prior to a census (or survey). It can

also be used to reconstruct the whole population at dates earlier or intermediate of

existing censuses. The technique is explained first by a mathematical statement; then, the

data requirements are discussed. The explanation given below is extracted in part from a technical publication by Shorter and Macura (1982, pp. 101-6).

Mathematical Statement

The basic element of a population projection is a group of persons whose common

identification is their sex and period of birth. They form a birth cohort, which for

convenience in calculations is defined as a five-year cohort. A reverse projection is made

by reverse surviving each cohort separately back through time, in cycles of five years. Each cycle is a separate reverse projection providing the starting point for the next five




years. The projection keeps track of each cohort separately as it is increased by reverse survival (deaths are restored to the population), by reversing in- and out-migrations, and by removing cohorts from the population as the cohorts are carried back to birth. Cohorts are designated as follows for each five year cycle:

Cohort Age at Age at index (c) year -5 year 0

0 Born 0-4 1 0-4 5-9 2 5-9 10-14 3 10-14 15-19 4 15-19 20-24 5 20-24 25-29 6 25-29 30-34 7 30-34 35-39 8 35-39 40-44 9 40-44 45-49

10 45-49 50-54 11 50-54 55-59 12 55-59 60-64 13 60-64 65-69 14 65-69 70-74 15 70-74 75-79 16 75+ 80+

The reverse-survival equation, omitting migration for the moment, is as follows:

C,5 = CO?/S,, (c = 0,16; migration = 0) .S , ' , .,' (1)

where C is the five-year birth cohort, s stands for sex (male or female), c stands for the cohort index number, and S is the five-year survival rate. The superscript, 0 or -5, refers to the date in years.

When the reverse-survival equation is applied to the youngest birth cohort, c = 0, the result is a quantity of births, B, during the five-year period:

B C-5 s s,o (2)

At the upper end of the age distribution the two age groups 75-79 and 80+ are combined into 75+ in the initial data for year 0. In order to reverse-project this uppermost age group, the two cohorts that it contains (15 and 16) must be split out separately. The reverse-survival equation cannot be applied to cohorts 15 and 16 until this splitting has been performed.

In the absence of other information, the proportion of the life-table population age 75+ that is aged 75-79 is used as the basis for splitting:

C,. 5 = [5L75/ (5L75 + To)] 1 A

CO - A - C? ., 16 .A , 15

(3)

(4)

where 5L75 and T80 are life-table notations that refer respectively to person-years lived in the age interval 75-80 and from 80 years of age to the end of life. The notation A refers to the size of the given population that is aged 75+ at the base year of the projection (year 0).




The assumption of a stationary life-table age distribution at the uppermost ages is usually incorrect in applied work because mortality and fertility were neither equal nor constant in the past. Migration causes additional derivations from the stationary pattern. Nevertheless, for short reverse projections, such as five or ten years, an incorrect assumption about age structure at the highest ages will have a negligible effect on estimates of recent demographic rates (e.g., CBR and CDR). For longer reverse projections, however, the cumulative effect of error over a number of five-year cycles is a matter of concern.

A second approach to splitting the uppermost age group is to utilize independent information from a census at date -5 years concerning the actual distribution of population above age 70. This approach may be used when suitable data are available; in the present instance they are not, so the mathematical explanation is omitted.

An additional complexity is migration, which is included in the general formulation of the reverse projection. Since migration is not known in detail and is not considered in the reverse projection from 1935 to 1922, this addition to the mathematical statement is also omitted here.

Various fertility indices are calculated from the resulting projection. Total births are the sum of births by sex given by equation (2). The crude birth rate is total births divided by the geometric mean of population at dates 0 and -5.

Age-specific fertility rates are calculated by introducing independent information about the distribution of childbearing by age of woman. The independent data are a model age-specific fertility schedule or a representative schedule from the population itself, expressed as rates or as a percentage distribution across the age range of 15-49. The schedule is denoted by F,* where the index, i, refers to the 7 five-year age groups from 15 to 49. The shape of the schedule, not its level, is used to distribute births by age of woman and thus to estimate the age-specific fertility rates. Consequently, any reasonable schedule can serve this purpose.

A preliminary step is to calculate the geometric mean of women in each age group from 15 to 49, W8i. A trial number of births, B*, is then calculated as follows:

B*=5- (Fj WF ) (5) i=1

Since the age-specific fertility rates, F*i, are not the actual ones, they must be revised

by a multiplier k, which brings B* into agreement with B.

k = B/B* (6)

F- = k F (i = 1,7) (7)

The total fertility rate, TFR, is the sum of the age-specific rates:

TFR = 5 Z F (8)

Data Requirements

The minimum set of information needed for a reverse projection includes a distribution of the population by age and sex, and assumptions about mortality over the period of the reverse projection. In a reverse projection, the number of births is reconstructed from information on the number of survivors in the current population distribution and the




past mortality rate. Therefore, no fertility assumptions are necessary. Nevertheless, the results include numbers of births and various fertility indices.

The reverse projection is made by five-year age groups in steps of five years, going back in time as far as necessary. If the final data do not happen to be a multiple of 5 years from the base date, interpolation between two 5-year dates on either side will give the desired result. This procedure was used to make the reverse projections to 1927 and 1922 from 1935.

The minimum data take the form of the following: (1) an age distribution for each sex in five-year groups from age 0 to an open-ended interval 75+; (2) a set of life table survival rates for each sex for each five-year reverse projection period. These are normally selected from model life tables.

In order to calculate total fertility rates from the fertility information given by the projection, a distribution of childbearing by age of woman is also given. A natural fertility schedule adjusted for the proportions of women married at each age (1935) is used here. This step is not a necessary one in reverse projection, but adds to the results one more piece of information (the total fertility rate).

GLOSSARY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TERMS

Cohort. A group of individuals identified by having experienced the same event during a specified period. For example, members of a birth cohort are all born during the same period and belong at every date thereafter to a specified age group that becomes older each year.

Crude birth rate (CBR). The number of births in a population during a specified period divided by the number of person-years lived by the population during the same period. CBR is frequently expressed as yearly births per 1,000 population.

Crude death rate (CDR). The number of deaths in a population during a specified period divided by the number of person-years lived by the population during the same period. CDR is frequently expressed as yearly deaths per 1,000 population.

Expectation of life at birth. The average number of years that members of a cohort of births would be expected to live if the cohort were subject to a particular set of mortality rates by age; usually stated in the form of a life table.

Infant mortality rate (IMR). The number of children dying under one year of age divided by the number of children born in the same cohort. The rate is usually expressed per 1,000 births and calculated for a one-year cohort of births.

Rate of natural increase. The difference between the number of births and deaths during a specified period of time divided by the number of person-years lived by the population during the same period. This rate, which excludes changes due to migration, is the difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate.

Stable population. A population exposed for a long time to constant fertility and mortality rates, and closed to migration. These conditions produce a fixed age distribution and a constant rate of growth.

Stationary population. A stable population that has a zero growth rate, with equal and constant numbers of births and deaths per year. A stationary population's age structure is determined by the mortality rates by age.

Totalfertility rate (TFR). The average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to the current set of fertility rates by age of women.



Documents

Shorter, After War of Ind