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Simulation
Simulation
A simulation takes a set of data and project it over time using a formula.
Sales forCustomer A
Sales forCustomer B
TIME
Today Next Year Two Years
Sales forCustomer A
Sales forCustomer B
Sales forCustomer A
Sales forCustomer B
Formula
Main Concepts
There are 4 main components: Elements (the data)
› Products, Customers, …
Time› January, February, …
Formula› Sales February = Sales January + Sales January * 0.5)
Component = <Elements, Time, Formula>› Component Sales
› Component Expenses
› Component Results
Sales Expenses
Results
In order to simulate the Results it is necessary to simulate the Sales and the Expenses
Elements / Time / FormulaComponent
January February March …
Apple 1 1.5 …
Banana
Orange
TimeElements
Formula: Sales February = Sales January + Sales January * 0.5)
ComponentA simulation component is one of these tables where the values are calculated.
Parameters
In order to obtain more interesting formulas we will need parameters:
Sales February = Sales January + Sales January * growth index)
Multidimensional Parameters
The parameters must have the possibility of changing their values between products, months, etc. growth index (Apple) = 0.5 growth index (Banana) = 0.6
The use of combinations must be possible: growth index (Apple, January) = 0.55 growth index (Banana, January) = 0.65
Order of resolution
To solve the order of resolution the concept of scope must be introduced: Parameter: growth index
› 1 Find by: Product, Month› 2 Find by: Product
growth index (Apple) = 0.5 growth index (Apple, January) = 0.55
Life Cycle
1. Definition (Components, Formulas, etc.)
2. Execution (Store the results in database)
3. View Results (O3)
1
3 Database
CPU 2
Parameters maintenance
The parameters tables, and maintenance applications are automatically generated (if it is necessary) from the simulation definition.
Other Things
Metadata about Simulation Repository for such Metadata Component dependencies Versions of parameters “Escenario” (Spanish) O3 Analysis:
Graphs, Rules, Query, Scorecards, Reports, …
Web Access ….
Why not Excel ?
The first solution to this problem may be Excel, but …
Excel Problems
There is no Metadata or Repository Elements may be rows Time may be columns Formulas
› $A45 + F18 ??, what is that ?
Storage of results, Excel ? Parameters ? Excel dependencies ?
$A45 + F18 + ‘C:\My Documents\Accounts.xls!Banking…
Versioning, “Escenario” management ?